PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSIONS FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 300 PM EDT WED MAY 30 2007 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK VALID FOR JUN 05 - 09 2007 FOLLOWING YESTERDAYS GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS IN DEPICTING AN AMPLIFIED FLOW PATTERN... TODAYS MODEL GUIDANCE EXHIBITS A LACK OF CONTINUITY AND ONLY FAIR AGREEMENT. THE VARIOUS GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS DEAMPLIFY THE FLOW PATTERN... WHILE THE 12Z ECMWF AND 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS MAINTAIN A MORE AMPLIFIED PATTERN. ALL MODEL SOLUTIONS INDICATE POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES NEAR NEWFOUNDLAND WHICH TELECONNECTS TO A WEAK TROUGH ALONG THE EAST COAST AND A BROAD RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWEST. THE OFFICIAL BLENDED HEIGHT FIELD IS WEIGHTED MOST HEAVILY TOWARDS THE GFS SUPERENSEMBLE SINCE IT BEST MATCHES TELECONNECTIONS. ALL ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS SHOW A SHARP RIDGE EXTENDING ACROSS WESTERN CANADA AND THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS CLOSE OFF A HIGH IN NORTHEAST ALASKA. ACROSS THE CONUS... NEGATIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES ARE FORECAST FOR THE EAST WITH POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES OVER THE SOUTHWEST. THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IN THE TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK IS LOCATED ACROSS THE INTERIOR WEST WHERE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY. BELOW NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS FAVOR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR PARTS OF THE EAST... BUT TEMPERATURE TOOLS DISAGREE AGAIN TODAY FOR THE SOUTHEAST. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST FOR THE FLORIDA PENINSULA WHERE THE CPC AUTO TEMPERATURE FORECAST AND THE CDC TEMPERATURE TOOL FORECAST ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. ELSEWHERE... NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS ALASKA AS THE TROUGH DEPARTS THE ALEUTIANS. PRIOR TO THE OUTLOOK PERIOD... THE DAILY MODELS ARE SHOWING A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CROSSING THE FLORIDA PENINSULA WHICH WOULD OFFER SOME LIMITED DROUGHT AND WILDFIRE RELIEF. HOWEVER... ONCE THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES AWAY... ONLY WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION IS ANTICIPATED DURING DAYS 6-10 FOR THE SOUTHEAST AND FLORIDA. MEANWHILE... ACROSS EXCESSIVELY WET AREAS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS... A DRYING TREND IS ANTICIPATED. ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES... NORTHEAST... AND MID-ATLANTIC... A FAIRLY ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WITH SEVERAL FRONTAL PASSAGES WILL PROMOTE ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION. AS A TROUGH TRACKS FROM THE ALUETIANS TOWARDS BRITISH COLUMBIA... ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION WILL BECOME PROBABLE ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. IF THE RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST IS WEAKER THAN FORECAST... THEN ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITAITON MAY EXTEND INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND NORTHERN PLAINS. FOR TODAYS OUTLOOK... NEAR NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST FOR THOSE AREAS. ELSEWHERE... ACROSS MUCH OF ALASKA... ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY DRIER-THAN-NORMAL CONDITIONS. TODAYS OFFICIAL 500-HPA BLEND CONSISTS OF 20 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...20 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...40 PERCENT OF TODAY'S GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...AND 20 PERCENT OF TODAY'S EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 7. MODEL(S) OF THE DAY: GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD IS AVERAGE... 