PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSIONS FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 300 PM EDT MON APR 09 2007 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK VALID FOR APR 15 - 19 2007 TODAYS NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE LARGE SCALE FORECAST 500-HPA HEIGHT PATTERN OVER NORTH AMERICA. MOST MODELS CONTINUE TO FORECAST BELOW NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS OVER SOUTHERN CANADA AND MOST OF THE CONUS EXCEPT FOR THE FAR WEST. MODELS ALSO AGREE ON AN EXTENSIVE AREA OF ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN CANADA JOINING WITH THE NORTHWESTERN ATLANTIC... AND A CONCENTRATED POLAR LOW OVER THE ARCTIC OCEAN. ENHANCED WESTERLIES EXTEND ACROSS THE PACIFIC AT MID-LATITUDES... BUT THE FLOW IS SPLIT FROM THE CONUS ACROSS THE ATLANTIC THROUGH EUROPE AND INTO CENTRAL ASIA. MODELS DIFFER ON THE AMOUNT OF RIDGING OFF THE WEST COAST AND ASSOCIATED DOWN STREAM TROUGHING... WITH THE HIGH RESOLUTION RUNS FAVORING A SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMPLITUDE FLOW THAN THE ENSEMBLE MEANS FROM BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL OVER MUCH OF THE CONUS EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE IN RESPONSE TO GENERALLY BELOW NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS. THE PATTERN FAVORS AN ACTIVE STORM TRACK ACROSS THE CONUS... BUT THE MEAN RIDGE PREDICTED OFF THE WEST COAST AND MEAN TROUGH FORECAST OVER THE EAST WOULD REDUCE THE AMOUNT OF SOUTHERLY FLOW AND MOISTURE CONTENT AVAILABLE TO MOST OF THE EXPECTED DISTURBANCES. ALASKA IS TO THE NORTH OF THE PREDICTED PACIFIC STORM TRACK... SUGGESTING BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR MUCH OF THE INTERIOR OF THE STATE... ALTHOUGH SOME TOOLS SUGGEST THAT NEAR AND ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION COULD OCCUR ALONG THE SOUTH COAST AND PANHANDLE AREAS. TODAYS OFFICIAL 500-HPA BLEND CONSISTS OF 10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL ECMWF CENTERED ON DAY 7...20 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...20 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...20 PERCENT OF TODAY'S GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...AND 20 PERCENT OF TODAY'S EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 7. MODEL(S) OF THE DAY: NO STRONG PREFERENCE... WITH SLIGHTLY GREATER WEIGHTS ON THE EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN AND THE RECENT GFS ENSEMBLE MEANS FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD IS AVERAGE... 3 ON A SCALE OF 1 TO 5... DUE TO GOOD CONTINUITY FROM RECENT FORECASTS AND CONSISTENCY AMONG MODELS REASONABLE TELECONNECTIVITY AMONG THE PRINCIPAL ANOMALY CENTERS... OFFSET SOMEWHAT BY ONLY A FAIR ANALOG MATCH AND A RECENT DECLINE IN MODEL SKILL... ESPECIALLY AMONG MOST OF THE ENSEMBLE MEANS... WHICH ARE USUALLY THE MORE SKILLFUL MODELS. THE 6-10 DAY TEMPERATURE PROG IS BASED ON THE KLEIN AND ANALOG SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLENDED HEIGHT FIELD... THE CPC AUTO TEMPERATURE FORECAST... THE NORTH AMRICAN ENSEMBLE FORECAST SYSTEM GUIDANCE... AND THE CDC RE-FORECAST TEMPERATURE TOOL. THE 6-10 DAY PRECIPITATION PROG IS BASED ON THE ANALOG AND NEURAL NET SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLENDED HEIGHT FIELD... THE CPC AUTO PRECIPITATION FORECAST... CPC CALIBRATED PRECIPITATION FROM THE 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE AND OPERATIONAL MODEL... AND THE CDC RE-FORECAST PRECIPITATION TOOL. 