PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSIONS FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 300 PM EST THU MAR 08 2007 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK VALID FOR MAR 14 - 18 2007 FOR THE 6 TO 10 DAY PERIOD... THE MODELS ARE BACK INTO AGREEMENT AS TO THE NATURE OF THE UPPER LEVEL HEIGHT PATTERN. THE ECMWF AND THE CANADIAN ENSEMBLES HAVE MAINTAINED THEIR ANOMALY PATTERN FROM PREVIOUS DAYS... WHILE THE GFS ENSEMBLES HAVE REVERTED TO A SOLUTION THAT MORE CLOSELY RESEMBLES THE CANADIAN/ECMWF SOLUTIONS. THE LARGE SCALE FEATURE OF AN AMPLIFIED 500 HPA RIDGE IS FORECAST OVER WESTERN SIBERIA WITH A DEEP DOWNSTREAM TROUGH OVER EASTERN ALASKA. THIS PATTERN CORRESPONDS TO SIGNIFICANT NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES OVER MOST OF ALASKA... WITH TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES THAT WILL BE VERY MUCH BELOW NORMAL FOR THE ENTIRE STATE. FOR THE CONUS... THE PATTERN WILL BE PRIMARILY ZONAL WITH A VERY SUBTLE TROUGH NEAR THE EAST COAST OF THE US AND A SLIGHT RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN US WHICH THE MODELS HAVE SLOWLY AMPLIFIED. THIS HEIGHT PATTERN SHOULD BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES OVER THE BULK OF THE CONUS. THE EXCEPTIONS TO THE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE THE FLORIDA PENINSULA... NORTHEASTERN MAINE... THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST... AND THE NORTH CENTRAL CONUS WHICH SHOULD SEE SOME NORMAL TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THIS PATTERN IS VERY UNLIKELY TO RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION FOR MOST OF THE CONUS... WITH A STRONG POSSIBILITY OF BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION OVER MOST OF THE WEST AND CENTRAL CONUS. THE ALASKAN PANHANDLE... THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION AND THE NORTHEAST MAY SEE SOME ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION AS SOME DISTURBANCES ARE FORECAST TO ADVANCE OVER THE NORTHERN CONUS. RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY HAS BEEN STRONGER FOR THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN MODELS. TODAYS OFFICIAL 500-HPA BLEND CONSISTS OF 5 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 6Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 8...5 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL ECMWF CENTERED ON DAY 7...10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...20 PERCENT OF TODAY'S GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...15 PERCENT OF TODAY'S CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...AND 35 PERCENT OF TODAY'S EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 7. MODEL(S) OF THE DAY: ECMWF ENSEMBLE FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD IS ABOVE AVERAGE... 4 ON A SCALE OF 1 TO 5... DUE TO GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS AND TOOLS AS WELL HAS STRONG FORECAST CONTINUITY. THE 6-10 DAY TEMPERATURE PROG IS BASED ON THE KLEIN...NEURAL NET... AND ANALOG SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLENDED HEIGHT FIELD... THE CPC AUTO TEMPERATURE FORECAST... AND 2-METER UNCALIBRATED AND CALIBRATED TEMPERATURES FROM THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN. THE CDC TEMPERATURE TOOL WAS ALSO CONSIDERED. THE 6-10 DAY PRECIPITATION PROG IS BASED ON THE NEURAL NET AND ANALOG SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLENDED HEIGHT FIELD... THE CPC AUTO PRECIPITATION FORECAST... AND CPC CALIBRATED PRECIPITATION PERCENTAGES FROM THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS... AND THE CDC REFORECAST PRECIPITATION TOOL. 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR MAR 16 - 22 2007: FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD.. THE AVAILABLE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE 500 HPA FLOW PATTERN. THE PATTERN FOR THIS PERIOD IS FORECAST TO REMAIN QUITE SIMILAR TO THE PATTERN FROM THE 6-10 DAY FORECAST... ALTHOUGH MORE ZONAL IN NATURE. A DEEP TROUGH IS STILL CENTERED OVER EASTERN ALASKA. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR MOST OF ALASKA... ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES MAY MODERATE SOME FOR THE WESTERN COAST. CENTRAL AND WESTERN ALASKA ARE FORECAST TO RECEIVE BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION... WITH SOME AREAS OF NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR THE EASTERNMOST PART OF THE STATE AND ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE PANHANDLE. FOR THE CONUS... ZONAL FLOW WITH POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES CONTINUE TO BE FORECAST THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. SOME NORMAL TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST FOR THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST... SOUTHERN FLORIDA AND NORTHEASTERN MAINE. THE CONUS IS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN A DRY PATTERN FOR THE MOST PART... HOWEVER SOME ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST... THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND THE OHIO VALLEY. THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY HEIGHT PROG CONSISTS OF 5 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 6Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 11...15 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...15 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...35 PERCENT OF TODAY'S GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...AND 30 PERCENT OF TODAY'S CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11. FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD IS ABOVE AVERAGE... 