PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSIONS FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 300 PM EST WED FEB 21 2007 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK VALID FOR FEB 27 - MAR 03, 2007 TODAYS ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE KEY 500-HPA CIRCULATION FEATURES PREDICTED OVER THE PACIFIC - NORTH AMERICA SECTOR DURING THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD. THE OVERALL PICTURE SHOWN BY THE ENSEMBLES SUGGESTS THAT A MEAN TROUGH WILL BE LOCATED OVER EASTERN SIBERIA AND A RIDGE WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE BERING SEA. IN ADDITION... A TROUGH ACROSS THE ALASKA/YUKON BORDER IS PROGGED TO EXTEND SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA WITH UNDERCUTTING WESTERLIES OVER THE MID-LATITUDE EAST PACIFIC. MAINLY ZONAL FLOW IS EXPECTED OVER THE CONUS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A TROUGH EXPECTED TO EXTEND ACROSS THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS. COLDER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED ACROSS EASTERN ALASKA AND MUCH OF THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL CONUS... WITH LINGERING WARMTH POSSIBLE OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. NEAR AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST FOR ALL OTHER AREAS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE ALEUTIANS WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE ABOVE AVERAGE. IN TERMS OF PRECIPITATION... WE EXPECT WETTER THAN USUAL CONDITIONS FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF STATES TO THE MIDDLE AND NORTHERN ATLANTIC COASTS. THIS AREA OF ABOVE AVERAGE PRECIPITATION IS ASSOCIATED WITH AN ENHANCED JETSTREAM WHICH RESULTS FROM THE MERGING OF POLAR AND TEMPERATE JETSTREAMS OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND SOUTHERN GULF OF ALASKA. TODAYS OFFICIAL 500-HPA BLEND CONSISTS OF 20 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...20 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...30 PERCENT OF TODAY'S GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...AND 20 PERCENT OF TODAY'S EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 7. MODEL(S) OF THE DAY: GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD IS NEAR AVERAGE... 3 ON A SCALE OF 1 TO 5... AS UNCERTAINTY INCREASES IN A PREDICTED ZONAL FLOW PATTERN. THE 6-10 DAY TEMPERATURE PROG IS BASED ON THE KLEIN...NEURAL NET... AND ANALOG SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLENDED HEIGHT FIELD... THE CPC AUTO TEMPERATURE FORECAST... AND 2-METER UNCALIBRATED AND CALIBRATED TEMPERATURES FROM THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN. THE 1000 TO 500 HPA THICKNESS PATTERNS FROM THE OPERATIONAL 6Z AND 12Z GFS MODELS WERE ALSO CONSIDERED. THE CDC REFORECAST TEMPERATURE TOOL WAS NOT AVAILABLE TODAY. THE 6-10 DAY PRECIPITATION PROG IS BASED ON THE NEURAL NET AND ANALOG SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLENDED HEIGHT FIELD... THE CPC AUTO PRECIPITATION FORECAST... AND CPC CALIBRATED PRECIPITATION PERCENTAGES FROM THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS. THE MEAN STORM TRACKS INDICATED BY THE OPERATIONAL 6Z AND 12Z GFS MODEL RUNS WERE ALSO CONSIDERED. THE CDC REFORECAST PRECIPITATION TOOL WAS NOT AVAILABLE TODAY. 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR MAR 01 - 07 2007: THE ENSEMBLE MEAN HEIGHT FORECASTS ARE IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT AT HIGHER LATITUDES OF THE PACIFIC AND NORTH AMERICA FOR THE WEEK 2 PERIOD... FORECASTING SLIGHT EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE LONGER WAVES FROM THEIR 6-10 DAY POSITIONS. IT IS ANOTHER STORY HOWEVER OVER THE MID-LATITUDES OF THE PACIFIC AND NORTH AMERICA WHERE NEARLY ALL HEIGHT PROGS INDICATE A FAIRLY FLAT FLOW PATTERN. THE PREDICTED WEEK 2 TEMPERATURE PATTERN INDICATES A FAIRLY LARGE AREA OF NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ... AND THIS UNCERTAINTY IS ALSO REFLECTED IN THE MODEST PROBABILITY VALUES. THE ABOVE-AVERAGE PRECIPITATION IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST IS THOUGHT TO BE A FAIRLY GOOD BET... BUT THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW RAPIDLY THE RELATIVELY WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP AND SPREAD EASTWARD FROM THE SOUTHWEST U.S.. THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY HEIGHT PROG CONSISTS OF 20 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...20 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...40 PERCENT OF TODAY'S GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...AND 20 PERCENT OF TODAY'S CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11. FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD IS BELOW AVERAGE... 