PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSIONS FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 300 PM EDT WED JUN 13 2007 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK VALID FOR JUN 19 - 23 2007 AVAILABLE NUMERICAL MODELS FROM THE LAST 24 HOURS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT ON THE EXPECTED 500-HPA HEIGHT PATTERN OVER NORTH AMERICA DURING THE 6-10 DAY FORECAST PERIOD. ALL MODELS CONTINUE TO FORECAST A STRONG RIDGE OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC CENTERED NEAR THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS AND THE DATE LINE AND A STRONG TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA. THE EXACT LOCATION OF THE CENTER OF THE POSITIVE ANOMALY ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHERN PACIFIC RIDGE VARIES SOMEWHAT IN THE DIFFERENT MODEL FORECASTS. THE 0Z ECMWF OPERATIONAL MODEL FORECASTS THE CENTER TO BE SOUTHEAST OF OTHER MODELS... LOCATED AROUND 45N LATITUDE AND 165W LONGITUDE. TELECONNECTIONS ON THIS LOCATION INDICATE AN EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE WESTERN CONUS RIDGE AWAY FROM THE PACIFIC COAST. THE 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN AND 6Z OPERATIONAL RUN ARE MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE LOCATION OF THE CONUS RIDGE AND HAVE BEEN SIGNIFICANTLY WEIGHTED IN THE OFFICIAL BLENDED HEIGHT FIELD. THE 0Z OPERATIONAL RUN FORECASTS AN ALTERNATE SCENARIO... WITH A DEEPENING OF THE CENTRAL CONUS TROUGH. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FAVORS ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MOST OF THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CONUS UNDER THE RIDGE... WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR PARTS OF THE PACIFIC COASTAL STATES. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR TEXAS AND THE CENTRAL PLAINS... WHILE ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST IN EAST TEXAS AND THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... WHERE THERE IS A SUBTROPICAL LOW. ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED IN THE GREAT LAKES STATES... DUE TO THE FORECAST OF WEAK TROUGH OVER THE REGION. SOUTHWEST ALASKA SHOULD RECEIVE BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES UNDER THE PROGGED POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY OVER THE STATE... WHILE THE ALASKAN PANHANDLE MAY RECEIVE ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION AHEAD OF A FORECAST TROUGH IN THE GULF OF ALASKA. TODAYS OFFICIAL 500-HPA BLEND CONSISTS OF 15 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 6Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 8...10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL ECMWF CENTERED ON DAY 7...5 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...30 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...AND 30 PERCENT OF TODAY'S EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 7. MODEL(S) OF THE DAY: 6Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEANS. FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD IS AVERAGE... 3 ON A SCALE OF 1 TO 5 DUE TO FAIR MODEL AGREEMENT AND FAIR AGREEMENT AMONG THE FORECAST TOOLS. THE 6-10 DAY TEMPERATURE PROG IS BASED ON THE KLEIN AND ANALOG SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLENDED HEIGHT FIELD AND FROM THE 6Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEANS AND OPERATIONAL RUNS... THE CPC AUTOMATED FORECAST... THE CDC REFORECAST... AND THE NORTH AMERICAN ENSEMBLE FORECAST SYSTEM. THE 6-10 DAY PRECIPITATION PROG IS BASED ON THE ANALOG SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLENDED HEIGHT FIELD AND FROM THE 6Z GFS AND THE 12Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEANS AND OPERATIONAL RUNS... THE CPC AUTOMATED FORECAST... AND THE CDC REFORECAST. 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JUN 21 - 27 2007: FOR THE WEEK 2 FORECAST PERIOD... AVAILABLE MODELS PROG A SLIGHT PROGRESSION OF THE 500-HPA FLOW PATTERN OVER THE CONUS AND AMPLIFICATION OF THE WESTERN RIDGE COMPARED TO THE PATTERN FORECAST FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD. THE 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN AND OPERATIONAL RUN FORECAST A MORE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN THAN THE 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN AND OPERATIONAL RUN... WHILE THE 0Z GFS OPERATIONAL MODEL GREATLY AMPLIFIES THE TROUGH FORECAST OVER THE MIDWEST STATES. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST PATTERN FAVORS ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE WESTERN CONUS... EXCLUDING THE PACIFIC COAST... UNDER THE RIDGE AND ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FROM THE GULF COAST NORTHWARD INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE WESTERN CONUS AND SOUTHWEST MONSOON REGION ARE EXPECTED TO BE DRY UNDER THE WESTERN CONUS RIDGE. THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY HEIGHT PROG CONSISTS OF 5 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 0Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 11...10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 6Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 11...20 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...40 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...AND 25 PERCENT OF TODAY'S CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11. FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD IS AVERAGE... 