PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSIONS FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 300 PM EST THU FEB 01 2007 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK VALID FOR FEB 07 - 11 2007 TODAYS ENSEMBLE MEAN AND OPERATIONAL MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE PREDICTED 500-MB FLOW PATTERN ACROSS NORTH AMERICA DURING THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD... THOUGH THERE ARE SOME VARIATIONS ON THE COMMON CONSENSUS FEATURES. IN GENERAL... A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED LONGWAVE PATTERN IS FORECAST... WITH A STRONG RIDGE OVER ALASKA AND THE ADJACENT ARCTIC OCEAN AND A DEEP MEAN TROUGH OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA AND THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS CONFIGURATION WOULD RESULT IN THE DELIVERY OF VERY COLD ARCTIC AIR INTO THE LOWER 48 STATES. OF THE VARIOUS ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS ... THE EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN PREDICTS THE STRONGEST ANOMALOUS TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. THE PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGE CONTINUES TO BE THE ANTICIPATED BREAKDOWN OF THE U.S. WEST COAST RIDGE AND THE INTRODUCTION OF WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION ACROSS THAT REGION. FEBRUARY IS TYPICALLY THE TIME WHEN CALIFORNIA BEGINS TO EXPERIENCE A PROMINENT INCREASE IN PACIFIC STORM ACTIVITY DURING EL NINO WINTERS. THOUGH THERE ARE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN MODELS AS TO HOW MUCH RIDGING LINGERS ACROSS THE WEST COAST... IT LOOKS AS THOUGH THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE WEST COAST WILL INITIALLY RECEIVE HEAVY PRECIPITATION. WITH THE PACIFIC JET STREAM PREDICTED TO SINK SOUTHWARD ALONG THE WEST COAST ESPECIALLY DURING WEEK 2... MORE PRECIPITATION SHOULD MOVE INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. MOST MODEL RUNS SUGGEST THAT THE REMNANT OF THE U.S. WEST COAST RIDGE MIGRATES EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS ... CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THE STRONG ARCTIC HIGHS THAT PUSH SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH AND GULF OF MEXICO WILL PROVIDE EXTENDED PERIODS OF DRY OFFSHORE FLOW. THEREFORE THE POTENTIAL FOR GENERATING GULF COAST AND EAST COAST CYCLONES WILL BE DRASTICALLY REDUCED. MOST ENSEMBLE MEANS ARE ANTICIPATING ABOVE AVERAGE 500-HPA HEIGHTS OVER THE ARCTIC BASIN AND BELOW AVERAGE HEIGHTS OVER THE MIDDLE LATITUDES ... CONSISTENT WITH A NEGATIVELY PHASED ARCTIC OSCILLATION. TODAYS OFFICIAL 500-HPA BLEND CONSISTS OF 20 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...20 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...40 PERCENT OF TODAY'S GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...AND 20 PERCENT OF TODAY'S EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 7. MODEL(S) OF THE DAY: GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD IS ABOVE AVERAGE... 4 ON A SCALE OF 1 TO 5 DUE TO REASONABLE MODEL CONTINUITY AND AGREEMENT AMONG THE ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS. THE 6-10 DAY TEMPERATURE PROG IS BASED ON THE KLEIN... NEURAL NET... AND ANALOG SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLENDED HEIGHT FIELD... THE CPC AUTO TEMPERATURE FORECAST... AND THE CDC TEMPERATURE FORECAST... AS WELL AS A SUBJECTIVE INTERPRETATION OF THE DAILY 12Z GFS THICKNESS MAPS AND THE IMPLIED ADVECTIONS OVER TIME. THE 6-10 DAY PRECIPITATION PROG IS BASED ON THE NEURAL NET AND ANALOG SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLENDED HEIGHT FIELD... THE CPC AUTO PRECIPITATION FORECAST... CPC CALIBRATED PRECIPITATION PERCENTAGES FROM THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS... AND THE CDC PRECIPITATION FORECAST. 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR FEB 09 - 15 2007: TODAYS WEEK 2 MODEL RUNS REMOVE THE LAST REMAINING VESTIGES OF THE WEST COAST RIDGE AND INDICATE INCREASINGLY DOMINANT ZONAL FLOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE CONUS. THERE WAS CONSIDERABLE DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN THE TOOLS REGARDING THE PREDICTED SURFACE TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION PATTERNS FOR WEEK 2. SOME APPEARED TO HAVE TOO MUCH COLD OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN CONUS ... WHILE OTHERS SEEMED TOO WET OVER THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHCENTRAL STATES. THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR THE PACIFIC NW AND NORTHERN ROCKIES IS PARTICULARLY CHALLENGING. SOME TOOLS SUGGEST THAT ZONAL FLOW WILL PREVAIL... WHILE OTHERS ARE FORECASTING AN ARCTIC AIRMASS TO DROP SOUTH OUT OF WESTERN CANADA INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AREA AND HENCE CONTRIBUTE TO UPSLOPE PRECIPITATION ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE ROCKIES. THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY HEIGHT PROG CONSISTS OF 25 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...25 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...AND 50 PERCENT OF TODAY'S GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11. FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD IS NEAR AVERAGE... 