PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSIONS FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 300 PM EDT TUE JUN 05 2007 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK VALID FOR JUN 11 - 15 2007 TODAYS NUMERICAL MODELS REMAIN ONLY IN FAIR AGREEMENT ON THE OVERALL 500-HPA FLOW PATTERN OVER THE FORECAST DOMAIN. THE MAIN FORECAST FEATURES AS DEPICTED BY THE GFS AND ECMWF BASED SOLUTIONS ARE A STRONG ANOMALOUS RIDGE EXPECTED TO BE LOCATED NORTH OF ALASKA... A WEAK TO MODERATELY STRONG TROUGH OVER THE GREAT BASIN... AND SUBTROPICAL RIDGING EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHEAST CONUS TO NORTHERN MEXICO. FURTHER DOWNSTREAM... THE OPERATIONAL 0Z GFS (AND TO A LESSER DEGREE THE 6Z GFS) DEPICTS A CLOSED LOW OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WHICH IS REFLECTED AS AN OPEN WAVE IN THEIR RESPECTIVE ENSEMBLE MEANS. THE RESULTANT PATTERN FAVORS A WARMER AND DRIER THAN NORMAL PATTERN FOR MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS. A POSSIBLE EXCEPTION IS THE NEW ENGLAND/MID ATLANTIC COAST DEPENDING ON WHETHER OR NOT THE CUT-OFF LOW MATERIALIZES AND HOW FAR OFF THE COAST IT WILL BE LOCATED. CURRENT TRENDS IN THE OPERATIONAL GFS ARE TO SLOWLY PROGRESS THIS FEATURE FURTHER OFF THE COAST WITH EACH SUCCESSIVE RUN FAVORING A WARMER SCENARIO. FURTHER TO THE WEST... AN ACTIVE PATTERN IS LIKELY OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS STATES NEAR THE MEAN POSITION OF THE 500-HPA JET AHEAD OF THE FORECAST TROUGH OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND ROCKIES. CLOSER TO THE TROUGH ITSELF... BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR MOST OF THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT OF THE CONUS. FOR ALASKA...THE MOST INFLUENTIAL FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO BE A STRONG RIDGE NORTH OF THE STATE. THIS RIDGE SHOULD KEEP THE MID-LEVEL FLOW MOSTLY OFFSHORE FAVORING A DRY PATTERN FOR MOST OF THE STATE. POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES ARE ALSO EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE STATE (WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE PANHANDLE) FAVORING ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. TODAYS OFFICIAL 500-HPA BLEND CONSISTS OF 10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 0Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 8...20 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...30 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...20 PERCENT OF TODAY'S GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...AND 10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 7. MODEL(S) OF THE DAY: 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD IS AVERAGE... 3 ON A SCALE OF 1 TO 5. THE 6-10 DAY TEMPERATURE PROG IS BASED ON THE KLEIN AND ANALOG SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLEND... THE CPC AUTOMATED TEMPERATURE FORECAST... THE CDC REFORECAST TEMPERATURE TOOL... AND 2 METER TEMPERATURES FROM THE NORTH AMERICAN ENSEMBLE FORECAST SYSTEM. THE 6-10 DAY PRECIPITATION PROG IS BASED ON THE ANALOG SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLEND... THE CPC AUTOMATED PRECIPITATION FORECAST... THE CDC REFORECAST PRECIPITATION TOOL... AND CPC CALIBRATED PRECIPITATION PERCENTAGES FROM THE GFS SUPERENSEMBLE. 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JUN 13 - 19 2007: THE 500-HPA ENSEMBLE MEAN HEIGHT FORECASTS FOR THE WEEK 2 PERIOD ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON A BROAD TROUGH WHICH STRETCHES FROM KAMCHATKA EASTWARD AND SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE GULF OF ALASKA TO THE WEST COAST OF THE LOWER 48 STATES. THE TROUGH POSITION OVER THE NORTHWEST CONUS IS PREDICTED TO BE FURTHER WEST IN WEEK 2 THAN IN THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD... WHICH IS MORE CONSISTENT WITH WARM SEASON CLIMATOLOGY. THE DETERMINISTIC 0Z GFS FORECAST INDICATES A SHALLOW TROUGH ALONG THE NORTHWEST COAST... WHILE THE 6Z GFS HAS A MUCH DEEPER TROUGH WELL OFF THE WEST COAST. THE ENSEMBLE MEANS ALSO ANTICIPATE RIDGING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS... AND AN OPEN WAVE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE 0Z AND 6Z GFS SOLUTIONS HAVE A MUCH FLATTER FLOW ACROSS MOST OF THE LOWER 48 STATES. INSPECTION OF BOTH THE ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS AND THE OPERATIONAL SOLUTIONS (ESPECIALLY NOTING THE TROUGH ALONG THE NORTHWEST COAST AND A RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST) REVEALS THAT THE CIRCULATION IS BEGINNING TO LOOK MORE TYPICAL OF PRE-MONSOON CONDITIONS DURING THE SECOND HALF OF JUNE. THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY HEIGHT PROG CONSISTS OF 10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 0Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 11...10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 6Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 11...20 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...20 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...30 PERCENT OF TODAY'S GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...AND 10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11. FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD IS AVERAGE... 