PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSIONS FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 300 PM EDT MON APR 02 2007 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK VALID FOR APR 08 - 12 2007 TODAYS NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT ON THE LARGE SCALE FORECAST 500-HPA HEIGHT PATTERN OVER NORTH AMERICA. MODELS PREDICT AN AMPLIFIED FLOW PATTERN WITH A TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS... A RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES... AND A TROUGH OVER THE U.S. EASTERN SEABOARD. THE CIRCULATION PATTERN IS MOST AMPLIFIED ON DAY 6 AND GRADUALLY DIMINISHES IN INTENSITY WITH TIME. THERE IS GOOD CONSENSUS ON ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE WESTERN CONUS AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE EAST. NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT AND HIGH PRESSURE THROUGHOUT THE EAST-CENTRAL U.S EXPECTED EARLY IN THE 6 TO 10 DAY PERIOD WILL PREVENT MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM MOVING NORTH INTO THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.S... AND AS A RESULT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE THROUGHOUT MOST OF THOSE REGIONS. ANALOGS SUGGEST MOISTURE IN THE RETURN FLOW CONFINED TO TEXAS. THE PACIFIC JET IS ACTIVE AND SHOULD ENHANCE PRECIPITATION FROM ALASKAS SOUTHERN COAST TO WASHINGTON STATE. THERE IS SOME DISAGREEMENT AMONG THE TOOLS FOR ALASKAN TEMPERATURES WITH A CONSENSUS FOR ABOVE NORMAL IN EASTERN ALASKA AND THE ALASKAN PANHANDLE AND FOR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN SOUTHWESTERN PARTS OF THE STATE UNDER THE PACIFIC TROUGH. TODAYS OFFICIAL 500-HPA BLEND CONSISTS OF 15 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 0Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 8...15 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL ECMWF CENTERED ON DAY 7...20 PERCENT OF TODAY'S GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...20 PERCENT OF TODAY'S CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...AND 30 PERCENT OF TODAY'S EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 7. MODEL(S) OF THE DAY: ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD IS MUCH ABOVE AVERAGE... 5 ON A SCALE OF 1 TO 5... DUE TO EXCELLENT MODEL AGREEMENT... AND AN AMPLIFIED 500-HPA PATTERN THAT IS WELL ASSOCIATED WITH SURFACE ANOMALIES IN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION. THE 6-10 DAY TEMPERATURE PROG IS BASED ON THE KLEIN AND ANALOG SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLENDED HEIGHT FIELD... THE CPC AUTO TEMPERATURE FORECAST... THE NORTH AMERICAN ENSEMBLE FORECAST SYSTEM TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE FROM THE GFS AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLES... AND THE CDC RE-FORECAST TEMPERATURE TOOL. THE 6-10 DAY PRECIPITATION PROG IS BASED ON THE ANALOG SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLENDED HEIGHT FIELD... THE CPC AUTO PRECIPITATION FORECAST... CPC CALIBRATED PRECIPITATION FROM THE 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE AND OPERATIONAL MODEL... AND THE CDC RE-FORECAST PRECIPITATION TOOL. 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR APR 10 - 16 2007: THE MODELS PREDICT THAT THE RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES EXPECTED IN THE 6 TO 10 DAY PERIOD WILL FLATTEN... LEAVING ZONAL FLOW OVER MOST OF THE CONUS AND A TROUGH HOLDING ON OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. THERE ARE SOME SUGGESTIONS FROM THE CANADIAN MODEL ENSEMBLES AND TELECONNECTIONS WITH THE DEEP TROUGH STILL FORECAST TO BE SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS THAT THE TROUGH OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA WILL HOLD ON ENOUGH TO KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL OVER THE EASTERN U.S. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE WESTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE NATION. THE OVERALL 500-HPA CIRCULATION PATTERN FAVORS BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS OVER MUCH OF THE CONUS EXCEPT FOR THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THAT IS EXPECTED TO BE INFLUENCED BY AN ENHANCED STORM TRACK OVER THE NORTHERN PACIFIC. CONDITIONS IN ALASKA ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST BETWEEN THE 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY PERIODS... ALTHOUGH THE PACIFIC JET... AND ITS ASSOCIATED ENHANCED PRECIPITATION IS SOMEWHAT FURTHER SOUTH IN THE LATER PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY HEIGHT PROG CONSISTS OF 30 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 0Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 11...20 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 6Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 11...15 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...15 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...AND 20 PERCENT OF TODAY'S CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11. FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD IS ABOUT AVERAGE... 