PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSIONS FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 300 PM EST TUE JAN 09 2007 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK VALID FOR JAN 15 - 19 2007 TODAYS AVAILABLE ENSEMBLE MEAN AND OPERATIONAL MODELS ARE IN FAIR TO GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE EXPECTED 500-HPA HEIGHT FLOW PATTERN OVER NORTH AMERICA DURING THE 6-10 DAY FORECAST PERIOD. THE MODELS INDICATE SOME EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE 500-HPA FLOW PATTERN FROM YESTERDAY WITH A STRONG RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA... AND A TROUGH OVER MUCH OF THE CONUS EAST OF THE ROCKIES. THE 0Z AND 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEANS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE PHASE AND STRENGTH OF THE TROUGH WITH SLIGHTLY MORE EASTWARD PROGRESSION IN THE 6Z. YESTERDAYS 12Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN IS A LITTLE LESS PROGRESSIVE. THE 12Z ECMWF AND 6Z GFS OPERATIONAL MODELS BOTH INDICATE A FAIR AMOUNT OF PROGRESSION SIMILAR TO THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEANS... AND THEREFORE WERE WEIGHTED FAIRLY HIGH IN THE OFFICIAL BLENDED FORECAST. THIS PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO BRING BELOW NORMAL TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO MOST OF THE CONUS FROM THE WEST COAST TO THE SOUTHEAST STATES. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST FOR THE NORTHEAST CONUS AND EAST COAST... WITH A SMALL CHANCE OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST AND NEW ENGLAND. AHEAD OF THE CONUS TROUGH... PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE NORMAL FROM TEXAS INTO THE GULF STATES AND NORTH ALONG THE APPALACHIANS. BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST FOR THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE RIDGE OVER ALASKA WILL CONTINUE TO BRING ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION THERE. THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES OF ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION WILL BE NEAR THE GULF OF ALASKA. TODAYS OFFICIAL 500-HPA BLEND CONSISTS OF 10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 6Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 8...15 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL ECMWF CENTERED ON DAY 7...10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...40 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...AND 15 PERCENT OF TODAY'S EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 7. MODEL(S) OF THE DAY: 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD IS ABOVE AVERAGE... 4 ON A SCALE OF 1 TO 5 DUE TO RELATIVELY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT AND GOOD CONTINUITY. THE 6-10 DAY TEMPERATURE PROG IS BASED ON THE KLEIN AND ANALOG SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN... YESTERDAYS 12Z ECMWF OPERATIONAL MODEL... AND THE OFFICIAL BLENDED HEIGHT FIELD... THE CPC AUTO FORECAST... THE EXPERIMENTAL NORTH AMERICAN ENSEMBLE FORECAST SYSTEM PROBABILITIES FROM THE 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE... AND THE CDC TEMPERATURE TOOL. THE 6-10 DAY PRECIPITATION PROG IS BASED ON THE ANALOG SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN.. YESTERDAYS 12Z ECMWF OPERATIONAL MODEL... AND THE OFFICIAL BLENDED HEIGHT FIELD. CALIBRATED PRECIPITATION FROM THE 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN... AND THE CPC AUTO FORECAST. 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JAN 17 - 23 2007: THE WEEK-2 FORECAST FLOW PATTERN IS AGAIN SIMILAR TO THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD EXCEPT FOR A SLIGHT EASTWARD PROGRESSION AND WEAKENING OF THE TROUGH OVER THE CONUS. THE 0Z AND 6Z GFS OPERATIONAL MODELS ARE MORE AMPLIFIED BUT SLIGHTLY LESS PROGRESSIVE THAN THE GFS AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEANS AND THE OFFICIAL BLENDED FORECAST. THE GENERAL TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION PATTERNS SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO THE 6-10 DAY FORECAST... HOWEVER THERE IS A SIGNIFICANT REDUCTION OF THE PROBABILITIES OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE WESTERN CONUS. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND THE NORTHEAST QUARTER OF THE CONUS... WHILE THERE WILL BE AN INCREASED PROBABILITY OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE SOUTHEAST THAN IN THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD. THERE IS A GREATER CHANCE OF NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE PACIFIC COASTAL STATES IN WEEK-2. ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FOR THE GULF STATES AND THE SOUTHEAST... WHILE BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FOR THE PACIFIC COASTAL STATES. THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY HEIGHT PROG CONSISTS OF 10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 0Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 11...10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 6Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 11...10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...40 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...AND 30 PERCENT OF TODAY'S CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11. FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD IS AVERAGE... 3 ON A SCALE OF 1 TO 5 DUE TO FAIR TO GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS. THE 8-14 DAY TEMPERATURE PROG IS BASED ON THE KLEIN AND ANALOG SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLENDED HEIGHT FIELD... THE CPC AUTO FORECAST... THE EXPERIMENTAL NORTH AMERICAN ENSEMBLE FORECAST SYSTEM PROBABILITIES FROM THE 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE... AND THE CDC TEMPERATURE TOOL. THE 8-14 DAY PRECIPITATION PROG IS BASED ON THE ANALOG SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLENDED HEIGHT FIELD... CALIBRATED PRECIPITATION FROM THE 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN... THE CPC AUTO FORECAST... AND THE CDC PRECIPITATION TOOL. FORECASTER: D COLLINS NOTES: OPERATIONAL CHANGE: AS OF JULY 5 2005 SHADED MAPS HAVE REPLACED THE CONTOUR-ONLY MAPS ON THE CPC WEB SITE. THE CONTOURED MAPS ARE STILL AVAILABLE AT THEIR CURRENT FILE NAMES - SO DIRECT-LINKED USERS ARE NOT AFFECTED. AWIPS GRAPHICS ARE ALSO NOT AFFECTED BY THIS CHANGE. AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OTHERWISE - FORECASTS INCORPORATE FORECASTER INPUT. THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION. THE NARRATIVE DESCRIPTION OF THE FORECAST PATTERNS FOR TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION FOR BOTH THE 6-10 OR 8-14 DAY PERIODS HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. THE STATE TABLES FOR BOTH THE 6-10 AND 8-14 DAY PERIODS ARE NOW CONTAINED IN THIS MESSAGE...AVAILABLE AS PMDMRD ON AWIPS. THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1971-2000 BASE PERIOD MEANS FOR TEMPERATURE...PRECIPITATION...AND 500-HPA HEIGHTS AS REFERENCE IN THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS. THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON JANUARY 18. NEW NOTE EFFECTIVE MAR 16 2004: THE GLOSSARY FORMERLY FOUND AT THIS LOCATION WILL NO LONGER BE TRANSMITTED AS PART OF THIS MESSAGE. IF YOU WISH TO SEE THE DEFINITIONS OF TERMS USED IN THESE MESSAGES... PLEASE GO TO THE CPC WEB PAGE AT (USE LOWER CASE) HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV AND FOLLOW THE APPROPRIATE LINKS. 6 to 10 day Outlook Table OUTLOOK FOR JAN 15 - 19, 2007 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON B B OREGON B B NRN CALIF B B SRN CALIF B N IDAHO B B NEVADA B N W MONTANA B B E MONTANA B N WYOMING B N UTAH B N ARIZONA B N COLORADO B A NEW MEXICO B A N DAKOTA N N S DAKOTA B N NEBRASKA B N KANSAS B A OKLAHOMA B A N TEXAS B A S TEXAS B A W TEXAS B A MINNESOTA N N IOWA B N MISSOURI B A ARKANSAS B A LOUISIANA B A WISCONSIN B N ILLINOIS B N MISSISSIPPI B A MICHIGAN B N INDIANA N N OHIO N A KENTUCKY B A TENNESSEE B A ALABAMA B A NEW YORK A A VERMONT A A NEW HAMP A A MAINE N N MASS A A CONN A A RHODE IS A A PENN N A NEW JERSEY A A W VIRGINIA N A MARYLAND N A DELAWARE N A VIRGINIA N A N CAROLINA N A S CAROLINA N A GEORGIA B A FL PNHDL B N FL PENIN N N AK N SLOPE A N AK ALEUTIAN A A AK WESTERN A A AK INT BSN A A AK S INT A A AK SO COAST A A AK PNHDL A N 8 to 14 day Outlook Table OUTLOOK FOR JAN 17 - 23, 2007 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON N B OREGON B B NRN CALIF N B SRN CALIF B B IDAHO B N NEVADA B N W MONTANA N B E MONTANA N N WYOMING B N UTAH B N ARIZONA B N COLORADO B N NEW MEXICO B N N DAKOTA N N S DAKOTA N N NEBRASKA N N KANSAS B N OKLAHOMA B N N TEXAS B A S TEXAS B A W TEXAS B N MINNESOTA N N IOWA N N MISSOURI N N ARKANSAS N A LOUISIANA B A WISCONSIN N N ILLINOIS N N MISSISSIPPI B A MICHIGAN N N INDIANA N N OHIO N N KENTUCKY N A TENNESSEE B A ALABAMA B A NEW YORK N N VERMONT N N NEW HAMP N N MAINE N N MASS N N CONN N N RHODE IS N N PENN N N NEW JERSEY N N W VIRGINIA N A MARYLAND N N DELAWARE N N VIRGINIA B A N CAROLINA B A S CAROLINA B A GEORGIA B A FL PNHDL B A FL PENIN B A AK N SLOPE A N AK ALEUTIAN A A AK WESTERN A A AK INT BSN A A AK S INT A A AK SO COAST A A AK PNHDL A A LEGEND TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN B - BELOW B - BELOW THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS PMDMRD. $$