PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSIONS FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 300 PM EST FRI JAN 19 2007 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK VALID FOR JAN 25 - 29 2007 TODAYS GFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT ON THE EXPECTED 500-HPA FLOW PATTERN ACROSS NORTH AMERICA DURING THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD. AFTER POOR MODEL CONTINUITY EARLY IN THE WEEK... ALL ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS HAVE FINALLY LOCKED INTO A TRANSISTION IN THE LONGWAVE PATTERN. THE GFS ENSEMBLE FORECASTS THE NORTH ATLANTIC OSCILLATION (NAO) AND ARCTIC OSCILLATION (AO) INDICES TO BECOME RAPIDLY NEGATIVE DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THESE NEGATIVE INDICES STRONGLY FAVOR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE EAST AND RAISE THE POTENTIAL FOR A WINTER STORM IN THE NORTHEAST. THE OFFICIAL BLENDED HEIGHT FORECAST INDICATES A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED STABLE PATTERN FEATURING A STRONG RIDGE ALONG THE WEST COAST AND A DEEP TROUGH ALONG THE EAST COAST. THE OFFICIAL BLEND CHART DEPICTS THREE LARGE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALY CENTERS OF +150 METERS OVER THE CANADIAN ROCKIES... -180 METERS ACROSS THE CANADIAN MARITIMES... AND +150 METERS OVER THE BRITISH ISLES. DURING THE PAST WEEK... A GRADUAL PROGRESSION OF THESE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALY CENTERS HAS BEEN NOTED. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY FOR THE EASTERN CONUS WHILE WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW SHOULD LEAD TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. FRESH SNOW COVER COULD RESULT IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS ACROSS NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS. ABOVE NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS FAVOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE WEST BUT A CANADIAN HIGH CENTERED OVER AN EXTENSIVE SNOWPACK COULD MODIFY TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN. ELSEWHERE... MOIST PACIFIC FLOW FAVORS ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE ALASKAN PANHANDLE WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF ALASKA. THE CPC AUTO AND CDC PRECIPITATION FORECASTS INDICATE BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR THE ENTIRE CONUS EXCLUDING SOUTH TEXAS. NORTHWEST FLOW AND DRY CONTINENTAL AIR SUPPORTS BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE CONUS. HOWEVER... THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN ACROSS EASTERN NORTH AMERICA AND THE NORTH ATLANTIC MAY LEAD TO STRONG SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS NEAR NEW ENGLAND. THEREFORE... NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHEAST. IF THE TROUGH AXIS ALONG THE EAST COAST SHIFTS WEST FROM ITS EXPECTED POSITION... THEN THE REMAINDER OF THE EAST COAST COULD BE AFFECTED BY A STRONG COASTAL STORM. MEANWHILE... SEVERAL INTENSE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS TRACKING FROM CANADA WILL LIKELY GENERATE OCCASIONAL SNOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. A SLIGHT EASTWARD PROGRSSION OF THE WEST COAST RIDGE MAY BRIEFLY ALLOW ONSHORE FLOW TO DEVELOP FOR COASTAL WASHINGTON WHERE NEAR NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS ANTICIPATED. ELSEWHERE... MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION TO THE ALASKAN PANHANDLE. TODAYS OFFICIAL 500-HPA BLEND CONSISTS OF 15 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...15 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...40 PERCENT OF TODAY'S GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...AND 30 PERCENT OF TODAY'S EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 7. MODEL(S) OF THE DAY: GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD IS ABOVE AVERAGE... 