PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSIONS FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 300 PM EDT FRI MAR 23 2007 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK VALID FOR MAR 29 - APR 02, 2007 TODAYS NUMERICAL FORECAST MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT ON THE OVERALL 500-HPA HEIGHT PATTERN OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST DOMAIN. A TROUGH IS FORECAST NEAR THE WESTERN CONUS... WHILE A MODERATELY STRONG RIDGE IS EXPECTED NEAR OR OVER ALASKA... AND A WEAK TO MODERATE RIDGE IS PROGGED FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. DURING THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS... MOST OF THE MODELS HAVE BEEN STRONGLY TRENDING TOWARD SUPPRESSING THE EASTERN RIDGE INDICATING A LIKELY PATTERN SHIFT DURING THE OUTLOOK PERIOD. NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA AND THE NORTHWESTERN HALF OF THE CONUS... WHILE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY FOR MOST OF THE SOUTHEAST/SOUTH-CENTRAL U.S. AND NORTHWEST ALASKA. DUE TO THE STRONG MODEL TREND TOWARD WEAKENING THE EASTERN RIDGE... A COOLING TREND IS LIKELY FOR THE NORTH-CENTRAL/NORTHEAST CONUS DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD. ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS MOST LIKELY FOR THE NORTHWEST CONUS NEAR THE WESTERN TROUGH AND EXTENDING TO THE NORTHERN PLAINS NEAR THE MEAN POSITION OF THE 500-HPA JET. ELSEWHERE... THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND GULF OF MEXICO COASTS OF THE U.S. ARE LIKELY TO BE DRY IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE SOUTHEASTERN RIDGE. NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS ALSO EXPECTED FOR MOST OF ALASKA AS THE MEAN STORM TRACK SHOULD STAY MOSTLY TO THE SOUTH OF THE STATE. TODAYS OFFICIAL 500-HPA BLEND CONSISTS OF 10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...30 PERCENT OF TODAY'S GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...AND 50 PERCENT OF TODAY'S EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 7. MODEL(S) OF THE DAY: ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD IS AVERAGE... 3 ON A SCALE OF 1 TO 5. THE 6-10 DAY TEMPERATURE PROG IS BASED ON THE KLEIN AND ANALOG SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLENDED HEIGHT FIELD... THE CPC AUTO TEMPERATURE FORECAST ...NORTH AMERICA ENSEMBLE FORECAST SYSTEM TEMPERATURES FROM THE GFS AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLES... AND THE CDC REFORECAST TEMPERATURE TOOL. THE 6-10 DAY PRECIPITATION PROG IS BASED ON THE ANALOG AND NEURAL NET SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLENDED HEIGHT FIELD... THE CPC AUTO PRECIPITATION FORECAST... CPC CALIBRATED PRECIPITATION PERCENTAGES FROM THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS... AND THE CDC REFORECAST PRECIPITATION TOOL. 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR MAR 31 - APR 06, 2007: FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD... TODAYS ENSEMBLE MEANS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN DEPICTING A RELATIVELY LOW AMPLITUDE 500-HPA FLOW PATTERN OVER THE CONUS WITH A WEAK RIDGE OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND A WEAK TO MODERATE TROUGH NEAR THE WEST COAST. DURING THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS... THE MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING TOWARD SUPPRESSING A RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST/SOUTH-CENTRAL CONUS... STRENGTHENING A POLAR VORTEX NORTH OF HUDSON BAY... AND BUILDING A RIDGE NEAR EASTERN GREENLAND. THE END RESULT OF THESE TRENDS WOULD BE A TRANSITION TO A HEIGHT ANOMALY PATTERN FEATURING POSTIVE ANOMALIES OVER GREENLAND AND NEGATIVE ANOMALIES NEAR THE U.S./CANADIAN BORDER EXTENDING TO THE NORTH ATLANTIC. THIS PATTERN WOULD RESULT IN A SUPPRESSION OF THE MEAN 500-HPA JET FURTHER TO THE SOUTH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS... MAKING THE NORTHEAST U.S. INCREASINGLY SUSCEPTIBLE TO BACK DOOR COLD FRONTS. THIS... IN COMBINATION WITH THE EXPECTED WEST COAST TROUGH FAVORS BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MOST OF THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE CONUS FROM COAST TO COAST. FURTHER TO THE SOUTH... THE WEAKENING LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY RIDGE SHOULD STILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE SOUTHEAST. WETTER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY OVER THE NORTHWEST CONUS NEAR THE WEST COAST TROUGH AND EXTENDING TO THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS NEAR THE MEAN POSITION OF THE 500-HPA JET. MOST OF ALASKA SHOULD ALSO BE MILDER THAN NORMAL IN RESPONSE TO A RELATIVELY STRONG RIDGE EXPECTED TO BE LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN PART OF THE STATE. THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY HEIGHT PROG CONSISTS OF 15 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...15 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...45 PERCENT OF TODAY'S GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...AND 25 PERCENT OF TODAY'S CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11. FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD IS BELOW AVERAGE... 