PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSIONS FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 300 PM EDT MON JUN 25 2007 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK VALID FOR JUL 01 - 05 2007 TODAYS NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE EXPECTED 500-HPA FLOW PATTERN OVER THE FORECAST DOMAIN. A MODERATELY AMPLIFIED PATTERN IS DEPICTED BY MOST MODELS WITH TROUGHS LOCATED OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA AND CANADIAN MARITIMES AND RIDGES OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL CONUS AND SOUTHWEST OF THE ALEUTIANS. MODEL CONTINUITY IS GENERALLY GOOD WITH THE TREND IN THE GFS BEING TO DEAMPLIFY THE TROUGH OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. THIS TREND IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY THE MODEL SOLUTIONS FROM THE OTHER CENTERS WITH YESTERDAYS 12Z ECMWF MEAN IN CLOSE ALIGNMENT WITH YESTERDAYS 12Z GFS MEAN AND TODAYS 0Z CANADIAN MEAN IN CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH TODAYS 0Z GFS MEAN. THE MOST RECENT MODEL SOLUTIONS WERE WEIGHTED THE MOST HEAVILY WITH ENSEMBLE MEMBERS FROM TODAYS 0Z AND 6Z RUNS COMPRISING 70 PERCENT OF THE OFFICIAL 500-HPA BLEND. THE RESULTING 500-HPA FORECAST PATTERN FAVORS NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURE FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST DOMAIN WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS OWING IN LARGE PART TO THE RELATIVELY STRONG RIDGE EXPECTED OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL CONUS. RETURN FLOW AROUND THIS RIDGE FAVORS THE TRANSPORT OF MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO NORTHWESTWARD TO SOUTHERN TEXAS RESULTING IN ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION SOME MODERATION OF TEMPERATURES FOR THIS REGION. AHEAD OF THIS RIDGE... DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT OF THE CONUS WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES LIKELY FOR NEW ENGLAND... NEW YORK STATE... AND PARTS OF THE MID ATLANTIC UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE TROUGH OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED FOR THE FAR WESTERN CONUS AS THE TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA IS PROGGED TO REMAIN RELATIVELY FAR OFFSHORE AND MONSOONAL MOISTURE IS LIKELY TO REMAIN FURTHER TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE REGION. ALASKA IS EXPECTED TO BE HAVE NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES UNDERNEATH WEAK POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES WITH NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION AS THE MEAN 500-HPA JET IS EXPECTED TO BE LOCATED MOSTLY TO THE SOUTH OF THE STATE. TODAYS OFFICIAL 500-HPA BLEND CONSISTS OF 20 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...30 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...20 PERCENT OF TODAY'S CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...AND 30 PERCENT OF TODAY'S EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 7. MODEL(S) OF THE DAY: 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN AND 12Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN (TIED). FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD IS ABOVE AVERAGE... 