PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSIONS FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 300 PM EST TUE MAR 06 2007 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK VALID FOR MAR 12 - 16 2007 FOR THE 6 TO 10 DAY PERIOD... THE PATTERN MAINTAINS THE SAME CHARACTER AS FORECAST YESTERDAY. THE MODEL FORECASTS HAVE CHANGED LITTLE AND ARE IN STRONG AGREEMENT FOR THE MEAN UPPER LEVEL HEIGHT PATTERN. AN AMPLIFIED 500 HPA RIDGE IS FORECAST OVER WESTERN SIBERIA WITH A DEEP DOWNSTREAM TROUGH OVER EASTERN ALASKA. THE PATTERN IS TRANSLATED SLIGHTLY EASTWARD... BUT STILL IS FORECAST TO CAUSE SIGNIFICANT NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES OVER MOST OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN ALASKA. THE CORRESPONDING TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES WILL BE VERY MUCH BELOW NORMAL FOR THE ENTIRE STATE. FOR THE CONUS... THE PATTERN WILL BE PRIMARILY ZONAL WITH A VERY SUBTLE TROUGH NEAR THE EAST COAST OF THE US. SOME ENSEMBLE MEMBERS HAVE A SLIGHTLY MORE AMPLIFIED TROUGH... BUT THE BULK OF THEM MAINTAIN A ZONAL PATTERN. THIS HEIGHT PATTERN SHOULD BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES OVER THE BULK OF THE CONUS. THE EXCEPTIONS ARE THE FLORIDA PENINSULA... NORTHEASTERN MAINE AND THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST... WHICH SHOULD SEE SOME NORMAL TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THIS PATTERN IS VERY UNLIKELY TO RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION FOR MOST OF THE CONUS... WITH A STRONG POSSIBILITY OF BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION OVER MOST OF THE WEST AND CENTRAL CONUS. THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST... THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION AND THE NORTHEAST MAY SEE SOME ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION AS SOME DISTURBANCES ARE FORECAST TO ADVANCE OVER THE NORTHERN CONUS. RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY FOR THE MODELS HAS BEEN STRONG FOR THE LAST FEW DAYS AND AS PREVIOUSLY STATED ENSEMBLE SPREAD IS RELATIVELY LOW. TODAYS OFFICIAL 500-HPA BLEND CONSISTS OF 5 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 6Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 8...5 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL ECMWF CENTERED ON DAY 7...10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...30 PERCENT OF TODAY'S GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...AND 30 PERCENT OF TODAY'S EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 7. MODEL(S) OF THE DAY: GFS SUPERENSEMBLE FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD IS ABOVE AVERAGE... 4 ON A SCALE OF 1 TO 5... DUE TO GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS AND TOOLS AS WELL HAS STRONG FORECAST CONTINUITY. THE 6-10 DAY TEMPERATURE PROG IS BASED ON THE KLEIN...NEURAL NET... AND ANALOG SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLENDED HEIGHT FIELD... THE CPC AUTO TEMPERATURE FORECAST... AND 2-METER UNCALIBRATED AND CALIBRATED TEMPERATURES FROM THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN. THE CDC TEMPERATURE TOOL WAS ALSO CONSIDERED. THE 6-10 DAY PRECIPITATION PROG IS BASED ON THE NEURAL NET AND ANALOG SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLENDED HEIGHT FIELD... THE CPC AUTO PRECIPITATION FORECAST... AND CPC CALIBRATED PRECIPITATION PERCENTAGES FROM THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS... AND THE CDC REFORECAST PRECIPITATION TOOL. 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR MAR 14 - 20 2007: FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD.. THE MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE 500 HPA FLOW PATTERN. THE PATTERN FOR THIS PERIOD IS FORECAST TO REMAIN QUITE SIMILAR TO THE PATTERN FROM THE 6-10 DAY FORECAST. ENSEMBLE SPREAD INCREASES... WITH SOME MEMBERS SUGGESTING MORE AMPLIFIED FEATURES. THE MEAN PATTERN IS STILL A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE/TROUGH SYSTEM THAT BRACKETS ALASKA IS STILL PROMINENT THROUGHOUT WEEK 2. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR MOST OF ALASKA. THE TROUGH AXIS IS FORECAST TO PROPAGATE SLIGHTLY TO THE EAST... BUT THE EFFECTS REMAIN THE SAME FOR MUCH OF ALASKA. CENTRAL AND WESTERN ALASKA ARE FORECAST TO RECEIVE BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION... WITH NORMAL CONDITIONS FOR THE EASTERNMOST PART OF THE STATE AND THE PANHANDLE. FOR THE CONUS... ZONAL FLOW WITH POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES CONTINUE TO BE FORECAST THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. THE EXCEPTIONS TO THIS WARM PATTERN ARE THE SAME AS IN THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD. SOME NORMAL TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST FOR THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST... SOUTHERN FLORIDA AND NORTHEASTERN MAINE. THE CONUS IS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN A DRY PATTERN FOR THE MOST PART... HOWEVER SOME ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST... THE GREAT LAKES REGION EXTENDING SOUTHWARD INTO KENTUCKY. THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY HEIGHT PROG CONSISTS OF 5 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 6Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 11...15 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...15 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...30 PERCENT OF TODAY'S GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...20 PERCENT OF TODAY'S CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...AND 15 PERCENT OF TODAY'S AUTO BLEND CENTERED ON DAY 11. FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD IS ABOVE AVERAGE... 