2 ON A SCALE OF 1 TO 5... DUE TO THE EXPECTED LOW AMPLITUDE FLOW PATTERN IN COMBINATION WITH RELATIVELY POOR AGREEMENT AMONG THE FORECAST TOOLS. THE 8-14 DAY TEMPERATURE PROG IS BASED ON THE KLEIN AND ANALOG SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE BLENDED HEIGHT FIELD... THE CPC AUTO TEMPERATURE FORECAST... NORTH AMERICA ENSEMBLE FORECAST SYSTEM TEMPERATURES FROM THE GFS AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLES... AND THE CDC REFORECAST TEMPERATURE TOOL. THE 8-14 DAY PRECIPITATION PROG IS BASED ON THE ANALOG SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLENDED HEIGHT FIELD... THE CPC AUTO PRECIPITATION FORECAST... CPC CALIBRATED PRECIPITATION PERCENTAGES FROM THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS... AND THE CDC REFORECAST PRECIPITATION TOOL. FORECASTER: S. HANDEL NOTES: OPERATIONAL CHANGE: AS OF JULY 5 2005 SHADED MAPS HAVE REPLACED THE CONTOUR-ONLY MAPS ON THE CPC WEB SITE. THE CONTOURED MAPS ARE STILL AVAILABLE AT THEIR CURRENT FILE NAMES - SO DIRECT-LINKED USERS ARE NOT AFFECTED. AWIPS GRAPHICS ARE ALSO NOT AFFECTED BY THIS CHANGE. AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OTHERWISE - FORECASTS INCORPORATE FORECASTER INPUT. THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION. THE NARRATIVE DESCRIPTION OF THE FORECAST PATTERNS FOR TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION FOR BOTH THE 6-10 OR 8-14 DAY PERIODS HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. THE STATE TABLES FOR BOTH THE 6-10 AND 8-14 DAY PERIODS ARE NOW CONTAINED IN THIS MESSAGE...AVAILABLE AS PMDMRD ON AWIPS. THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1971-2000 BASE PERIOD MEANS FOR TEMPERATURE...PRECIPITATION...AND 500-HPA HEIGHTS AS REFERENCE IN THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS. THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON APRIL 19. NEW NOTE EFFECTIVE MAR 16 2004: THE GLOSSARY FORMERLY FOUND AT THIS LOCATION WILL NO LONGER BE TRANSMITTED AS PART OF THIS MESSAGE. IF YOU WISH TO SEE THE DEFINITIONS OF TERMS USED IN THESE MESSAGES... PLEASE GO TO THE CPC WEB PAGE AT (USE LOWER CASE) HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV AND FOLLOW THE APPROPRIATE LINKS. ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3) FOR THE REGION FROM 20N to 70N LATITUDE AND 175E to 60W LONGITUDE INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 19860329 - 19980327 - 19590320 - 19860403 - 19890323 ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4) FOR THE REGION FROM 20N to 70N LATITUDE AND 175E to 60W LONGITUDE INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 19860329 - 19590404 - 19930319 - 19890323 - 19850311 6 to 10 day Outlook Table OUTLOOK FOR MAR 29 - APR 02, 2007 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON B A OREGON B A NRN CALIF B N SRN CALIF B N IDAHO B A NEVADA B N W MONTANA B A E MONTANA B A WYOMING N A UTAH N N ARIZONA N N COLORADO N N NEW MEXICO N N N DAKOTA B A S DAKOTA N A NEBRASKA N N KANSAS A N OKLAHOMA A N N TEXAS A B S TEXAS A N W TEXAS A N MINNESOTA N A IOWA N N MISSOURI A N ARKANSAS A B LOUISIANA A B WISCONSIN N A ILLINOIS A N MISSISSIPPI A B MICHIGAN A N INDIANA A N OHIO A N KENTUCKY A B TENNESSEE A B ALABAMA A B NEW YORK A B VERMONT A B NEW HAMP A B MAINE N B MASS A B CONN A B RHODE IS A B PENN A B NEW JERSEY A B W VIRGINIA A B MARYLAND A B DELAWARE A B VIRGINIA A B N CAROLINA A B S CAROLINA A B GEORGIA A B FL PNHDL A B FL PENIN A B AK N SLOPE A N AK ALEUTIAN A N AK WESTERN A N AK INT BSN N B AK S INT N B AK SO COAST N B AK PNHDL B B 8 to 14 day Outlook Table OUTLOOK FOR MAR 31 - APR 06, 2007 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON B A OREGON B A NRN CALIF N A SRN CALIF N N IDAHO B A NEVADA N N W MONTANA B A E MONTANA B A WYOMING N A UTAH N N ARIZONA N N COLORADO N N NEW MEXICO N N N DAKOTA B A S DAKOTA B A NEBRASKA N A KANSAS N N OKLAHOMA A B N TEXAS A B S TEXAS A B W TEXAS A N MINNESOTA B A IOWA N A MISSOURI N N ARKANSAS A B LOUISIANA A B WISCONSIN B A ILLINOIS N N MISSISSIPPI A B MICHIGAN B N INDIANA N N OHIO N N KENTUCKY N N TENNESSEE A N ALABAMA A B NEW YORK B B VERMONT B B NEW HAMP B B MAINE B B MASS B B CONN B B RHODE IS B B PENN N B NEW JERSEY N B W VIRGINIA N N MARYLAND N B DELAWARE N B VIRGINIA N N N CAROLINA A N S CAROLINA A N GEORGIA A N FL PNHDL A B FL PENIN N B AK N SLOPE A A AK ALEUTIAN A N AK WESTERN A A AK INT BSN A N AK S INT A B AK SO COAST A B AK PNHDL N B LEGEND TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN B - BELOW B - BELOW THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS PMDMRD. $$