PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSIONS FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 300 PM EDT WED MAY 23 2007 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK VALID FOR MAY 29 - JUN 02, 2007 THE ECMWF AND GFS ENSEMBLES ARE SIMILAR IN THE DEPICTION OF THE PRIMARY FEATURES OF THE 500 MB HEIGHT FIELD FOR THE 6-10 DAY FORECAST PERIOD. HOWEVER... THESE MODELS ARE NOT AS SIMILAR AS YESTERDAY. BOTH MODELS INDICATE A CLOSED LOW OVER THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS... A RIDGE AXIS THAT IS CENTERED OVER THE CANADIAN ROCKIES ... AND A CLOSED LOW NORTH OF HUDSON BAY. THE 500 MB FLOW IS FORECAST BY THE GFS TO SPLIT WITH A MOSTLY ZONAL NORTHERN STREAM AND A MORE AMPLIFIED SOUTHERN STREAM. IN THE NORTHERN STREAM... THE GFS HAS MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW BUT WITH A SLIGHT RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES AND A SLIGHT TROUGH AXIS WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS. THE ECMWF FORECASTS A SIMILAR TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST... BUT NO DOWNSTREAM TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHEAST. AS THE PERIOD PROGRESSES... THE SURFACE HIGH THAT HAS BEEN PLAGUING THE SOUTHEAST WITH HOT DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST TO MOVE OUT. BOTH MODELS PROJECT SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO THE ALASKAN COAST... BRINGING ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO SOUTHERN ALASKA. NORTHERLY FLOW INTO NORTHERN ALASKA WILL LIKELY KEEP THE TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL THERE. BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY FOR MOST OF ALASKA... BUT THE PANHANDLE SHOULD SEE ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS . FOR THE CONUS... WEAK RIDGING IS FORECAST FOR THE MOUNTAIN WEST... FOLLOWED BY A LOW AMPLITUDE TROUGH AND THEN SOME MORE WEAK RIDGING IN THE EAST. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE CONUS UNDER MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST FOR TEXAS AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT CHANGE FROM YESTERDAY'S FORECAST IS THE SHIFT IN THE PRECIPITATION PATTERN... AS DEPICTED IN MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION TOOLS. ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR MUCH OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS REGION... AS WELL AS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA. WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT HAD BEEN ENTRENCHED OFF OF THE ATLANTIC COAST MOVING OFF... ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST TO RETURN TO THE SOUTHEAST. THE GFS... AND ONLY THE GFS... CONTINUES TO FORECAST A SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM TO APPROACH THE GULF COAST FROM THE CARIBBEAN. THIS COULD OBVIOUSLY HAVE A STRONG IMPACT ON PRECIPITATION IN THE SOUTHEAST. SUBTLE RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS WILL LIKELY BRING BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION. THIS PATTERN IS BEGINNING TO PROVIDE A GLIMMER OF HOPE TO THE MAJOR DROUGHT REGIONS IN THE SOUTHEAST US. TODAYS OFFICIAL 500-HPA BLEND CONSISTS OF 5 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 0Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 8...5 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 6Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 8...5 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL ECMWF CENTERED ON DAY 7...10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...25 PERCENT OF TODAY'S GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...15 PERCENT OF TODAY'S CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...AND 25 PERCENT OF TODAY'S EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 7. MODEL(S) OF THE DAY: GFS SUPERENSEMBLE FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD IS BELOW AVERAGE... 