PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSIONS FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 300 PM EDT MON JUN 18 2007 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK VALID FOR JUN 24 - 28 2007 TODAYS ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE EXPECTED FLOW PATTERN FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD. A SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE INTERIOR SOUTHWEST IS EXPECTED TO DOMINATE THE SOUTHERN CONUS WHILE FAST ZONAL FLOW IS FORCAST TO DOMINATE THE NORTHERN PART OF THE COUNTRY. THE SOUTHWEST RIDGE IS FORECAST TO EXTEND NORTHEASTWARD TO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. TROUGHS ARE EXPECTED OVER NORTHERN ALASKA... EXTENDING SOUTHEASTWARD TO THE GULF OF ALASKA... AND OVER NORTHERN HUDSON BAY EXTENDING SOUTHEASTWARD TO OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN IS SOMEWHAT MORE AMPLIFIED WITH THE TROUGH FORECAST OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC COMPARED TO THE OTHER ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS. THE 0Z AND 6Z OPERATIONAL GFS ARE SIMILAR TO THE GFS-BASED ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS ALTHOUGH THE OPERATIONAL RUNS ARE MORE EMPHATIC IN DEPICTING A WEAKNESS IN THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE OVER TEXAS. THE 12Z OPERATIONAL ECMWF SOLUTION SEEMS TO BE A GOOD COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS. 500-HPA HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS MOST OF THE CONUS AND OVER THE ALEUTIANS... AND NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THE GULF COAST AND OVER NOTHERN ALASKA. THE MODELS GENERALLY SHOW GOOD CONTINUITY WITH RESPECT TO THEIR SOLUTIONS FROM YESTERDAY. THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE INTERIOR SOUTHWEST SHOULD LEAD TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPEARTURES FROM THE SOUTHWEST CONUS ACROSS THE ROCKIES TO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND THE OHIO VALLEY. THE TROUGH OVER ALASKA SHOULD LEAD TO NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR MUCH OF THE STATE. THE WEAKNESS IN THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE OVER TEXAS SHOULD LEAD TO AN AREA OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE STATE. AN EXAMINATION OF THE DAILY PRECIPITATION FORECASTS SUGGESTS THAT FLORIDA WILL EXPERIENCE ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION. SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE SHOULD LEAD TO BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR THE CENTRAL PLAINS NORTHEASTWARD TO THE OHIO VALLEY AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. TODAYS OFFICIAL 500-HPA BLEND CONSISTS OF 5 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 0Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 8...5 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 6Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 8...10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL ECMWF CENTERED ON DAY 7...10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...25 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...20 PERCENT OF TODAY'S GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...AND 15 PERCENT OF TODAY'S EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 7. MODEL(S) OF THE DAY: 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN. FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD IS ABOVE AVERAGE... 4 ON A SCALE OF 1 TO 5 DUE TO FAIRLY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT AND FAIR AGREEMENT AMONG THE FORECAST TOOLS. THE 6-10 DAY TEMPERATURE PROG IS BASED ON THE KLEIN AND ANALOG SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLENDED HEIGHT FIELD AND FROM THE 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN AND OPERATIONAL RUN... THE CPC AUTOMATED FORECAST... KLEIN PROBABILITIES FROM THE VARIOUS ENSEMBLES... 