PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSIONS FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 300 PM EDT FRI MAR 16 2007 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK VALID FOR MAR 22 - 26 2007 TODAYS ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE EXPECTED 500-HPA CIRCULATION FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD. A SPLIT-FLOW PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER NORTH AMERICA. A DEEP ZONALLY ORIENTED TROUGH IS FORECAST OVER NORTHERN CANADA WITH ONE CYCLONIC LOBE FORECAST OVER WESTERN ALASKA AND ANOTHER OVER THE DAVIS STRAIT. FAST ZONAL FLOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM A TROUGH IS PROGGED OVER THE INTERIOR SOUTHWESTERN U.S. WHILE RIDGES ARE FORECAST OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY AND APPROACHING THE CALIFORNIA COAST. THE 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN IS A LITTLE MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE MAIN CIRCULATION FEATURES COMPARED TO THE OTHER ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS. THE OPERATIONAL 0Z AND 6Z GFS AND OPERATIONAL ECMWF ARE SIMILAR TO THEIR CORRESPONDING ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS ALTHOUGH AS USUAL THE OPERATIONAL RUNS DO SHOW DIFFERENCES WITH REGARD TO TIMING AND AMPLITUDE OF INDIVIDUAL CIRCULATION FEATURES. HEIGHTS ACROSS THE CONUS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BE NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL EXCEPT NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS ARE PROGGED OVER THE INTERIOR SOUTHWESTERN PART OF THE NATION. HEIGHTS OVER NORTHWESTERN CANADA AND ALASKA ARE FORECAST TO BE BELOW NORMAL WHILE NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS ARE PROGGED OVER MOST OF SOUTHERN AND EASTERN CANADA. THE MODELS GENERALLY SHOW VERY GOOD CONTINUITY WITH RESPECT TO THEIR SOLUTIONS FROM YESTERDAY. THE PNA INDEX WHICH RECENTLY HAS BEEN VERY WEAKLY NEGATIVE IS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR ZERO THROUGH DAY 7... BE WEAKLY POSITIVE BY DAY 10... AND REMAIN WEAKLY POSITIVE THROUGH DAY 14. THE NAO INDEX WHICH RECENTLY HAS BEEN STRONGLY POSITIVE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN POSITIVE THROUGH DAY 7... TREND TOWARDS ZERO BY DAY 10... AND BECOME WEAKLY NEGATIVE BY DAY 14. THE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED AREA OF BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS OVER ALASKA SHOULD LEAD TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER MOST OF THE STATE. THE TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS MAY LEAD TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR PARTS OF THE INTERIOR SOUTHWEST. ZONAL FLOW OVER SOUTHERN CANADA ALONG WITH RIDGING OVER THE EAST/CENTRAL STATES SHOULD LEAD TO NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MOST OF THE REST OF THE COUNTRY. ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS OVER THE EASTERN CONUS ARE EXPECTED TO LEAD TO NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR THE EAST COAST. ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY OVER THE ALASKAN PANHANDLE AND EASTERN ALASKA DUE TO ONSHORE FLOW ALONG THE COAST... AND ANOMALOUS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE INTERIOR. THE TROUGH FORECAST OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS MAY LEAD TO AN AREA OF ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION FROM TEXAS NORTHEASTWARD TO THE GREAT LAKES. DRIER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY OVER THE FAR NORTHWESTERN PART OF ALASKA DUE TO SUBSIDENCE UPSTREAM OF THE ALASKAN TROUGH. TODAYS OFFICIAL 500-HPA BLEND CONSISTS OF 10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 0Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 8...5 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 6Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 8...10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL ECMWF CENTERED ON DAY 7...15 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...15 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...15 PERCENT OF TODAY'S GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...AND 20 PERCENT OF TODAY'S EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 7. MODEL(S) OF THE DAY: ECMWF ENSEMBLE FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD IS MUCH ABOVE AVERAGE... 