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR APR 17 - 23 2007: MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT ON THE PREDICTED LARGE SCALE 500-HPA CIRCULATION PATTERN FOR THE 8 TO 14 DAY PERIOD. MOST MODELS AGREE THAT THE UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS IN THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL IN A BROAD TROUGH THAT EXTENDS AT LEAST FROM THE ROCKIES TO THE EAST COAST... A PATTERN SIMILAR TO THAT PREDICTED FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD. MODELS DIFFER ON THE FLOW PATTERN OFF THE WEST COAST... WITH THE 00Z AND 06Z HIGH RESOLUTION GFS SHARPLY DIFFERING ON THE LOCATION OF A RIDGE EITHER CONFINED TO THE EAST PACIFIC OR POSSIBLY EXTENDING INTO THE WESTERN U.S. ... WHILE THE GFS AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEANS CONTINUE TO PREDICT MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW BUT WITH MUCH WEAKER ANOMALIES THAN THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS... ESPECIALLY OVER THE CONUS. THERE IS BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE AREA OF ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS PREDICTED TO EXTEND FROM THE ATLANTIC NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS NORTHEASTERN CANADA... AND TELECONNECTIONS FROM A POSITIVE 500-HPA CENTER EAST OF NEWFOUNDLAND WERE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH THE REST OF THE FORECAST HEIGHT PATTERN OVER NORTH AMERICA AND THE ATLANTIC. THE BLENDED HEIGHT PROG SHOWS A 500-HPA CIRCULATION PATTERN QUITE SIMILAR TO THAT OF THE 6 TO 10 DAY PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY HEIGHT PROG CONSISTS OF 10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 0Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 11...10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 6Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 11...10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S DAVA CENTERED ON DAY 11...20 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...20 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...20 PERCENT OF TODAY'S GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...AND 10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11. FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD IS BELOW AVERAGE... 2 ON A SCALE OF 1 TO 5. ALTHOUGH THE GFS-BASED ENSEMBLE MEANS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A PATTERN SIMILAR TO THAT FORECAST FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD... THE CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN HAD THE EASTERN TROUGH LOCATED FURTHER TO THE WEST... AND THE INDIVIDUAL GFS HIGH RESOLUTION RUNS HAD NOTICEABLY HIGHER AMPLITUDE BUT POOR AGREEMENT ON THE FORECAST PHASE OF THE CIRCULATION FEATURES FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC ACROSS THE CONUS TO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE 8-14 DAY TEMPERATURE PROG IS BASED ON THE ANALOG... NEUTRAL NET AND KLEIN SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLENDED HEIGHT FIELD... THE CPC AUTO TEMPERATURE FORECAST... THE NORTH AMERICAN ENSEMBLE FORECAST SYSTEM TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE... AND THE CDC RE-FORECAST TEMPERATURE TOOL. THE 8-14 DAY PRECIPITATION PROG IS BASED ON THE ANALOG SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLENDED HEIGHT FIELD... THE CPC AUTO PRECIPITATION FORECAST... CPC CALIBRATED PRECIPITATION FROM THE 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE AND OPERATIONAL MODEL... AND THE CDC RE-FORECAST PRECIPITATION TOOL. FORECASTER: A. J. WAGNER NOTES: OPERATIONAL CHANGE: AS OF JULY 5 2005 SHADED MAPS HAVE REPLACED THE CONTOUR-ONLY MAPS ON THE CPC WEB SITE. THE CONTOURED