4 ON A SCALE OF 1 TO 5... DUE TO GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT AND GOOD AGREEMENT OF THE FORECAST TOOLS. THE 6-10 DAY TEMPERATURE PROG IS BASED ON THE KLEIN AND ANALOG SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLENDED HEIGHT FIELD... THE CPC AUTOMATED FORECAST... THE CDC REFORECAST... AND TELECONNECTIONS FROM NEGATIVE ANOMALY CENTERS AT 44N 58W AND 44N 146W AND A POSITIVE ANOMALY CENTER AT 47N 103W. THE 6-10 DAY PRECIPITATION PROG IS BASED ON THE ANALOG AND NEURAL NET SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLENDED HEIGHT FIELD... NEURAL NET PROBABILITIES FROM THE GFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS... CALBRATED PRECIPITATION FROM THE 0Z AND 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS... THE CPC AUTOMATED FORECAST... AND THE CDC REFORECAST... AND TELECONNECTIONS FROM NEGATIVE ANOMALY CENTERS AT 44N 58W AND 44N 146W AND A POSITIVE ANOMALY CENTER AT 47N 103W. 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JUL 03 - 09 2007: TODAYS WEEK 2 GFS MODEL OUTLOOKS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND GENERALLY REPRESENT A RETROGRESSION OF THEIR RESPECTIVE 6 TO 10 DAY SOLUTIONS. A MODERATELY STRONG RIDGE IS DEPICTED OVER THE ROCKIES WHILE TROUGHS ARE FORECAST OVER THE PACIFIC OCEAN SOUTH OF ALASKA AND OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS. THE CANADIAN MEAN IS AN OUTLIER IN DEPICTING A MOSTLY ZONAL PATTERN OVER THE CONUS AND WAS MOSTLY DISCOUNTED IN TODAYS OFFICIAL HEIGHT BLEND. THE RESULTING 500-HPA BLEND FAVORS ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE ROCKIES RIDGE. RETURN FLOW AROUND THIS RIDGE IS FAVORABLE FOR TRANSPORTING GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE FURTHER WESTWARD THAN DURING THE 6 TO 10 DAY PERIOD... PERHAPS AS FAR WEST AS NEW MEXICO AND COLORADO. MEANWHILE, THE RETROGRESSION OF THE NORTHEASTERN TROUGH FAVORS EXTENDING BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FROM NEW ENGLAND WESTWARD TO THE GREAT LAKES AND UPPER MIDWEST. MOST OF THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY SHOULD BE DRIER THAN NORMAL WITH THE EXCEPTION OF NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND CLOSER TO THE EXPECTED POSITION OF THE TROUGH. NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION ARE EXPECTED FOR ALASKA UNDERNEATH WEAK POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES. THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY HEIGHT PROG CONSISTS OF 30 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...40 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...20 PERCENT OF TODAY'S GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...AND 10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11. FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD IS AVERAGE... 3 ON A SCALE OF 1 TO 5. THE 8-14 DAY TEMPERATURE PROG IS BASED ON THE KLEIN AND ANALOG SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLENDED HEIGHT FIELD... THE CPC AUTOMATED FORECAST... THE CDC REFORECAST... AND TELECONNECTIONS FROM NEGATIVE ANOMALY CENTERS AT 46N 71W AND 45N 146W AND A POSITIVE ANOMALY CENTER AT 48N 117W. THE 8-14 DAY PRECIPITATION PROG IS BASED ON THE ANALOG AND NEURAL NET SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLENDED HEIGHT FIELD... NEURAL NET PROBABILITIES FROM THE GFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS... CALBRATED PRECIPITATION FROM THE 0Z AND 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS... THE CPC AUTOMATED FORECAST... AND THE CDC REFORECAST... AND TELECONNECTIONS FROM NEGATIVE ANOMALY CENTERS AT 46N 71W AND 45N 146W AND A POSITIVE ANOMALY CENTER AT 48N 117W. FORECASTER: S. HANDEL NOTES: OPERATIONAL CHANGE: AS OF JULY 5 2005 SHADED MAPS HAVE REPLACED THE CONTOUR-ONLY MAPS ON THE CPC WEB SITE. THE CONTOURED MAPS ARE STILL AVAILABLE AT THEIR CURRENT FILE NAMES - SO DIRECT-LINKED USERS ARE