PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSIONS FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 300 PM EDT MON APR 16 2007 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK VALID FOR APR 22 - 26 2007 THE 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN AND 12Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE EXPECTED FLOW PATTERN OVER THE U.S. DURING THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD. RIDGES ARE PROGGED OVER THE EASTERN CONUS AND WESTERN CANADA/EASTERN ALASKA WHILE TROUGHS ARE FORECAST OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND WESTERN ALASKA. THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN IS A LITTLE LESS PROGRESSIVE WITH THE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS AND FASTER TO RAISE HEIGHTS OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES COMPARED TO THE 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN. THE CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN IS LESS AMPLIFIED AND MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE MAIN CIRCULATION FEATURES COMPARED TO THE 0Z GFS AND 12Z ECWMF ENSEMBLE MEANS. THE OPERATIONAL 0Z AND 6Z GFS AND OPERATIONAL 12Z ECMWF ARE BASICALLY IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THEIR RESPECTIVE ENSEMBLE MEANS ALTHOUGH AS USUAL THE OPERATIONAL RUNS ARE SOMEWHAT MORE AMPLFIED... AND THE OPERATIONAL 0Z GFS DEPICTS A TROUGH UNDERCUTTING THE RIDGE FORECAST OVER EASTERN ALASKA. A LATE PEEK AT THE 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN INDICATES IT IS A LITTLE LESS AMPLIFIED AND MORE PROGRESSIVE COMPARED TO THE 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN. 500-HPA HEIGHTS ARE GENERALLY FORECAST TO BE ABOVE NORMAL OVER THE EASTERN CONUS AND NORTHERN ALASKA AND NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL OVER MOST OF THE WESTERN CONUS AND THE REMAINDER OF ALASKA. THE MODELS GENERALLY SHOW FIARLY GOOD CONTINUITY WITH RESPECT TO THEIR SOLUTIONS FROM YESTERDAY. THE PNA INDEX WHICH RECENTLY HAS BEEN POSITIVE IS FORECAST TO DECREASE IN MAGNITUDE BUT REMAIN POSITIVE BY DAY 7... TREND TOWARDS ZERO BY DAY 10 AND REMAIN NEAR ZERO THORUGH DAY 14. THE NAO INDEX WHICH RECENTLY HAS BEEN SLIGHTLY POSITIVE IS FORECAST TO TREND NEAR ZERO OR BECOME WEAKLY NEGATIVE BY DAY 7... THEN BECOME WEAKLY POSITIVE BY DAY 10 AND REMAIN WEAKLY POSITIVE THROUGH DAY 14. THE SPREAD AMONG THE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS FOR BOTH INDICES BECOMES FAIRLY LARGE BY DAY 14. THE RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED AREA OF ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS SHOULD KEEP MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS WARMER AND DRIER THAN NORMAL. MUCH OF THE WEST/CENTRAL U.S. SHOULD BE WETTER THAN NORMAL DUE TO ANOMALOUS SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THE EASTERN RIDGE AND AHEAD OF THE TROUGH OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. MUCH OF THE WESTERN CONUS SHOULD HAVE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES DUE TO ANOMALOUS NORTHERLY FLOW AROUND THE WESTERN TROUGH AND BELOW NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS. EASTERN ALASKA SHOULD EXPERIENCE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES DUE TO THE RIDGE FORECAST OVER THE EASTERN PART OF THE STATE. SOUTHEASTERN COASTAL ALASKA MAY HAVE ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION DUE TO ANOMALOUS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN PART OF THE STATE. TODAYS OFFICIAL 500-HPA BLEND CONSISTS OF 10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 0Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 8...10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 6Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 8...10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL ECMWF CENTERED ON DAY 7...25 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...15 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...AND 20 PERCENT OF TODAY'S EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 7. MODEL(S) OF THE DAY: 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD IS ABOVE AVERAGE... 