PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSIONS FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 300 PM EDT FRI JUN 08 2007 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK VALID FOR JUN 14 - 18 2007 TODAYS ENSEMBLE MEAN FORECASTS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT IN DEPICTING A TROUGH FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA TO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST... A STRONG CLOSED-OFF RIDGE CENTERED NORTH OF ALASKA... RIDGING FROM THE SOUTHWEST STATES TO THE GREAT LAKES REGION... AND AN ATLANTIC TROUGH WHICH HANGS BACK OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST CONUS. THE EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN DIFFERS FROM THE OTHER SOLUTIONS IN THAT IT PREDICTS A FLATTENING TROUGH OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL STATES AND ALSO KEEPS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC TROUGH MOSTLY OFFSHORE. THE 0Z OPERATIONAL GFS IS SIMILAR TO THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS EXCEPT IT BRINGS THE ATLANTIC TROUGH WELL INLAND ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS. THIS MODEL HAS BEEN THE MOST PERSISTENT ALL WEEK IN KEEPING A CLOSED UPPER LOW AND ACCOMPANYING TROUGH JUST OFF THE EAST COAST. THE 6Z GFS PREDICTS THE GULF OF ALASKA TROUGH TO BE FURTHER EAST THAN THE OTHER MODEL SOLUTIONS... AND HAS THE TROUGH AXIS FROM THE ALASKA PANHANDLE SOUTHWARD TO CALIFORNIA. THE OFFICIAL 6-10 DAY TEMPERATURE FORECAST ANTICIPATES WARMER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION SOUTHWESTWARD TO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND ALSO OVER MOST OF ALASKA... COOLER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES OVER PORTIONS OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND PARTS OF THE EAST COAST AND SOUTH TEXAS... AND NEAR AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ELSEWHERE WHICH INCLUDES A SIGNIFICANT PORTION OF THE CONUS. ABOVE AVERAGE RAINFALL IS PREDICTED OVER THE UPPER AND MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND PENINSULAR FLORIDA ... WHILE SUBNORMAL AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION ARE INDICATED OVER THE NORTHEAST - MOST OF ALASKA - NEARLY ALL OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST - NORTHERN ROCKIES - AND THE HIGH PLAINS. ELSEWHERE... NEAR AVERAGE PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE FORECAST. TODAYS OFFICIAL 500-HPA BLEND CONSISTS OF 10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 6Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 8...20 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...25 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...20 PERCENT OF TODAY'S GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...15 PERCENT OF TODAY'S CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...AND 10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 7. MODEL(S) OF THE DAY: 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD IS ABOVE AVERAGE... 4 ON A SCALE OF 1 TO 5 DUE TO FAIRLY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT AND FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE FORECAST TOOLS. THE 6-10 DAY TEMPERATURE PROG IS BASED ON THE KLEIN... ANALOG AND NEURAL NET SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLEND... THE CPC AUTOMATED TEMPERATURE FORECAST... THE CDC REFORECAST TEMPERATURE TOOL... AND 2- METER TEMPERATURES FROM THE NORTH AMERICAN ENSEMBLE FORECAST SYSTEM. THE 6-10 DAY PRECIPITATION PROG IS BASED ON THE ANALOG AND NEURAL NET SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLEND... THE CPC AUTOMATED PRECIPITATION FORECAST... THE CDC REFORECAST PRECIPITATION TOOL... AND ALSO CPC CALIBRATED PRECIPITATION PERCENTAGES FROM THE GFS SUPERENSEMBLE. 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JUN 16 - 22 2007: FOR WEEK 2 THE GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN AND THE 0Z AND 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEANS AS WELL AS THE CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN PREDICT A TROUGH NEAR THE WEST COAST... A RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL CONUS... AND ANOTHER TROUGH OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST WHICH HANGS BACK AT LOWER LATITUDES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. THE DETERMINISTIC 0Z GFS RUN ANTICIPATES THE WEST COAST TROUGH TO RETROGRADE TO THE CENTRAL GULF OF ALASKA WHICH HELPS TO PULL THE CENTRAL U.S. RIDGE BACK INTO THE ROCKIES AND THE ATLANTIC OFFSHORE TROUGH LIKEWISE GETS PULLED BACK TO NEAR THE APPALACHIANS. ALL MODEL RUNS SUGGEST THE CONTINUATION OF A LARGE ANOMALOUS BLOCK OVER THE ARCTIC OCEAN NORTH OF ALASKA. THE 0Z GFS PREDICTS BY FAR THE DEEPEST ANOMALOUS TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS... WITH THE LOCAL HEIGHT DEPARTURE NEAR PITTSBURGH ABOUT 120 METERS BELOW THE 1971-2000 30-YEAR AVERAGE. THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY HEIGHT PROG CONSISTS OF 10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 0Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 11...10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 6Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 11...20 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...20 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...30 PERCENT OF TODAY'S GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...AND 10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11. FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD IS AVERAGE... 