3 ON A SCALE OF 1 TO 5.... DUE TO FAIR AGREEMENT AMONG THE ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS AND FORECAST TOOLS. THE 6-10 DAY TEMPERATURE PROG IS BASED ON THE KLEIN... NEURAL NET... AND ANALOG SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLENDED HEIGHT FIELD AND FROM THE VARIOUS MODEL SOLUTIONS... THE CPC AUTO TEMPERATURE FORECAST... THE CDC TEMPERATURE TOOL... AND THE NORTH AMERICAN ENSEMBLE FORECAST SYSTEM TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE. THE 6-10 DAY PRECIPITATION PROG IS BASED ON THE NEURAL NET AND ANALOG SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLENDED HEIGHT FIELD AND FROM THE VARIOUS MODEL SOLUTIONS... THE CPC AUTO PRECIPITATION FORECAST... AND THE CDC PRECIPITATION TOOL. 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JUN 07 - 13 2007: GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS ARE IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE 500-HPA HEIGHT FIELD OVER NORTH AMERICA FOR DAYS 8-14. THE PATTERN REMAINS SLIGHTLY PROGRESSIVE FROM THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD AS THE TROUGH ALONG THE EAST COAST MOVES INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WHILE A RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE PLAINS AND MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT POOR AGREEMENT EXISTS BETWEEN THE 0Z AND 6Z GFS WITH THE TWO MODELS COMPLETELY OUT OF PHASE ACROSS THE CONUS. THE 0Z GFS INDICATES ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS ACROSS THE EAST... WHILE THE 6Z GFS MAINTAINS BELOW NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS. FOR A WEEK 2 OUTLOOK... THE BEST APPROACH IS TO RELY ON ENSEMBLE MEAN FORECASTS. IN ADDITION... THE 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN SUPPORTS THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS. SINCE THE CDC HEIGHT FIELD DOES NOT SHOW PROGRESSION TO THE FLOW PATTERN... IT IS DISCOUNTED AS AN OUTLIER TODAY. AS 500-HPA HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE FOR MUCH OF THE CONUS... A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED DURING WEEK 2 WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ANTICIPATED FROM THE SOUTHWEST INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE WEAK TROUGH LOCATED IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC MAY KEEP PARTS OF THE EAST COAST BELOW NORMAL. BELOW NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS FAVOR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WHILE ABOVE NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS FAVOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR ALASKA. AS A TROUGH BECOMES ESTABLISHED NEAR THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND THE DOMINANT RIDGE EXPANDS INTO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS... THE MAIN STORM TRACK WILL SHIFT TOWARDS THE THE U.S.-CANADIAN BORDER. THEREFORE... ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FOR THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST... NORTHERN ROCKIES... NORTHERN PLAINS... AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE EXPANSION OF THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE WILL NOT BENEFIT THE DROUGHT AREAS OF THE SOUTHEAST AND FLORIDA WHERE A RETURN OF DRIER-THAN-NORMAL CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY. NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FOR THE NORTHEAST AND NEW ENGLAND. ACROSS ALASKA... BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE. THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY HEIGHT PROG CONSISTS OF 20 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...20 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...40 PERCENT OF TODAY'S GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...AND 20 PERCENT OF TODAY'S CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11. FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD IS AVERAGE... 