2-METER UNCALIBRATED AND CALIBRATED TEMPERATURES FROM THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN... AND TELECONNECTIONS ON A POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY CENTER AT 45N 88W. THE 6-10 DAY PRECIPITATION PROG IS BASED ON THE ANALOG AND NEURAL NET SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLENDED HEIGHT FIELD AND FROM THE 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN AND OPERATIONAL RUN... THE CDC PRECIPITATION TOOL... NEURAL NET PROBABILITIES FROM THE VARIOUS ENSEMBLES... THE CPC AUTOMATED FORECAST... AND TELECONNECTIONS ON A POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY CENTER AT 45N 88W. 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JUN 26 - JUL 02, 2007: FOR THE WEEK 2 PERIOD THE GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN FORECASTS THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE INTERIOR SOUTHWEST TO PHASE WITH A RIDGE OVER WESTERN CANADA WHILE HEIGHTS OVER THE EASTERN CONUS ARE FORECAST TO FALL. AS A RESULT FOR WEEK 2 THE LONGWAVE PATTERN IS FORECAST BY THE GFS-BASED SOLUTIONS TO BE SOMEWHAT MORE AMPLIFIED THAN THAT FORECAST FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD. THE CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN FORECASTS VERY LITTLE CHANGE TO THE PATTERN DURING WEEK 2 COMPARED TO ITS FORECAST FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD. THE 6Z OPERATIONAL GFS IS SIMILAR TO THE GFS ENSEMLE MEAN SOLUTIONS WHILE THE 0Z OPERATIONAL GFS DOES NOT LOWER HEIGHTS AS MUCH OVER THE EAST AND SHOWS LESS PHASING OF THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE WITH THE RIDGE FORECAST OVER WESTERN CANADA. HEIGHTS OVER MOST OF THE CONUS AND OVER THE ALEUTIANS ARE EXPECTED TO REAMIN ABOVE NORMAL WHIKLE NEAT TO BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS ARE PROGGED ALONG THE GULF COAST. THE 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN DEPICTS LOWER HEIGHTS OVER THE EAST/CENTRAL CONUS COMPARED TO THE OTHER MODEL SOLUTIONS. THE MODELS GENERALLY SHOW GOOD CONTINUITY WITH RESPECT TO THEIR SOLUTIONS FROM YESTERDAY ALTHOUGH THE GFS-BASED SOLUTIONS DEPICT SOMEWHAT LOWER HEIGHTS OVER THE EAST/CENTRAL CONUS IN TODAYS PROGS. THE EXPECTED TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION ANOMALIES FOR THE WEEK 2 PERIOD ARE MOSTLY SIMILAR TO THOSE FORECAST FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD ALTHOUGH FLORIDA IS EXPECTED TO TRANSITION FROM ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION DURING THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD TO BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION DURING WEEK 2. THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY HEIGHT PROG CONSISTS OF 10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...25 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...15 PERCENT OF TODAY'S GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...AND 50 PERCENT OF TODAY'S CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11. FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD IS AVERAGE... 3 ON A SCALE OF 1 TO 5... DUE TO FAIR MODEL AGREEMENT AND FAIR TOOL AGREEMENT... AND A 500 HPA HEIGHT PATTERN FORECAST WITH WEAK ANOMALIES. THE 8-14 DAY TEMPERATURE PROG IS BASED ON THE KLEIN AND ANALOG SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLENDED HEIGHT FIELD AND FROM THE 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN AND OPERATIONAL RUN... THE CPC AUTOMATED FORECAST... THE KLEIN PROBABILITIES FROM THE GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN... AND THE NORTH AMERICAN ENSEMBLE FORECAST SYSTEM. THE 8-14 DAY PRECIPITATION PROG IS BASED ON THE ANALOG AND NEURAL NET SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLENDED HEIGHT FIELD AND FROM THE 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN AND OPERATIONAL RUN... THE CDC PRECIPITATION TOOL... AND THE CPC AUTOMATED FORECAST. FORECASTER: R. SCHECHTER NOTES: OPERATIONAL CHANGE: AS OF JULY 5 2005 SHADED MAPS HAVE REPLACED THE CONTOUR-ONLY MAPS ON THE CPC WEB SITE. THE CONTOURED MAPS ARE STILL AVAILABLE AT THEIR CURRENT FILE NAMES - SO DIRECT-LINKED USERS ARE NOT AFFECTED. AWIPS GRAPHICS ARE ALSO NOT AFFECTED BY THIS CHANGE. AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OTHERWISE - FORECASTS INCORPORATE FORECASTER INPUT. THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION. THE NARRATIVE DESCRIPTION OF THE FORECAST PATTERNS FOR TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION FOR BOTH THE 6-10 OR 8-14 DAY PERIODS HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. THE STATE TABLES FOR BOTH THE 6-10 AND 8-14 DAY PERIODS ARE NOW CONTAINED IN THIS MESSAGE...AVAILABLE AS PMDMRD ON AWIPS. THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1971-2000 BASE PERIOD MEANS FOR TEMPERATURE...PRECIPITATION...AND 500-HPA HEIGHTS AS REFERENCE IN THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS. THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON JUNE 21. NEW NOTE EFFECTIVE MAR 16 2004: THE GLOSSARY FORMERLY FOUND AT THIS LOCATION WILL NO LONGER BE TRANSMITTED AS PART OF THIS MESSAGE. IF YOU WISH TO SEE THE DEFINITIONS OF TERMS USED IN THESE MESSAGES... PLEASE GO TO THE CPC WEB PAGE AT (USE LOWER CASE) HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV AND FOLLOW THE APPROPRIATE LINKS. ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3) FOR THE REGION FROM 20N to 70N LATITUDE AND 175E to 60W LONGITUDE INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 19850626 - 19790621 - 19530618 - 19790609 - 19940616 ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4) FOR THE REGION FROM 20N to 70N LATITUDE AND 175E to 60W LONGITUDE INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 19850626 - 19930613 - 19790621 - 19500529 - 19510530 6 to 10 day Outlook Table OUTLOOK FOR JUN 24 - 28, 2007 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON N B OREGON N B NRN CALIF A N SRN CALIF A N IDAHO A B NEVADA A N W MONTANA A B E MONTANA A N WYOMING A N UTAH A N ARIZONA A N COLORADO A N NEW MEXICO A N N DAKOTA A A S DAKOTA A A NEBRASKA A N KANSAS A B OKLAHOMA N N N TEXAS N A S TEXAS B A W TEXAS N N MINNESOTA A A IOWA A N MISSOURI A B ARKANSAS N N LOUISIANA N A WISCONSIN A N ILLINOIS A B MISSISSIPPI N N MICHIGAN A B INDIANA A B OHIO A B KENTUCKY A B TENNESSEE A B ALABAMA N N NEW YORK A B VERMONT N B NEW HAMP N B MAINE N N MASS N B CONN N B RHODE IS N B PENN A B NEW JERSEY N B W VIRGINIA A B MARYLAND A B DELAWARE N B VIRGINIA A B N CAROLINA N B S CAROLINA N N GEORGIA N N FL PNHDL N A FL PENIN N A AK N SLOPE N A AK ALEUTIAN B N AK WESTERN B A AK INT BSN B A AK S INT N N AK SO COAST N N AK PNHDL N N 8 to 14 day Outlook Table OUTLOOK FOR JUN 26 - JUL 02, 2007 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON A B OREGON A B NRN CALIF A N SRN CALIF A N IDAHO A B NEVADA A N W MONTANA A B E MONTANA A B WYOMING A N UTAH A N ARIZONA A N COLORADO A N NEW MEXICO N N N DAKOTA A N S DAKOTA A N NEBRASKA A A KANSAS N N OKLAHOMA N N N TEXAS N A S TEXAS B A W TEXAS N N MINNESOTA A N IOWA A A MISSOURI N N ARKANSAS N N LOUISIANA N A WISCONSIN A N ILLINOIS A N MISSISSIPPI N N MICHIGAN A B INDIANA A B OHIO A B KENTUCKY A B TENNESSEE N B ALABAMA N N NEW YORK A N VERMONT A N NEW HAMP N N MAINE N N MASS N N CONN A N RHODE IS N N PENN A B NEW JERSEY A N W VIRGINIA A B MARYLAND A N DELAWARE A N VIRGINIA A N N CAROLINA N B S CAROLINA N B GEORGIA N B FL PNHDL N B FL PENIN N B AK N SLOPE N A AK ALEUTIAN B B AK WESTERN B N AK INT BSN N A AK S INT N N AK SO COAST B N AK PNHDL A N LEGEND TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN B - BELOW B - BELOW THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS PMDMRD. $$