PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSIONS FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 300 PM EDT MON MAR 26 2007 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK VALID FOR APR 01 - 05 2007 TODAYS NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT ON THE OVERALL 500-HPA HEIGHT PATTERN OVER THE FORECAST DOMAIN. A STRONG RIDGE IS FORECAST OVER WESTERN ALASKA... A TROUGH IS FORECAST FROM BAFFIN ISLAND SOUTHWARD INTO EASTERN CANADA. A BROAD RIDGE IS FORECAST OVER THE CONUS... CENTERED OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. THE ECMWF MODEL SOLUTIONS TEND TO SLOW THE PROGRESSION OF THE EASTERN TROUGH RELATIVE TO THE GFS MODELS... WHILE THE OVERALL PATTERNS ARE SIMILAR. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST PATTERN FAVORS ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE MORE PROBABLE OVER THE NORTHERN CONUS FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS EASTWARD TO MAINE... AS COLD AIR MOVES SOUTHWARD AHEAD OF THE RIDGE OVER ALASKA. BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED OVER THE WESTERN CONUS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS... WHERE THE CONUS RIDGE IS STRONGEST. ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FOR EASTERN TEXAS... ALONG A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... AND MOST PROBABLE OVER THE NORTHEAST. NEAR NORMAL TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE PROBABLE FOR NORTHERN AND WESTERN PARTS OF ALASKA DUE TO THE STRONG RIDGE. COLDER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY FOR THE SOUTHEAST INCLUDING THE ALASKAN PANHANDLE DUE TO THE ANOMALOUSLY NORTHERLY FLOW EAST OF THE RIDGE. DRIER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY FOR EASTERN ALASKA... WHILE WETTER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS ARE MORE PROBABLE FOR THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS AND WESTERN ALASKA. TODAYS OFFICIAL 500-HPA BLEND CONSISTS OF 10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 6Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 8...10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL ECMWF CENTERED ON DAY 7...10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...30 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...AND 30 PERCENT OF TODAY'S EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 7. MODEL(S) OF THE DAY: ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD IS AVERAGE... 3 ON A SCALE OF 1 TO 5... WITH FAIR MODEL AGREEMENT AND AGREEMENT AMONG TOOLS. THE 6-10 DAY TEMPERATURE PROG IS BASED ON THE KLEIN AND ANALOG SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLENDED HEIGHT FIELD... THE CPC AUTO TEMPERATURE FORECAST... THE NORTH AMERICAN ENSEMBLE FORECAST SYSTEM TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE FROM THE GFS AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLES... AND THE CDC REFORECAST TEMPERATURE TOOL. THE 6-10 DAY PRECIPITATION PROG IS BASED ON THE ANALOG SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLENDED HEIGHT FIELD... THE CPC AUTO PRECIPITATION FORECAST... CPC CALIBRATED PRECIPITATION FROM THE 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE... AND THE CDC REFORECAST PRECIPITATION TOOL. 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR APR 03 - 09 2007: DURING THE WEEK-2 PERIOD... THE FORECAST 500-HPA HEIGHT PATTERN IS SIMILAR TO THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD... ALTHOUGH THERE IS SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING OF THE CONUS RIDGE AND SOME DEEPENING OF THE TROUGH OVER EASTERN CANADA... SUCH THAT IT EXTENDS OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THE 0Z AND 6Z OPERATIONAL GFS MODELS INDICATE THE GREATEST DEEPENING OF THIS TROUGH. GENERALLY THE PRECIPITATION AND TEMPERATURE PATTERNS HAVE NOT CHANGED MUCH FROM THE 6-10 DAY FORECAST. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE AGAIN MOST PROBABLE FOR THE WESTERN CONUS AND THE SOUTHEAST. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE MOST PROBABLE IN THE NORTHEAST CONUS... EXTENDING FURTHER SOUTH ALONG THE EAST COAST THAN DURING THE 6-10 DAY FORECAST PERIOD. MOST OF ALASKA REMAINS WARMER THAN NORMAL IN THE NORTHWEST AND COOLER THAN NORMAL IN THE SOUTHEAST.. AS THE RIDGE REMAINS STRONG. DRIER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS ARE MOST LIKELY FOR MOST OF THE STATE. THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY HEIGHT PROG CONSISTS OF 15 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 0Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 11...15 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 6Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 11...15 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...40 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...AND 15 PERCENT OF TODAY'S CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11. FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD IS BELOW AVERAGE... 