2.5 ON A SCALE OF 1 TO 5.... DUE TO IMPROVED AGREEMENT AMONG THE FORECAST MODELS AND FORECAST TOOLS ...BUT WEAK ANOMALY PATTERNS. THE 6-10 DAY TEMPERATURE PROG IS BASED ON THE KLEIN... NEURAL NET AND ANALOG SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLENDED HEIGHT FIELD AND FROM THE VARIOUS MODEL SOLUTIONS... THE CPC AUTO TEMPERATURE FORECAST... THE CDC TEMPERATURE TOOL... THE KLEIN AND NEURAL NET PROBABILITIES FROM THE VARIOUS ENSEMBLES. THE 6-10 DAY PRECIPITATION PROG IS BASED ON THE ANALOG SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLENDED HEIGHT FIELD AND FROM THE VARIOUS MODEL SOLUTIONS... THE CPC AUTO PRECIPITATION FORECAST... THE CDC PRECIPITATION TOOL... AND DAILY PRECIPITATION FORECASTS FROM THE GFS-BASED AND ECMWF MODELS. 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR MAY 31 - JUN 06, 2007: AVAILABLE FORECAST MODELS ARE IN LESS AGREEMENT TODAY ON THE PROJECTED 500 MB HEIGHT FIELD OVER NORTH AMERICA FOR DAYS 8-14. A CLOSED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS STILL FORECAST OVER THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS... WITH A RIDGE AXIS SITUATED OVER CENTRAL CANADA... WITH ANOTHER LOW OVER THE ENTRANCE TO HUDSON BAY. BOTH THE GFS AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLE FORECASTS FEATURE A WEAK RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN US WITH A TROUGH AXIS OVER THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS. THE GFS ENSEMBLES FEATURE A MORE AMPLIFIED TROUGH IN THE EAST... WHILE THE CANADIAN MODEL FORECASTS A MUCH WEAKER TROUGH. SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IN THE GULF OF ALASKA WILL CAUSE THE TEMPERATURES TO BE ABOVE NORMAL FOR SOUTHERN ALASKA. MOST OF ALASKA WILL SEE LESS PRECIPITATION THAN NORMAL. FOR THE CONUS... THE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW WILL CAUSE THE TEMPERATURES TO BE ABOVE FOR THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN REGIONS. SLIGHT RIDGING OVER THE THE EASTERN CONUS WILL CAUSE TEMPERATURES TO BE ABOVE NORMAL THERE. WITH A MEAN TROUGH FORECAST FOR THE GULF COAST REGION AND SOUTHEAST US... TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE BELOW NORMAL. WITH THIS FORECAST FLOW PATTERN... PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS SHOULD BE ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND THE NORTHEAST... WHILE BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE WESTERN US AND THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY HEIGHT PROG CONSISTS OF 5 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 0Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 11...5 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 6Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 11...20 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...20 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...30 PERCENT OF TODAY'S GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...AND 20 PERCENT OF TODAY'S CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11. FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD IS BELOW AVERAGE... 2 ON A SCALE OF 1 TO 5... DUE TO FAIR AGREEMENT AMONG THE VARIOUS MODELS... DECENT MODEL CONTINUITY... BUT WEAK ANOMALY FIELDS. THE 8-14 DAY TEMPERATURE PROG IS BASED ON THE KLEIN... NEURAL NET AND ANALOG SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLENDED HEIGHT FIELD AND FROM THE VARIOUS MODEL SOLUTIONS... KLEIN AND NEURAL NET PROBABILITIES FROM THE GFS AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLES. THE 8-14 DAY PRECIPITATION PROG IS BASED ON THE ANALOG AND NEURAL NET SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLENDED HEIGHT FIELD AND FROM THE VARIOUS MODEL SOLUTIONS... CALIBRATED PRECIPITATION FROM VARIOUS GFS-BASED MODEL SOLUTIONS... NEURAL NET PROBABILITIES FROM THE