PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSIONS FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 300 PM EST FRI FEB 16 2007 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK VALID FOR FEB 22 - 26 2007 TODAYS ENSEMBLE MEAN FORECASTS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE EXPECTED FLOW PATTERN FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD. A DEEP ZONALLY ORIENTED TROUGH IS FORECAST OVER CANADA WHILE MOST OF THE U.S. IS FORECAST TO BE DOMINATED BY FAST ZONAL FLOW. A WEAK TROUGH IS EXPECTED OVER THE WESTERN PART OF THE NATION AND A FLAT RIDGE IS FORECAST OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. AN AMPLIFIED RIDGE IS EXPECTED WEST OF ALASKA AND A TROUGH IS FORECAST OVER THE EASTERN PART OF THE STATE. TODAYS OPERATIONAL GFS SOLUTIONS AND YESTERDAYS 12Z ECMWF OPERATIONAL FORECAST ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE ENSEMBLE MEAN FORECASTS... ALTHOUGH THE OPERATIONAL RUNS SHOW DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND AMPLITUDE OF INDIVIDUAL CIRCULATION FEATURES... AND THE 0Z OPERATIONAL GFS INDICATES AN EVOLUTION TOWARDS A SPLIT-FLOW PATTERN OVER THE CONUS. 500-HPA HEIGHTS ARE GENERALLY FORECAST TO BE NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL OVER THE WESTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE COUNTRY AND NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL OVER THE EASTERN THIRD. HEIGHTS OVER MOST OF ALASKA ARE FORECAST TO BE BELOW NORMAL EXCEPT OVER THE EXTREME WESTERN PART OF THE STATE AND THE ALEUTIANS WHERE ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST. THE MODELS GENERALLY SHOW FAIRLY GOOD CONTINUITY WITH RESPECT TO THEIR SOLUTIONS FROM YESTERDAY. THE PNA INDEX WHICH RECENTLY HAS BEEN WEAKLY POSITIVE IS FORECAST TO TREND TO WEAKLY NEGATIVE BY DAY 7 AND REMAIN NEGATIVE THROUGH DAY 14. THE NAO INDEX WHICH RECENTLY HAS BEEN NEAR ZERO IS FORECAST TO REMAIN NEAR ZERO THROUGH DAY 14. AS HEIGHTS RISE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS TEMPERATURES SHOULD MODERATE FROM BELOW NORMAL TO NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL. THE TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST SHOULD LEAD TO COOLER AND WETTER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS OVER MOST OF THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS. THE ZONAL FLOW PATTERN FAVORS AN ACTIVE STORM TRACK ACROSS THE CONUS THAT SHOULD LEAD TO ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR MUCH OF THE EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY. MOST OF ALASKA SHOULD HAVE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION DUE TO FLOW AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF THE TROUGH EXPECTED OVER THE EASTERN PART OF THE STATE. TODAYS OFFICIAL 500-HPA BLEND CONSISTS OF 10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 0Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 8...10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 6Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 8...5 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL ECMWF CENTERED ON DAY 7...15 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...15 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...20 PERCENT OF TODAY'S GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...5 PERCENT OF TODAY'S CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...AND 20 PERCENT OF TODAY'S EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 7. MODEL(S) OF THE DAY: GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN (TIED). FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD IS ABOUT AVERAGE... 3 ON A SCALE OF 1 TO 5. THE 6-10 DAY TEMPERATURE PROG IS BASED ON THE KLEIN...NEURAL NET... AND ANALOG SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLENDED HEIGHT FIELD... THE CPC AUTO TEMPERATURE FORECAST... BIAS-CORRECTED 850-HPA TEMPERATURES FROM THE 0Z OPERATIONAL GFS... KLEIN AND NEURAL NET PROBABILITIES FROM THE ENSEMBLE MEAN FORECASTS... 