4 ON A SCALE OF 1 TO 5... DUE TO STRONG AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE MODELS AND TOOLS, AS WELL AS GOOD FORECAST CONTINUITY. THE 8-14 DAY TEMPERATURE PROG IS BASED ON THE THE KLEIN... NEURAL NET... AND ANALOG SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE BLENDED HEIGHT FIELD AND SOME OF THE MODELS... THE CALIBRATED 2-METER TEMPERATURES FROM THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN... AND THE CPC AUTO TEMPERATURE FORECAST... AS WELL AS THE CDC FORECAST TEMPERATURE TOOL. THE 8-14 DAY PRECIPITATION PROG IS BASED ON THE NEURAL NET AND ANALOG SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLENDED HEIGHT FIELD AND SOME OF THE MODELS... THE CPC AUTO PRECIPITATION FORECAST... AND CPC CALIBRATED PRECIPITATION PERCENTAGES FROM THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS... AND THE CDC CALIBRATED PRECIPITATION FORECAST. FORECASTER: ARMSTRONG NOTES: OPERATIONAL CHANGE: AS OF JULY 5 2005 SHADED MAPS HAVE REPLACED THE CONTOUR-ONLY MAPS ON THE CPC WEB SITE. THE CONTOURED MAPS ARE STILL AVAILABLE AT THEIR CURRENT FILE NAMES - SO DIRECT-LINKED USERS ARE NOT AFFECTED. AWIPS GRAPHICS ARE ALSO NOT AFFECTED BY THIS CHANGE. AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OTHERWISE - FORECASTS INCORPORATE FORECASTER INPUT. THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION. THE NARRATIVE DESCRIPTION OF THE FORECAST PATTERNS FOR TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION FOR BOTH THE 6-10 OR 8-14 DAY PERIODS HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. THE STATE TABLES FOR BOTH THE 6-10 AND 8-14 DAY PERIODS ARE NOW CONTAINED IN THIS MESSAGE...AVAILABLE AS PMDMRD ON AWIPS. THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1971-2000 BASE PERIOD MEANS FOR TEMPERATURE...PRECIPITATION...AND 500-HPA HEIGHTS AS REFERENCE IN THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS. THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON NEW NOTE EFFECTIVE MAR 16 2004: THE GLOSSARY FORMERLY FOUND AT THIS LOCATION WILL NO LONGER BE TRANSMITTED AS PART OF THIS MESSAGE. IF YOU WISH TO SEE THE DEFINITIONS OF TERMS USED IN THESE MESSAGES... PLEASE GO TO THE CPC WEB PAGE AT (USE LOWER CASE) HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV AND FOLLOW THE APPROPRIATE LINKS. ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3) FOR THE REGION FROM 20N to 70N LATITUDE AND 175E to 60W LONGITUDE INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 19600321 - 19790313 - 19670226 - 19970318 - 19880319 ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4) FOR THE REGION FROM 20N to 70N LATITUDE AND 175E to 60W LONGITUDE INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 19600320 - 19670226 - 19880319 - 19970318 - 19720219 6 to 10 day Outlook Table OUTLOOK FOR MAR 14 - 18, 2007 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON N N OREGON A N NRN CALIF A B SRN CALIF A B IDAHO A N NEVADA A B W MONTANA A N E MONTANA A N WYOMING A B UTAH A B ARIZONA A B COLORADO A B NEW MEXICO A B N DAKOTA N N S DAKOTA A B NEBRASKA A B KANSAS A B OKLAHOMA A B N TEXAS A B S TEXAS A B W TEXAS A B MINNESOTA B N IOWA A B MISSOURI A B ARKANSAS A B LOUISIANA A B WISCONSIN N A ILLINOIS A N MISSISSIPPI A N MICHIGAN N A INDIANA A N OHIO A N KENTUCKY A N TENNESSEE A N ALABAMA A N NEW YORK A N VERMONT A N NEW HAMP A N MAINE N A MASS A N CONN A N RHODE IS A N PENN A N NEW JERSEY A N W VIRGINIA A N MARYLAND A B DELAWARE A B VIRGINIA A B N CAROLINA A B S CAROLINA A B GEORGIA A N FL PNHDL N N FL PENIN N N AK N SLOPE B B AK ALEUTIAN B B AK WESTERN B B AK INT BSN B B AK S INT B B AK SO COAST B B AK PNHDL B A 8 to 14 day Outlook Table OUTLOOK FOR MAR 16 - 22, 2007 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON N A OREGON N N NRN CALIF A B SRN CALIF A B IDAHO A N NEVADA A B W MONTANA A N E MONTANA A N WYOMING A B UTAH A B ARIZONA A B COLORADO A B NEW MEXICO A B N DAKOTA A N S DAKOTA A B NEBRASKA A B KANSAS A B OKLAHOMA A B N TEXAS A B S TEXAS A B W TEXAS A B MINNESOTA A N IOWA A B MISSOURI A B ARKANSAS A B LOUISIANA A B WISCONSIN A N ILLINOIS A N MISSISSIPPI A B MICHIGAN N A INDIANA A A OHIO A A KENTUCKY A A TENNESSEE A N ALABAMA A B NEW YORK A A VERMONT A N NEW HAMP A N MAINE N N MASS A N CONN A B RHODE IS A N PENN A N NEW JERSEY A B W VIRGINIA A N MARYLAND A B DELAWARE A B VIRGINIA A B N CAROLINA A B S CAROLINA A B GEORGIA A B FL PNHDL A B FL PENIN N B AK N SLOPE B B AK ALEUTIAN B B AK WESTERN B B AK INT BSN B B AK S INT B B AK SO COAST B B AK PNHDL B A LEGEND TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN B - BELOW B - BELOW THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS PMDMRD. $$