MAPS ARE STILL AVAILABLE AT THEIR CURRENT FILE NAMES - SO DIRECT-LINKED USERS ARE NOT AFFECTED. AWIPS GRAPHICS ARE ALSO NOT AFFECTED BY THIS CHANGE. AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OTHERWISE - FORECASTS INCORPORATE FORECASTER INPUT. THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION. THE NARRATIVE DESCRIPTION OF THE FORECAST PATTERNS FOR TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION FOR BOTH THE 6-10 OR 8-14 DAY PERIODS HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. THE STATE TABLES FOR BOTH THE 6-10 AND 8-14 DAY PERIODS ARE NOW CONTAINED IN THIS MESSAGE...AVAILABLE AS PMDMRD ON AWIPS. THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1971-2000 BASE PERIOD MEANS FOR TEMPERATURE...PRECIPITATION...AND 500-HPA HEIGHTS AS REFERENCE IN THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS. THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON APRIL 19. NEW NOTE EFFECTIVE MAR 16 2004: THE GLOSSARY FORMERLY FOUND AT THIS LOCATION WILL NO LONGER BE TRANSMITTED AS PART OF THIS MESSAGE. IF YOU WISH TO SEE THE DEFINITIONS OF TERMS USED IN THESE MESSAGES... PLEASE GO TO THE CPC WEB PAGE AT (USE LOWER CASE) HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV AND FOLLOW THE APPROPRIATE LINKS. ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3) FOR THE REGION FROM 20N to 70N LATITUDE AND 175E to 60W LONGITUDE INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 19880414 - 19970423 - 19660328 - 19920331 - 19810322 ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4) FOR THE REGION FROM 20N to 70N LATITUDE AND 175E to 60W LONGITUDE INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 19880414 - 19970422 - 19810322 - 19920330 - 19570328 6 to 10 day Outlook Table OUTLOOK FOR APR 15 - 19, 2007 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON N A OREGON N A NRN CALIF A N SRN CALIF A N IDAHO N A NEVADA N A W MONTANA N A E MONTANA N N WYOMING N A UTAH N A ARIZONA A B COLORADO B A NEW MEXICO N B N DAKOTA N N S DAKOTA B A NEBRASKA B A KANSAS B A OKLAHOMA B N N TEXAS B N S TEXAS N B W TEXAS B B MINNESOTA B A IOWA B A MISSOURI B A ARKANSAS B A LOUISIANA N N WISCONSIN B A ILLINOIS B A MISSISSIPPI B N MICHIGAN B A INDIANA B A OHIO B A KENTUCKY B A TENNESSEE B A ALABAMA B N NEW YORK B A VERMONT B A NEW HAMP B A MAINE B A MASS B A CONN B A RHODE IS B A PENN B A NEW JERSEY B A W VIRGINIA B A MARYLAND B A DELAWARE B A VIRGINIA B A N CAROLINA B N S CAROLINA B N GEORGIA B N FL PNHDL N N FL PENIN N B AK N SLOPE N N AK ALEUTIAN B N AK WESTERN N B AK INT BSN N N AK S INT A N AK SO COAST A N AK PNHDL N N 8 to 14 day Outlook Table OUTLOOK FOR APR 17 - 23, 2007 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON N N OREGON A B NRN CALIF A B SRN CALIF A B IDAHO A B NEVADA A B W MONTANA N N E MONTANA N N WYOMING N N UTAH A B ARIZONA A B COLORADO N B NEW MEXICO N B N DAKOTA N N S DAKOTA B N NEBRASKA B B KANSAS B B OKLAHOMA B B N TEXAS B B S TEXAS N B W TEXAS N B MINNESOTA B N IOWA B B MISSOURI B B ARKANSAS B B LOUISIANA B N WISCONSIN B N ILLINOIS B B MISSISSIPPI B N MICHIGAN B N INDIANA B B OHIO B N KENTUCKY B N TENNESSEE B N ALABAMA B N NEW YORK B A VERMONT B A NEW HAMP B A MAINE N A MASS B A CONN B A RHODE IS B A PENN B A NEW JERSEY B A W VIRGINIA B N MARYLAND B A DELAWARE B A VIRGINIA B N N CAROLINA B N S CAROLINA B N GEORGIA B N FL PNHDL B N FL PENIN N N AK N SLOPE N B AK ALEUTIAN B N AK WESTERN N B AK INT BSN A B AK S INT A N AK SO COAST A A AK PNHDL N A LEGEND TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN B - BELOW B - BELOW THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS PMDMRD. $$