3 ON A SCALE OF 1 TO 5... DUE TO REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS OFFSET BY POOR AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE 0Z AND 6Z GFS OPERATIONAL RUNS. THE 8-14 DAY TEMPERATURE PROG IS BASED ON THE KLEIN... NEURAL NET AND ANALOG SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLENDED HEIGHT FIELD AND FROM THE VARIOUS GFS MODEL SOLUTIONS... THE CPC AUTO TEMPERATURE FORECAST... AND THE NORTH AMERICAN ENSEMBLE FORECAST SYSTEM TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE. THE 8-14 DAY PRECIPITATION PROG IS BASED ON THE ANALOG AND NEURAL NET SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLENDED HEIGHT FIELD AND FROM THE VARIOUS GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS... CALIBRATED PRECIPITATION FROM THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS... AND THE CPC AUTO PRECIPITATION FORECAST. FORECASTER: PUGH NOTES: OPERATIONAL CHANGE: AS OF JULY 5 2005 SHADED MAPS HAVE REPLACED THE CONTOUR-ONLY MAPS ON THE CPC WEB SITE. THE CONTOURED MAPS ARE STILL AVAILABLE AT THEIR CURRENT FILE NAMES - SO DIRECT-LINKED USERS ARE NOT AFFECTED. AWIPS GRAPHICS ARE ALSO NOT AFFECTED BY THIS CHANGE. AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OTHERWISE - FORECASTS INCORPORATE FORECASTER INPUT. THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION. THE NARRATIVE DESCRIPTION OF THE FORECAST PATTERNS FOR TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION FOR BOTH THE 6-10 OR 8-14 DAY PERIODS HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. THE STATE TABLES FOR BOTH THE 6-10 AND 8-14 DAY PERIODS ARE NOW CONTAINED IN THIS MESSAGE...AVAILABLE AS PMDMRD ON AWIPS. THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1971-2000 BASE PERIOD MEANS FOR TEMPERATURE...PRECIPITATION...AND 500-HPA HEIGHTS AS REFERENCE IN THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS. THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON JUNE 21. AN UPDATED MONTHLY OUTLOOK FOR JUNE WILL BE RELEASED THURSDAY MAY 31. NEW NOTE EFFECTIVE MAR 16 2004: THE GLOSSARY FORMERLY FOUND AT THIS LOCATION WILL NO LONGER BE TRANSMITTED AS PART OF THIS MESSAGE. IF YOU WISH TO SEE THE DEFINITIONS OF TERMS USED IN THESE MESSAGES... PLEASE GO TO THE CPC WEB PAGE AT (USE LOWER CASE) HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV AND FOLLOW THE APPROPRIATE LINKS. ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3) FOR THE REGION FROM 20N to 70N LATITUDE AND 175E to 60W LONGITUDE INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 19700530 - 19700522 - 19660612 - 19510520 - 19610514 ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4) FOR THE REGION FROM 20N to 70N LATITUDE AND 175E to 60W LONGITUDE INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 19700530 - 19610514 - 19510519 - 19660612 - 19810511 6 to 10 day Outlook Table OUTLOOK FOR JUN 05 - 09, 2007 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON N A OREGON A A NRN CALIF A A SRN CALIF A N IDAHO A A NEVADA A A W MONTANA A A E MONTANA A N WYOMING A N UTAH A N ARIZONA A N COLORADO A N NEW MEXICO A N N DAKOTA N N S DAKOTA N N NEBRASKA N N KANSAS N B OKLAHOMA B B N TEXAS B B S TEXAS N N W TEXAS N N MINNESOTA N N IOWA B N MISSOURI B N ARKANSAS B B LOUISIANA N B WISCONSIN B A ILLINOIS B N MISSISSIPPI B B MICHIGAN B A INDIANA B A OHIO B A KENTUCKY B N TENNESSEE B N ALABAMA N N NEW YORK B A VERMONT N A NEW HAMP N A MAINE N A MASS N A CONN N A RHODE IS N A PENN B A NEW JERSEY B A W VIRGINIA B A MARYLAND B A DELAWARE B A VIRGINIA B A N CAROLINA N N S CAROLINA N N GEORGIA N N FL PNHDL A N FL PENIN A N AK N SLOPE A B AK ALEUTIAN A B AK WESTERN A B AK INT BSN A B AK S INT A B AK SO COAST A B AK PNHDL N N 8 to 14 day Outlook Table OUTLOOK FOR JUN 07 - 13, 2007 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON B A OREGON B N NRN CALIF N N SRN CALIF N N IDAHO N N NEVADA A N W MONTANA B A E MONTANA N A WYOMING N N UTAH A N ARIZONA A N COLORADO A B NEW MEXICO A B N DAKOTA N A S DAKOTA N N NEBRASKA A N KANSAS A B OKLAHOMA A B N TEXAS A B S TEXAS A B W TEXAS A B MINNESOTA N A IOWA A N MISSOURI A B ARKANSAS A B LOUISIANA A B WISCONSIN N A ILLINOIS A N MISSISSIPPI A B MICHIGAN N N INDIANA N N OHIO N B KENTUCKY N B TENNESSEE A B ALABAMA A B NEW YORK N N VERMONT N A NEW HAMP N A MAINE N A MASS N A CONN N N RHODE IS N N PENN N N NEW JERSEY B N W VIRGINIA N B MARYLAND B B DELAWARE B B VIRGINIA B B N CAROLINA B B S CAROLINA N B GEORGIA N B FL PNHDL N B FL PENIN N B AK N SLOPE A N AK ALEUTIAN A B AK WESTERN A B AK INT BSN A B AK S INT A B AK SO COAST A B AK PNHDL B B LEGEND TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN B - BELOW B - BELOW THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS PMDMRD. $$