PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSIONS FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 300 PM EST FRI FEB 09 2007 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK VALID FOR FEB 15 - 19 2007 TODAYS MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE 6-10 DAY MEAN 500-HPA FLOW PATTERN PREDICTED OVER NORTH AMERICA AND ARE VERY SIMILAR TO YESTERDAYS SOLUTIONS. A RIDGE IS PREDICTED TO BUILD OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA EXTENDING INTO ALASKA. A BROAD TROUGH IS PREDICTED TO BE OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN NORTH AMERICA. THE MOST RECENT HIGH RESOLUTION ECMWF AND THE CANADIAN ENSEMBLES BOTH INDICATE ABOVE NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS EXTENDING INTO WESTERN NORTH AMERICA... WHILE MOST GFS MEMBERS KEEP HEIGHTS BELOW NORMAL THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE WEST. THUS THERE IS MORE UNCERTIANTY IN TODAYS FORECAST THAN IN FORECASTS MADE EARLIER IN THE WEEK... ESPECIALLY IN AREAS TO THE WEST OF THE ROCKIES AND IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS. TEMPERATURES IN MOST OF THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL U.S. ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL. THE PREDICTED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES IN ALASKA ABOVE NORMAL EXCEPT IN EASTERN PARTS OF THE STATE. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT A SOUTHERN JET WILL KEEP THE MAIN STORM TRACK OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CONUS... ALTHOUGH SIGNALS FOR ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION ARE FAIRLY WEAK AND CONFINED TO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES... TEXAS AND ALONG THE GULF COAST. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS IN ALASKA ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT IN THE NORTH... WITH ABOVE MEDIAN AMOUNTS EXPECTED IN SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE STATE EXCEPT FOR THE PANHANDLE. TODAYS OFFICIAL 500-HPA BLEND CONSISTS OF 20 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...40 PERCENT OF TODAY'S GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...20 PERCENT OF TODAY'S CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...AND 20 PERCENT OF TODAY'S EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 7. MODEL(S) OF THE DAY: GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD IS ABOUT AVERAGE... 3 ON A SCALE OF 1 TO 5. THE 6-10 DAY TEMPERATURE PROG IS BASED ON THE KLEIN SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLENDED HEIGHT FIELD... THE CPC AUTO TEMPERATURE FORECAST... AND THE CDC TEMPERATURE FORECAST. THE 6-10 DAY PRECIPITATION PROG IS BASED ON THE NEURAL NET AND ANALOG SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLENDED HEIGHT FIELD... THE CPC AUTO PRECIPITATION FORECAST... CPC CALIBRATED PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS FROM VARIOUS GFS MODEL FIELDS... AND THE CDC PRECIPITATION FORECAST. 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR FEB 17 - 23 2007: THE 8 TO 14 DAY MEAN UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION PREDICTED BY TODAYS MODELS IS QUITE SIMILAR TO THE PATTERN PREDICTED FOR THE 6 TO 10 DAY PERIOD AND IS SIMILAR TO PREDICTIONS MADE EARLIER IN THE WEEK. A BROAD RIDGE IS FORECAST OVER THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC OCEAN WITH A VERY BROAD TROUGH EXPECTED OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN NORTH AMERICA. THE TREND IN MODEL SOLUTIONS TOWARDS LESSER AMPLITUDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION THAT BEGAN YESTERDAY CONTINUES WITH TODAYS RUNS. BECAUSE THE CANADIAN ENSEMBLE IS SIMILAR TO THE HIGH RESOLUTION ECMWF SOLUTION IN THE 6 TO 10 DAY PERIOD... IT HAS BEEN WEIGHTED QUITE HEAVILY IN TODAYS 8 TO 14 DAY BLEND TO REPRESENT THE LIKELY PROGRESSION ECMWF MODEL... WHICH IS ONLY AVAILABLE THROUGH DAY 10. 500-HPA HEIGHTS ARE PREDICTED TO BE LOWER IN THIS PERIOD OVER MUCH OF WESTERN CANADA AND EASTERN ALASKA THAN IN THE 6 TO 10 DAY PERIOD... AND THIS SHOULD HELP TEMPERATURES RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS IN ALASKA... AND ELEVATE CHANCES OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN INTERIOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN ALASKA. THE BROAD TROUGH EXPECTED OVER MOST OF THE CONUS SHOULD KEEP 8 TO 14 DAY MEAN TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL IN THE CONUS EAST OF THE ROCKIES... AND KEEP THE STORM TRACK SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY. BOTH TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TOOLS ARE NOTABLY POOR IN AGREEMENT TODAY. IN VIEW OF THE SIMILARITY OF THE 500-HPA HEIGHTS FORECAST FOR THE 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY PERIODS... TOOLS WHICH SHOWED SIMILAR PATTERNS BETWEEN THE TWO PERIODS WERE EMPHASIZED. THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY HEIGHT PROG CONSISTS OF 50 PERCENT OF TODAY'S GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...AND 50 PERCENT OF TODAY'S CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11. FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD IS ABOUT AVERAGE... 