PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSIONS FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 300 PM EDT THU MAR 29 2007 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK VALID FOR APR 04 - 08 2007 TODAYS NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT ON THE EXPECTED OVERALL 500-HPA HEIGHT PATTERN OVER THE FORECAST DOMAIN. A STRONG RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BE CENTERED NORTH OF ALASKA... WHILE A TROUGH IS FORECAST DOWNSTREAM OVER EASTERN CANADA WHICH EXTENDS SOUTHWARD INTO THE NORTHEAST CONUS. THE 12Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN KEEPS THIS TROUGH CONFINED TO HIGHER LATITUDES... WHILE THE GFS MODELS DIG THE TROUGH INTO THE NORTHEAST CONUS. THE LATTER SOLUTION IS FAVORED AS ANALOGS AND TELECONNECTIONS ON THE UPSTREAM RIDGE INDICATE THIS PATTERN. A BROAD WEAK RIDGE IS THE DOMINANT FEATURE OF THE 500-HPA FLOW PATTERN OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY FOR THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CONUS UNDER THE WEAK RIDGE. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE PROBABLE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS FROM THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE NORTHEAST... UNDER THE EASTERN TROUGH. BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY FOR THE SOUTHWEST INTO THE GREAT BASIN... BEHIND THE WEAK RIDGE. ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FOR SOUTHERN TEXAS AND WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS WHERE THE RIDGE WEAKENS... AND OVER THE NORTHEAST AHEAD OF THE EASTERN TROUGH. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY FOR MOST OF ALASKA AND THE ALEUTIANS UNDER ANOMALOUSLY SOUTHERLY FLOW BEHIND THE RIDGE. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE MORE PROBABLE FOR THE ALASKAN PANHANDLE DUE TO THE ANOMALOUSLY NORTHERLY FLOW AROUND THE RIDGE. DRIER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY FOR MOST OF EASTERN ALASKA AND THE ALASKAN PANHANDLE... WHILE ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS MORE PROBABLE FOR SOUTHWESTERN ALASKA AND THE ALEUTIANS. TODAYS OFFICIAL 500-HPA BLEND CONSISTS OF 10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 0Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 8...10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 6Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 8...5 PERCENT OF YESTERDAY'S OPERATIONAL 18Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 7...10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL ECMWF CENTERED ON DAY 7...10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...30 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...5 PERCENT OF TODAY'S CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...AND 20 PERCENT OF TODAY'S EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 7. MODEL(S) OF THE DAY: 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD IS BELOW AVERAGE... 2 ON A SCALE OF 1 TO 5... DUE TO SOME MODEL DISAGREEMENT... AND SOME DISAGREEMENT AMONG THE TOOLS. THE 6-10 DAY TEMPERATURE PROG IS BASED ON THE KLEIN AND ANALOG SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLENDED HEIGHT FIELD... KLEIN AND NEURAL NET TEMPERATURE PROBABILITIES FROM THE GFS... 12Z ECMWF AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLES... THE CPC AUTO TEMPERATURE FORECAST... THE NORTH AMERICAN ENSEMBLE FORECAST SYSTEM TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE FROM THE GFS AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLES... AND THE CDC RE-FORECAST TEMPERATURE TOOL. THE 6-10 DAY PRECIPITATION PROG IS BASED ON THE ANALOG SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLENDED HEIGHT FIELD... THE CPC AUTO PRECIPITATION FORECAST... CPC CALIBRATED PRECIPITATION FROM THE 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE... AND THE CDC RE-FORECAST PRECIPITATION TOOL. 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR APR 06 - 12 2007: DURING THE WEEK-2 PERIOD... THE FORECAST 500-HPA HEIGHT PATTERN IS SIMILAR TO THE PATTERN FORECAST FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD... ALTHOUGH THE BROAD RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS IS MUCH WEAKER... WHILE THE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS DIGS FURTHER SOUTH TOWARDS THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE 0Z AND 6Z OPERATIONAL GFS MODELS AS USUAL INDICATE A MORE AMPLIFIED PATTERN THAN THEIR RESPECTIVE ENSEMBLE MEANS. THE PRECIPITATION AND TEMPERATURE PATTERNS ARE SIMILAR TO THE PATTERNS EXPECTED DURING THE 6-10 DAY FORECAST PERIOD. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY FOR THE WESTERN CONUS. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY FOR THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS AND FOR THE NORTHEAST CONUS. ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FOR TEXAS AND EAST OF THE GREAT LAKES. BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY FOR THE SOUTHWEST AND BEHIND THE EASTERN TROUGH IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST OF ALASKA... WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES MORE PROBABLE FOR THE ALASKAN PANHANDLE. DRIER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY FOR MOST OF ALASKA... EXCEPT SOUTHWESTERN ALASKA AND PARTS OF THE ALASKAN PANHANDLE WHERE ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS MORE PROBABLE. THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY HEIGHT PROG CONSISTS OF 10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 0Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 11...15 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 6Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 11...10 PERCENT OF YESTERDAY'S OPERATIONAL 18Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 10...20 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...30 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...10 PERCENT OF YESTERDAY'S 18Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 10...AND 5 PERCENT OF TODAY'S CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11. FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD IS BELOW AVERAGE... 2 ON A SCALE OF 1 TO 5... DUE TO THE EXPECTED LOW AMPLITUDE FLOW PATTERN AND POOR AGREEMENT AMONG THE FORECAST TOOLS. THE 8-14 DAY TEMPERATURE PROG IS BASED ON THE KLEIN AND ANALOG SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLENDED HEIGHT FIELD... KLEIN AND NEURAL NET TEMPERATURE PROBABILITIES FROM THE GFS AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLES... THE CPC AUTO TEMPERATURE FORECAST... THE NORTH AMERICAN ENSEMBLE FORECAST SYSTEM TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE FROM THE GFS AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLES... AND THE CDC RE-FORECAST TEMPERATURE TOOL. THE 8-14 DAY PRECIPITATION PROG IS BASED ON THE ANALOG SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLENDED HEIGHT FIELD... THE CPC AUTO PRECIPITATION FORECAST... CPC CALIBRATED PRECIPITATION FROM THE 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE... AND THE CDC RE-FORECAST PRECIPITATION TOOL. FORECASTER: D. COLLINS NOTES: OPERATIONAL CHANGE: AS OF JULY 5 2005 SHADED MAPS HAVE REPLACED THE CONTOUR-ONLY MAPS ON THE CPC WEB SITE. THE CONTOURED MAPS ARE STILL AVAILABLE AT THEIR CURRENT FILE NAMES - SO DIRECT-LINKED USERS ARE NOT AFFECTED. AWIPS GRAPHICS ARE ALSO NOT AFFECTED BY THIS CHANGE. AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OTHERWISE - FORECASTS INCORPORATE FORECASTER INPUT. THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION. THE NARRATIVE DESCRIPTION OF THE FORECAST PATTERNS FOR TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION FOR BOTH THE 6-10 OR 8-14 DAY PERIODS HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. THE STATE TABLES FOR BOTH THE 6-10 AND 8-14 DAY PERIODS ARE NOW CONTAINED IN THIS MESSAGE...AVAILABLE AS PMDMRD ON AWIPS. THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1971-2000 BASE PERIOD MEANS FOR TEMPERATURE...PRECIPITATION...AND 500-HPA HEIGHTS AS REFERENCE IN THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS. THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON APRIL 19. NEW NOTE EFFECTIVE MAR 16 2004: THE GLOSSARY FORMERLY FOUND AT THIS LOCATION WILL NO LONGER BE TRANSMITTED AS PART OF THIS MESSAGE. IF YOU WISH TO SEE THE DEFINITIONS OF TERMS USED IN THESE MESSAGES... PLEASE GO TO THE CPC WEB PAGE AT (USE LOWER CASE) HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV AND FOLLOW THE APPROPRIATE LINKS. ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3) FOR THE REGION FROM 20N to 70N LATITUDE AND 175E to 60W LONGITUDE INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 19900312 - 19950313 - 19660311 - 19770412 - 19930323 ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4) FOR THE REGION FROM 20N to 70N LATITUDE AND 175E to 60W LONGITUDE INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 19930323 - 19770411 - 19900312 - 19910407 - 19660311 6 to 10 day Outlook Table OUTLOOK FOR APR 04 - 08, 2007 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON A N OREGON A N NRN CALIF A B SRN CALIF A B IDAHO A N NEVADA A B W MONTANA A N E MONTANA N N WYOMING A N UTAH A B ARIZONA A B COLORADO A N NEW MEXICO A N N DAKOTA B N S DAKOTA B N NEBRASKA B N KANSAS B N OKLAHOMA B N N TEXAS N A S TEXAS N A W TEXAS N N MINNESOTA B N IOWA B N MISSOURI B N ARKANSAS N A LOUISIANA N N WISCONSIN B N ILLINOIS B N MISSISSIPPI N N MICHIGAN B N INDIANA B A OHIO B A KENTUCKY B A TENNESSEE N A ALABAMA N N NEW YORK B A VERMONT B A NEW HAMP B A MAINE B N MASS B A CONN B A RHODE IS B A PENN B A NEW JERSEY B A W VIRGINIA B A MARYLAND B N DELAWARE B N VIRGINIA B N N CAROLINA N N S CAROLINA N N GEORGIA N N FL PNHDL N N FL PENIN N N AK N SLOPE A B AK ALEUTIAN A A AK WESTERN A N AK INT BSN A B AK S INT A B AK SO COAST A B AK PNHDL B B 8 to 14 day Outlook Table OUTLOOK FOR APR 06 - 12, 2007 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON A N OREGON A N NRN CALIF A N SRN CALIF A B IDAHO A N NEVADA A N W MONTANA A N E MONTANA N N WYOMING A N UTAH A B ARIZONA A B COLORADO A N NEW MEXICO A N N DAKOTA B N S DAKOTA B B NEBRASKA B B KANSAS B N OKLAHOMA B N N TEXAS N A S TEXAS N A W TEXAS N A MINNESOTA B N IOWA B B MISSOURI B N ARKANSAS N N LOUISIANA N N WISCONSIN B N ILLINOIS B N MISSISSIPPI N N MICHIGAN B A INDIANA B N OHIO B N KENTUCKY B N TENNESSEE B N ALABAMA N N NEW YORK B A VERMONT B A NEW HAMP B N MAINE B N MASS B N CONN B N RHODE IS B N PENN B N NEW JERSEY B N W VIRGINIA B N MARYLAND B N DELAWARE B N VIRGINIA B N N CAROLINA B N S CAROLINA B N GEORGIA N N FL PNHDL N N FL PENIN N N AK N SLOPE A B AK ALEUTIAN A A AK WESTERN A B AK INT BSN A B AK S INT A B AK SO COAST A B AK PNHDL N B LEGEND TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN B - BELOW B - BELOW THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS PMDMRD. $$