5 ON A SCALE OF 1 TO 5... DUE TO GOOD AGREEMENT OF THE MODEL SOLUTIONS AND VERY GOOD AGREEMENT OF THE FORECAST TOOLS. THE 6-10 DAY TEMPERATURE PROG IS BASED ON THE KLEIN...NEURAL NET... AND ANALOG SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLENDED HEIGHT FIELD... THE CPC AUTO TEMPERATURE FORECAST... 2-METER UNCALIBRATED TEMPERATURES FROM THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN... THE CDC TEMPERATURE TOOL ... KLEIN AND NEURAL NET PROBABILITIES FROM THE VARIOUS ENSEMBLES... THE EXPERIMENTAL NORTH AMERICAN ENSEMBLE FORECAST SYSTEM TEMPERATURE TOOL... BIAS-CORRECTED 850-HPA TEMPERATURES FROM THE 0Z OPERATIONAL GFS... AND TELECONNECTIONS ON A POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY CENTER AT 42N 74W. THE 6-10 DAY PRECIPITATION PROG IS BASED ON THE NEURAL NET AND ANALOG SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLENDED HEIGHT FIELD... THE CPC AUTO PRECIPITATION FORECAST... CPC CALIBRATED PRECIPITATION PERCENTAGES FROM THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS... THE CDC REFORECAST PRECIPITATION TOOL... NEURAL NET PROBABILITIES FROM THE VARIOUS ENSEMBLES... AND TELECONNECTIONS ON A POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY CENTER AT 42N 74W. 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR MAR 24 - 30 2007: FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD THE GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN FORECAST A SLOW PROGRESSION AND DEAMPLIFICATION OF THE 500-HPA HEIGHT PATTERN FROM THAT FORECAST FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD. THE TROUGH OVER NORTHERN CANADA IS FORECAST TO REMAIN NEARLY IN PLACE WHILE THE RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS AND THE TROUGH OVER THE INTERIOR SOUTHWESTERN U.S. ARE FORECAST TO FLATTEN AND MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD. THE 6Z OPERATIONAL GFS IS SIMILAR TO THE ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS WHILE THE OPERATIONAL 0Z GFS IS MORE AMPLIFIED WITH THE INDIVIDUAL CIRCULATION FEATURES. HEIGHTS OVER MOST OF THE CONUS ARE FORECAST TO BE ABOVE NORMAL EXCEPT ALONG THE GULF COAST WHERE NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST. BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO BE FORECAST OVER ALASKA EXCEPT FOR THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS WHERE HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST TO BE NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL. THE MODELS SHOW FAIRLY GOOD CONTINUITY WITH RESPECT TO THEIR FORECASTS FROM YESTERDAY. THE TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION ANOMALY PATTERNS FORECAST FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD ARE GENERALLY SIMILAR TO THE PATTERNS FORECAST FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY HEIGHT PROG CONSISTS OF 5 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 0Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 11...10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 6Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 11...20 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...20 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...35 PERCENT OF TODAY'S GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...AND 10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11. FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD IS ABOVE AVERAGE... 