4 ON A SCALE OF 1 TO 5... DUE TO STRONG AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE MODELS AND TOOLS, AS WELL AS GOOD FORECAST CONTINUITY. THE 8-14 DAY TEMPERATURE PROG IS BASED ON THE THE KLEIN... NEURAL NET... AND ANALOG SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE BLENDED HEIGHT FIELD AND SOME OF THE MODELS... THE CALIBRATED 2-METER TEMPERATURES FROM THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN... AND THE CPC AUTO TEMPERATURE FORECAST... AS WELL AS THE CDC FORECAST TEMPERATURE TOOL. THE 8-14 DAY PRECIPITATION PROG IS BASED ON THE NEURAL NET AND ANALOG SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLENDED HEIGHT FIELD AND SOME OF THE MODELS... THE CPC AUTO PRECIPITATION FORECAST... AND CPC CALIBRATED PRECIPITATION PERCENTAGES FROM THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS... AND THE CDC CALIBRATED PRECIPITATION FORECAST. FORECASTER: ARMSTRONG NOTES: OPERATIONAL CHANGE: AS OF JULY 5 2005 SHADED MAPS HAVE REPLACED THE CONTOUR-ONLY MAPS ON THE CPC WEB SITE. THE CONTOURED MAPS ARE STILL AVAILABLE AT THEIR CURRENT FILE NAMES - SO DIRECT-LINKED USERS ARE NOT AFFECTED. AWIPS GRAPHICS ARE ALSO NOT AFFECTED BY THIS CHANGE. AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OTHERWISE - FORECASTS INCORPORATE FORECASTER INPUT. THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION. THE NARRATIVE DESCRIPTION OF THE FORECAST PATTERNS FOR TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION FOR BOTH THE 6-10 OR 8-14 DAY PERIODS HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. THE STATE TABLES FOR BOTH THE 6-10 AND 8-14 DAY PERIODS ARE NOW CONTAINED IN THIS MESSAGE...AVAILABLE AS PMDMRD ON AWIPS. THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1971-2000 BASE PERIOD MEANS FOR TEMPERATURE...PRECIPITATION...AND 500-HPA HEIGHTS AS REFERENCE IN THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS. THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON NEW NOTE EFFECTIVE MAR 16 2004: THE GLOSSARY FORMERLY FOUND AT THIS LOCATION WILL NO LONGER BE TRANSMITTED AS PART OF THIS MESSAGE. IF YOU WISH TO SEE THE DEFINITIONS OF TERMS USED IN THESE MESSAGES... PLEASE GO TO THE CPC WEB PAGE AT (USE LOWER CASE) HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV AND FOLLOW THE APPROPRIATE LINKS. ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3) FOR THE REGION FROM 20N to 70N LATITUDE AND 175E to 60W LONGITUDE INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 19600319 - 19660220 - 19660306 - 19670225 - 19600305 ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4) FOR THE REGION FROM 20N to 70N LATITUDE AND 175E to 60W LONGITUDE INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 19660220 - 19660305 - 19600309 - 19560220 - 19960318 6 to 10 day Outlook Table OUTLOOK FOR MAR 12 - 16, 2007 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON N A OREGON A N NRN CALIF A B SRN CALIF A B IDAHO A B NEVADA A B W MONTANA A N E MONTANA A N WYOMING A B UTAH A B ARIZONA A B COLORADO A B NEW MEXICO A B N DAKOTA N N S DAKOTA A B NEBRASKA A B KANSAS A B OKLAHOMA A B N TEXAS A B S TEXAS A N W TEXAS A B MINNESOTA N N IOWA A B MISSOURI A B ARKANSAS A B LOUISIANA A N WISCONSIN N A ILLINOIS A B MISSISSIPPI A N MICHIGAN A A INDIANA A B OHIO A B KENTUCKY A B TENNESSEE A B ALABAMA A N NEW YORK A N VERMONT A A NEW HAMP A A MAINE N A MASS A A CONN A N RHODE IS A A PENN A N NEW JERSEY A N W VIRGINIA A B MARYLAND A N DELAWARE A N VIRGINIA A N N CAROLINA A N S CAROLINA A N GEORGIA N N FL PNHDL N N FL PENIN N N AK N SLOPE B B AK ALEUTIAN B B AK WESTERN B B AK INT BSN B B AK S INT B N AK SO COAST B A AK PNHDL B A 8 to 14 day Outlook Table OUTLOOK FOR MAR 14 - 20, 2007 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON B A OREGON A A NRN CALIF A N SRN CALIF A B IDAHO A A NEVADA A B W MONTANA N N E MONTANA N N WYOMING A N UTAH A B ARIZONA A B COLORADO A B NEW MEXICO A B N DAKOTA N N S DAKOTA A B NEBRASKA A B KANSAS A B OKLAHOMA A B N TEXAS A B S TEXAS A B W TEXAS A B MINNESOTA N N IOWA A B MISSOURI A B ARKANSAS A B LOUISIANA A B WISCONSIN A N ILLINOIS A N MISSISSIPPI A B MICHIGAN A A INDIANA A A OHIO A A KENTUCKY A A TENNESSEE A N ALABAMA A B NEW YORK A N VERMONT A N NEW HAMP A N MAINE B N MASS A N CONN A B RHODE IS N N PENN A N NEW JERSEY A B W VIRGINIA A N MARYLAND A B DELAWARE A B VIRGINIA A B N CAROLINA A B S CAROLINA A B GEORGIA A B FL PNHDL A B FL PENIN B N AK N SLOPE B B AK ALEUTIAN B B AK WESTERN B B AK INT BSN B B AK S INT B B AK SO COAST B B AK PNHDL B N LEGEND TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN B - BELOW B - BELOW THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS PMDMRD. $$