2-METER UNCALIBRATED AND CALIBRATED TEMPERATURES FROM THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN... AND THE CDC CALIBRATED TEMPERATURE FORECAST. THE 6-10 DAY PRECIPITATION PROG IS BASED ON THE NEURAL NET AND ANALOG SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLENDED HEIGHT FIELD... THE CPC AUTO PRECIPITATION FORECAST... CPC CALIBRATED PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS FROM VARIOUS GFS MODEL FIELDS... CPC CALIBRATED PRECIPITATION PERCENTAGES FROM THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS... NEURAL NET PROBABILITIES FROM THE ENSEMBLE MEAN FORECASTS... AND THE CDC CALIBRATED PRECIPITATION FORECAST. 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR FEB 24 - MAR 02, 2007: FOR THE WEEK 2 PERIOD THE GFS AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEANS FORECAST THE CONUS TO BE DOMINATED BY FAST ZONAL FLOW. A TROUGH IS FORECAST OVER EASTERN ALASKA WHILE A RIDGE IS PROGGED OVER THE WESTERN PART OF THE STATE AND THE ALEUTIANS. THE 0Z AND 6Z OPERATIONAL GFS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE ENSEMBLE MEAN FORECASTS ALTHOUGH THE 0Z OPERATIONAL GFS CONTINUES TO INDICATE A SPLIT-FLOW PATTERN OVER THE CONUS. NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE WESTERN THREE QUARTERS OF THE CONUS AND MOST OF ALASKA AND NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS ARE PROGGED OVER THE EASTERN ONE QUARTER OF THE CONUS AND THE ALEUTIANS. THE MODELS GENERALLY SHOW GOOD CONTINUITY WITH RESPECT TO THEIR SOLUTIONS FROM YESTERDAY ALTHOUGH THE OPERATIONAL 6Z GFS IS LESS AMPLIFIED WITH THE CIRCULATION PATTERN TODAY COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. UNDER ZONAL FLOW AND NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS... MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS IS LIKLEY TO HAVE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION. THE WEAK TROUGH MOVING OVER THE WEST SHOULD LEAD TO BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS AND TEMPERATURES FOR THAT REGION. ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY FOR THE PACIFC NORTHWEST AHEAD OF THE TROUGH OVER EASTERN ALASKA/GULF OF ALASKA. MOST OF ALASKA IS LIKELY TO HAVE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION DUE TO ANOMALOUS NORTHERLY FLOW AROUND THE BACK OF THE TROUGH FORECAST OVER THE EASTERN PART OF THE STATE. THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY HEIGHT PROG CONSISTS OF 10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 0Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 11...10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 6Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 11...15 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...15 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...40 PERCENT OF TODAY'S GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...AND 10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11. FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD IS ABOUT AVERAGE... 3 ON A SCALE OF 1 TO 5. THE 8-14 DAY TEMPERATURE PROG IS BASED ON THE THE KLEIN... NEURAL NET... AND ANALOG SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE BLENDED HEIGHT FIELD... 850-HPA BIAS-CORRECTED TEMPERATURES FROM THE 0Z OPERATIONAL GFS... THE KLEIN AND NEURAL NET PROBABILITIES FROM THE GFS ENSEMBLE... THE CALIBRATED 2-METER TEMPERATURES FROM THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN... AND THE CPC CALIBRATED TEMPEARTURE FORECAST. THE 8-14 DAY PRECIPITATION PROG IS BASED ON THE NEURAL NET AND ANALOG SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLENDED HEIGHT FIELD... THE CPC AUTO PRECIPITATION FORECAST... CPC CALIBRATED PRECIPITATION PERCENTAGES FROM THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS... NEURAL NET PROBABILITIES FROM THE GFS AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLES... CALIBRATED PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS FROM THE VARIOUS MODELS... AND THE CDC CALIBRATED PRECIPITATION FORECAST. FORECASTER: R. SCHECHTER NOTES: OPERATIONAL CHANGE: AS OF JULY 5 2005 SHADED MAPS HAVE REPLACED THE CONTOUR-ONLY MAPS ON THE CPC WEB SITE. THE CONTOURED MAPS ARE STILL AVAILABLE AT THEIR CURRENT FILE NAMES - SO DIRECT-LINKED USERS ARE NOT AFFECTED. AWIPS GRAPHICS ARE ALSO NOT AFFECTED BY THIS CHANGE. AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OTHERWISE - FORECASTS INCORPORATE FORECASTER INPUT. THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION. THE NARRATIVE DESCRIPTION OF THE FORECAST PATTERNS FOR TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION FOR BOTH THE 6-10 OR 8-14 DAY PERIODS HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. THE STATE TABLES FOR BOTH THE 6-10 AND 8-14 DAY PERIODS ARE NOW CONTAINED IN THIS MESSAGE...AVAILABLE AS PMDMRD ON AWIPS. THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1971-2000 BASE PERIOD MEANS FOR TEMPERATURE...PRECIPITATION...AND 500-HPA HEIGHTS AS REFERENCE IN THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS. THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON FEBRUARY 15. NEW NOTE EFFECTIVE MAR 16 2004: THE GLOSSARY FORMERLY FOUND AT THIS LOCATION WILL NO LONGER BE TRANSMITTED AS PART OF THIS MESSAGE. IF YOU WISH TO SEE THE DEFINITIONS OF TERMS USED IN THESE MESSAGES... PLEASE GO TO THE CPC WEB PAGE AT (USE LOWER CASE) HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV AND FOLLOW THE APPROPRIATE LINKS. ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3) FOR THE REGION FROM 20N to 70N LATITUDE AND 175E to 60W LONGITUDE INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 19780215 - 19800210 - 19770206 - 19780223 - 19860208 ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4) FOR THE REGION FROM 20N to 70N LATITUDE AND 175E to 60W LONGITUDE INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 19780224 - 19770206 - 19680212 - 19800212 - 19610126 6 to 10 day Outlook Table OUTLOOK FOR FEB 22 - 26, 2007 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON B A OREGON B A NRN CALIF B A SRN CALIF B A IDAHO B A NEVADA B A W MONTANA B N E MONTANA N N WYOMING B N UTAH B A ARIZONA B A COLORADO N N NEW MEXICO B N N DAKOTA N N S DAKOTA N N NEBRASKA N N KANSAS N N OKLAHOMA N N N TEXAS A N S TEXAS A N W TEXAS N N MINNESOTA A N IOWA A N MISSOURI N A ARKANSAS A A LOUISIANA A A WISCONSIN A A ILLINOIS N A MISSISSIPPI A A MICHIGAN N A INDIANA N A OHIO N A KENTUCKY A A TENNESSEE A A ALABAMA A A NEW YORK N A VERMONT N A NEW HAMP N A MAINE N N MASS N A CONN N A RHODE IS N A PENN N A NEW JERSEY N A W VIRGINIA A A MARYLAND A A DELAWARE A A VIRGINIA A A N CAROLINA A A S CAROLINA A A GEORGIA A A FL PNHDL A A FL PENIN A N AK N SLOPE B B AK ALEUTIAN B B AK WESTERN B B AK INT BSN B B AK S INT B B AK SO COAST B B AK PNHDL B N 8 to 14 day Outlook Table OUTLOOK FOR FEB 24 - MAR 02, 2007 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON B A OREGON B A NRN CALIF B N SRN CALIF B N IDAHO B N NEVADA B N W MONTANA N N E MONTANA N N WYOMING N N UTAH B N ARIZONA B B COLORADO B N NEW MEXICO B B N DAKOTA A N S DAKOTA N N NEBRASKA N N KANSAS N N OKLAHOMA N N N TEXAS N A S TEXAS N N W TEXAS N B MINNESOTA A N IOWA N A MISSOURI N A ARKANSAS N A LOUISIANA N A WISCONSIN A A ILLINOIS N A MISSISSIPPI N A MICHIGAN N A INDIANA N A OHIO N A KENTUCKY N A TENNESSEE N A ALABAMA A A NEW YORK A A VERMONT A A NEW HAMP A A MAINE A N MASS A A CONN A A RHODE IS A A PENN A A NEW JERSEY A A W VIRGINIA A A MARYLAND A A DELAWARE A A VIRGINIA A A N CAROLINA A A S CAROLINA A A GEORGIA A A FL PNHDL A A FL PENIN A A AK N SLOPE B B AK ALEUTIAN B B AK WESTERN B B AK INT BSN B B AK S INT B B AK SO COAST B B AK PNHDL B N LEGEND TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN B - BELOW B - BELOW THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS PMDMRD. $$