PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSIONS FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 300 PM EST MON FEB 05 2007 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK VALID FOR FEB 11 - 15 2007 TODAYS MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE 6-10 DAY MEAN 500-MB FLOW PATTERN PREDICTED OVER NORTH AMERICA. THE MODELS PREDICT A RIDGE OVER ALASKA AND A TROUGH OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA. THIS IS QUITE SIMILAR TO THE CIRCULATION PATTERN CURRENTLY OBSERVED... ALTHOUGH THE AMPLITUDE IS PREDICTED TO MODERATE CONSIDERABLY SUGGESTING THAT TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO MODERATE. OF PARTICULAR IMPORTANCE WILL BE THE STATUS OF THE SOUTHERN JET STREAM THAT IS PREDICTED TO INFLUENCE WEATHER IN THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE U.S. FROM CALIFORNIA TO THE EAST COAST. MOST MODEL RUNS SUGGEST THAT THE SOUTHERN JET OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WILL BECOME MORE ACTIVE THAN HAS BEEN SEEN IN RECENT WEEKS... ALTHOUGH STILL NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG. THE STORM TRACK OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.S. IS EXPECTED TO BE ALONG THE GULF COAST... WITH MANY TOOLS SUGGESTING THE POSSIBILITY OF ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ALONG THE EAST COAST. TEMPERATURES OVER WESTERN ALASKA ARE EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THE 6 TO 10 DAY PERIOD... WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE PANHANDLE EXPECTED NEAR NORMAL. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT IN ALASKA... EXCEPT IN SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE. TODAYS OFFICIAL 500-HPA BLEND CONSISTS OF 40 PERCENT OF TODAY'S GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...30 PERCENT OF TODAY'S CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...AND 30 PERCENT OF TODAY'S EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 7. MODEL(S) OF THE DAY: GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD IS ABOVE AVERAGE... 4 ON A SCALE OF 1 TO 5 DUE TO MODEL CONTINUITY AND AGREEMENT AMONG THE ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS. THE 6-10 DAY TEMPERATURE PROG IS BASED ON THE KLEIN... NEURAL NET... AND ANALOG SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLENDED HEIGHT FIELD... THE CPC AUTO TEMPERATURE FORECAST... AND THE CDC TEMPERATURE FORECAST. THE 6-10 DAY PRECIPITATION PROG IS BASED ON THE NEURAL NET AND ANALOG SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLENDED HEIGHT FIELD... THE CPC AUTO PRECIPITATION FORECAST... CPC CALIBRATED PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS FROM VARIOUS GFS MODEL FIELDS... AND THE CDC PRECIPITATION FORECAST. 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR FEB 13 - 19 2007: TODAYS 8 TO 14 DAY MEAN FLOW PATTERN IS QUITE SIMILAR TO THE PATTERN PREDICTED FOR THE 6 TO 10 DAY PERIOD. THE 8-14 DAY MEAN 500-HPA HEIGHTS OVER THE CONUS ARE PREDICTED TO BE SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN IN THE 6 TO 10 DAY PERIOD... SO TEMPERATURES ANOMALIES IN PARTS OF THE WESTERN U.S. ARE EXPECTED TO BE SLIGHTLY LOWER IN WEEK-TWO THAN THE 6 TO 10 DAY MEAN. THE TROUGH AXIS PROGRESSES SLIGHTLY BETWEEN THE TWO PERIODS OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA... LESSENING THE LIKELIHOOD OF SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IN THE LATER PART OF THE 8 TO 14 DAY PERIOD. ELSEWHERE... THE TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION ANOMALIES ARE EXPECTED TO BE QUITE SIMILAR BETWEEN THE 6-10 AND 8-14 DAY PERIODS. THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY HEIGHT PROG CONSISTS OF 70 PERCENT OF TODAY'S GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...AND 30 PERCENT OF TODAY'S CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11. FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD IS ABOVE AVERAGE... 