2 ON A SCALE OF 1 TO 5... BASED ON THE EXPECTATION OF A ZONAL FLOW PATTERN OVER THE CONUS. THE 8-14 DAY TEMPERATURE PROG IS BASED ON THE THE KLEIN... NEURAL NET... AND ANALOG SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE BLENDED HEIGHT FIELD... THE CALIBRATED 2-METER TEMPERATURES FROM THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN... AND THE CPC AUTO TEMPERATURE FORECAST. THE CDC REFORECAST TEMPERATURE TOOL WAS NOT AVAILABLE TODAY. THE 8-14 DAY PRECIPITATION PROG IS BASED ON THE NEURAL NET AND ANALOG SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLENDED HEIGHT FIELD... THE CPC AUTO PRECIPITATION FORECAST... AND CPC CALIBRATED PRECIPITATION PERCENTAGES FROM THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS. THE CDC CALIBRATED PRECIPITATION FORECAST WAS NOT AVAILABLE. FORECASTER: ARTUSA NOTES: OPERATIONAL CHANGE: AS OF JULY 5 2005 SHADED MAPS HAVE REPLACED THE CONTOUR-ONLY MAPS ON THE CPC WEB SITE. THE CONTOURED MAPS ARE STILL AVAILABLE AT THEIR CURRENT FILE NAMES - SO DIRECT-LINKED USERS ARE NOT AFFECTED. AWIPS GRAPHICS ARE ALSO NOT AFFECTED BY THIS CHANGE. AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OTHERWISE - FORECASTS INCORPORATE FORECASTER INPUT. THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION. THE NARRATIVE DESCRIPTION OF THE FORECAST PATTERNS FOR TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION FOR BOTH THE 6-10 OR 8-14 DAY PERIODS HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. THE STATE TABLES FOR BOTH THE 6-10 AND 8-14 DAY PERIODS ARE NOW CONTAINED IN THIS MESSAGE...AVAILABLE AS PMDMRD ON AWIPS. THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1971-2000 BASE PERIOD MEANS FOR TEMPERATURE...PRECIPITATION...AND 500-HPA HEIGHTS AS REFERENCE IN THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS. THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON MARCH 15. NEW NOTE EFFECTIVE MAR 16 2004: THE GLOSSARY FORMERLY FOUND AT THIS LOCATION WILL NO LONGER BE TRANSMITTED AS PART OF THIS MESSAGE. IF YOU WISH TO SEE THE DEFINITIONS OF TERMS USED IN THESE MESSAGES... PLEASE GO TO THE CPC WEB PAGE AT (USE LOWER CASE) HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV AND FOLLOW THE APPROPRIATE LINKS. ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3) FOR THE REGION FROM 20N to 70N LATITUDE AND 175E to 60W LONGITUDE INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 19740210 - 19790207 - 19560228 - 19650221 - 19640211 ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4) FOR THE REGION FROM 20N to 70N LATITUDE AND 175E to 60W LONGITUDE INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 19740210 - 19790206 - 19640210 - 19560229 - 19650221 6 to 10 day Outlook Table OUTLOOK FOR FEB 27 - MAR 03, 2007 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON B A OREGON B A NRN CALIF B A SRN CALIF N N IDAHO B A NEVADA B A W MONTANA B A E MONTANA B A WYOMING B A UTAH B N ARIZONA N B COLORADO B N NEW MEXICO B B N DAKOTA B A S DAKOTA B A NEBRASKA B N KANSAS B B OKLAHOMA B B N TEXAS B B S TEXAS N N W TEXAS B B MINNESOTA N A IOWA B N MISSOURI B N ARKANSAS B N LOUISIANA B N WISCONSIN N A ILLINOIS B A MISSISSIPPI B N MICHIGAN N A INDIANA B A OHIO N A KENTUCKY B A TENNESSEE B A ALABAMA N A NEW YORK N A VERMONT N A NEW HAMP A A MAINE A A MASS N A CONN N A RHODE IS N A PENN N A NEW JERSEY N A W VIRGINIA N A MARYLAND N A DELAWARE N N VIRGINIA N A N CAROLINA N N S CAROLINA N N GEORGIA N N FL PNHDL N N FL PENIN N N AK N SLOPE N B AK ALEUTIAN A B AK WESTERN N B AK INT BSN B B AK S INT B B AK SO COAST B B AK PNHDL B N 8 to 14 day Outlook Table OUTLOOK FOR MAR 01 - 07, 2007 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON B A OREGON B A NRN CALIF N A SRN CALIF A B IDAHO N A NEVADA N N W MONTANA B A E MONTANA N N WYOMING N N UTAH A B ARIZONA A B COLORADO A B NEW MEXICO A B N DAKOTA N N S DAKOTA N N NEBRASKA N B KANSAS A B OKLAHOMA A B N TEXAS A B S TEXAS A B W TEXAS A B MINNESOTA N N IOWA N N MISSOURI N N ARKANSAS A B LOUISIANA A B WISCONSIN N N ILLINOIS N N MISSISSIPPI N B MICHIGAN B N INDIANA N N OHIO B A KENTUCKY N A TENNESSEE N N ALABAMA N B NEW YORK B A VERMONT B A NEW HAMP B A MAINE B N MASS B N CONN B N RHODE IS B N PENN B A NEW JERSEY B N W VIRGINIA B A MARYLAND B N DELAWARE B N VIRGINIA B N N CAROLINA N N S CAROLINA N N GEORGIA N N FL PNHDL N B FL PENIN N B AK N SLOPE B N AK ALEUTIAN A B AK WESTERN N B AK INT BSN N B AK S INT N B AK SO COAST N B AK PNHDL B B LEGEND TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN B - BELOW B - BELOW THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS PMDMRD. $$