4 ON A SCALE OF 1 TO 5 DUE TO GOOD MODEL CONTINUITY AND EXCELLENT AGREEMENT AMONG THE ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS. THE 6-10 DAY TEMPERATURE PROG IS BASED ON THE KLEIN... NEURAL NET... AND ANALOG SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLENDED HEIGHT FIELD... KLEIN AND ANALOG SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE 0Z AND 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN AND 12Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN... THE CPC AUTO TEMPERATURE FORECAST... AND THE CDC TEMPERATURE FORECAST. THE 6-10 DAY PRECIPITATION PROG IS BASED ON THE NEURAL NET AND ANALOG SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLENDED HEIGHT FIELD... THE CPC AUTO PRECIPITATION FORECAST... CPC CALIBRATED PRECIPITATION PERCENTAGES FROM THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS... AND THE CDC PRECIPITATION FORECAST. 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JAN 27 - FEB 02, 2007: THE COLD PATTERN FOR THE SOUTH AND EAST WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO WEEK 2. IF THE FORECASTED HEIGHT PATTERN VERIFIES... THEN RECORD SETTING COLD IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST INCLUDING FLORIDA. THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN MAINTAINING A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED TROUGH ACROSS EASTERN NORTH AMERICA WHILE PERSISTING A SHARP RIDGE ALONG THE WEST COAST. DUE TO THE STABLE LONGWAVE PATTERN... TODAYS OFFICIAL BLENDED HEIGHT CHART IS NEARLY IDENTICAL TO YESTERDAYS... ALTHOUGH THE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALY CENTERS ARE GREATER IN MAGNITUDE. IN ADDITION... THE WEEK 2 OFFICIAL BLENDED HEIGHT CHART IS QUITE SIMILAR TO THE EXPECTED 6-10 DAY HEIGHT FIELD. THEREFORE... LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED IN THE TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION FORECAST FROM THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD. THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS INDICATE WELL BELOW NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS ALONG THE EAST COAST WITH WELL ABOVE NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS ACROSS WESTERN NORTH AMERICA. THE FULL LATITUDE TROUGH EXTENDS AS FAR SOUTH AS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. THE AMPLIFICATION OF THE TROUGH WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE EAST. TEMPERATURE TOOLS SUGGEST THAT BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATUES WILL BE MORE EXPANSIVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS COMPARED TO DAYS 6-10 WHILE NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE ACROSS THE WEST. ELSEWHERE... ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE ALASKAN PANHANDLE WITH NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE REMAINDER OF ALASKA. PRECIPITATION TOOLS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLENDED HEIGHT ALONG WITH THE CPC AUTO AND CDC PRECIPITATION FORECASTS INDICATE THAT A DRY PATTERN WILL LIKELY CONTINUE FOR THE CONUS. ALTHOUGH BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FOREAST FOR MUCH OF THE EAST... COASTAL CYCLOGENESIS WILL HAVE TO BE CLOSELY MONITORED INTO THE BEGINNING OF FEBRUARY. THE HIGHEST LIKELIHOOD OF ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE CONUS EXISTS ALONG THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY. MEANWHILE... A TROUGH SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS WILL STEER PACIFIC STORMS INTO THE ALASKAN PANHANDLE WHERE ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY. THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY HEIGHT PROG CONSISTS OF 25 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...25 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...AND 50 PERCENT OF TODAY'S GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11. FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD IS ABOVE AVERAGE... 