PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSIONS FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 300 PM EDT THU APR 05 2007 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK VALID FOR APR 11 - 15 2007 TODAYS NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE LARGE SCALE FORECAST 500-HPA HEIGHT PATTERN OVER NORTH AMERICA. MOST MODELS PREDICT A BROAD TROUGH OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC OCEAN WITH MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW EXTENDING EASTWARD OVER NORTH AMERICA. THE 500-HPA HEIGHTS ARE PREDICTED TO BE BELOW NORMAL OVER MOST OF NORTH AMERICA... INDICATING THAT THE FORECAST STORM TRACK WILL BE SOUTH OF ITS NORMAL POSITION FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THIS WILL INCREASE THE CHANCES FOR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER MUCH OF THE CONUS. AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE COUNTRY DUE TO SHORT WAVES EMBEDDED IN THE ZONAL FLOW BUT MODELS PROVIDE NO CLEAR CONSENSUS ON THE INTENSITY OF SHORT WAVES... SO THE PRECIPITATION FORECAST IS QUITE UNCERTIAN EXCEPT FOR AREAS NEAR THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WHERE ONSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO ENHANCE THE CHANCES OF ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS. ALASKA IS WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE PREDICTED PACIFIC STORM TRACK... SUGGESTING BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR MUCH OF THE STATE. TODAYS OFFICIAL 500-HPA BLEND CONSISTS OF 10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 0Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 8...10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 6Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 8...10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL ECMWF CENTERED ON DAY 7...20 PERCENT OF TODAY'S GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...20 PERCENT OF TODAY'S CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...AND 30 PERCENT OF TODAY'S EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 7. MODEL(S) OF THE DAY: EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD IS AVERAGE... 3 ON A SCALE OF 1 TO 5. THE 6-10 DAY TEMPERATURE PROG IS BASED ON THE KLEIN AND ANALOG SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLENDED HEIGHT FIELD... THE CPC AUTO TEMPERATURE FORECAST... THE NORTH AMERICAN ENSEMBLE FORECAST SYSTEM TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE FROM THE GFS AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLES... AND THE CDC RE-FORECAST TEMPERATURE TOOL. THE 6-10 DAY PRECIPITATION PROG IS BASED ON THE ANALOG SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLENDED HEIGHT FIELD... THE CPC AUTO PRECIPITATION FORECAST... CPC CALIBRATED PRECIPITATION FROM THE 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE AND OPERATIONAL MODEL... AND THE CDC RE-FORECAST PRECIPITATION TOOL. 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR APR 13 - 19 2007: MODELS AGREE REASONABLY WELL ON THE LARGE SCALE 500-HPA CIRCULATION PATTERN FOR THE 8 TO 14 DAY PERIOD. THE 500-HPA HEIGHTS INCREASE SLIGHTLY OVER MUCH OF THE NORTH AMERICAN REGION BETWEEN THE 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY PERIOD... ALTHOUGH HEIGHTS ARE STILL PREDICTED TO AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL OVER MOST OF THE CONUS AND ALASKA. THE FLOW PATTERN IS PREDICTED TO REMAIN MOSTLY ZONAL OVER THE CONUS AND THE 8 TO 14 DAY PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO FEATURE AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN FOR MOST OF THE COUNTRY. THE CHANCES OF ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST TO BE ELEVATED FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY DUE TO AN ACTIVE STORM TRACK ASSOCIATED WITH THE ENHANCED WESTERLIES PREDICTED OVER THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC. TODAYS TOOLS SHOW A CONSENSUS FOR ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND FOR BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IN THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. ALASKAN PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BE BELOW MEDIAN OVER MOST OF THE STATE. THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY HEIGHT PROG CONSISTS OF 10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 0Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 11...10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 6Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 11...10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...30 PERCENT OF TODAY'S GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...AND 40 PERCENT OF TODAY'S CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11. FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD IS ABOUT AVERAGE... 