2 ON A SCALE OF 1 TO 5... DUE TO THE EXPECTED LOW AMPLITUDE FLOW PATTERN AND POOR AGREEMENT AMONG THE FORECAST TOOLS. THE 8-14 DAY TEMPERATURE PROG IS BASED ON THE KLEIN AND ANALOG SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLENDED HEIGHT FIELD... THE CPC AUTO TEMPERATURE FORECAST... NORTH AMERICAN ENSEMBLE FORECAST SYSTEM TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE FROM THE GFS AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLES... AND THE CDC REFORECAST TEMPERATURE TOOL. THE 8-14 DAY PRECIPITATION PROG IS BASED ON THE ANALOG SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLENDED HEIGHT FIELD... THE CPC AUTO PRECIPITATION FORECAST... CPC CALIBRATED PRECIPITATION FROM THE 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE... AND THE CDC REFORECAST PRECIPITATION TOOL. FORECASTER: D. COLLINS NOTES: OPERATIONAL CHANGE: AS OF JULY 5 2005 SHADED MAPS HAVE REPLACED THE CONTOUR-ONLY MAPS ON THE CPC WEB SITE. THE CONTOURED MAPS ARE STILL AVAILABLE AT THEIR CURRENT FILE NAMES - SO DIRECT-LINKED USERS ARE NOT AFFECTED. AWIPS GRAPHICS ARE ALSO NOT AFFECTED BY THIS CHANGE. AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OTHERWISE - FORECASTS INCORPORATE FORECASTER INPUT. THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION. THE NARRATIVE DESCRIPTION OF THE FORECAST PATTERNS FOR TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION FOR BOTH THE 6-10 OR 8-14 DAY PERIODS HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. THE STATE TABLES FOR BOTH THE 6-10 AND 8-14 DAY PERIODS ARE NOW CONTAINED IN THIS MESSAGE...AVAILABLE AS PMDMRD ON AWIPS. THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1971-2000 BASE PERIOD MEANS FOR TEMPERATURE...PRECIPITATION...AND 500-HPA HEIGHTS AS REFERENCE IN THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS. THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON APRIL 19. NEW NOTE EFFECTIVE MAR 16 2004: THE GLOSSARY FORMERLY FOUND AT THIS LOCATION WILL NO LONGER BE TRANSMITTED AS PART OF THIS MESSAGE. IF YOU WISH TO SEE THE DEFINITIONS OF TERMS USED IN THESE MESSAGES... PLEASE GO TO THE CPC WEB PAGE AT (USE LOWER CASE) HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV AND FOLLOW THE APPROPRIATE LINKS. ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3) FOR THE REGION FROM 20N to 70N LATITUDE AND 175E to 60W LONGITUDE INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 19930321 - 19910407 - 19860330 - 19860404 - 19770309 ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4) FOR THE REGION FROM 20N to 70N LATITUDE AND 175E to 60W LONGITUDE INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 19930321 - 19860330 - 19910407 - 19860404 - 19770309 6 to 10 day Outlook Table OUTLOOK FOR APR 01 - 05, 2007 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON N B OREGON N B NRN CALIF A B SRN CALIF A B IDAHO A B NEVADA A B W MONTANA A N E MONTANA N N WYOMING A B UTAH A B ARIZONA A B COLORADO A B NEW MEXICO A B N DAKOTA B A S DAKOTA N N NEBRASKA N N KANSAS A N OKLAHOMA A N N TEXAS A A S TEXAS N A W TEXAS A N MINNESOTA B A IOWA N N MISSOURI A N ARKANSAS A N LOUISIANA A A WISCONSIN B A ILLINOIS N A MISSISSIPPI A A MICHIGAN B A INDIANA N A OHIO B A KENTUCKY A A TENNESSEE A A ALABAMA A A NEW YORK B A VERMONT B A NEW HAMP B A MAINE B A MASS N A CONN N A RHODE IS N A PENN B A NEW JERSEY N A W VIRGINIA N A MARYLAND N N DELAWARE N N VIRGINIA A N N CAROLINA A N S CAROLINA A N GEORGIA A N FL PNHDL A N FL PENIN N N AK N SLOPE A N AK ALEUTIAN B B AK WESTERN N B AK INT BSN N B AK S INT B B AK SO COAST B B AK PNHDL B B 8 to 14 day Outlook Table OUTLOOK FOR APR 03 - 09, 2007 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON N N OREGON N B NRN CALIF A B SRN CALIF A B IDAHO A B NEVADA A B W MONTANA A A E MONTANA N A WYOMING A B UTAH A B ARIZONA A B COLORADO A B NEW MEXICO A B N DAKOTA B A S DAKOTA B A NEBRASKA N N KANSAS N N OKLAHOMA A N N TEXAS A A S TEXAS N A W TEXAS A N MINNESOTA B N IOWA B N MISSOURI N N ARKANSAS A N LOUISIANA A A WISCONSIN B N ILLINOIS N N MISSISSIPPI A N MICHIGAN B A INDIANA N A OHIO B A KENTUCKY A N TENNESSEE A N ALABAMA A N NEW YORK B A VERMONT B A NEW HAMP B A MAINE B A MASS B A CONN B A RHODE IS B A PENN B A NEW JERSEY B N W VIRGINIA B N MARYLAND B N DELAWARE B N VIRGINIA B N N CAROLINA A N S CAROLINA A N GEORGIA A N FL PNHDL N B FL PENIN B B AK N SLOPE A N AK ALEUTIAN N B AK WESTERN A B AK INT BSN N B AK S INT B B AK SO COAST B B AK PNHDL N B LEGEND TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN B - BELOW B - BELOW THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS PMDMRD. $$