PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSIONS FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 300 PM EST THU JAN 04 2007 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK VALID FOR JAN 10 - 14 2007 TODAYS ENSEMBLE MEANS ARE IN FAIR TO GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE OVERALL 500-HPA FLOW PATTERN OVER THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE. THE MAIN CYCLONIC FEATURES AS DEPICTED BY THE ENSEMBLE MEANS ARE A PAIR OF POLAR LOWS LOCATED OVER WESTERN GREENLAND AND THE BERING SEA RESPECTIVELY. NORTHERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE POLAR JET AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF THE GREENLAND LOW SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO USHER IN ARCTIC AIR TO MUCH OF THE NORTHWEST CONUS. ALSO... A MID-LATITUDE JET IS FORECAST BY MANY OF TODAYS MODELS (PARTICULARLY THE SINGLE OPERATIONAL RUNS) TO PLUNGE SOUTHWARD ALONG OR JUST OFF THE PACIFIC COAST OF THE CONUS WHICH WOULD RESULT IN A FAIRLY STRONG TROUGH OVER OR NEAR THE SOUTHWEST U.S. SHOULD THIS FEATURE DEVELOP... PRECIPITATION CHANCES WOULD BE INCREASED FOR PARTS OF THE SOUTHWEST AND THE COLD AIR WOULD BE ALLOWED TO ADVANCE FURTHER SOUTH INTO THE REGION. CONVERSELY... MUCH OF THE EASTERN U.S. IS EXPECTED TO EXPERIENCE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES DOWNSTREAM OF THIS TROUGH UNDERNEATH MILD SOUTHWESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW AND STRONG POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES. OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS... STRONG TEMPERATURE GRADIENTS ARE POSSIBLE BETWEEN THE MILD AIR EXPECTED OVER THE EASTERN U.S. AND THE COLD AIR MASS EXPECTED FOR THE WEST. THESE STRONG TEMPERATURE GRADIENTS IN COMBINATION WITH ANY SHORTWAVE ENERGY THAT MAY EJECT INTO THE REGION FROM THE WESTERN TROUGH FAVORS ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR MUCH OF THE MID-SECTION OF THE COUNTRY. ELSEWHERE... SOUTHWEST FLOW AND POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES AHEAD OF THE SIBERIAN LOW SHOULD RESULT IN A MILD AND MOIST WEATHER REGIME FOR MOST OF WESTERN ALASKA. TODAYS OFFICIAL 500-HPA BLEND CONSISTS OF 5 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...35 PERCENT OF TODAY'S GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...AND 50 PERCENT OF TODAY'S EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 7. MODEL(S) OF THE DAY: ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD IS ABOVE AVERAGE... 4 ON A SCALE OF 1 TO 5 DUE TO GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE ENSEMBLE MEANS. THE 6-10 DAY TEMPERATURE PROG IS BASED ON THE KLEIN AND ANALOG SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE BLENDED HEIGHT FIELD... THE CPC AUTO FORECAST... AND THE CDC TEMPERATURE TOOL. THE 6-10 DAY PRECIPITATION PROG IS BASED ON THE ANALOG AND NEURAL NET SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLENDED HEIGHTS... THE CPC CALIBRATED PRECIPITATION PERCENTAGES FROM THE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS... AND CPC CALIBRATED PRECIPITATION FROM THE 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN. 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JAN 12 - 18 2007: DURING WEEK 2... THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEANS ARE IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT AND DEPICT A SLIGHT PROGRESSION OF THE OVERALL PATTERN DESCRIBED FOR THE 6 TO 10 DAY TIME FRAME (THE CANADIAN MODEL WAS UNAVAILABLE TODAY). A HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CONUS WITH STRONG POSITIVE ANOMALIES AND SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW DOMINATING THE EAST. THE RESULTANT FLOW PATTERN WOULD RESULT IN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE EAST AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE WESTERN CONUS WITH THE CENTRAL U.S. BEING THE FOCUS OF PRECIPITATION IN THE TRANSITION AREA BETWEEN THE TWO AIR MASSES. SOUTHWESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW AND RIDGING AHEAD OF A POLAR LOW EXPECTED TO BE LOCATED OVER THE BERING SEA FAVORS ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION AND TEMPERATURES FOR THE VAST MAJORITY OF ALASKA. THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY HEIGHT PROG CONSISTS OF 25 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...25 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...AND 50 PERCENT OF TODAY'S GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11. FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD IS ABOVE AVERAGE... 