PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSIONS FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 300 PM EDT FRI JUN 29 2007 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK VALID FOR JUL 05 - 09 2007 TODAYS NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH ALL SOLUTIONS DEPICTING A MODERATE AMPLITUDE 500-HPA PATTERN OVER THE MOST OF THE FORECAST DOMAIN. THE MAIN FEATURES ARE A MODERATELY STRONG CLOSED LOW LOCATED SOUTH OF ALASKA... A TROUGH OVER EASTERN CANADA... A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHWEST CONUS... AND WEAK TO MODERATE RIDGING OVER THE BERING SEA. MODEL CONTINUITY IS GOOD AMONG TODAYS MODEL SOLUTIONS AND THEIR RESPECTIVE SOLUTIONS FROM YESTERDAY. THE RESULTING PATTERN STRONGLY FAVORS ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS UNDERNEATH MODERATELY STRONG POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWEST U.S. FLOW AROUND THE BASE OF THIS RIDGE SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO DRAW GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE WESTWARD... WHICH WOULD RESULT IN NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION AND NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CONUS... WITH THE PRECIPITATION EXTENDING TO PARTS OF THE SOUTHWEST MONSOON REGION. DOWNSTREAM OF THIS RIDGE... THE TROUGH OVER EASTERN CANADA IS LIKELY TO USHER IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST WITH NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION ANTICIPATED FOR THESE SAME REGIONS. NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY FOR MOST OF THE SOUTHEAST TO THE SOUTH OF THIS TROUGH AND ITS ASSOCIATED JET ENERGY. WARMER AND DRIER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY FOR WESTERN ALASKA CLOSE TO THE BERING SEA RIDGE WHILE ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY FOR SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE UNDERNEATH ANOMALOUS SOUTHWESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW. TODAYS OFFICIAL 500-HPA BLEND CONSISTS OF 20 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...30 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...25 PERCENT OF TODAY'S CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...AND 25 PERCENT OF TODAY'S EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 7. MODEL(S) OF THE DAY: 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN. FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD IS ABOVE AVERAGE... 4 ON A SCALE OF 1 TO 5... DUE TO RELATIVELY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT. THE 6-10 DAY TEMPERATURE PROG IS BASED ON THE KLEIN AND ANALOG SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLENDED HEIGHT FIELD... THE CPC AUTOMATED FORECAST... AND THE CDC REFORECAST. THE 6-10 DAY PRECIPITATION PROG IS BASED ON THE ANALOG AND NEURAL NET SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLENDED HEIGHT FIELD... NEURAL NET PROBABILITIES FROM THE GFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS... CALIBRATED PRECIPITATION FROM THE 0Z AND 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS... THE CPC AUTOMATED FORECAST... AND THE CDC REFORECAST. 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JUL 07 - 13 2007: FOR WEEK 2 THE ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS ARE IN FAIR TO GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE MAIN 500-HPA CIRCULATION FEATURES ALTHOUGH THE CANADIAN MEAN IS A BIT LESS AMPLIFIED THAN THE GFS. IN GENERAL... THE MODELS SHOW A DEAMPLIFICATION AND RETROGRESSION OF THE PATTERN DEPICTED FOR THE 6 TO 10 DAY FORECAST PERIOD. THE ENSEMBLE MEANS DEPICT A WEAK TO MODERATE TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND NEAR SOUTHWESTERN ALASKA AND A RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWEST CONUS. MODEL CONTINUITY IS GOOD WITH THE TREND IN THE GFS SHOWING A DEAMPLIFYING OVERALL PATTERN WITH RESPECT TO THEIR SOLUTIONS OF THE PAST TWO DAYS. THE RESULTING PATTERN FAVORS ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE SOUTHWEST RIDGE. RETURN FLOW AROUND THIS RIDGE MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO TRANSPORT GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE TO MUCH OF THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CONUS... RESULTING IN ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THIS REGION. NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION ARE ALSO LIKELY FOR MUCH OF THE GREAT LAKES/NORTHEAST NEAR THE FORECAST POSITION OF THE DOWNSTREAM TROUGH. ALASKA IS GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BE WARMER THAN NORMAL WITH NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION UNDERNEATH POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES. THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY HEIGHT PROG CONSISTS OF 20 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...30 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...AND 50 PERCENT OF TODAY'S CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11. FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD IS AVERAGE... 