3 ON A SCALE OF 1 TO 5 DUE TO GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODEL HEIGHT SOLUTIONS... THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS THOUGHT TO BE BELOW AVERAGE FOR THE SURFACE TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION FIELDS IN THE NEWLY ESTABLISHED ZONAL FLOW PATTERN. THE 8-14 DAY TEMPERATURE PROG IS BASED ON THE KLEIN... NEURAL NET... AND ANALOG SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLENDED HEIGHT FIELD... THE CPC AUTO TEMPERATURE FORECAST... AND THE CDC TEMPERATURE FORECAST... AS WELL AS A SUBJECTIVE INTERPRETATION OF THE DAILY 12Z GFS THICKNESS MAPS. THE 8-14 DAY PRECIPITATION PROG IS BASED ON THE NEURAL NET AND ANALOG SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLENDED HEIGHT FIELD... THE CPC AUTO PRECIPITATION FORECAST... CPC CALIBRATED PRECIPITATION PERCENTAGES FROM THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS... AND THE CDC PRECIPITATION FORECAST. IT IS ALSO BASED ON A SUBJECTIVE INTERPRETATION OF THE MEAN STORM TRACKS INDICATED BY THE OPERATIONAL 12Z GFS PROG. FORECASTER: ARTUSA NOTES: OPERATIONAL CHANGE: AS OF JULY 5 2005 SHADED MAPS HAVE REPLACED THE CONTOUR-ONLY MAPS ON THE CPC WEB SITE. THE CONTOURED MAPS ARE STILL AVAILABLE AT THEIR CURRENT FILE NAMES - SO DIRECT-LINKED USERS ARE NOT AFFECTED. AWIPS GRAPHICS ARE ALSO NOT AFFECTED BY THIS CHANGE. AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OTHERWISE - FORECASTS INCORPORATE FORECASTER INPUT. THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION. THE NARRATIVE DESCRIPTION OF THE FORECAST PATTERNS FOR TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION FOR BOTH THE 6-10 OR 8-14 DAY PERIODS HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. THE STATE TABLES FOR BOTH THE 6-10 AND 8-14 DAY PERIODS ARE NOW CONTAINED IN THIS MESSAGE...AVAILABLE AS PMDMRD ON AWIPS. THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1971-2000 BASE PERIOD MEANS FOR TEMPERATURE...PRECIPITATION...AND 500-HPA HEIGHTS AS REFERENCE IN THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS. THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON FEBRUARY 15. NEW NOTE EFFECTIVE MAR 16 2004: THE GLOSSARY FORMERLY FOUND AT THIS LOCATION WILL NO LONGER BE TRANSMITTED AS PART OF THIS MESSAGE. IF YOU WISH TO SEE THE DEFINITIONS OF TERMS USED IN THESE MESSAGES... PLEASE GO TO THE CPC WEB PAGE AT (USE LOWER CASE) HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV AND FOLLOW THE APPROPRIATE LINKS. ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3) FOR THE REGION FROM 20N to 70N LATITUDE AND 175E to 60W LONGITUDE INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 19770125 - 19610120 - 19810201 - 19950207 - 19680213 ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4) FOR THE REGION FROM 20N to 70N LATITUDE AND 175E to 60W LONGITUDE INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 19950207 - 19850111 - 19770125 - 19770202 - 19680212 6 to 10 day Outlook Table OUTLOOK FOR FEB 07 - 11, 2007 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON N A OREGON A A NRN CALIF A A SRN CALIF A N IDAHO N N NEVADA A N W MONTANA N A E MONTANA B A WYOMING N A UTAH N B ARIZONA A B COLORADO N B NEW MEXICO A B N DAKOTA B B S DAKOTA B N NEBRASKA B A KANSAS B A OKLAHOMA B A N TEXAS B A S TEXAS N N W TEXAS N B MINNESOTA B B IOWA B B MISSOURI B A ARKANSAS B A LOUISIANA B N WISCONSIN B B ILLINOIS B N MISSISSIPPI B N MICHIGAN B N INDIANA B N OHIO B N KENTUCKY B N TENNESSEE B N ALABAMA B B NEW YORK B N VERMONT B B NEW HAMP B B MAINE B B MASS B B CONN B B RHODE IS B B PENN B B NEW JERSEY B B W VIRGINIA B N MARYLAND B N DELAWARE B N VIRGINIA B N N CAROLINA B N S CAROLINA B B GEORGIA B B FL PNHDL B B FL PENIN B B AK N SLOPE A B AK ALEUTIAN A N AK WESTERN A B AK INT BSN A B AK S INT A B AK SO COAST A B AK PNHDL N B 8 to 14 day Outlook Table OUTLOOK FOR FEB 09 - 15, 2007 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON N N OREGON N N NRN CALIF N A SRN CALIF A A IDAHO N A NEVADA A A W MONTANA N A E MONTANA B N WYOMING N N UTAH A N ARIZONA A N COLORADO A N NEW MEXICO A N N DAKOTA B N S DAKOTA B N NEBRASKA N N KANSAS N A OKLAHOMA N A N TEXAS A A S TEXAS A N W TEXAS A N MINNESOTA B B IOWA B N MISSOURI N A ARKANSAS N A LOUISIANA A A WISCONSIN B B ILLINOIS B N MISSISSIPPI N A MICHIGAN B B INDIANA B N OHIO B N KENTUCKY N N TENNESSEE N A ALABAMA N A NEW YORK B B VERMONT B B NEW HAMP B B MAINE B B MASS B B CONN B B RHODE IS B B PENN B B NEW JERSEY B B W VIRGINIA B N MARYLAND B N DELAWARE B N VIRGINIA N N N CAROLINA N N S CAROLINA N N GEORGIA N N FL PNHDL A N FL PENIN A N AK N SLOPE A B AK ALEUTIAN A N AK WESTERN A B AK INT BSN A B AK S INT A B AK SO COAST N B AK PNHDL N B LEGEND TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN B - BELOW B - BELOW THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS PMDMRD. $$