PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSIONS FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 300 PM EST THU JAN 11 2007 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK VALID FOR JAN 17 - 21 2007 TODAYS AVAILABLE ENSEMBLE MEAN AND OPERATIONAL MODELS ARE IN FAIR TO GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE EXPECTED 500-HPA HEIGHT PATTERN OVER NORTH AMERICA DURING THE 6-10 DAY FORECAST PERIOD. MOST AVAILABLE MODELS INDICATE CONTINUED EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE 500-HPA FLOW PATTERN WITH TODAYS 6-10 DAY PERIOD FORECAST APPEARING SIMILAR TO YESTERDAYS 8-14 DAY PERIOD FORECAST. THE STRONG RIDGE IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC HAS BECOME MORE ZONAL AND MOVED SOUTHWARD SUCH THAT IT IS NOW CENTERED DUE WEST OF THE NORTHWEST CONUS. THE TROUGH OVER THE CONUS HAS MOVED OVER THE ATLANTIC COASTAL STATES. YESTERDAYS 18Z GFS AND TODAYS 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEANS SHOW A WEAK NEGATIVE ANOMALY CENTERED OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES... WHILE TODAYS 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN AND 0Z AND 6Z GFS OPERATIONAL MODELS HAVE NEAR ZERO 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. THE OFFICIAL BLEND WEIGHTS THE GFS OPERATIONAL MODEL SOLUTIONS RELATIVELY HIGH TODAY SUCH THAT THE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES ARE CLOSE TO ZERO FOR MUCH OF THE CONUS AS THE FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL. YESTERDAYS 12Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN AGAIN SHOWS LITTLE PROGRESSION FROM THE PREVIOUS DAY 12Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN... WHILE YESTERDAYS 12Z AND TODAYS 0Z ECMWF OPERATIONAL MODELS INDICATE PROGRESSION SIMILAR TO THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEANS. THE CHANGING FLOW PATTERN WILL BRING MORE MODERATE AIR TO NORTHERN AREAS OF THE CONUS WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION... AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR PARTS OF THE WEST COAST AND THE NORTHEAST STATES. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE NORMAL EAST OF THE ROCKIES FROM THE HIGH PLAINS INTO TEXAS... THE GULF COAST... AND THE ATLANTIC COAST. BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST WEST OF THE ROCKIES AND IN THE MIDWEST. NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES ARE FORECAST TO COVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF ALASKA... SUCH THAT NEAR NORMAL TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST FOR WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE AND THE ALEUTIANS... WHILE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION CONTINUE FOR EASTERN ALASKA AND THE PANHANDLE. TODAYS OFFICIAL 500-HPA BLEND CONSISTS OF 10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 0Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 8...20 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 6Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 8...5 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL ECMWF CENTERED ON DAY 7...10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...40 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...5 PERCENT OF YESTERDAY'S 18Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 7...AND 10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 7. MODEL(S) OF THE DAY: 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD IS AVERAGE... 3 ON A SCALE OF 1 TO 5 DUE TO RELATIVELY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT AND SOME UNCERTAINTY DUE TO A CHANGING FLOW PATTERN. THE 6-10 DAY TEMPERATURE PROG IS BASED ON THE NEURAL NET AND ANALOG SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN AND THE OFFICIAL BLENDED HEIGHT FIELD... THE CPC AUTO FORECAST... THE EXPERIMENTAL NORTH AMERICAN ENSEMBLE FORECAST SYSTEM PROBABILITIES FROM THE 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE... AND THE CDC TEMPERATURE TOOL. THE 6-10 DAY PRECIPITATION PROG IS BASED ON THE ANALOG SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN AND THE OFFICIAL BLENDED HEIGHT FIELD... CALIBRATED PRECIPITATION FROM THE 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN... CPC CALBRATED PRECIPITATION PERCENTAGES FROM THE GFS SUPERENSEMBLE... AND THE CPC AUTO FORECAST. 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JAN 19 - 25 2007: THE WEEK-2 FORECAST 500-HPA FLOW PATTERN IS VERY SIMILAR TO TODAYS 6-10 DAY PERIOD WITH RESPECT TO THE PHASE... HOWEVER THERE ARE SOME DIFFERNCES IN THE AMPLITUDE OF THE ANOMALIES. YESTERDAYS 18Z GFS AND TODAYS 0Z AND 6Z GFS OPERATIONAL MODELS HAVE A WEAKER NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY OVER THE EASTERN CONUS THAN THEIR RESPECTIVE ENSEMBLE MEANS AND HAVE BEEN WEIGHTED RELATIVELY HIGH IN THE OFFICIAL BLENDED FORECAST. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST MAINTAINS THE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS WITH SLIGHTLY STRONGER NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES THAN THE 6-10 DAY FORECAST. THE TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION PATTERNS SHOW GOOD CONTINUITY WITH YESTERDAYS FORECAST AND ARE VERY SIMILAR TO THE 6-10 DAY FORECAST. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED EAST OF THE ROCKIES INTO TEXAS AND THE SOUTHEAST CONUS. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED IN THE PACIFIC STATES AND THE NORTHEAST QUARTER OF THE CONUS. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS. ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED IN THE SOUTHWEST... THE GULF COAST... AND THE SOUTHERN ATLANTIC COAST STATES... WHILE BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED WEST OF THE ROCKIES AND IN THE MIDWEST. THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY HEIGHT PROG CONSISTS OF 15 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 0Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 11...20 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 6Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 11...10 PERCENT OF YESTERDAY'S OPERATIONAL 18Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 10...10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...AND 45 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11. FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD IS ABOVE AVERAGE... 4 ON A SCALE OF 1 TO 5 DUE TO GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODEL SOLUTIONS AND GOOD CONTINUITY FOR THE WEEK-2 PERIOD. THE 8-14 DAY TEMPERATURE PROG IS BASED ON THE NEURAL NET AND ANALOG SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLENDED HEIGHT FIELD... THE CPC AUTO FORECAST... THE EXPERIMENTAL NORTH AMERICAN ENSEMBLE FORECAST SYSTEM PROBABILITIES FROM THE 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE... AND THE CDC TEMPERATURE TOOL. THE 8-14 DAY PRECIPITATION PROG IS BASED ON THE ANALOG SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN AND THE OFFICIAL BLENDED HEIGHT FIELD... CALIBRATED PRECIPITATION FROM THE 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN... CPC CALBRATED PRECIPITATION PERCENTAGES FROM THE GFS SUPERENSEMBLE... AND THE CPC AUTO FORECAST. FORECASTER: D COLLINS NOTES: OPERATIONAL CHANGE: AS OF JULY 5 2005 SHADED MAPS HAVE REPLACED THE CONTOUR-ONLY MAPS ON THE CPC WEB SITE. THE CONTOURED MAPS ARE STILL AVAILABLE AT THEIR CURRENT FILE NAMES - SO DIRECT-LINKED USERS ARE NOT AFFECTED. AWIPS GRAPHICS ARE ALSO NOT AFFECTED BY THIS CHANGE. AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OTHERWISE - FORECASTS INCORPORATE FORECASTER INPUT. THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION. THE NARRATIVE DESCRIPTION OF THE FORECAST PATTERNS FOR TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION FOR BOTH THE 6-10 OR 8-14 DAY PERIODS HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. THE STATE TABLES FOR BOTH THE 6-10 AND 8-14 DAY PERIODS ARE NOW CONTAINED IN THIS MESSAGE...AVAILABLE AS PMDMRD ON AWIPS. THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1971-2000 BASE PERIOD MEANS FOR TEMPERATURE...PRECIPITATION...AND 500-HPA HEIGHTS AS REFERENCE IN THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS. THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON JANUARY 18. NEW NOTE EFFECTIVE MAR 16 2004: THE GLOSSARY FORMERLY FOUND AT THIS LOCATION WILL NO LONGER BE TRANSMITTED AS PART OF THIS MESSAGE. IF YOU WISH TO SEE THE DEFINITIONS OF TERMS USED IN THESE MESSAGES... PLEASE GO TO THE CPC WEB PAGE AT (USE LOWER CASE) HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV AND FOLLOW THE APPROPRIATE LINKS. ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3) FOR THE REGION FROM 20N to 70N LATITUDE AND 175E to 60W LONGITUDE INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 19561231 - 19801231 - 19601231 - 19881231 - 19521231 ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4) FOR THE REGION FROM 20N to 70N LATITUDE AND 175E to 60W LONGITUDE INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 19561231 - 19801231 - 19601231 - 19881231 - 19521231 6 to 10 day Outlook Table OUTLOOK FOR JAN 17 - 21, 2007 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON N N OREGON N B NRN CALIF N B SRN CALIF N N IDAHO B N NEVADA B N W MONTANA N N E MONTANA A N WYOMING N N UTAH B N ARIZONA N N COLORADO B A NEW MEXICO B A N DAKOTA A N S DAKOTA A N NEBRASKA N A KANSAS B A OKLAHOMA B A N TEXAS B A S TEXAS B A W TEXAS B A MINNESOTA A B IOWA N N MISSOURI N N ARKANSAS B N LOUISIANA B A WISCONSIN A B ILLINOIS N B MISSISSIPPI B N MICHIGAN N B INDIANA N B OHIO N B KENTUCKY N N TENNESSEE B N ALABAMA B N NEW YORK N N VERMONT N N NEW HAMP N N MAINE N N MASS N N CONN N N RHODE IS N N PENN N N NEW JERSEY N N W VIRGINIA N N MARYLAND N N DELAWARE N N VIRGINIA B N N CAROLINA B N S CAROLINA B A GEORGIA B A FL PNHDL B A FL PENIN B A AK N SLOPE N N AK ALEUTIAN B N AK WESTERN N N AK INT BSN A A AK S INT A A AK SO COAST A A AK PNHDL A A 8 to 14 day Outlook Table OUTLOOK FOR JAN 19 - 25, 2007 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON N N OREGON N B NRN CALIF N B SRN CALIF N N IDAHO N N NEVADA B B W MONTANA N N E MONTANA A N WYOMING B N UTAH B N ARIZONA N N COLORADO B N NEW MEXICO N A N DAKOTA A B S DAKOTA A N NEBRASKA N N KANSAS N N OKLAHOMA N A N TEXAS B A S TEXAS B A W TEXAS B A MINNESOTA A B IOWA N B MISSOURI N N ARKANSAS B N LOUISIANA B A WISCONSIN A B ILLINOIS N B MISSISSIPPI B N MICHIGAN A B INDIANA N B OHIO N N KENTUCKY N N TENNESSEE N N ALABAMA B N NEW YORK N N VERMONT N N NEW HAMP N N MAINE N N MASS N N CONN N N RHODE IS N N PENN N N NEW JERSEY N N W VIRGINIA N N MARYLAND N N DELAWARE N N VIRGINIA N N N CAROLINA N A S CAROLINA B A GEORGIA B A FL PNHDL B A FL PENIN B A AK N SLOPE N N AK ALEUTIAN B N AK WESTERN B N AK INT BSN A A AK S INT A A AK SO COAST A A AK PNHDL A A LEGEND TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN B - BELOW B - BELOW THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS PMDMRD. $$