4 ON A SCALE OF 1 TO 5... DUE TO GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG MODELS. THE 8-14 DAY TEMPERATURE PROG IS BASED ON THE KLEIN... AND ANALOG SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLENDED HEIGHT FIELD... THE CPC AUTO TEMPERATURE FORECAST... AND THE CDC TEMPERATURE FORECAST THE 8-14 DAY PRECIPITATION PROG IS BASED ON THE NEURAL NET AND ANALOG SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLENDED HEIGHT FIELD... THE CPC AUTO PRECIPITATION FORECAST... CPC CALIBRATED PRECIPITATION PERCENTAGES FROM THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS... AND THE CDC PRECIPITATION FORECAST. FORECASTER: D. UNGER NOTES: OPERATIONAL CHANGE: AS OF JULY 5 2005 SHADED MAPS HAVE REPLACED THE CONTOUR-ONLY MAPS ON THE CPC WEB SITE. THE CONTOURED MAPS ARE STILL AVAILABLE AT THEIR CURRENT FILE NAMES - SO DIRECT-LINKED USERS ARE NOT AFFECTED. AWIPS GRAPHICS ARE ALSO NOT AFFECTED BY THIS CHANGE. AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OTHERWISE - FORECASTS INCORPORATE FORECASTER INPUT. THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION. THE NARRATIVE DESCRIPTION OF THE FORECAST PATTERNS FOR TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION FOR BOTH THE 6-10 OR 8-14 DAY PERIODS HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. THE STATE TABLES FOR BOTH THE 6-10 AND 8-14 DAY PERIODS ARE NOW CONTAINED IN THIS MESSAGE...AVAILABLE AS PMDMRD ON AWIPS. THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1971-2000 BASE PERIOD MEANS FOR TEMPERATURE...PRECIPITATION...AND 500-HPA HEIGHTS AS REFERENCE IN THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS. THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON FEBRUARY 15. NEW NOTE EFFECTIVE MAR 16 2004: THE GLOSSARY FORMERLY FOUND AT THIS LOCATION WILL NO LONGER BE TRANSMITTED AS PART OF THIS MESSAGE. IF YOU WISH TO SEE THE DEFINITIONS OF TERMS USED IN THESE MESSAGES... PLEASE GO TO THE CPC WEB PAGE AT (USE LOWER CASE) HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV AND FOLLOW THE APPROPRIATE LINKS. ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3) FOR THE REGION FROM 20N to 70N LATITUDE AND 175E to 60W LONGITUDE INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 19630125 - 19760202 - 19810205 - 19940201 - 19770126 ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4) FOR THE REGION FROM 20N to 70N LATITUDE AND 175E to 60W LONGITUDE INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 19760202 - 19630125 - 19610121 - 19920115 - 19770126 6 to 10 day Outlook Table OUTLOOK FOR FEB 11 - 15, 2007 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON N B OREGON N N NRN CALIF A N SRN CALIF A A IDAHO N N NEVADA A N W MONTANA B N E MONTANA B N WYOMING B N UTAH A N ARIZONA A A COLORADO N A NEW MEXICO N A N DAKOTA B B S DAKOTA B B NEBRASKA B N KANSAS B A OKLAHOMA B A N TEXAS B A S TEXAS B A W TEXAS B A MINNESOTA B B IOWA B B MISSOURI B N ARKANSAS B A LOUISIANA B A WISCONSIN B B ILLINOIS B B MISSISSIPPI B A MICHIGAN B B INDIANA B N OHIO B N KENTUCKY B A TENNESSEE B A ALABAMA B A NEW YORK B N VERMONT B N NEW HAMP B A MAINE B N MASS B A CONN B A RHODE IS B A PENN B A NEW JERSEY B A W VIRGINIA B A MARYLAND B A DELAWARE B A VIRGINIA B A N CAROLINA B A S CAROLINA B A GEORGIA B A FL PNHDL B A FL PENIN B N AK N SLOPE A B AK ALEUTIAN A A AK WESTERN A N AK INT BSN A B AK S INT A N AK SO COAST A A AK PNHDL N B 8 to 14 day Outlook Table OUTLOOK FOR FEB 13 - 19, 2007 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON N B OREGON N B NRN CALIF N N SRN CALIF N N IDAHO N B NEVADA N N W MONTANA B N E MONTANA B N WYOMING B N UTAH N N ARIZONA N N COLORADO B A NEW MEXICO N A N DAKOTA B B S DAKOTA B B NEBRASKA B N KANSAS B A OKLAHOMA B A N TEXAS B A S TEXAS N A W TEXAS N A MINNESOTA B B IOWA B B MISSOURI B N ARKANSAS B A LOUISIANA B A WISCONSIN B B ILLINOIS B N MISSISSIPPI B A MICHIGAN B B INDIANA B N OHIO B N KENTUCKY B A TENNESSEE B A ALABAMA B A NEW YORK B N VERMONT B N NEW HAMP B N MAINE B N MASS B N CONN B A RHODE IS B A PENN B N NEW JERSEY B A W VIRGINIA B A MARYLAND B A DELAWARE B A VIRGINIA B A N CAROLINA B A S CAROLINA B A GEORGIA B A FL PNHDL B A FL PENIN N N AK N SLOPE A B AK ALEUTIAN A A AK WESTERN A N AK INT BSN A B AK S INT A N AK SO COAST A B AK PNHDL N B LEGEND TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN B - BELOW B - BELOW THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS PMDMRD. $$