3 ON A SCALE OF 1 TO 5. THE 8-14 DAY TEMPERATURE PROG IS BASED ON THE CDC TEMPERATURE FORECAST... AND THE EXPERIMENTAL NORTH AMERICAN ENSEMBLE FORECASTING SYSTEM (NAEFS) 2 METER TEMPERATURE PREDICTIONS. THE KLEIN... NEURAL NET... AND ANALOG SPECIFICATION WERE NOT USED TODAY BECAUSE THEY WERE INCONSISTENT WITH THE 6 TO 10 DAY PREDICTIONS IN SPITE OF THE SIMILAR UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN. THE 8-14 DAY PRECIPITATION PROG IS BASED ON THE NEURAL NET AND ANALOG SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLENDED HEIGHT FIELD... THE CPC AUTO PRECIPITATION FORECAST... CPC CALIBRATED PRECIPITATION PERCENTAGES FROM THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS... AND THE CDC PRECIPITATION FORECAST. TOOLS WERE IN QUITE POOR AGREEMENT TODAY. BECAUSE THE 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY 500-HPA FLOW PATTERN IS PREDICTED TO BE QUITE SIMILAR... TOOLS THAT SHOWED SIMILAR PATTERNS BETWEEN THE TWO PERIODS WERE EMPHASIZED. FORECASTER: D. UNGER NOTES: OPERATIONAL CHANGE: AS OF JULY 5 2005 SHADED MAPS HAVE REPLACED THE CONTOUR-ONLY MAPS ON THE CPC WEB SITE. THE CONTOURED MAPS ARE STILL AVAILABLE AT THEIR CURRENT FILE NAMES - SO DIRECT-LINKED USERS ARE NOT AFFECTED. AWIPS GRAPHICS ARE ALSO NOT AFFECTED BY THIS CHANGE. AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OTHERWISE - FORECASTS INCORPORATE FORECASTER INPUT. THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION. THE NARRATIVE DESCRIPTION OF THE FORECAST PATTERNS FOR TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION FOR BOTH THE 6-10 OR 8-14 DAY PERIODS HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. THE STATE TABLES FOR BOTH THE 6-10 AND 8-14 DAY PERIODS ARE NOW CONTAINED IN THIS MESSAGE...AVAILABLE AS PMDMRD ON AWIPS. THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1971-2000 BASE PERIOD MEANS FOR TEMPERATURE...PRECIPITATION...AND 500-HPA HEIGHTS AS REFERENCE IN THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS. THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON FEBRUARY 15. NEW NOTE EFFECTIVE MAR 16 2004: THE GLOSSARY FORMERLY FOUND AT THIS LOCATION WILL NO LONGER BE TRANSMITTED AS PART OF THIS MESSAGE. IF YOU WISH TO SEE THE DEFINITIONS OF TERMS USED IN THESE MESSAGES... PLEASE GO TO THE CPC WEB PAGE AT (USE LOWER CASE) HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV AND FOLLOW THE APPROPRIATE LINKS. ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3) FOR THE REGION FROM 20N to 70N LATITUDE AND 175E to 60W LONGITUDE INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 19610124 - 19950208 - 19680216 - 19610129 - 19850123 ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4) FOR THE REGION FROM 20N to 70N LATITUDE AND 175E to 60W LONGITUDE INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 19610123 - 19950208 - 19610128 - 19630222 - 19680217 6 to 10 day Outlook Table OUTLOOK FOR FEB 15 - 19, 2007 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON A B OREGON A B NRN CALIF N B SRN CALIF N B IDAHO N B NEVADA N B W MONTANA N B E MONTANA B B WYOMING B B UTAH N B ARIZONA N N COLORADO B N NEW MEXICO B A N DAKOTA B B S DAKOTA B B NEBRASKA B B KANSAS B N OKLAHOMA B N N TEXAS B A S TEXAS B A W TEXAS B A MINNESOTA B B IOWA B B MISSOURI B B ARKANSAS B N LOUISIANA B A WISCONSIN B B ILLINOIS B B MISSISSIPPI B A MICHIGAN B B INDIANA B B OHIO B B KENTUCKY B B TENNESSEE B N ALABAMA B N NEW YORK B B VERMONT B B NEW HAMP B B MAINE B B MASS B B CONN B B RHODE IS B B PENN B B NEW JERSEY B B W VIRGINIA B B MARYLAND B B DELAWARE B B VIRGINIA B B N CAROLINA B N S CAROLINA B N GEORGIA B A FL PNHDL B A FL PENIN N A AK N SLOPE A B AK ALEUTIAN A A AK WESTERN A A AK INT BSN A N AK S INT A A AK SO COAST A A AK PNHDL N A 8 to 14 day Outlook Table OUTLOOK FOR FEB 17 - 23, 2007 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON N N OREGON N B NRN CALIF N B SRN CALIF N B IDAHO N N NEVADA N B W MONTANA N N E MONTANA N N WYOMING N B UTAH N B ARIZONA N B COLORADO B B NEW MEXICO B B N DAKOTA B B S DAKOTA B B NEBRASKA B B KANSAS B N OKLAHOMA B N N TEXAS B A S TEXAS B A W TEXAS B N MINNESOTA B B IOWA B B MISSOURI B N ARKANSAS B A LOUISIANA B A WISCONSIN B B ILLINOIS B N MISSISSIPPI B A MICHIGAN B B INDIANA B B OHIO B B KENTUCKY B B TENNESSEE B N ALABAMA B N NEW YORK B B VERMONT B B NEW HAMP B B MAINE B B MASS B B CONN B B RHODE IS B B PENN B B NEW JERSEY B B W VIRGINIA B B MARYLAND B B DELAWARE B B VIRGINIA B B N CAROLINA B B S CAROLINA B B GEORGIA B N FL PNHDL B N FL PENIN N N AK N SLOPE N N AK ALEUTIAN N A AK WESTERN N A AK INT BSN B N AK S INT N A AK SO COAST N A AK PNHDL N A LEGEND TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN B - BELOW B - BELOW THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS PMDMRD. $$