NOT AFFECTED. AWIPS GRAPHICS ARE ALSO NOT AFFECTED BY THIS CHANGE. AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OTHERWISE - FORECASTS INCORPORATE FORECASTER INPUT. THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION. THE NARRATIVE DESCRIPTION OF THE FORECAST PATTERNS FOR TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION FOR BOTH THE 6-10 OR 8-14 DAY PERIODS HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. THE STATE TABLES FOR BOTH THE 6-10 AND 8-14 DAY PERIODS ARE NOW CONTAINED IN THIS MESSAGE...AVAILABLE AS PMDMRD ON AWIPS. THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1971-2000 BASE PERIOD MEANS FOR TEMPERATURE...PRECIPITATION...AND 500-HPA HEIGHTS AS REFERENCE IN THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS. THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON JULY 19. A REVISED MONTHLY WILL BE ISSUED ON JUNE 30. NEW NOTE EFFECTIVE MAR 16 2004: THE GLOSSARY FORMERLY FOUND AT THIS LOCATION WILL NO LONGER BE TRANSMITTED AS PART OF THIS MESSAGE. IF YOU WISH TO SEE THE DEFINITIONS OF TERMS USED IN THESE MESSAGES... PLEASE GO TO THE CPC WEB PAGE AT (USE LOWER CASE) HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV AND FOLLOW THE APPROPRIATE LINKS. ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3) FOR THE REGION FROM 20N to 70N LATITUDE AND 175E to 60W LONGITUDE INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 19770605 - 19890702 - 19900701 - 19850709 - 19610701 ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4) FOR THE REGION FROM 20N to 70N LATITUDE AND 175E to 60W LONGITUDE INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 19770605 - 19890702 - 19710620 - 19610630 - 19900701 6 to 10 day Outlook Table OUTLOOK FOR JUL 01 - 05, 2007 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON A N OREGON A N NRN CALIF A N SRN CALIF A N IDAHO A N NEVADA A N W MONTANA A N E MONTANA A B WYOMING A N UTAH A N ARIZONA A N COLORADO A B NEW MEXICO N N N DAKOTA A B S DAKOTA A B NEBRASKA A B KANSAS A B OKLAHOMA N B N TEXAS N N S TEXAS N A W TEXAS N N MINNESOTA A B IOWA A B MISSOURI A B ARKANSAS A B LOUISIANA N N WISCONSIN A B ILLINOIS A B MISSISSIPPI A N MICHIGAN N B INDIANA A B OHIO N B KENTUCKY A B TENNESSEE A B ALABAMA A N NEW YORK B B VERMONT B B NEW HAMP B B MAINE B N MASS B B CONN B B RHODE IS B B PENN B B NEW JERSEY B B W VIRGINIA N B MARYLAND B B DELAWARE B B VIRGINIA N B N CAROLINA N B S CAROLINA A B GEORGIA A N FL PNHDL A N FL PENIN A N AK N SLOPE N B AK ALEUTIAN N B AK WESTERN A B AK INT BSN A B AK S INT A N AK SO COAST A N AK PNHDL N N 8 to 14 day Outlook Table OUTLOOK FOR JUL 03 - 09, 2007 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON A N OREGON A N NRN CALIF A N SRN CALIF A N IDAHO A N NEVADA A N W MONTANA A N E MONTANA A B WYOMING A N UTAH A N ARIZONA A N COLORADO N N NEW MEXICO N A N DAKOTA N B S DAKOTA N B NEBRASKA B N KANSAS B N OKLAHOMA N N N TEXAS N A S TEXAS N A W TEXAS N A MINNESOTA B B IOWA B B MISSOURI B N ARKANSAS N N LOUISIANA N N WISCONSIN B B ILLINOIS B B MISSISSIPPI N B MICHIGAN B N INDIANA B B OHIO B B KENTUCKY B B TENNESSEE N B ALABAMA N B NEW YORK B N VERMONT B A NEW HAMP B A MAINE B A MASS B N CONN B N RHODE IS B N PENN B B NEW JERSEY B N W VIRGINIA B B MARYLAND B B DELAWARE B N VIRGINIA B B N CAROLINA N B S CAROLINA N B GEORGIA N B FL PNHDL N B FL PENIN N B AK N SLOPE A B AK ALEUTIAN A B AK WESTERN A B AK INT BSN A N AK S INT A N AK SO COAST A N AK PNHDL N N LEGEND TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN B - BELOW B - BELOW THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS PMDMRD. $$