3 ON A SCALE OF 1 TO 5... MAINLY DUE TO RESPECTABLE MODEL AGREEMENT THOUGH OFFSET BY UNCERTAINTY INTRODUCED BY THE 0Z OPERATIONAL GFS RUN. THE 8-14 DAY TEMPERATURE PROG IS BASED ON THE KLEIN... NEURAL NET... AND ANALOG SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLEND... THE CPC AUTOMATED TEMPERATURE FORECAST... THE CDC REFORECAST TEMPERATURE TOOL... AND 2 METER TEMPERATURES FROM THE NORTH AMERICAN ENSEMBLE FORECAST SYSTEM. THE 8-14 DAY PRECIPITATION PROG IS BASED ON THE ANALOG SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLEND... THE CPC AUTOMATED PRECIPITATION FORECAST... THE CDC REFORECAST PRECIPITATION TOOL... AND THE CPC CALIBRATED PRECIPITATION PERCENTAGES FROM THE GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN. FORECASTER: ARTUSA NOTES: OPERATIONAL CHANGE: AS OF JULY 5 2005 SHADED MAPS HAVE REPLACED THE CONTOUR-ONLY MAPS ON THE CPC WEB SITE. THE CONTOURED MAPS ARE STILL AVAILABLE AT THEIR CURRENT FILE NAMES - SO DIRECT-LINKED USERS ARE NOT AFFECTED. AWIPS GRAPHICS ARE ALSO NOT AFFECTED BY THIS CHANGE. AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OTHERWISE - FORECASTS INCORPORATE FORECASTER INPUT. THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION. THE NARRATIVE DESCRIPTION OF THE FORECAST PATTERNS FOR TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION FOR BOTH THE 6-10 OR 8-14 DAY PERIODS HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. THE STATE TABLES FOR BOTH THE 6-10 AND 8-14 DAY PERIODS ARE NOW CONTAINED IN THIS MESSAGE...AVAILABLE AS PMDMRD ON AWIPS. THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1971-2000 BASE PERIOD MEANS FOR TEMPERATURE...PRECIPITATION...AND 500-HPA HEIGHTS AS REFERENCE IN THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS. THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON JUNE 21. NEW NOTE EFFECTIVE MAR 16 2004: THE GLOSSARY FORMERLY FOUND AT THIS LOCATION WILL NO LONGER BE TRANSMITTED AS PART OF THIS MESSAGE. IF YOU WISH TO SEE THE DEFINITIONS OF TERMS USED IN THESE MESSAGES... PLEASE GO TO THE CPC WEB PAGE AT (USE LOWER CASE) HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV AND FOLLOW THE APPROPRIATE LINKS. ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3) FOR THE REGION FROM 20N to 70N LATITUDE AND 175E to 60W LONGITUDE INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 19530519 - 19580622 - 19830531 - 19850603 - 19750601 ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4) FOR THE REGION FROM 20N to 70N LATITUDE AND 175E to 60W LONGITUDE INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 19530518 - 19830530 - 19850603 - 19650610 - 19900528 6 to 10 day Outlook Table OUTLOOK FOR JUN 14 - 18, 2007 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON B B OREGON N B NRN CALIF N N SRN CALIF A N IDAHO N B NEVADA A N W MONTANA N B E MONTANA N B WYOMING N B UTAH A N ARIZONA A N COLORADO A B NEW MEXICO N N N DAKOTA A N S DAKOTA A N NEBRASKA A B KANSAS A B OKLAHOMA N N N TEXAS N N S TEXAS B N W TEXAS N B MINNESOTA A A IOWA A A MISSOURI A A ARKANSAS N N LOUISIANA N N WISCONSIN A A ILLINOIS A A MISSISSIPPI N N MICHIGAN A N INDIANA A A OHIO A N KENTUCKY N A TENNESSEE N A ALABAMA N N NEW YORK A B VERMONT A B NEW HAMP N B MAINE A B MASS N B CONN N B RHODE IS N B PENN N B NEW JERSEY N B W VIRGINIA N N MARYLAND N B DELAWARE B B VIRGINIA N B N CAROLINA B N S CAROLINA N N GEORGIA N N FL PNHDL N N FL PENIN B A AK N SLOPE A B AK ALEUTIAN A B AK WESTERN A B AK INT BSN A B AK S INT A B AK SO COAST A B AK PNHDL N N 8 to 14 day Outlook Table OUTLOOK FOR JUN 16 - 22, 2007 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON B N OREGON N B NRN CALIF N B SRN CALIF A N IDAHO A B NEVADA A B W MONTANA N B E MONTANA A B WYOMING A B UTAH A B ARIZONA A N COLORADO A B NEW MEXICO A B N DAKOTA A N S DAKOTA A A NEBRASKA A N KANSAS A N OKLAHOMA N N N TEXAS N N S TEXAS B N W TEXAS A B MINNESOTA A A IOWA A A MISSOURI N A ARKANSAS N N LOUISIANA N N WISCONSIN A A ILLINOIS N A MISSISSIPPI N N MICHIGAN A N INDIANA N A OHIO N N KENTUCKY N A TENNESSEE N A ALABAMA N N NEW YORK N B VERMONT N B NEW HAMP N B MAINE N B MASS B B CONN B B RHODE IS B B PENN N B NEW JERSEY B B W VIRGINIA N N MARYLAND B B DELAWARE B B VIRGINIA N N N CAROLINA B N S CAROLINA B N GEORGIA N N FL PNHDL N N FL PENIN B N AK N SLOPE A B AK ALEUTIAN A B AK WESTERN A B AK INT BSN A B AK S INT A B AK SO COAST A B AK PNHDL N B LEGEND TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN B - BELOW B - BELOW THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS PMDMRD. $$