4 ON A SCALE OF 1 TO 5... DUE TO GOOD CONTINUITY FROM YESTERDAYS FORECAST... GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE ENSEMBLE FORECASTS TODAY... AND FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST TOOLS THE 6-10 DAY TEMPERATURE PROG IS BASED ON THE KLEIN ... NEURAL NET AND ANALOG SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLENDED HEIGHT FIELD... THE CPC AUTO TEMPERATURE FORECAST... THE NORTH AMERICAN ENSEMBLE FORECAST SYSTEM TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE... THE CDC RE-FORECAST TEMPERATURE TOOL... KLEIN AND NEYRAL NET PROBABLITIES FROM THE VARIOUS ENSEMBLES... AND BIAS-CORRECTED 850-HPA TEMPERATURES FROM THE OPERATIONAL 0Z GFS. THE 6-10 DAY PRECIPITATION PROG IS BASED ON THE ANALOG AND NEURAL NET SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLENDED HEIGHT FIELD... THE CPC AUTO PRECIPITATION FORECAST... CPC CALIBRATED PRECIPITATION PERCENTAGES FROM THE GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEMBERS... AND THE CDC RE-FORECAST PRECIPITATION TOOL. 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR APR 24 - 30 2007: THE GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN FOR WEEK 2 PREDICTS THE OVERALL CIRCULATION PATTERN TO BE SLOWLY PROGRESSIVE AND SLIGHTLY DEAMPLIIED FROM THAT FORECAST FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD. THE D+11 CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN IS ALSO PROGESSIVE COMPARED TO ITS D+8 FORECAST BUT IS QUICKER TO RAISE HEIGHTS OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS COMPARED TO THE GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN. THE OPERATIONAL 0Z AND 6Z GFS ARE GENERALLY MORE AMPLIFIED AND MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE FORECAST FLOW PATTERN COMPARED TO THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS. HEIGHTS ARE GENERALLY FORECAST TO BE ABOVE NORMAL ALONG THE EAST AND WEST COASTS AND BELOW NORMAL OVER MOST OF THE CENTRAL CONUS AND ALASKA. THE MODELS GENERALLY SHOW GOOD CONTINUITY WITH RESPECT TO THEIR SOLUTIONS FROM YESTERDAY ALTHOUGH TODAYS OPERATIONAL 0Z AND 6Z GFS LEAVE MORE TROUGH ENERGY BEHIND OVER THE SOUTHWEST CONUS COMPARED TO YESTERDAYS SOLUTIONS. THE 8-14 DAY TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION ANOMALY PATTERNS ARE GENERALLY SIMILAR TO THE PATTERNS FORECAST FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD EXCEPT DISPLACED SOMEWHAT EASTWARD WHICH IS CONSISTENT WITH THE FORECAST OF A PROGRESSIVE CIRCULATION PATTERN. THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY HEIGHT PROG CONSISTS OF 5 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 0Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 11...10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 6Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 11...25 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...20 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...25 PERCENT OF TODAY'S GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...AND 15 PERCENT OF TODAY'S CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11. FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD IS ABOUT AVERAGE... 3 ON A SCALE OF 1 TO 5 DUE TO FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODEL HEIGHT FORECASTS BUT ONLY FAIR AGREEMENT AMONG THE FORECAST TOOLS. THE 8-14 DAY TEMPERATURE PROG IS BASED ON THE ANALOG... NEURAL NET AND KLEIN SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLENDED HEIGHT FIELD... THE CPC AUTO TEMPERATURE FORECAST... THE NORTH AMERICAN ENSEMBLE FORECAST SYSTEM TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE... THE CDC RE-FORECAST TEMPERATURE TOOL... BIAS-CORRECTED 850-HPA TEMPEARTURES FROM THE 0Z OPERATIONAL GFS AND THE KLEIN AND NEURAL NET PROBABILITIES FROM THE GFS AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLES. THE 8-14 DAY PRECIPITATION PROG IS BASED ON THE ANALOG AND NEURAL NET SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLENDED HEIGHT FIELD... THE CPC AUTO PRECIPITATION FORECAST... THE CPC CALIBRATED PRECIPITATION PERCENTAGES FROM THE GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEMBERS... AND THE CDC RE-FORECAST PRECIPITATION TOOL. FORECASTER: R. SCHECHTER NOTES: OPERATIONAL CHANGE: AS OF JULY 5 2005 SHADED MAPS HAVE REPLACED THE CONTOUR-ONLY MAPS ON THE CPC WEB SITE. THE CONTOURED MAPS ARE STILL AVAILABLE AT THEIR CURRENT FILE NAMES - SO DIRECT-LINKED USERS ARE NOT AFFECTED. AWIPS GRAPHICS ARE ALSO NOT AFFECTED BY THIS CHANGE. AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OTHERWISE - FORECASTS INCORPORATE FORECASTER INPUT. THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION. THE NARRATIVE DESCRIPTION OF THE FORECAST PATTERNS FOR TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION FOR BOTH THE 6-10 OR 8-14 DAY PERIODS HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. THE STATE TABLES FOR BOTH THE 6-10 AND 8-14 DAY PERIODS ARE NOW CONTAINED IN THIS MESSAGE...AVAILABLE AS PMDMRD ON AWIPS. THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1971-2000 BASE PERIOD MEANS FOR TEMPERATURE...PRECIPITATION...AND 500-HPA HEIGHTS AS REFERENCE IN THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS. THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON APRIL 19. NEW NOTE EFFECTIVE MAR 16 2004: THE GLOSSARY FORMERLY FOUND AT THIS LOCATION WILL NO LONGER BE TRANSMITTED AS PART OF THIS MESSAGE. IF YOU WISH TO SEE THE DEFINITIONS OF TERMS USED IN THESE MESSAGES... PLEASE GO TO THE CPC WEB PAGE AT (USE LOWER CASE) HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV AND FOLLOW THE APPROPRIATE LINKS. ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3) FOR THE REGION FROM 20N to 70N LATITUDE AND 175E to 60W LONGITUDE INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 19830402 - 19930414 - 19840422 - 19970426 - 19530419 ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4) FOR THE REGION FROM 20N to 70N LATITUDE AND 175E to 60W LONGITUDE INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 19830401 - 19970425 - 19530418 - 19930414 - 19830326 6 to 10 day Outlook Table OUTLOOK FOR APR 22 - 26, 2007 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON N B OREGON B B NRN CALIF N N SRN CALIF N N IDAHO B N NEVADA B N W MONTANA B N E MONTANA B A WYOMING B A UTAH B A ARIZONA B A COLORADO B A NEW MEXICO B A N DAKOTA N A S DAKOTA N A NEBRASKA N A KANSAS N A OKLAHOMA N A N TEXAS N A S TEXAS A A W TEXAS N A MINNESOTA N A IOWA N A MISSOURI A A ARKANSAS A A LOUISIANA A A WISCONSIN A A ILLINOIS A A MISSISSIPPI A N MICHIGAN A A INDIANA A N OHIO A N KENTUCKY A N TENNESSEE A N ALABAMA A N NEW YORK A N VERMONT A N NEW HAMP A B MAINE N N MASS A B CONN A B RHODE IS A B PENN A N NEW JERSEY A B W VIRGINIA A B MARYLAND A B DELAWARE A B VIRGINIA A B N CAROLINA A B S CAROLINA A B GEORGIA A B FL PNHDL A B FL PENIN A B AK N SLOPE A N AK ALEUTIAN N N AK WESTERN N N AK INT BSN A N AK S INT N A AK SO COAST N A AK PNHDL N A 8 to 14 day Outlook Table OUTLOOK FOR APR 24 - 30, 2007 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON N N OREGON N B NRN CALIF A B SRN CALIF A B IDAHO N B NEVADA N B W MONTANA A N E MONTANA N N WYOMING N B UTAH N B ARIZONA N B COLORADO B B NEW MEXICO B B N DAKOTA N N S DAKOTA B N NEBRASKA B N KANSAS B N OKLAHOMA N N N TEXAS N A S TEXAS N A W TEXAS B N MINNESOTA N A IOWA N N MISSOURI N N ARKANSAS N A LOUISIANA N A WISCONSIN N A ILLINOIS N N MISSISSIPPI A A MICHIGAN N A INDIANA A N OHIO A N KENTUCKY A A TENNESSEE A A ALABAMA A A NEW YORK N N VERMONT N N NEW HAMP N N MAINE N N MASS A N CONN A N RHODE IS A N PENN A N NEW JERSEY A N W VIRGINIA A N MARYLAND A N DELAWARE A N VIRGINIA A N N CAROLINA A A S CAROLINA A A GEORGIA A A FL PNHDL A A FL PENIN A N AK N SLOPE A B AK ALEUTIAN N N AK WESTERN N N AK INT BSN A N AK S INT B A AK SO COAST B A AK PNHDL B A LEGEND TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN B - BELOW B - BELOW THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS PMDMRD. $$