PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSIONS FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 300 PM EDT THU MAY 31 2007 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK VALID FOR JUN 06 - 10 2007 TODAYS ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS ARE IN FAIR GENERAL AGREEMENT BUT DISAGREE ON THE EVOLUTION OF A TROUGH ENTERING THE WEST THAT WILL BE CRITICAL IN DETERMINING THE FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS. TELECONNECTIONS RELATIVE TO THE PAIR OF DOMINANT POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES NORTH OF ALASKA AND NEAR NEWFOUNDLAND FAVOR THE WEAKER TROUGH FORECAST BY THE GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN... THE 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN... AND THE 12Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN. IN ADDITION... A MAJORITY OF THE INDIVIDUAL 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS FAVOR A WEAKER TROUGH. THEREFORE... THE OFFICIAL BLENDED HEIGHT FIELD WAS WEIGHTED USING THE GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN... THE 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN... AND THE 12Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN. ACROSS THE EAST... THE TREND APPARENT DURING THE PAST MODEL RUNS IS FOR A SLIGHTLY PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WITH A DEAMPLIFYING TROUGH. AS 500-HPA HEIGHTS RISE ACROSS THE EAST... A GRADUAL WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED WITH THE GREATEST LIKELIHOOD OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES OCCURRING IN THE SOUTHEAST. WITH A BROAD 500-HPA RIDGE PERSISTING OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES... ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE FOR CALIFORNIA... THE GREAT BASIN... AND THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES MAY LINGER ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES. ELSEWHERE... ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY ACROSS ALASKA AS 500-HPA HEIGHTS INCREASE RAPIDLY. FOR THE PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK... FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW DUE TO LARGE DIFFERENCES IN THE TOOLS. AFTER THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CROSSES FLORIDA DURING THE SHORT-TERM... SEA-BREEZE INDUCED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED FOR THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. SINCE THE MAIN STORM TRACK WILL BE FOCUSED ALONG THE 50 DEGREE PARALLEL... ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS MOST LIKELY ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE CONUS. HOWEVER... NORTHWEST STEERING FLOW MAY LEAD TO ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. ALSO... AS THE WESTERN RIDGE IS UNDERCUT BY PACIFIC SHORTWAVE TROUGHS... ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION MAY RETURN TO EXCESSIVELY WET AREAS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. ELSEWHERE... ACROSS MUCH OF ALASKA... ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY DRIER-THAN-NORMAL CONDITIONS. TODAYS OFFICIAL 500-HPA BLEND CONSISTS OF 30 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...40 PERCENT OF TODAY'S GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...AND 30 PERCENT OF TODAY'S EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 7. MODEL(S) OF THE DAY: GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD IS AVERAGE... 3 ON A SCALE OF 1 TO 5.... DUE TO GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE TEMPERATURE TOOLS OFFSET BY POOR AGREEMENT AMONG THE PRECIPITATION TOOLS. THE 6-10 DAY TEMPERATURE PROG IS BASED ON THE KLEIN... NEURAL NET... AND ANALOG SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLENDED HEIGHT FIELD AND FROM THE GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN... THE CPC AUTO TEMPERATURE FORECAST... THE CDC TEMPERATURE TOOL... AND THE NORTH AMERICAN ENSEMBLE FORECAST SYSTEM TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE. THE 6-10 DAY PRECIPITATION PROG IS BASED ON THE NEURAL NET AND ANALOG SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLENDED HEIGHT FIELD... THE CPC AUTO PRECIPITATION FORECAST... AND THE CDC PRECIPITATION TOOL. 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JUN 08 - 14 2007: GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND DISPLAY GOOD CONTINUITY ON THE 500-HPA HEIGHT FIELD OVER NORTH AMERICA FOR DAYS 8-14. THE PATTERN REMAINS PROGRESSIVE FROM THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD AS THE TROUGH ALONG THE EAST COAST MOVES INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WHILE A RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE PLAINS AND MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. UNLIKE YESTERDAY WHEN THE 0Z AND 6Z GFS WERE COMPLETELY OUT OF PHASE IN THE EAST... THE MODEL RUNS TODAY AGREE THAT 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES WILL BECOME POSITIVE. THE EXPANDING RIDGE WILL LEAD TO A WARMING TREND FROM THE PLAINS TO THE EAST COAST WITH THE LARGEST POSITIVE TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES CENTERED OVER THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. ELSEWHERE... ACROSS ALASKA... ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE. AS THE RIDGE ALOFT BECOMES ESTABLISHED OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS... CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE SUPPRESSED. THEREFORE... BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST FOR MUCH OF THE CONUS. HOWEVER... THE PRIMARY STORM TRACK WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE CONUS WHERE SOME POTENTIAL FOR ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION EXISTS. FOR THE DROUGHT PARCHED AREAS OF THE SOUTHEAST AND FLORIDA... DRIER-THAN-NORMAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. ACROSS ALASKA... BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE. THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY HEIGHT PROG CONSISTS OF 25 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...25 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...AND 50 PERCENT OF TODAY'S GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11. FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD IS ABOVE AVERAGE... 4 ON A SCALE OF 1 TO 5... DUE TO REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS AND GOOD CONTINUITY. THE 8-14 DAY TEMPERATURE PROG IS BASED ON THE KLEIN... NEURAL NET... AND ANALOG SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLENDED HEIGHT FIELD AND FROM THE VARIOUS GFS MODEL SOLUTIONS... THE CPC AUTO TEMPERATURE FORECAST... THE CDC TEMPERATURE TOOL... AND THE NORTH AMERICAN ENSEMBLE FORECAST SYSTEM TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE. THE 8-14 DAY PRECIPITATION PROG IS BASED ON THE ANALOG AND NEURAL NET SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLENDED HEIGHT FIELD AND FROM THE VARIOUS GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS... CALIBRATED PRECIPITATION FROM THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS...THE CPC AUTO PRECIPITATION FORECAST... AND THE CDC PRECIPITATION TOOL. FORECASTER: PUGH NOTES: OPERATIONAL CHANGE: AS OF JULY 5 2005 SHADED MAPS HAVE REPLACED THE CONTOUR-ONLY MAPS ON THE CPC WEB SITE. THE CONTOURED MAPS ARE STILL AVAILABLE AT THEIR CURRENT FILE NAMES - SO DIRECT-LINKED USERS ARE NOT AFFECTED. AWIPS GRAPHICS ARE ALSO NOT AFFECTED BY THIS CHANGE. AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OTHERWISE - FORECASTS INCORPORATE FORECASTER INPUT. THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION. THE NARRATIVE DESCRIPTION OF THE FORECAST PATTERNS FOR TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION FOR BOTH THE 6-10 OR 8-14 DAY PERIODS HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. THE STATE TABLES FOR BOTH THE 6-10 AND 8-14 DAY PERIODS ARE NOW CONTAINED IN THIS MESSAGE...AVAILABLE AS PMDMRD ON AWIPS. THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1971-2000 BASE PERIOD MEANS FOR TEMPERATURE...PRECIPITATION...AND 500-HPA HEIGHTS AS REFERENCE IN THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS. THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON JUNE 21. NEW NOTE EFFECTIVE MAR 16 2004: THE GLOSSARY FORMERLY FOUND AT THIS LOCATION WILL NO LONGER BE TRANSMITTED AS PART OF THIS MESSAGE. IF YOU WISH TO SEE THE DEFINITIONS OF TERMS USED IN THESE MESSAGES... PLEASE GO TO THE CPC WEB PAGE AT (USE LOWER CASE) HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV AND FOLLOW THE APPROPRIATE LINKS. ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3) FOR THE REGION FROM 20N to 70N LATITUDE AND 175E to 60W LONGITUDE INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 19510520 - 19700531 - 19710511 - 19700522 - 19860608 ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4) FOR THE REGION FROM 20N to 70N LATITUDE AND 175E to 60W LONGITUDE INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 19700531 - 19510519 - 19660613 - 19700522 - 19610514 6 to 10 day Outlook Table OUTLOOK FOR JUN 06 - 10, 2007 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON B A OREGON B A NRN CALIF A A SRN CALIF A N IDAHO N A NEVADA A A W MONTANA B A E MONTANA N A WYOMING N A UTAH A N ARIZONA A N COLORADO A N NEW MEXICO A N N DAKOTA N A S DAKOTA N A NEBRASKA N A KANSAS N N OKLAHOMA N N N TEXAS N N S TEXAS N B W TEXAS A N MINNESOTA B A IOWA N A MISSOURI N A ARKANSAS N N LOUISIANA N B WISCONSIN B A ILLINOIS B A MISSISSIPPI N B MICHIGAN B A INDIANA B N OHIO B N KENTUCKY N N TENNESSEE N N ALABAMA N B NEW YORK N A VERMONT N A NEW HAMP N A MAINE N A MASS N A CONN N A RHODE IS N A PENN N A NEW JERSEY N A W VIRGINIA N N MARYLAND N N DELAWARE N N VIRGINIA N N N CAROLINA N N S CAROLINA A N GEORGIA A N FL PNHDL A B FL PENIN A N AK N SLOPE A N AK ALEUTIAN A B AK WESTERN A B AK INT BSN A B AK S INT A B AK SO COAST A B AK PNHDL A B 8 to 14 day Outlook Table OUTLOOK FOR JUN 08 - 14, 2007 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON N N OREGON N B NRN CALIF N B SRN CALIF A N IDAHO N B NEVADA A B W MONTANA N N E MONTANA N N WYOMING N B UTAH A B ARIZONA A N COLORADO A B NEW MEXICO A N N DAKOTA N N S DAKOTA N N NEBRASKA A B KANSAS A B OKLAHOMA A B N TEXAS A B S TEXAS N N W TEXAS A N MINNESOTA N N IOWA A B MISSOURI A B ARKANSAS A B LOUISIANA A B WISCONSIN A N ILLINOIS A B MISSISSIPPI A B MICHIGAN N N INDIANA A B OHIO A B KENTUCKY A B TENNESSEE A B ALABAMA A B NEW YORK N N VERMONT N A NEW HAMP N A MAINE N A MASS N A CONN N A RHODE IS N N PENN N N NEW JERSEY N N W VIRGINIA N B MARYLAND N B DELAWARE N B VIRGINIA N B N CAROLINA A B S CAROLINA A B GEORGIA A B FL PNHDL A B FL PENIN N N AK N SLOPE A B AK ALEUTIAN A B AK WESTERN A B AK INT BSN A B AK S INT A B AK SO COAST A B AK PNHDL A B LEGEND TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN B - BELOW B - BELOW THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS PMDMRD. $$