PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSIONS FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 300 PM EST WED JAN 03 2007 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK VALID FOR JAN 09 - 13 2007 TODAYS ENSEMBLE MEANS ARE IN FAIR TO GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE OVERALL 500-HPA FLOW PATTERN OVER THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE (ALTHOUGH AGREEMENT AMONG THE INDIVIDUAL OPERATIONAL RUNS IS RELATIVELY POOR). THE MAIN CYCLONIC FEATURES AS DEPICTED BY THE ENSEMBLE MEANS ARE A PAIR OF POLAR LOWS LOCATED OVER WESTERN GREENLAND AND NEAR EASTERN SIBERIA OVER THE SEA OF OKHOTSK. NORTHERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF THE GREENLAND LOW SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO USHER IN ARCTIC AIR TO EASTERN ALASKA AND MUCH OF THE NORTHWEST CONUS. SNOW COVER LEFT OVER FROM RECENT STORMS OVER PARTS OF THE HIGH PLAINS MAY ALSO AID IN EXTENDING THESE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FURTHER EAST TOWARD THE CENTRAL U.S. TO THE SOUTH OF THE GREENLAND LOW... RIDGING AND ASSOCIATED POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES IS FORECAST TO STRETCH ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTH ATLANTIC AND OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS. THIS PATTERN IS CONSISTENT WITH THE POSITIVE PHASE OF THE NAO WHICH TYPICALLY FAVORS ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THE EASTERN U.S. DRIER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS ARE ALSO EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST AS MOST OF THE ATMOSPHERIC DYNAMICS CONDUCIVE TO PRECIPITATION SHOULD REMAIN WELL TO THE NORTH AND WEST TOWARDS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AND NORTHERN TIER OF STATES. ELSEWHERE... SOUTHWEST FLOW AND POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES AHEAD OF THE SIBERIAN LOW SHOULD RESULT IN A MILD AND MOIST WEATHER REGIME FOR MOST OF WESTERN ALASKA. TODAYS OFFICIAL 500-HPA BLEND CONSISTS OF 5 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...50 PERCENT OF TODAY'S GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...AND 45 PERCENT OF TODAY'S EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 7. MODEL(S) OF THE DAY: GFS SUPER ENSEMBLE MEAN FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD IS AVERAGE... 3 ON A SCALE OF 1 TO 5 DUE TO GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE ENSEMBLE MEANS OFFSET BY RELATIVELY POOR AGREEMENT AMONG THE INDIVIDUAL OPERATIONAL MODEL RUNS. THE 6-10 DAY TEMPERATURE PROG IS BASED ON THE KLEIN AND ANALOG SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE BLENDED HEIGHT FIELD... THE CPC AUTO FORECAST... AND THE CDC TEMPERATURE TOOL. THE 6-10 DAY PRECIPITATION PROG IS BASED ON THE ANALOG AND NEURAL NET SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICAL BLENDED HEIGHTS... THE CPC AUTO FORECAST... THE CPC CALIBRATED PRECIPITATION PERCENTAGES FROM THE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS... CPC CALIBRATED PRECIPITATION FROM THE 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN... AND THE CDC PRECIPITATION TOOL. 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JAN 11 - 17 2007: DURING WEEK 2... THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEANS ARE IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH EACH OTHER BUT IN POOR AGREEMENT WITH THEIR RESPECTIVE SINGLE OPERATIONAL RUNS. DUE TO THE FACT THAT THE OPERATIONAL RUNS ARE IN POOR AGREEMENT TODAY AND THAT THEY CONSISTENTLY UNDERPERFORM THE ENSEMBLE MEANS DURING THE 8 TO 14 DAY TIME PERIOD... TODAYS FORECAST RELIES EXCLUSIVELY ON THE ENSEMBLE MEANS. THESE SOLUTIONS FORECAST A POLAR LOW TO REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY NEAR EASTERN SIBERIA AND ANOTHER POLAR LOW TO SINK SOUTHWARD TO THE SOUTHWEST OF GREENLAND RELATIVE TO THE 6 TO 10 DAY TIME FRAME. THIS SOUTHWARD MOVEMENT OF THE GREENLAND LOW WOULD ACT TO ENHANCE THE CROSS POLAR FLOW INTO THE WESTERN U.S. FAVORING THE ADVECTION OF ARCTIC AIR TO THE NORTHWEST CONUS. THIS INCREASED AMPLIFICATION MAY ALSO ALLOW SHORTWAVE ENERGY TO AFFECT THE SOUTHWEST... ALTHOUGH THE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THIS DEVELOPMENT IS VERY HIGH. THE MEAN POSITION OF THE TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE POLAR VORTEX SOUTHWEST OF GREENLAND IS EXPECTED TO STRETCH ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO THE SOUTHWEST CONUS. AHEAD OF THIS AXIS... SOUTHWESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW AND POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES FAVOR A MILDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURE REGIME FOR MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE SOUTHEAST. ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND PARTS OF THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY CLOSER TO THE BOUNDARY BETWEEN THE COLD AIR OVER THE NORTHWEST CONUS AND THE MILDER AIR OVER THE SOUTHEAST. ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS ALSO FAVORED FOR WESTERN ALASKA AS MEAN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE SIBERIAN VORTEX IS EXPECTED TO USHER IN A RELATIVELY MOIST AIRMASS TOGETHER WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY HEIGHT PROG CONSISTS OF 25 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...25 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...AND 50 PERCENT OF TODAY'S GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11. FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD IS AVERAGE... 3 ON A SCALE OF 1 TO 5 DUE TO FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS OFFSET BY DIFFERENCES IN THE INDIVIDUAL OPERATIONAL RUNS. THE 8-14 DAY TEMPERATURE PROG IS BASED ON THE KLEIN AND ANALOG SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE BLENDED HEIGHT FIELD AND THE CPC AUTO FORECAST. THE 8-14 DAY PRECIPITATION PROG IS BASED ON THE ANALOG AND NEURAL NET SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICAL BLENDED HEIGHTS... THE CPC AUTO FORECAST... THE CPC CALIBRATED PRECIPITATION PERCENTAGES FROM THE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS... AND CPC CALIBRATED PRECIPITATION FROM THE 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN. FORECASTER: S HANDEL NOTES: OPERATIONAL CHANGE: AS OF JULY 5 2005 SHADED MAPS HAVE REPLACED THE CONTOUR-ONLY MAPS ON THE CPC WEB SITE. THE CONTOURED MAPS ARE STILL AVAILABLE AT THEIR CURRENT FILE NAMES - SO DIRECT-LINKED USERS ARE NOT AFFECTED. AWIPS GRAPHICS ARE ALSO NOT AFFECTED BY THIS CHANGE. AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OTHERWISE - FORECASTS INCORPORATE FORECASTER INPUT. THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION. THE NARRATIVE DESCRIPTION OF THE FORECAST PATTERNS FOR TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION FOR BOTH THE 6-10 OR 8-14 DAY PERIODS HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. THE STATE TABLES FOR BOTH THE 6-10 AND 8-14 DAY PERIODS ARE NOW CONTAINED IN THIS MESSAGE...AVAILABLE AS PMDMRD ON AWIPS. THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1971-2000 BASE PERIOD MEANS FOR TEMPERATURE...PRECIPITATION...AND 500-HPA HEIGHTS AS REFERENCE IN THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS. THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON JANUARY 18. NEW NOTE EFFECTIVE MAR 16 2004: THE GLOSSARY FORMERLY FOUND AT THIS LOCATION WILL NO LONGER BE TRANSMITTED AS PART OF THIS MESSAGE. IF YOU WISH TO SEE THE DEFINITIONS OF TERMS USED IN THESE MESSAGES... PLEASE GO TO THE CPC WEB PAGE AT (USE LOWER CASE) HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV AND FOLLOW THE APPROPRIATE LINKS. ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3) FOR THE REGION FROM 20N to 70N LATITUDE AND 175E to 60W LONGITUDE INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 19861224 - 19941221 - 19610113 - 19981214 - 19911220 ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4) FOR THE REGION FROM 20N to 70N LATITUDE AND 175E to 60W LONGITUDE INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 19981213 - 19861225 - 19870108 - 19610112 - 19941220 6 to 10 day Outlook Table OUTLOOK FOR JAN 09 - 13, 2007 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON B N OREGON B N NRN CALIF B N SRN CALIF B N IDAHO B N NEVADA B N W MONTANA B A E MONTANA B A WYOMING B N UTAH B N ARIZONA B N COLORADO B N NEW MEXICO N N N DAKOTA B A S DAKOTA B N NEBRASKA B N KANSAS B N OKLAHOMA N N N TEXAS N N S TEXAS N B W TEXAS N N MINNESOTA B A IOWA N A MISSOURI N A ARKANSAS A N LOUISIANA A B WISCONSIN N A ILLINOIS N A MISSISSIPPI A B MICHIGAN A A INDIANA A A OHIO A N KENTUCKY A N TENNESSEE A N ALABAMA A B NEW YORK A N VERMONT A N NEW HAMP A N MAINE A N MASS A N CONN A N RHODE IS A N PENN A N NEW JERSEY A N W VIRGINIA A N MARYLAND A B DELAWARE A B VIRGINIA A B N CAROLINA A B S CAROLINA A B GEORGIA A B FL PNHDL A B FL PENIN A B AK N SLOPE N A AK ALEUTIAN A N AK WESTERN A A AK INT BSN N N AK S INT N N AK SO COAST B N AK PNHDL B B 8 to 14 day Outlook Table OUTLOOK FOR JAN 11 - 17, 2007 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON B B OREGON B N NRN CALIF B N SRN CALIF B A IDAHO B N NEVADA B N W MONTANA B N E MONTANA B N WYOMING B N UTAH B N ARIZONA B A COLORADO B N NEW MEXICO N N N DAKOTA B N S DAKOTA B N NEBRASKA B N KANSAS B N OKLAHOMA B N N TEXAS N N S TEXAS N N W TEXAS N N MINNESOTA B A IOWA B A MISSOURI B A ARKANSAS N N LOUISIANA N N WISCONSIN B A ILLINOIS N A MISSISSIPPI A N MICHIGAN N A INDIANA N A OHIO A A KENTUCKY A A TENNESSEE A N ALABAMA A N NEW YORK A A VERMONT A A NEW HAMP A A MAINE A A MASS A N CONN A N RHODE IS A N PENN A N NEW JERSEY A N W VIRGINIA A N MARYLAND A N DELAWARE A N VIRGINIA A N N CAROLINA A B S CAROLINA A B GEORGIA A B FL PNHDL A B FL PENIN A B AK N SLOPE A A AK ALEUTIAN A N AK WESTERN A A AK INT BSN A N AK S INT N B AK SO COAST A B AK PNHDL B B LEGEND TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN B - BELOW B - BELOW THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS PMDMRD. $$