4 ON A SCALE OF 1 TO 5 DUE TO GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS. THE 8-14 DAY TEMPERATURE PROG IS BASED ON THE KLEIN... NEURAL NET... AND ANALOG SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLENDED HEIGHT FIELD... THE CPC AUTO FORECAST... AND THE CDC TEMPERATURE FORECAST. THE 8-14 DAY PRECIPITATION PROG IS BASED ON THE NEURAL NET AND ANALOG SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLENDED HEIGHT FIELD... CPC CALIBRATED PRECIPITATION PERCENTAGES FROM THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS... THE CPC AUTO FORECAST... AND THE CDC PRECIPITATION FORECAST. FORECASTER: PUGH NOTES: OPERATIONAL CHANGE: AS OF JULY 5 2005 SHADED MAPS HAVE REPLACED THE CONTOUR-ONLY MAPS ON THE CPC WEB SITE. THE CONTOURED MAPS ARE STILL AVAILABLE AT THEIR CURRENT FILE NAMES - SO DIRECT-LINKED USERS ARE NOT AFFECTED. AWIPS GRAPHICS ARE ALSO NOT AFFECTED BY THIS CHANGE. AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OTHERWISE - FORECASTS INCORPORATE FORECASTER INPUT. THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION. THE NARRATIVE DESCRIPTION OF THE FORECAST PATTERNS FOR TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION FOR BOTH THE 6-10 OR 8-14 DAY PERIODS HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. THE STATE TABLES FOR BOTH THE 6-10 AND 8-14 DAY PERIODS ARE NOW CONTAINED IN THIS MESSAGE...AVAILABLE AS PMDMRD ON AWIPS. THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1971-2000 BASE PERIOD MEANS FOR TEMPERATURE...PRECIPITATION...AND 500-HPA HEIGHTS AS REFERENCE IN THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS. THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON FEBRUARY 15. NEW NOTE EFFECTIVE MAR 16 2004: THE GLOSSARY FORMERLY FOUND AT THIS LOCATION WILL NO LONGER BE TRANSMITTED AS PART OF THIS MESSAGE. IF YOU WISH TO SEE THE DEFINITIONS OF TERMS USED IN THESE MESSAGES... PLEASE GO TO THE CPC WEB PAGE AT (USE LOWER CASE) HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV AND FOLLOW THE APPROPRIATE LINKS. ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3) FOR THE REGION FROM 20N to 70N LATITUDE AND 175E to 60W LONGITUDE INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 19900119 - 19590131 - 19870117 - 19890109 - 19740124 ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4) FOR THE REGION FROM 20N to 70N LATITUDE AND 175E to 60W LONGITUDE INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 19900118 - 19590131 - 19870117 - 19890109 - 19740124 6 to 10 day Outlook Table OUTLOOK FOR JAN 25 - 29, 2007 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON A N OREGON N B NRN CALIF A B SRN CALIF A B IDAHO N B NEVADA A B W MONTANA A B E MONTANA A B WYOMING A B UTAH N B ARIZONA A B COLORADO A B NEW MEXICO B B N DAKOTA A B S DAKOTA A B NEBRASKA A B KANSAS N B OKLAHOMA N B N TEXAS B B S TEXAS B N W TEXAS B B MINNESOTA N B IOWA N B MISSOURI B B ARKANSAS B B LOUISIANA B B WISCONSIN B B ILLINOIS B B MISSISSIPPI B B MICHIGAN B N INDIANA B B OHIO B B KENTUCKY B B TENNESSEE B B ALABAMA B B NEW YORK B N VERMONT B A NEW HAMP B A MAINE B A MASS B A CONN B A RHODE IS B A PENN B N NEW JERSEY B N W VIRGINIA B B MARYLAND B B DELAWARE B B VIRGINIA B B N CAROLINA B B S CAROLINA B B GEORGIA B B FL PNHDL B B FL PENIN B N AK N SLOPE B N AK ALEUTIAN B N AK WESTERN B B AK INT BSN B N AK S INT B N AK SO COAST B N AK PNHDL A A 8 to 14 day Outlook Table OUTLOOK FOR JAN 27 - FEB 02, 2007 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON N B OREGON N B NRN CALIF A B SRN CALIF A B IDAHO N B NEVADA N B W MONTANA N B E MONTANA A N WYOMING N B UTAH N B ARIZONA N B COLORADO N B NEW MEXICO B B N DAKOTA N N S DAKOTA N N NEBRASKA N B KANSAS B B OKLAHOMA B B N TEXAS B B S TEXAS B A W TEXAS B B MINNESOTA B N IOWA B B MISSOURI B B ARKANSAS B B LOUISIANA B B WISCONSIN B N ILLINOIS B B MISSISSIPPI B B MICHIGAN B N INDIANA B B OHIO B B KENTUCKY B B TENNESSEE B B ALABAMA B B NEW YORK B N VERMONT B N NEW HAMP B N MAINE B N MASS B N CONN B N RHODE IS B N PENN B N NEW JERSEY B N W VIRGINIA B B MARYLAND B B DELAWARE B B VIRGINIA B B N CAROLINA B B S CAROLINA B B GEORGIA B B FL PNHDL B B FL PENIN B B AK N SLOPE N N AK ALEUTIAN B N AK WESTERN N N AK INT BSN B N AK S INT B N AK SO COAST B N AK PNHDL A A LEGEND TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN B - BELOW B - BELOW THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS PMDMRD. $$