3 ON A SCALE OF 1 TO 5... DUE TO FAIR MODEL AGREEMENT AND FAIR TOOL AGREEMENT... AND A WEAK FORECAST HEIGHT ANOMALY PATTERN. THE 8-14 DAY TEMPERATURE PROG IS BASED ON THE KLEIN AND ANALOG SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLENDED HEIGHT FIELD AND FROM THE 6Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEANS AND OPERATIONAL RUNS... THE CPC AUTOMATED FORECAST... THE CDC REFORECAST... AND THE NORTH AMERICAN ENSEMBLE FORECAST SYSTEM. THE 8-14 DAY PRECIPITATION PROG IS BASED ON THE ANALOG SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLENDED HEIGHT FIELD AND FROM THE 6Z GFS AND THE 12Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEANS AND OPERATIONAL RUNS... THE CPC AUTOMATED FORECAST... AND THE CDC REFORECAST. FORECASTER: D. COLLINS NOTES: OPERATIONAL CHANGE: AS OF JULY 5 2005 SHADED MAPS HAVE REPLACED THE CONTOUR-ONLY MAPS ON THE CPC WEB SITE. THE CONTOURED MAPS ARE STILL AVAILABLE AT THEIR CURRENT FILE NAMES - SO DIRECT-LINKED USERS ARE NOT AFFECTED. AWIPS GRAPHICS ARE ALSO NOT AFFECTED BY THIS CHANGE. AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OTHERWISE - FORECASTS INCORPORATE FORECASTER INPUT. THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION. THE NARRATIVE DESCRIPTION OF THE FORECAST PATTERNS FOR TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION FOR BOTH THE 6-10 OR 8-14 DAY PERIODS HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. THE STATE TABLES FOR BOTH THE 6-10 AND 8-14 DAY PERIODS ARE NOW CONTAINED IN THIS MESSAGE...AVAILABLE AS PMDMRD ON AWIPS. THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1971-2000 BASE PERIOD MEANS FOR TEMPERATURE...PRECIPITATION...AND 500-HPA HEIGHTS AS REFERENCE IN THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS. THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON JUNE 21. NEW NOTE EFFECTIVE MAR 16 2004: THE GLOSSARY FORMERLY FOUND AT THIS LOCATION WILL NO LONGER BE TRANSMITTED AS PART OF THIS MESSAGE. IF YOU WISH TO SEE THE DEFINITIONS OF TERMS USED IN THESE MESSAGES... PLEASE GO TO THE CPC WEB PAGE AT (USE LOWER CASE) HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV AND FOLLOW THE APPROPRIATE LINKS. ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3) FOR THE REGION FROM 20N to 70N LATITUDE AND 175E to 60W LONGITUDE INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 19540618 - 19500527 - 19600531 - 19570624 - 19930615 ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4) FOR THE REGION FROM 20N to 70N LATITUDE AND 175E to 60W LONGITUDE INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 19500526 - 19540618 - 19570623 - 19710609 - 19750603 6 to 10 day Outlook Table OUTLOOK FOR JUN 19 - 23, 2007 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON A N OREGON A N NRN CALIF A N SRN CALIF A N IDAHO A N NEVADA A N W MONTANA A N E MONTANA A N WYOMING A N UTAH A N ARIZONA A N COLORADO N N NEW MEXICO N N N DAKOTA A N S DAKOTA N N NEBRASKA N N KANSAS B N OKLAHOMA B A N TEXAS B A S TEXAS B A W TEXAS B N MINNESOTA N N IOWA N N MISSOURI B N ARKANSAS B A LOUISIANA B A WISCONSIN N A ILLINOIS N N MISSISSIPPI B A MICHIGAN N A INDIANA N N OHIO N A KENTUCKY N N TENNESSEE N N ALABAMA N A NEW YORK N A VERMONT N A NEW HAMP A N MAINE A N MASS N N CONN N N RHODE IS N N PENN N A NEW JERSEY N N W VIRGINIA N N MARYLAND N N DELAWARE N N VIRGINIA N N N CAROLINA N N S CAROLINA N N GEORGIA N N FL PNHDL N A FL PENIN N N AK N SLOPE A N AK ALEUTIAN A B AK WESTERN A B AK INT BSN N N AK S INT A B AK SO COAST A B AK PNHDL N A 8 to 14 day Outlook Table OUTLOOK FOR JUN 21 - 27, 2007 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON N N OREGON A N NRN CALIF A N SRN CALIF A N IDAHO A N NEVADA A N W MONTANA A N E MONTANA A N WYOMING A N UTAH A N ARIZONA A N COLORADO A N NEW MEXICO A N N DAKOTA A N S DAKOTA N N NEBRASKA N N KANSAS B N OKLAHOMA B N N TEXAS B A S TEXAS B A W TEXAS N N MINNESOTA N N IOWA B N MISSOURI B N ARKANSAS B N LOUISIANA B A WISCONSIN B N ILLINOIS B N MISSISSIPPI B A MICHIGAN N A INDIANA B N OHIO B N KENTUCKY B N TENNESSEE B N ALABAMA B N NEW YORK A A VERMONT A A NEW HAMP A N MAINE A N MASS A N CONN A N RHODE IS A N PENN N N NEW JERSEY N N W VIRGINIA N N MARYLAND N N DELAWARE N N VIRGINIA N N N CAROLINA N N S CAROLINA N N GEORGIA N N FL PNHDL N N FL PENIN N N AK N SLOPE A N AK ALEUTIAN A B AK WESTERN A B AK INT BSN N N AK S INT A B AK SO COAST A B AK PNHDL N N LEGEND TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN B - BELOW B - BELOW THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS PMDMRD. $$