PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSIONS FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 300 PM EDT WED APR 04 2007 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK VALID FOR APR 10 - 14 2007 TODAYS NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT ON THE LARGE SCALE FORECAST 500-HPA HEIGHT PATTERN OVER NORTH AMERICA. ALL MODELS PREDICT THAT THE HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN ON DAY 6 WILL DIMINISH TO A MORE ZONAL PATTERN BY THE END OF THE 6 TO 10 DAY PERIOD. THERE IS A GENERAL CONSENSUS AMONG MOST MODELS FOR AN ELONGATED 500-HPA TROUGH OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC WHICH WILL ENHANCE ON-SHORE FLOW INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST... INCREASING THE CHANCES OF WET CONDITIONS FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. CONDITIONS OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS ARE QUITE UNCERTAIN... WITH THE DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EAST AT THE START OF THE PERIOD GIVING WAY TO ZONAL FLOW BY THE PERIODS END. A LARGE AMOUNT OF SPREAD AMONG THE VARIOUS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SUGGESTS THAT THE TIMING AND INTENSITY OF SHORT WAVES EMBEDDED IN THE ZONAL FLOW WILL BE VERY DIFFICULT TO PREDICT... LEADING TO A VERY LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE PRECIPITATION FORECAST OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. ALASKA IS WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE PREDICTED PACIFIC STORM TRACK... SUGGESTING BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR MUCH OF THE STATE EXCEPT FOR THE PANHANDLE. TODAYS OFFICIAL 500-HPA BLEND CONSISTS OF 10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 0Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 8...10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 6Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 8...10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL ECMWF CENTERED ON DAY 7...20 PERCENT OF TODAY'S GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...20 PERCENT OF TODAY'S CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...AND 30 PERCENT OF TODAY'S EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 7. MODEL(S) OF THE DAY: EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD IS BELOW AVERAGE... 2 ON A SCALE OF 1 TO 5... DUE TO THE FORECAST CHANGE IN THE UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION PATTERN TO A ZONAL FLOW WITH LITTLE CONSENSUS ON STRENGTH OR INTENSITY OF EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES. THE 6-10 DAY TEMPERATURE PROG IS BASED ON THE KLEIN AND ANALOG SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLENDED HEIGHT FIELD... THE CPC AUTO TEMPERATURE FORECAST... THE NORTH AMERICAN ENSEMBLE FORECAST SYSTEM TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE FROM THE GFS AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLES... AND THE CDC RE-FORECAST TEMPERATURE TOOL. THE 6-10 DAY PRECIPITATION PROG IS BASED ON THE ANALOG SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLENDED HEIGHT FIELD... THE CPC AUTO PRECIPITATION FORECAST... CPC CALIBRATED PRECIPITATION FROM THE 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE AND OPERATIONAL MODEL... AND THE CDC RE-FORECAST PRECIPITATION TOOL. 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR APR 12 - 18 2007: THERE IS CONSIDERABLE DISAGREEMENT AMONG THE VARIOUS MODELS ON THE MEAN 500-HPA CIRCULATION PATTERN IN THE 8 TO 14 DAY PERIOD. THERE IS A LARGE SPREAD AMONG INDIVIDUAL MEMBERS... WITH THE ENSEMBLE MEANS INDICATING A VERY BROAD TROUGH OVER THE CONUS EXTENDING FROM THE ROCKIES TO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN. THE CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN AND THE 06Z GFS HIGH RESOLUTION RUN PERSIST AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN THE EASTERN CONUS... AND THIS POSSIBILITY ELEVATES THE CHANCES OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. OTHERWISE TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES ARE EXPECTED TO BE QUITE UNCERTAIN WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES MOST LIKELY FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE CONUS. THE CHANCES OF ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IS ELEVATED FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES DUE TO AN ACTIVE STORM TRACK ASSOCIATED WITH THE ENHANCED WESTERLIES PREDICTED OVER THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC. ELSEWHERE THERE IS NOT MUCH AGREEMENT AMONG TOOLS FOR THE 8 TO 14 PRECIPITATION AMOUNT INDICATING THAT PRECIPITATION ANOMALIES WILL MOSTLY DEPEND ON SHORT WAVES NOT PREDICTABLE AT THESE TIME RANGES. WITH THE STORM TRACK WELL TO THE SOUTH... ALASKAN PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BE BELOW MEDIAN EXCEPT FOR THE PANHANDLE WHERE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AT 500-HPA MAY BRING ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR NEAR NORMAL AMOUNTS. THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY HEIGHT PROG CONSISTS OF 30 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 0Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 11...50 PERCENT OF TODAY'S GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...AND 20 PERCENT OF TODAY'S CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11. FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD IS BELOW AVERAGE... 