PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSIONS FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 300 PM EDT FRI JUN 15 2007 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK VALID FOR JUN 21 - 25 2007 TODAYS ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS ARE IN RELATIVELY POOR AGREEMENT ON THE EXPECTED FLOW PATTERN FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD. THE GFS-BASED ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS... AND TO A LESSER DEGREE THE CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN PROG... ARE QUICKER TO LOWER HEIGHTS OVER THE NORTHEAST CONUS AND ARE MORE AMPLIFIED WITH A RIDGE OVER THE INTERIOR SOUTHWEST COMPARED TO THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN FORECAST. THE OPERATIONAL 0Z AND 6Z GFS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS-BASED ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS WHILE YESTERDAYS 12Z ECMWF OPERATIONAL RUN IS SIMILAR IN PHASE BUT MUCH MORE AMPLIFIED THAN THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN PROG. SINCE THE GFS-BASED ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS HAVE RECENTLY BEEN OUT-PERFORMING THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN... AND THE CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTION MORE CLOSELY RESEMBLES THE GFS-BASED FORECASTS... TODAYS 500-HPA BLEND CHART WILL BE MORE HEAVILY WEIGHTED TOWARDS THE GFS-BASED FORECASTS. IN ADDITION THE GFS-BASED SOLUTIONS SHOW BETTER CONTINUITY WITH RESPECT TO THEIR PREVIOUS FORECASTS COMPARED TO THE ECMWF-BASED SOLUTIONS. HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS MOST OF THE CONUS EXCEPT NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST ALONG THE GULF COAST AND OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. HEIGHTS OVER THE ALEUTIANS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MUCH ABOVE NORMAL WHILE MOST OF THE REMAINDER OF ALASKA IS PROGGED TO HAVE NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS. THE RIDGE OVER THE WEST SHOULD LEAD TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST...ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND PLAINS TO THE GREAT LAKES AND INTERIOR NORTHEAST CONUS. THE WEAK TROUGH NEAR THE GULF COAST SHOULD LEAD TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR THAT REGION. THE TROUGH FORECAST TO APPROACH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST MAY LEAD TO ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR WASHINGTON STATE AND COASTAL OREGON. MUCH OF THE CENTRAL CONUS IS PROGGED TO HAVE BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF THE WESTERN RIDGE. THE RIDGE NEAR THE ALEUTIANS SHOULD LEAD TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR MOST OF SOUTHERN ALASKA WHILE A WEAK TROUGH OVER NORTHWEST ALASKA SHOULD LEAD TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR THAT REGION. TODAYS OFFICIAL 500-HPA BLEND CONSISTS OF 5 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 0Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 8...10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 6Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 8...15 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...25 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...20 PERCENT OF TODAY'S GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...15 PERCENT OF TODAY'S CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...AND 10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 7. MODEL(S) OF THE DAY: 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN. FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD IS BELOW AVERAGE... 2 ON A SCALE OF 1 TO 5 DUE TO FAIRLY POOR MODEL AGREEMENT AND ONLY FAIR AGREEMENT AMONG THE FORECAST TOOLS. THE 6-10 DAY TEMPERATURE PROG IS BASED ON THE KLEIN AND ANALOG SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLENDED HEIGHT FIELD AND FROM THE 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN AND OPERATIONAL RUN... THE CPC AUTOMATED FORECAST... KLEIN PROBABILITIES FROM THE VARIOUS ENSEMBLES... AND THE NORTH AMERICAN ENSEMBLE FORECAST SYSTEM. THE 6-10 DAY PRECIPITATION PROG IS BASED ON THE ANALOG AND NEURAL NET SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLENDED HEIGHT FIELD AND FROM THE 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN AND OPERATIONAL RUN... THE CDC PRECIPITATION TOOL... NEURAL NET PROBABILITIES FROM THE VARIOUS ENSEMBLES... AND THE CPC AUTOMATED FORECAST. 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JUN 23 - 29 2007: FOR THE WEEK 2 PERIOD THE GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN INDICATE LITTLE CHANGE TO THE LONGWAVE PATTERN FROM THAT FORECAST FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD. THE WEAK TROUGH ALONG THE GULF COAST IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AND DRIFT EASTWARD. THE 0Z AND 6Z OPERATIONAL GFS ARE GENERALLY SIMILAR TO THE GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN EXCEPT THE OPERATIONAL RUNS ARE A BIT SLOWER TO RAISE HEIGHTS OVER THE SOUTHEAST. AN AMPLIFIED RIDGE IS FORECAST NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WHICH SUGGESTS THE POSSIBLE ONSET OF THE SOUTHWEST MONSOON. TROUGHS ARE FORECAST NORTHEAST OF HUDSON BAY... EXTENDING SOUTHEASTWARD TO THE NORTHEAST CONUS... AND OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA. HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST TO BE ABOVE NORMAL OVER MOST OF THE CONUS AND ALASKA EXCEPT ALONG THE GULF COAST WHERE NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED. THE MODELS GENERALLY SHOW GOOD CONTINUITY WITH RESPECT TO THEIR SOLUTIONS FROM YESTERDAY. THE EXPECTED TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION ANOMALIES FOR THE WEEK 2 PERIOD ARE MOSTLY SIMILAR TO THOSE FORECAST FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY HEIGHT PROG CONSISTS OF 5 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 0Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 11...10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 6Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 11...5 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...15 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...30 PERCENT OF TODAY'S GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...AND 35 PERCENT OF TODAY'S CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11. FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD IS AVERAGE... 3 ON A SCALE OF 1 TO 5... DUE TO FAIR MODEL AGREEMENT AND FAIR TOOL AGREEMENT... AND A 500 HPA HEIGHT PATTERN FORECAST WITH WEAK ANOMALIES. THE 8-14 DAY TEMPERATURE PROG IS BASED ON THE KLEIN AND ANALOG SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLENDED HEIGHT FIELD AND FROM THE 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN AND OPERATIONAL RUN... THE CPC AUTOMATED FORECAST... THE KLEIN PROBABILITIES FROM THE GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN... AND THE NORTH AMERICAN ENSEMBLE FORECAST SYSTEM. THE 8-14 DAY PRECIPITATION PROG IS BASED ON THE ANALOG AND NEURAL NET SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLENDED HEIGHT FIELD AND FROM THE 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN AND OPERATIONAL RUN... THE CDC PRECIPITATION TOOL... AND THE CPC AUTOMATED FORECAST. FORECASTER: R. SCHECHTER NOTES: OPERATIONAL CHANGE: AS OF JULY 5 2005 SHADED MAPS HAVE REPLACED THE CONTOUR-ONLY MAPS ON THE CPC WEB SITE. THE CONTOURED MAPS ARE STILL AVAILABLE AT THEIR CURRENT FILE NAMES - SO DIRECT-LINKED USERS ARE NOT AFFECTED. AWIPS GRAPHICS ARE ALSO NOT AFFECTED BY THIS CHANGE. AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OTHERWISE - FORECASTS INCORPORATE FORECASTER INPUT. THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION. THE NARRATIVE DESCRIPTION OF THE FORECAST PATTERNS FOR TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION FOR BOTH THE 6-10 OR 8-14 DAY PERIODS HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. THE STATE TABLES FOR BOTH THE 6-10 AND 8-14 DAY PERIODS ARE NOW CONTAINED IN THIS MESSAGE...AVAILABLE AS PMDMRD ON AWIPS. THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1971-2000 BASE PERIOD MEANS FOR TEMPERATURE...PRECIPITATION...AND 500-HPA HEIGHTS AS REFERENCE IN THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS. THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON JUNE 21. NEW NOTE EFFECTIVE MAR 16 2004: THE GLOSSARY FORMERLY FOUND AT THIS LOCATION WILL NO LONGER BE TRANSMITTED AS PART OF THIS MESSAGE. IF YOU WISH TO SEE THE DEFINITIONS OF TERMS USED IN THESE MESSAGES... PLEASE GO TO THE CPC WEB PAGE AT (USE LOWER CASE) HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV AND FOLLOW THE APPROPRIATE LINKS. ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3) FOR THE REGION FROM 20N to 70N LATITUDE AND 175E to 60W LONGITUDE INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 19500529 - 19540618 - 19850626 - 19930613 - 19890623 ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4) FOR THE REGION FROM 20N to 70N LATITUDE AND 175E to 60W LONGITUDE INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 19500528 - 19540618 - 19930614 - 19550605 - 19510530 6 to 10 day Outlook Table OUTLOOK FOR JUN 21 - 25, 2007 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON N A OREGON N N NRN CALIF N N SRN CALIF A N IDAHO A N NEVADA A N W MONTANA A N E MONTANA A B WYOMING A B UTAH A N ARIZONA A N COLORADO A B NEW MEXICO A N N DAKOTA A B S DAKOTA A B NEBRASKA A B KANSAS A B OKLAHOMA N B N TEXAS N N S TEXAS N N W TEXAS N N MINNESOTA A N IOWA A B MISSOURI A B ARKANSAS N B LOUISIANA B N WISCONSIN A N ILLINOIS A B MISSISSIPPI B N MICHIGAN A N INDIANA A B OHIO A B KENTUCKY N B TENNESSEE N B ALABAMA B N NEW YORK A N VERMONT A A NEW HAMP A N MAINE N A MASS N N CONN N N RHODE IS N N PENN A B NEW JERSEY N N W VIRGINIA N B MARYLAND N B DELAWARE N N VIRGINIA N B N CAROLINA N B S CAROLINA N N GEORGIA N N FL PNHDL B N FL PENIN B A AK N SLOPE N A AK ALEUTIAN A B AK WESTERN N A AK INT BSN A N AK S INT A B AK SO COAST A B AK PNHDL N B 8 to 14 day Outlook Table OUTLOOK FOR JUN 23 - 29, 2007 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON A N OREGON A N NRN CALIF A N SRN CALIF A N IDAHO A B NEVADA A N W MONTANA A B E MONTANA A B WYOMING A B UTAH A N ARIZONA A N COLORADO A B NEW MEXICO N N N DAKOTA A B S DAKOTA A B NEBRASKA A B KANSAS A B OKLAHOMA N B N TEXAS N N S TEXAS N N W TEXAS N N MINNESOTA A N IOWA A B MISSOURI A B ARKANSAS N B LOUISIANA B N WISCONSIN A N ILLINOIS A B MISSISSIPPI B N MICHIGAN A N INDIANA A B OHIO A B KENTUCKY N B TENNESSEE N B ALABAMA B N NEW YORK N B VERMONT N N NEW HAMP N N MAINE N N MASS N B CONN N B RHODE IS N B PENN N B NEW JERSEY N B W VIRGINIA N B MARYLAND N B DELAWARE N B VIRGINIA N B N CAROLINA N B S CAROLINA N B GEORGIA B N FL PNHDL B N FL PENIN B A AK N SLOPE A A AK ALEUTIAN N A AK WESTERN N A AK INT BSN A N AK S INT A N AK SO COAST A N AK PNHDL A B LEGEND TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN B - BELOW B - BELOW THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS PMDMRD. $$