PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSIONS FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 300 PM EDT MON APR 23 2007 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK VALID FOR APR 29 - MAY 03, 2007 TODAYS ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS ARE IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE EXPECTED 500-HPA FLOW PATTERN ACROSS NORTH AMERICA DURING THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD. THE VARIOUS GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS INDICATE A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED 500-HPA TROUGH ALONG THE EAST COAST... A MODERATELY DEEP 500-HPA TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST... AND A DOMINANT 500-HPA RIDGE OVER THE WEST-CENTRAL CONUS. THE 12Z ECMWF AND 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS AGREE IN THE LOCATION OF THE AFOREMENTIONED 500-HPA FEATURES BUT THE FLOW PATTERN IS LESS AMPLIFIED. THE GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTION REPRESENTS THE BEST CONTINUITY WITH YESTERDAYS MODEL SOLUTIONS AND IS PREFERRED TODAY. THE OFFICIAL BLEND CHART DEPICTS AN EXPANSIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALY OF +90 METERS OVER THE ROCKIES AND PLAINS WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AND ALASKA. THE DOMINANT RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE WEST-CENTRAL CONUS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FROM THE WEST COAST TO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE TROUGH ALONG THE EAST COAST FAVORS COOLER-THAN-NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST. NEGATIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES SHOULD LEAD TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR EASTERN ALASKA AND THE ALASKAN PANHANDLE. MEANWHILE... DOWNSTREAM OF THE RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE PLAINS ... DRIER-THAN-NORMAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FROM THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE EAST COAST. MOIST PACIFIC FLOW FAVORS ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. MULTIPLE PRECIPITATION TOOLS AND THE CPC AUTO PRECIPITATION FORECAST INDICATE ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. HOWEVER... THE CDC PRECIPITATION TOOL INDICATES HIGH PROBABILITIES OF BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR THE SOUTHWEST. THE MEAN LONGWAVE PATTERN FEATURING A TROUGH IN THE EAST-CENTRAL PACIFIC DOES FAVOR MOIST FLOW INTO THE WEST COAST. THEREFORE... ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST FOR SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. ELSEWHERE... BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF ALASKA EXCLUDING THE ALASKAN PANHANDLE. TODAYS OFFICIAL 500-HPA BLEND CONSISTS OF 20 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...20 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...40 PERCENT OF TODAY'S GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...AND 10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 7. MODEL(S) OF THE DAY: GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD IS ABOVE AVERAGE... 4 ON A SCALE OF 1 TO 5... DUE TO REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODEL SOLUTIONS. THE 6-10 DAY TEMPERATURE PROG IS BASED ON THE KLEIN ... NEURAL NET AND ANALOG SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLENDED HEIGHT FIELD... THE CPC AUTO TEMPERATURE FORECAST... THE CDC TEMPERATURE TOOL... AND KLEIN AND NEURAL NET PROBABLITIES FROM THE VARIOUS ENSEMBLES. THE 6-10 DAY PRECIPITATION PROG IS BASED ON THE ANALOG AND NEURAL NET SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLENDED HEIGHT FIELD... THE CPC AUTO PRECIPITATION FORECAST... CALIBRATED PRECIPITATION PERCENTAGES FROM THE GFS SUPERENSEMBLE... THE CDC PRECIPITATION TOOL... AND AN EXAMINATION OF THE DAILY PRECIPITATION FORECASTS FROM THE 0 AND 6Z GFS. 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR MAY 01 - 07 2007: DURING WEEK 2... THE GFS AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS SHOW SLIGHT PROGRESSION AND LESS AMPLIFICATION OF THE CIRCULATION PATTERN COMPARED TO THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL BLENDED HEIGHT CHART INDICATES A WEAK TROUGH OFF THE EAST COAST AND OVER THE WEST WITH MODEST POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES ACROSS THE PLAINS. AS THE TROUGH PROGRESSES OFF THE EAST COAST... A GRADUAL WARMING TREND IS ANTICIPATED FOR MOST OF THE EAST. HOWEVER... THE POSITION OF THE TROUGH FAVORS EASTERLY ONSHORE FLOW AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE CONUS... ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY CONTINUE. BELOW NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS MAY MAINTAIN BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR PARTS OF ALASKA. ALONG WITH THE WARMER TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE EAST... DRIER-THAN-NORMAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. PRECIPITATION TOOLS SUGGEST THAT THE HIGHEST LIKELIHOOD FOR ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION EXISTS FOR THE ALASKAN PANHANDLE... NORTHWEST WASHINGTON... AND THE NORTHERN PLAINS WHERE ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST. ELSEWHERE... BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE FOR THE ALEUTIANS AND WESTERN ALASKA. THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY HEIGHT PROG CONSISTS OF 25 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...25 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...AND 50 PERCENT OF TODAY'S GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11. FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD IS AVERAGE... 3 ON A SCALE OF 1 TO 5 DUE TO A LESS AMPLIFIED FLOW PATTERN COMPARED TO THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD. THE 8-14 DAY TEMPERATURE PROG IS BASED ON THE ANALOG... NEURAL NET... AND KLEIN SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLENDED HEIGHT FIELD... THE CPC AUTO TEMPERATURE FORECAST... AND THE CDC TEMPERATURE TOOL. THE 8-14 DAY PRECIPITATION PROG IS BASED ON THE ANALOG AND NEURAL NET SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLENDED HEIGHT FIELD... THE CPC AUTO PRECIPITATION FORECAST... THE CDC PRECIPITATION TOOL... AND THE NEURAL NET PROBABILITIES FROM THE GFS AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLES. FORECASTER: PUGH NOTES: OPERATIONAL CHANGE: AS OF JULY 5 2005 SHADED MAPS HAVE REPLACED THE CONTOUR-ONLY MAPS ON THE CPC WEB SITE. THE CONTOURED MAPS ARE STILL AVAILABLE AT THEIR CURRENT FILE NAMES - SO DIRECT-LINKED USERS ARE NOT AFFECTED. AWIPS GRAPHICS ARE ALSO NOT AFFECTED BY THIS CHANGE. AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OTHERWISE - FORECASTS INCORPORATE FORECASTER INPUT. THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION. THE NARRATIVE DESCRIPTION OF THE FORECAST PATTERNS FOR TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION FOR BOTH THE 6-10 OR 8-14 DAY PERIODS HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. THE STATE TABLES FOR BOTH THE 6-10 AND 8-14 DAY PERIODS ARE NOW CONTAINED IN THIS MESSAGE...AVAILABLE AS PMDMRD ON AWIPS. THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1971-2000 BASE PERIOD MEANS FOR TEMPERATURE...PRECIPITATION...AND 500-HPA HEIGHTS AS REFERENCE IN THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS. THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON MAY 17. NEW NOTE EFFECTIVE MAR 16 2004: THE GLOSSARY FORMERLY FOUND AT THIS LOCATION WILL NO LONGER BE TRANSMITTED AS PART OF THIS MESSAGE. IF YOU WISH TO SEE THE DEFINITIONS OF TERMS USED IN THESE MESSAGES... PLEASE GO TO THE CPC WEB PAGE AT (USE LOWER CASE) HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV AND FOLLOW THE APPROPRIATE LINKS. ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3) FOR THE REGION FROM 20N to 70N LATITUDE AND 175E to 60W LONGITUDE INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 19700414 - 19580404 - 19980405 - 19750407 - 19550501 ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4) FOR THE REGION FROM 20N to 70N LATITUDE AND 175E to 60W LONGITUDE INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 19980405 - 19700414 - 19750407 - 19880502 - 19550501 6 to 10 day Outlook Table OUTLOOK FOR APR 29 - MAY 03, 2007 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON A A OREGON A A NRN CALIF A N SRN CALIF A N IDAHO A N NEVADA A N W MONTANA A N E MONTANA A N WYOMING A N UTAH A N ARIZONA A N COLORADO A N NEW MEXICO A N N DAKOTA A N S DAKOTA A N NEBRASKA A N KANSAS A B OKLAHOMA A B N TEXAS A B S TEXAS N B W TEXAS A B MINNESOTA A B IOWA A B MISSOURI A B ARKANSAS A B LOUISIANA A B WISCONSIN A B ILLINOIS A B MISSISSIPPI A B MICHIGAN N B INDIANA A B OHIO N B KENTUCKY N B TENNESSEE N B ALABAMA N B NEW YORK B B VERMONT B N NEW HAMP B N MAINE B N MASS B N CONN B N RHODE IS B N PENN B B NEW JERSEY B B W VIRGINIA N B MARYLAND B B DELAWARE B B VIRGINIA N B N CAROLINA N B S CAROLINA N B GEORGIA N B FL PNHDL N B FL PENIN N B AK N SLOPE B N AK ALEUTIAN N B AK WESTERN N B AK INT BSN B N AK S INT B B AK SO COAST B B AK PNHDL B A 8 to 14 day Outlook Table OUTLOOK FOR MAY 01 - 07, 2007 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON N N OREGON N N NRN CALIF A B SRN CALIF A B IDAHO N N NEVADA A B W MONTANA N N E MONTANA A A WYOMING A N UTAH A B ARIZONA A B COLORADO A N NEW MEXICO A B N DAKOTA A A S DAKOTA A A NEBRASKA A N KANSAS A N OKLAHOMA A B N TEXAS A B S TEXAS A B W TEXAS A B MINNESOTA A N IOWA A N MISSOURI A B ARKANSAS A B LOUISIANA A B WISCONSIN A N ILLINOIS A B MISSISSIPPI A B MICHIGAN A B INDIANA A B OHIO A B KENTUCKY A B TENNESSEE A B ALABAMA A B NEW YORK N B VERMONT N B NEW HAMP N B MAINE N B MASS N B CONN N B RHODE IS N B PENN A B NEW JERSEY N B W VIRGINIA A B MARYLAND N B DELAWARE N B VIRGINIA N B N CAROLINA N B S CAROLINA N B GEORGIA A B FL PNHDL N B FL PENIN B B AK N SLOPE B B AK ALEUTIAN N B AK WESTERN N B AK INT BSN B B AK S INT N B AK SO COAST N B AK PNHDL B A LEGEND TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN B - BELOW B - BELOW THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS PMDMRD. $$