3 ON A SCALE OF 1 TO 5. THE 8-14 DAY TEMPERATURE PROG IS BASED ON THE KLEIN AND ANALOG SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLENDED HEIGHT FIELD... THE CPC AUTOMATED FORECAST... AND THE CDC REFORECAST. THE 8-14 DAY PRECIPITATION PROG IS BASED ON THE ANALOG AND NEURAL NET SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLENDED HEIGHT FIELD... NEURAL NET PROBABILITIES FROM THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS... CALIBRATED PRECIPITATION FROM THE 0Z AND 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS... THE CPC AUTOMATED FORECAST... AND THE CDC REFORECAST. FORECASTER: S. HANDEL NOTES: OPERATIONAL CHANGE: AS OF JULY 5 2005 SHADED MAPS HAVE REPLACED THE CONTOUR-ONLY MAPS ON THE CPC WEB SITE. THE CONTOURED MAPS ARE STILL AVAILABLE AT THEIR CURRENT FILE NAMES - SO DIRECT-LINKED USERS ARE NOT AFFECTED. AWIPS GRAPHICS ARE ALSO NOT AFFECTED BY THIS CHANGE. AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OTHERWISE - FORECASTS INCORPORATE FORECASTER INPUT. THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION. THE NARRATIVE DESCRIPTION OF THE FORECAST PATTERNS FOR TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION FOR BOTH THE 6-10 OR 8-14 DAY PERIODS HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. THE STATE TABLES FOR BOTH THE 6-10 AND 8-14 DAY PERIODS ARE NOW CONTAINED IN THIS MESSAGE...AVAILABLE AS PMDMRD ON AWIPS. THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1971-2000 BASE PERIOD MEANS FOR TEMPERATURE...PRECIPITATION...AND 500-HPA HEIGHTS AS REFERENCE IN THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS. THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON JULY 19. A REVISED MONTHLY WILL BE ISSUED ON JUNE 30. NEW NOTE EFFECTIVE MAR 16 2004: THE GLOSSARY FORMERLY FOUND AT THIS LOCATION WILL NO LONGER BE TRANSMITTED AS PART OF THIS MESSAGE. IF YOU WISH TO SEE THE DEFINITIONS OF TERMS USED IN THESE MESSAGES... PLEASE GO TO THE CPC WEB PAGE AT (USE LOWER CASE) HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV AND FOLLOW THE APPROPRIATE LINKS. ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3) FOR THE REGION FROM 20N to 70N LATITUDE AND 175E to 60W LONGITUDE INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 19900628 - 19540704 - 19710619 - 19890629 - 19900623 ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4) FOR THE REGION FROM 20N to 70N LATITUDE AND 175E to 60W LONGITUDE INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 19900628 - 19710619 - 19540704 - 19890629 - 19710614 6 to 10 day Outlook Table OUTLOOK FOR JUL 05 - 09, 2007 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON A B OREGON A B NRN CALIF A B SRN CALIF A N IDAHO A N NEVADA A N W MONTANA A B E MONTANA A B WYOMING A N UTAH A N ARIZONA A N COLORADO N N NEW MEXICO N N N DAKOTA N B S DAKOTA N B NEBRASKA N N KANSAS N N OKLAHOMA B N N TEXAS B A S TEXAS B A W TEXAS B A MINNESOTA N N IOWA N B MISSOURI N N ARKANSAS N N LOUISIANA N N WISCONSIN B N ILLINOIS N N MISSISSIPPI N N MICHIGAN B N INDIANA B N OHIO B N KENTUCKY N N TENNESSEE N N ALABAMA N N NEW YORK B A VERMONT B A NEW HAMP B A MAINE B A MASS B A CONN B A RHODE IS B A PENN B N NEW JERSEY N A W VIRGINIA N N MARYLAND N N DELAWARE N N VIRGINIA N N N CAROLINA N N S CAROLINA N N GEORGIA N N FL PNHDL A N FL PENIN A N AK N SLOPE A B AK ALEUTIAN A B AK WESTERN A B AK INT BSN A B AK S INT A N AK SO COAST A A AK PNHDL N A 8 to 14 day Outlook Table OUTLOOK FOR JUL 07 - 13, 2007 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON A B OREGON A B NRN CALIF A B SRN CALIF A N IDAHO A B NEVADA A N W MONTANA N B E MONTANA N N WYOMING N N UTAH A N ARIZONA N N COLORADO N N NEW MEXICO N N N DAKOTA N N S DAKOTA N N NEBRASKA N N KANSAS N N OKLAHOMA B N N TEXAS B A S TEXAS B A W TEXAS B A MINNESOTA N N IOWA N N MISSOURI N N ARKANSAS N N LOUISIANA N N WISCONSIN B N ILLINOIS N N MISSISSIPPI N N MICHIGAN B A INDIANA N N OHIO N N KENTUCKY N N TENNESSEE N N ALABAMA N N NEW YORK N A VERMONT N A NEW HAMP N A MAINE N A MASS N A CONN N N RHODE IS N N PENN N N NEW JERSEY N N W VIRGINIA N N MARYLAND N N DELAWARE N N VIRGINIA N N N CAROLINA N N S CAROLINA A N GEORGIA N N FL PNHDL A N FL PENIN A N AK N SLOPE A B AK ALEUTIAN A B AK WESTERN A B AK INT BSN A N AK S INT A N AK SO COAST A N AK PNHDL N N LEGEND TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN B - BELOW B - BELOW THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS PMDMRD. $$