2 ON A SCALE OF 1 TO 5... DUE TO THE PREDICTION OF MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW WITH NO CLEAR CONSENSUS ON THE TIMING OR INTENSITY OF EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES. THE 8-14 DAY TEMPERATURE PROG IS BASED ON THE ANALOG SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLENDED HEIGHT FIELD... THE CPC AUTO TEMPERATURE FORECAST... THE NORTH AMERICAN ENSEMBLE FORECAST SYSTEM TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE FROM THE GFS AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLES... AND THE CDC RE-FORECAST TEMPERATURE TOOL. THE KLEIN SPECIFICATIONS WERE NOT USED BECAUSE THEY APPEAR TOO COLD. THE 8-14 DAY PRECIPITATION PROG IS BASED ON THE ANALOG SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLENDED HEIGHT FIELD... THE CPC AUTO PRECIPITATION FORECAST... CPC CALIBRATED PRECIPITATION FROM THE 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE AND OPERATIONAL MODEL... AND THE CDC RE-FORECAST PRECIPITATION TOOL. FORECASTER: D. UNGER NOTES: OPERATIONAL CHANGE: AS OF JULY 5 2005 SHADED MAPS HAVE REPLACED THE CONTOUR-ONLY MAPS ON THE CPC WEB SITE. THE CONTOURED MAPS ARE STILL AVAILABLE AT THEIR CURRENT FILE NAMES - SO DIRECT-LINKED USERS ARE NOT AFFECTED. AWIPS GRAPHICS ARE ALSO NOT AFFECTED BY THIS CHANGE. AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OTHERWISE - FORECASTS INCORPORATE FORECASTER INPUT. THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION. THE NARRATIVE DESCRIPTION OF THE FORECAST PATTERNS FOR TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION FOR BOTH THE 6-10 OR 8-14 DAY PERIODS HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. THE STATE TABLES FOR BOTH THE 6-10 AND 8-14 DAY PERIODS ARE NOW CONTAINED IN THIS MESSAGE...AVAILABLE AS PMDMRD ON AWIPS. THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1971-2000 BASE PERIOD MEANS FOR TEMPERATURE...PRECIPITATION...AND 500-HPA HEIGHTS AS REFERENCE IN THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS. THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON APRIL 19. NEW NOTE EFFECTIVE MAR 16 2004: THE GLOSSARY FORMERLY FOUND AT THIS LOCATION WILL NO LONGER BE TRANSMITTED AS PART OF THIS MESSAGE. IF YOU WISH TO SEE THE DEFINITIONS OF TERMS USED IN THESE MESSAGES... PLEASE GO TO THE CPC WEB PAGE AT (USE LOWER CASE) HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV AND FOLLOW THE APPROPRIATE LINKS. ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3) FOR THE REGION FROM 20N to 70N LATITUDE AND 175E to 60W LONGITUDE INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 19960329 - 19950327 - 19910415 - 19630402 - 19670417 ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4) FOR THE REGION FROM 20N to 70N LATITUDE AND 175E to 60W LONGITUDE INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 19950327 - 19960329 - 19910414 - 19580316 - 19900315 6 to 10 day Outlook Table OUTLOOK FOR APR 10 - 14, 2007 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON B A OREGON N A NRN CALIF N A SRN CALIF A N IDAHO N A NEVADA A N W MONTANA N A E MONTANA N A WYOMING N N UTAH A N ARIZONA A B COLORADO A B NEW MEXICO A B N DAKOTA N A S DAKOTA N N NEBRASKA N N KANSAS N B OKLAHOMA N B N TEXAS N B S TEXAS N B W TEXAS A B MINNESOTA B N IOWA B N MISSOURI B B ARKANSAS N N LOUISIANA N A WISCONSIN B N ILLINOIS B N MISSISSIPPI B A MICHIGAN B N INDIANA B N OHIO B N KENTUCKY B N TENNESSEE B N ALABAMA B A NEW YORK B B VERMONT B B NEW HAMP B B MAINE B B MASS B B CONN B B RHODE IS B B PENN B B NEW JERSEY B B W VIRGINIA B N MARYLAND B B DELAWARE B B VIRGINIA B B N CAROLINA B N S CAROLINA B N GEORGIA B A FL PNHDL B A FL PENIN B N AK N SLOPE A B AK ALEUTIAN B N AK WESTERN N B AK INT BSN A B AK S INT A N AK SO COAST A N AK PNHDL A N 8 to 14 day Outlook Table OUTLOOK FOR APR 12 - 18, 2007 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON B A OREGON B A NRN CALIF N A SRN CALIF A N IDAHO B A NEVADA N N W MONTANA B A E MONTANA B A WYOMING N N UTAH N N ARIZONA A B COLORADO N B NEW MEXICO A B N DAKOTA B A S DAKOTA N A NEBRASKA N N KANSAS N N OKLAHOMA N B N TEXAS N B S TEXAS A B W TEXAS A B MINNESOTA B A IOWA B N MISSOURI N N ARKANSAS N N LOUISIANA N N WISCONSIN B A ILLINOIS B N MISSISSIPPI N N MICHIGAN B N INDIANA B N OHIO B N KENTUCKY B N TENNESSEE B N ALABAMA N A NEW YORK B N VERMONT B N NEW HAMP B B MAINE B B MASS B N CONN B N RHODE IS B N PENN B N NEW JERSEY B N W VIRGINIA B N MARYLAND B N DELAWARE B N VIRGINIA B N N CAROLINA B A S CAROLINA B A GEORGIA N A FL PNHDL N A FL PENIN N N AK N SLOPE A B AK ALEUTIAN B B AK WESTERN A B AK INT BSN A B AK S INT A B AK SO COAST A N AK PNHDL A N LEGEND TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN B - BELOW B - BELOW THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS PMDMRD. $$