3 ON A SCALE OF 1 TO 5. THE 8-14 DAY TEMPERATURE PROG IS BASED ON THE KLEIN AND ANALOG SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLENDED HEIGHT FIELD... THE CPC AUTO TEMPERATURE FORECAST... THE NORTH AMERICAN ENSEMBLE FORECAST SYSTEM TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE FROM THE GFS AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLES... AND THE CDC RE-FORECAST TEMPERATURE TOOL. THE 8-14 DAY PRECIPITATION PROG IS BASED ON THE ANALOG SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLENDED HEIGHT FIELD... THE CPC AUTO PRECIPITATION FORECAST... CPC CALIBRATED PRECIPITATION FROM THE 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE AND OPERATIONAL MODEL... AND THE CDC RE-FORECAST PRECIPITATION TOOL. FORECASTER: D. UNGER NOTES: OPERATIONAL CHANGE: AS OF JULY 5 2005 SHADED MAPS HAVE REPLACED THE CONTOUR-ONLY MAPS ON THE CPC WEB SITE. THE CONTOURED MAPS ARE STILL AVAILABLE AT THEIR CURRENT FILE NAMES - SO DIRECT-LINKED USERS ARE NOT AFFECTED. AWIPS GRAPHICS ARE ALSO NOT AFFECTED BY THIS CHANGE. AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OTHERWISE - FORECASTS INCORPORATE FORECASTER INPUT. THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION. THE NARRATIVE DESCRIPTION OF THE FORECAST PATTERNS FOR TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION FOR BOTH THE 6-10 OR 8-14 DAY PERIODS HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. THE STATE TABLES FOR BOTH THE 6-10 AND 8-14 DAY PERIODS ARE NOW CONTAINED IN THIS MESSAGE...AVAILABLE AS PMDMRD ON AWIPS. THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1971-2000 BASE PERIOD MEANS FOR TEMPERATURE...PRECIPITATION...AND 500-HPA HEIGHTS AS REFERENCE IN THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS. THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON APRIL 19. NEW NOTE EFFECTIVE MAR 16 2004: THE GLOSSARY FORMERLY FOUND AT THIS LOCATION WILL NO LONGER BE TRANSMITTED AS PART OF THIS MESSAGE. IF YOU WISH TO SEE THE DEFINITIONS OF TERMS USED IN THESE MESSAGES... PLEASE GO TO THE CPC WEB PAGE AT (USE LOWER CASE) HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV AND FOLLOW THE APPROPRIATE LINKS. ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3) FOR THE REGION FROM 20N to 70N LATITUDE AND 175E to 60W LONGITUDE INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 19950327 - 19910414 - 19630402 - 19670416 - 19970403 ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4) FOR THE REGION FROM 20N to 70N LATITUDE AND 175E to 60W LONGITUDE INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 19630401 - 19950326 - 19900314 - 19670415 - 19910414 6 to 10 day Outlook Table OUTLOOK FOR APR 08 - 12, 2007 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON A A OREGON A N NRN CALIF A N SRN CALIF A B IDAHO A N NEVADA A B W MONTANA A N E MONTANA A B WYOMING A B UTAH A B ARIZONA A B COLORADO A B NEW MEXICO A B N DAKOTA N B S DAKOTA N B NEBRASKA N B KANSAS B B OKLAHOMA B N N TEXAS B N S TEXAS B A W TEXAS N A MINNESOTA B B IOWA B B MISSOURI B B ARKANSAS B B LOUISIANA B N WISCONSIN B B ILLINOIS B B MISSISSIPPI B B MICHIGAN B B INDIANA B B OHIO B B KENTUCKY B B TENNESSEE B B ALABAMA B B NEW YORK B B VERMONT B B NEW HAMP B B MAINE B N MASS B B CONN B B RHODE IS B B PENN B B NEW JERSEY B B W VIRGINIA B B MARYLAND B B DELAWARE B B VIRGINIA B B N CAROLINA B B S CAROLINA B B GEORGIA B B FL PNHDL B B FL PENIN B N AK N SLOPE N B AK ALEUTIAN B N AK WESTERN N N AK INT BSN A N AK S INT A A AK SO COAST A A AK PNHDL A A 8 to 14 day Outlook Table OUTLOOK FOR APR 10 - 16, 2007 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON A A OREGON A A NRN CALIF A N SRN CALIF A B IDAHO A A NEVADA A N W MONTANA A A E MONTANA A N WYOMING A N UTAH A B ARIZONA A B COLORADO A B NEW MEXICO A B N DAKOTA A N S DAKOTA A B NEBRASKA A B KANSAS A B OKLAHOMA A B N TEXAS A B S TEXAS N N W TEXAS A B MINNESOTA N B IOWA N B MISSOURI N B ARKANSAS N B LOUISIANA N N WISCONSIN N B ILLINOIS N B MISSISSIPPI N N MICHIGAN B B INDIANA B B OHIO B B KENTUCKY B B TENNESSEE B B ALABAMA N B NEW YORK B B VERMONT B B NEW HAMP B B MAINE B B MASS B B CONN B B RHODE IS B B PENN B B NEW JERSEY B B W VIRGINIA B B MARYLAND B B DELAWARE B B VIRGINIA B B N CAROLINA B B S CAROLINA B B GEORGIA B B FL PNHDL B N FL PENIN B N AK N SLOPE N B AK ALEUTIAN B N AK WESTERN N B AK INT BSN A B AK S INT A N AK SO COAST A N AK PNHDL A A LEGEND TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN B - BELOW B - BELOW THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS PMDMRD. $$