4 ON A SCALE OF 1 TO 5 DUE TO FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS. THE 8-14 DAY TEMPERATURE PROG IS BASED ON THE KLEIN AND ANALOG SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE BLENDED HEIGHT FIELD... THE CPC AUTO FORECAST... AND THE CDC TEMPERATURE TOOL. THE 8-14 DAY PRECIPITATION PROG IS BASED ON THE ANALOG AND NEURAL NET SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLENDED HEIGHTS... THE CPC CALIBRATED PRECIPITATION PERCENTAGES FROM THE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS... AND CPC CALIBRATED PRECIPITATION FROM THE 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN. FORECASTER: S HANDEL NOTES: OPERATIONAL CHANGE: AS OF JULY 5 2005 SHADED MAPS HAVE REPLACED THE CONTOUR-ONLY MAPS ON THE CPC WEB SITE. THE CONTOURED MAPS ARE STILL AVAILABLE AT THEIR CURRENT FILE NAMES - SO DIRECT-LINKED USERS ARE NOT AFFECTED. AWIPS GRAPHICS ARE ALSO NOT AFFECTED BY THIS CHANGE. AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OTHERWISE - FORECASTS INCORPORATE FORECASTER INPUT. THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION. THE NARRATIVE DESCRIPTION OF THE FORECAST PATTERNS FOR TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION FOR BOTH THE 6-10 OR 8-14 DAY PERIODS HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. THE STATE TABLES FOR BOTH THE 6-10 AND 8-14 DAY PERIODS ARE NOW CONTAINED IN THIS MESSAGE...AVAILABLE AS PMDMRD ON AWIPS. THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1971-2000 BASE PERIOD MEANS FOR TEMPERATURE...PRECIPITATION...AND 500-HPA HEIGHTS AS REFERENCE IN THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS. THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON JANUARY 18. NEW NOTE EFFECTIVE MAR 16 2004: THE GLOSSARY FORMERLY FOUND AT THIS LOCATION WILL NO LONGER BE TRANSMITTED AS PART OF THIS MESSAGE. IF YOU WISH TO SEE THE DEFINITIONS OF TERMS USED IN THESE MESSAGES... PLEASE GO TO THE CPC WEB PAGE AT (USE LOWER CASE) HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV AND FOLLOW THE APPROPRIATE LINKS. 6 to 10 day Outlook Table OUTLOOK FOR JAN 10 - 14, 2007 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON B B OREGON B B NRN CALIF B N SRN CALIF B N IDAHO B N NEVADA B N W MONTANA B N E MONTANA B N WYOMING B N UTAH B N ARIZONA B A COLORADO B A NEW MEXICO B A N DAKOTA B A S DAKOTA B N NEBRASKA B A KANSAS N A OKLAHOMA N A N TEXAS A A S TEXAS A N W TEXAS N A MINNESOTA N A IOWA N A MISSOURI N A ARKANSAS A A LOUISIANA A N WISCONSIN N A ILLINOIS A A MISSISSIPPI A N MICHIGAN A A INDIANA A A OHIO A A KENTUCKY A N TENNESSEE A N ALABAMA A B NEW YORK A N VERMONT A N NEW HAMP A N MAINE A N MASS A B CONN A B RHODE IS A B PENN A N NEW JERSEY A B W VIRGINIA A N MARYLAND A B DELAWARE A B VIRGINIA A B N CAROLINA A B S CAROLINA A B GEORGIA A B FL PNHDL A B FL PENIN A B AK N SLOPE N N AK ALEUTIAN A A AK WESTERN A A AK INT BSN N N AK S INT N A AK SO COAST B A AK PNHDL B N 8 to 14 day Outlook Table OUTLOOK FOR JAN 12 - 18, 2007 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON B B OREGON B B NRN CALIF B N SRN CALIF B N IDAHO B B NEVADA B N W MONTANA B B E MONTANA B N WYOMING B N UTAH B N ARIZONA B N COLORADO B A NEW MEXICO B A N DAKOTA B N S DAKOTA B N NEBRASKA B A KANSAS B A OKLAHOMA B A N TEXAS N A S TEXAS N A W TEXAS B A MINNESOTA B N IOWA N A MISSOURI N A ARKANSAS N A LOUISIANA A N WISCONSIN N A ILLINOIS N A MISSISSIPPI A N MICHIGAN N A INDIANA A A OHIO A A KENTUCKY A A TENNESSEE A A ALABAMA A N NEW YORK A A VERMONT A N NEW HAMP A N MAINE A N MASS A N CONN A N RHODE IS A N PENN A A NEW JERSEY A N W VIRGINIA A N MARYLAND A N DELAWARE A N VIRGINIA A N N CAROLINA A N S CAROLINA A N GEORGIA A N FL PNHDL A B FL PENIN A B AK N SLOPE A A AK ALEUTIAN A A AK WESTERN A A AK INT BSN A A AK S INT A A AK SO COAST A A AK PNHDL N N LEGEND TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN B - BELOW B - BELOW THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS PMDMRD. $$