4 ON A SCALE OF 1 TO 5 DUE TO GOOD MODEL AND FORECAST TOOL AGREEMENT. THE 8-14 DAY TEMPERATURE PROG IS BASED ON THE KLEIN... NEURAL NET... AND ANALOG SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE BLENDED HEIGHT FIELD ... THE UNCALIBRATED 2-METER TEMPERATURES FROM THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN... THE CPC AUTO TEMPERATURE FORECAST... THE CDC FORECAST TEMPERATURE TOOL... KLEIN AND NEURAL NET PROBABILITIES FROM THE GFS AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLES... AND THE EXPERIMENTAL NORTH AMERICAN ENSEMBLE FORECAST SYSTEM TEMPERATURE TOOL. THE 8-14 DAY PRECIPITATION PROG IS BASED ON THE NEURAL NET AND ANALOG SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLENDED HEIGHT FIELD... THE CPC AUTO PRECIPITATION FORECAST... CPC CALIBRATED PRECIPITATION PERCENTAGES FROM THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS... AND THE CDC REFORECAST PRECIPITATION TOOL. FORECASTER: R. SCHECHTER NOTES: OPERATIONAL CHANGE: AS OF JULY 5 2005 SHADED MAPS HAVE REPLACED THE CONTOUR-ONLY MAPS ON THE CPC WEB SITE. THE CONTOURED MAPS ARE STILL AVAILABLE AT THEIR CURRENT FILE NAMES - SO DIRECT-LINKED USERS ARE NOT AFFECTED. AWIPS GRAPHICS ARE ALSO NOT AFFECTED BY THIS CHANGE. AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OTHERWISE - FORECASTS INCORPORATE FORECASTER INPUT. THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION. THE NARRATIVE DESCRIPTION OF THE FORECAST PATTERNS FOR TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION FOR BOTH THE 6-10 OR 8-14 DAY PERIODS HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. THE STATE TABLES FOR BOTH THE 6-10 AND 8-14 DAY PERIODS ARE NOW CONTAINED IN THIS MESSAGE...AVAILABLE AS PMDMRD ON AWIPS. THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1971-2000 BASE PERIOD MEANS FOR TEMPERATURE...PRECIPITATION...AND 500-HPA HEIGHTS AS REFERENCE IN THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS. THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON APRIL 19. NEW NOTE EFFECTIVE MAR 16 2004: THE GLOSSARY FORMERLY FOUND AT THIS LOCATION WILL NO LONGER BE TRANSMITTED AS PART OF THIS MESSAGE. IF YOU WISH TO SEE THE DEFINITIONS OF TERMS USED IN THESE MESSAGES... PLEASE GO TO THE CPC WEB PAGE AT (USE LOWER CASE) HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV AND FOLLOW THE APPROPRIATE LINKS. ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3) FOR THE REGION FROM 20N to 70N LATITUDE AND 175E to 60W LONGITUDE INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 19720303 - 19860324 - 19860329 - 19720310 - 19780322 ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4) FOR THE REGION FROM 20N to 70N LATITUDE AND 175E to 60W LONGITUDE INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 19720303 - 19860326 - 19720311 - 19890305 - 19780326 6 to 10 day Outlook Table OUTLOOK FOR MAR 22 - 26, 2007 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON A N OREGON A B NRN CALIF A B SRN CALIF A B IDAHO A B NEVADA A B W MONTANA A B E MONTANA A B WYOMING A B UTAH A B ARIZONA N N COLORADO A N NEW MEXICO N N N DAKOTA A N S DAKOTA A N NEBRASKA A A KANSAS A A OKLAHOMA A A N TEXAS A A S TEXAS A A W TEXAS N N MINNESOTA A A IOWA A A MISSOURI A A ARKANSAS A A LOUISIANA A A WISCONSIN A A ILLINOIS A A MISSISSIPPI A A MICHIGAN A A INDIANA A A OHIO A A KENTUCKY A A TENNESSEE A A ALABAMA A A NEW YORK A N VERMONT A N NEW HAMP A B MAINE A B MASS A B CONN A B RHODE IS A B PENN A N NEW JERSEY A B W VIRGINIA A N MARYLAND A B DELAWARE A B VIRGINIA A N N CAROLINA A B S CAROLINA A B GEORGIA A N FL PNHDL A N FL PENIN N N AK N SLOPE B A AK ALEUTIAN B N AK WESTERN B N AK INT BSN B A AK S INT B A AK SO COAST B A AK PNHDL N A 8 to 14 day Outlook Table OUTLOOK FOR MAR 24 - 30, 2007 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON N A OREGON A N NRN CALIF A N SRN CALIF A B IDAHO A B NEVADA A B W MONTANA A B E MONTANA A B WYOMING A B UTAH A B ARIZONA A B COLORADO A B NEW MEXICO N N N DAKOTA A B S DAKOTA A B NEBRASKA A B KANSAS A N OKLAHOMA A N N TEXAS A N S TEXAS N A W TEXAS N N MINNESOTA A B IOWA A N MISSOURI A N ARKANSAS A N LOUISIANA N A WISCONSIN A N ILLINOIS A N MISSISSIPPI A A MICHIGAN A N INDIANA A A OHIO A A KENTUCKY A A TENNESSEE A A ALABAMA A A NEW YORK A N VERMONT A N NEW HAMP A N MAINE A B MASS A B CONN A B RHODE IS A B PENN A A NEW JERSEY A B W VIRGINIA A A MARYLAND A B DELAWARE A B VIRGINIA A N N CAROLINA A B S CAROLINA A B GEORGIA A N FL PNHDL N B FL PENIN N B AK N SLOPE B N AK ALEUTIAN B N AK WESTERN B N AK INT BSN B A AK S INT B A AK SO COAST B A AK PNHDL N A LEGEND TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN B - BELOW B - BELOW THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS PMDMRD. $$