3 ON A SCALE OF 1 TO 5. THE 8-14 DAY TEMPERATURE PROG IS BASED ON THE ANALOG AND KLEIN SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLENDED HEIGHT FIELD... THE CPC AUTO TEMPERATURE FORECAST... THE NORTH AMERICAN ENSEMBLE FORECAST SYSTEM TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE FROM THE GFS AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLES... AND THE CDC RE-FORECAST TEMPERATURE TOOL. THE 8-14 DAY PRECIPITATION PROG IS BASED ON THE ANALOG SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLENDED HEIGHT FIELD... THE CPC AUTO PRECIPITATION FORECAST... CPC CALIBRATED PRECIPITATION FROM THE 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE AND OPERATIONAL MODEL... AND THE CDC RE-FORECAST PRECIPITATION TOOL. FORECASTER: D. UNGER NOTES: OPERATIONAL CHANGE: AS OF JULY 5 2005 SHADED MAPS HAVE REPLACED THE CONTOUR-ONLY MAPS ON THE CPC WEB SITE. THE CONTOURED MAPS ARE STILL AVAILABLE AT THEIR CURRENT FILE NAMES - SO DIRECT-LINKED USERS ARE NOT AFFECTED. AWIPS GRAPHICS ARE ALSO NOT AFFECTED BY THIS CHANGE. AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OTHERWISE - FORECASTS INCORPORATE FORECASTER INPUT. THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION. THE NARRATIVE DESCRIPTION OF THE FORECAST PATTERNS FOR TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION FOR BOTH THE 6-10 OR 8-14 DAY PERIODS HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. THE STATE TABLES FOR BOTH THE 6-10 AND 8-14 DAY PERIODS ARE NOW CONTAINED IN THIS MESSAGE...AVAILABLE AS PMDMRD ON AWIPS. THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1971-2000 BASE PERIOD MEANS FOR TEMPERATURE...PRECIPITATION...AND 500-HPA HEIGHTS AS REFERENCE IN THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS. THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON APRIL 19. NEW NOTE EFFECTIVE MAR 16 2004: THE GLOSSARY FORMERLY FOUND AT THIS LOCATION WILL NO LONGER BE TRANSMITTED AS PART OF THIS MESSAGE. IF YOU WISH TO SEE THE DEFINITIONS OF TERMS USED IN THESE MESSAGES... PLEASE GO TO THE CPC WEB PAGE AT (USE LOWER CASE) HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV AND FOLLOW THE APPROPRIATE LINKS. ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3) FOR THE REGION FROM 20N to 70N LATITUDE AND 175E to 60W LONGITUDE INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 19960329 - 19900409 - 19580316 - 19900317 - 19950328 ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4) FOR THE REGION FROM 20N to 70N LATITUDE AND 175E to 60W LONGITUDE INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 19950327 - 19960329 - 19580315 - 19910415 - 19900316 6 to 10 day Outlook Table OUTLOOK FOR APR 11 - 15, 2007 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON B A OREGON B A NRN CALIF B A SRN CALIF N N IDAHO B A NEVADA B A W MONTANA B A E MONTANA B A WYOMING B A UTAH B N ARIZONA N B COLORADO B B NEW MEXICO N B N DAKOTA B A S DAKOTA B A NEBRASKA B N KANSAS B N OKLAHOMA B B N TEXAS N B S TEXAS A B W TEXAS N B MINNESOTA B N IOWA B N MISSOURI B N ARKANSAS B N LOUISIANA N N WISCONSIN B B ILLINOIS B N MISSISSIPPI B N MICHIGAN B B INDIANA B B OHIO B B KENTUCKY B N TENNESSEE B N ALABAMA B N NEW YORK B A VERMONT B A NEW HAMP B A MAINE B A MASS B A CONN B A RHODE IS B A PENN B A NEW JERSEY B A W VIRGINIA B A MARYLAND B A DELAWARE B A VIRGINIA B A N CAROLINA B A S CAROLINA B A GEORGIA B A FL PNHDL N A FL PENIN N N AK N SLOPE A B AK ALEUTIAN B N AK WESTERN N B AK INT BSN A B AK S INT A B AK SO COAST A B AK PNHDL A B 8 to 14 day Outlook Table OUTLOOK FOR APR 13 - 19, 2007 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON B A OREGON B A NRN CALIF N A SRN CALIF A N IDAHO B A NEVADA N A W MONTANA B A E MONTANA B A WYOMING B A UTAH N N ARIZONA A B COLORADO N B NEW MEXICO A B N DAKOTA B A S DAKOTA B A NEBRASKA B A KANSAS B N OKLAHOMA B B N TEXAS N B S TEXAS N B W TEXAS N B MINNESOTA B A IOWA B N MISSOURI B N ARKANSAS N N LOUISIANA N N WISCONSIN B N ILLINOIS B N MISSISSIPPI N N MICHIGAN B N INDIANA B N OHIO B A KENTUCKY B A TENNESSEE N A ALABAMA N A NEW YORK B A VERMONT B A NEW HAMP B A MAINE B A MASS B A CONN B A RHODE IS B A PENN B A NEW JERSEY B A W VIRGINIA B A MARYLAND B A DELAWARE B A VIRGINIA B A N CAROLINA B A S CAROLINA N A GEORGIA N A FL PNHDL N A FL PENIN N A AK N SLOPE A B AK ALEUTIAN B B AK WESTERN N B AK INT BSN A B AK S INT A B AK SO COAST A B AK PNHDL A B LEGEND TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN B - BELOW B - BELOW THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS PMDMRD. $$