3 ON A SCALE OF 1 TO 5. THE 8-14 DAY TEMPERATURE PROG IS BASED ON THE KLEIN... NEURAL NET... AND ANALOG SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLEND... THE CPC AUTOMATED TEMPERATURE FORECAST... AND THE CDC REFORECAST TEMPERATURE TOOL. THE 8-14 DAY PRECIPITATION PROG IS BASED ON THE ANALOG SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLEND... THE CPC AUTOMATED PRECIPITATION FORECAST... THE CDC REFORECAST PRECIPITATION TOOL... AND CPC CALIBRATED PRECIPITATION PERCENTAGES FROM THE GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN. FORECASTER: ARTUSA NOTES: OPERATIONAL CHANGE: AS OF JULY 5 2005 SHADED MAPS HAVE REPLACED THE CONTOUR-ONLY MAPS ON THE CPC WEB SITE. THE CONTOURED MAPS ARE STILL AVAILABLE AT THEIR CURRENT FILE NAMES - SO DIRECT-LINKED USERS ARE NOT AFFECTED. AWIPS GRAPHICS ARE ALSO NOT AFFECTED BY THIS CHANGE. AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OTHERWISE - FORECASTS INCORPORATE FORECASTER INPUT. THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION. THE NARRATIVE DESCRIPTION OF THE FORECAST PATTERNS FOR TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION FOR BOTH THE 6-10 OR 8-14 DAY PERIODS HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. THE STATE TABLES FOR BOTH THE 6-10 AND 8-14 DAY PERIODS ARE NOW CONTAINED IN THIS MESSAGE...AVAILABLE AS PMDMRD ON AWIPS. THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1971-2000 BASE PERIOD MEANS FOR TEMPERATURE...PRECIPITATION...AND 500-HPA HEIGHTS AS REFERENCE IN THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS. THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON JUNE 21. NEW NOTE EFFECTIVE MAR 16 2004: THE GLOSSARY FORMERLY FOUND AT THIS LOCATION WILL NO LONGER BE TRANSMITTED AS PART OF THIS MESSAGE. IF YOU WISH TO SEE THE DEFINITIONS OF TERMS USED IN THESE MESSAGES... PLEASE GO TO THE CPC WEB PAGE AT (USE LOWER CASE) HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV AND FOLLOW THE APPROPRIATE LINKS. ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3) FOR THE REGION FROM 20N to 70N LATITUDE AND 175E to 60W LONGITUDE INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 19890613 - 19860525 - 19770616 - 19990614 - 19720526 ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4) FOR THE REGION FROM 20N to 70N LATITUDE AND 175E to 60W LONGITUDE INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 19770616 - 19720526 - 19860525 - 19890613 - 19990614 6 to 10 day Outlook Table OUTLOOK FOR JUN 11 - 15, 2007 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON B B OREGON B B NRN CALIF A B SRN CALIF N N IDAHO B N NEVADA N B W MONTANA B N E MONTANA B A WYOMING B N UTAH B N ARIZONA N N COLORADO B N NEW MEXICO N N N DAKOTA B A S DAKOTA B A NEBRASKA B A KANSAS B A OKLAHOMA N N N TEXAS N N S TEXAS N B W TEXAS N N MINNESOTA N A IOWA N A MISSOURI N A ARKANSAS N N LOUISIANA N N WISCONSIN A A ILLINOIS A A MISSISSIPPI A N MICHIGAN A A INDIANA A N OHIO A B KENTUCKY A N TENNESSEE A B ALABAMA A B NEW YORK A B VERMONT A B NEW HAMP A B MAINE A N MASS N B CONN N B RHODE IS N B PENN A B NEW JERSEY A B W VIRGINIA A B MARYLAND A B DELAWARE A B VIRGINIA A B N CAROLINA A B S CAROLINA A B GEORGIA A B FL PNHDL A B FL PENIN N N AK N SLOPE A B AK ALEUTIAN A B AK WESTERN A B AK INT BSN A B AK S INT A B AK SO COAST A B AK PNHDL B B 8 to 14 day Outlook Table OUTLOOK FOR JUN 13 - 19, 2007 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON B B OREGON B B NRN CALIF N N SRN CALIF N N IDAHO N B NEVADA A N W MONTANA B N E MONTANA N A WYOMING N N UTAH A N ARIZONA A N COLORADO N N NEW MEXICO N B N DAKOTA N A S DAKOTA N A NEBRASKA N N KANSAS N N OKLAHOMA N B N TEXAS N B S TEXAS N B W TEXAS N B MINNESOTA A A IOWA A A MISSOURI A N ARKANSAS A N LOUISIANA N B WISCONSIN A A ILLINOIS A N MISSISSIPPI A B MICHIGAN A N INDIANA A N OHIO A N KENTUCKY A N TENNESSEE A N ALABAMA A B NEW YORK A B VERMONT A B NEW HAMP N B MAINE N B MASS N B CONN N B RHODE IS N B PENN A B NEW JERSEY N B W VIRGINIA A B MARYLAND N B DELAWARE N B VIRGINIA A B N CAROLINA N B S CAROLINA A B GEORGIA A B FL PNHDL A B FL PENIN N N AK N SLOPE A B AK ALEUTIAN A B AK WESTERN A B AK INT BSN A B AK S INT A B AK SO COAST A B AK PNHDL N B LEGEND TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN B - BELOW B - BELOW THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS PMDMRD. $$