GFS AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLES... AND THE CDC PRECIPITATION TOOL. FORECASTER: ARMSTRONG NOTES: OPERATIONAL CHANGE: AS OF JULY 5 2005 SHADED MAPS HAVE REPLACED THE CONTOUR-ONLY MAPS ON THE CPC WEB SITE. THE CONTOURED MAPS ARE STILL AVAILABLE AT THEIR CURRENT FILE NAMES - SO DIRECT-LINKED USERS ARE NOT AFFECTED. AWIPS GRAPHICS ARE ALSO NOT AFFECTED BY THIS CHANGE. AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OTHERWISE - FORECASTS INCORPORATE FORECASTER INPUT. THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION. THE NARRATIVE DESCRIPTION OF THE FORECAST PATTERNS FOR TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION FOR BOTH THE 6-10 OR 8-14 DAY PERIODS HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. THE STATE TABLES FOR BOTH THE 6-10 AND 8-14 DAY PERIODS ARE NOW CONTAINED IN THIS MESSAGE...AVAILABLE AS PMDMRD ON AWIPS. THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1971-2000 BASE PERIOD MEANS FOR TEMPERATURE...PRECIPITATION...AND 500-HPA HEIGHTS AS REFERENCE IN THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS. THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON JUNE 21. NEW NOTE EFFECTIVE MAR 16 2004: THE GLOSSARY FORMERLY FOUND AT THIS LOCATION WILL NO LONGER BE TRANSMITTED AS PART OF THIS MESSAGE. IF YOU WISH TO SEE THE DEFINITIONS OF TERMS USED IN THESE MESSAGES... PLEASE GO TO THE CPC WEB PAGE AT (USE LOWER CASE) HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV AND FOLLOW THE APPROPRIATE LINKS. ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3) FOR THE REGION FROM 20N to 70N LATITUDE AND 175E to 60W LONGITUDE INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 19810509 - 19920523 - 19510512 - 19810527 - 19920530 ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4) FOR THE REGION FROM 20N to 70N LATITUDE AND 175E to 60W LONGITUDE INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 19810510 - 19510512 - 19920524 - 19810527 - 19970529 6 to 10 day Outlook Table OUTLOOK FOR MAY 29 - JUN 02, 2007 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON A B OREGON A B NRN CALIF A B SRN CALIF A B IDAHO A B NEVADA A B W MONTANA A B E MONTANA A B WYOMING A B UTAH A B ARIZONA A N COLORADO A N NEW MEXICO A N N DAKOTA A B S DAKOTA A N NEBRASKA A A KANSAS A A OKLAHOMA N A N TEXAS N A S TEXAS B A W TEXAS N A MINNESOTA A B IOWA A B MISSOURI A N ARKANSAS N A LOUISIANA N A WISCONSIN A B ILLINOIS A B MISSISSIPPI N A MICHIGAN A B INDIANA A N OHIO A A KENTUCKY A A TENNESSEE A A ALABAMA N A NEW YORK A A VERMONT A A NEW HAMP A A MAINE A A MASS A A CONN A A RHODE IS A A PENN A A NEW JERSEY A A W VIRGINIA A A MARYLAND A A DELAWARE A A VIRGINIA A A N CAROLINA A A S CAROLINA A A GEORGIA N A FL PNHDL N A FL PENIN B A AK N SLOPE B B AK ALEUTIAN N B AK WESTERN B B AK INT BSN A B AK S INT A B AK SO COAST A N AK PNHDL A A 8 to 14 day Outlook Table OUTLOOK FOR MAY 31 - JUN 06, 2007 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON A B OREGON A B NRN CALIF A B SRN CALIF A B IDAHO A B NEVADA A B W MONTANA A B E MONTANA A N WYOMING A N UTAH A N ARIZONA A N COLORADO A A NEW MEXICO A A N DAKOTA A B S DAKOTA A N NEBRASKA A N KANSAS A A OKLAHOMA N A N TEXAS B A S TEXAS B A W TEXAS N A MINNESOTA A B IOWA A B MISSOURI A B ARKANSAS B N LOUISIANA B N WISCONSIN A B ILLINOIS N B MISSISSIPPI B N MICHIGAN N N INDIANA N N OHIO A A KENTUCKY N N TENNESSEE B N ALABAMA B N NEW YORK A A VERMONT A A NEW HAMP A N MAINE A N MASS A N CONN A A RHODE IS A N PENN A A NEW JERSEY A A W VIRGINIA A A MARYLAND A A DELAWARE N A VIRGINIA N A N CAROLINA N N S CAROLINA B N GEORGIA B N FL PNHDL B N FL PENIN B N AK N SLOPE N B AK ALEUTIAN N N AK WESTERN N B AK INT BSN N B AK S INT A B AK SO COAST A B AK PNHDL N N LEGEND TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN B - BELOW B - BELOW THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS PMDMRD. $$