PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSIONS FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 300 PM EST MON JAN 01 2007 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK VALID FOR JAN 07 - 11 2007 TODAYS ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS REMAIN IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT ON THE EXPECTED 500-HPA FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE PACIFIC AND NORTH AMERICA DURING THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD... AND ARE CONSISTENT WITH RECENT FORECASTS. AS USUAL THE OPERATIONAL RUNS ARE SOMEWHAT MORE AMPLIFIED THAN THE ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS... BUT ALL ARE IN FAIRLY CLOSE AGREEMENT ON PHASE. THE 0Z ECM OPERATIONAL MODEL... 6Z GFS OPERATIONAL MODEL... AND THE CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN LOWER HEIGHTS A LTTTLE MORE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THAN THE OTHER SOLUTIONS. YESTERDAYS 12Z GFS OPERATIONAL MODEL HAD THE MOST AMPLFIED SOLUTION... WITH A FULL LATITUDE TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES. THEREFORE... FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS QUITE HIGH FOR THE EXPECTED HEIGHT PATTERN ACROSS NORTH AMERICA. A STRONG RIDGE IS PREDICTED TO BUILD OVER THE EAST-CENTRAL PACIFIC... CONTINUING A TREND THAT WAS HINTED AT IN THE 8-14 DAY FORECASTS MADE LATE LAST WEEK. THERE IS ALSO A STRONGER INDICATION TODAY OF A WEAK TROUGH DEVELOPING AT LOW LATITUDES NEAR HAWAII. OVERALL... THE CURRENT PREDICTED 500-HPA HEIGHT PATTERN IS NOT TYPICALLY WHAT IS EXPECTED DURING AN EL NINO... BUT THE FORECAST HEIGHT PATTERN AND ASSOCIATED CLIMATE ANOMALIES ARE MORE LIKE WHAT ARE EXPECTED DURING LA NINA. THIS IS PROBABLY A TEMPORARY PATTERN THAT COULD BE FORCED IN PART BY AN MJO WAVE MOVING OUT OVER THE WESTERN PACIFIC. MJO ACTIVITY IS USUALLY NOT SHUT DOWN COMPLETELY EXCEPT DURING A STRONG EL NINO... AND THE CURRENT EL NINO HAS JUST RECENTLY STRENGTHENED INTO THE LOWER PART OF THE MODERATE RANGE. NO SIGNALS FOR STRONG ARCTIC OUTBREAKS INTO THE CONUS CAN BE IDENTIFIED THROUGH THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD... ALTHOUGH THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF ARCTIC AIR BUILDING UP OVER ALASKA AND NORTHWESTERN CANADA MIGHT OCCASIONALLY MOVE INTO THE INTERIOR PACIFIC NORTHWEST OR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE ROCKIES AND GREAT PLAINS. THE LARGEST POSITIVE TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. THE GREATEST UNCERTAINTY IN THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST EXISTS ACROSS THE WEST DUE TO SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE AMPLITUDE AND PHASE OF THE MEAN TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN U.S. AND THE POSSIBLE ANOMALOUS INFLUENCE OF SNOW COVERED GROUND IN SOME AREAS. STRONG ONSHORE FLOW WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO BRING ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION TO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST... BUT LACK OF A TROPICAL CONNECTION WILL PROBABLY MEAN THAT AMOUNTS WILL NOT BE EXCESSIVE. RELAVIELY COLD AIR ALOFT WILL ALSO BRING THE FREEZING LEVEL DOWN TO LOWER ELEVATIONS... WHICH WILL ALSO LIMIT THE RISK OF FLOODING. TODAYS OFFICIAL 500-HPA BLEND CONSISTS OF 10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 0Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 8...10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL ECMWF CENTERED ON DAY 7...10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...10 PERCENT OF YESTERDAY'S 12Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 7...30 PERCENT OF TODAY'S GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...AND 20 PERCENT OF TODAY'S EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 7. MODEL(S) OF THE DAY: GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD IS WELL ABOVE AVERAGE... 5 ON A SCALE OF 1 TO 5 DUE TO GENERALLY EXCELLENT AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS AND TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TOOLS ALONG WITH GOOD CONTINUITY. THE 6-10 DAY TEMPERATURE PROG IS BASED ON THE KLEIN... NEURAL NET... AND ANALOG SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE BLENDED HEIGHT FIELD... THE CPC AUTO FORECAST... THE 2 METER CALIBRATED TEMPERATURE FORECAST FROM THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN... AND THE KLEIN AND NEURAL NET SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE VARIOUS GFS ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS... 12Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN... AND THE CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN. THE 6-10 DAY PRECIPITATION PROG IS BASED ON THE ANALOG AND NEURAL NET SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICAL BLENDED HEIGHTS... THE CPC AUTO FORECAST... THE EMC CALIBRATED PRECIPITATION PERCENTAGES FROM THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS... AND THE CALIBRATED PRECIPITATION FROM THE 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN. RECENT BIASES WERE ALSO CONSIDERED. THE CPC CALIBRATED PRECIPITATION PERCENTAGES FROM THE ENSEMBLE MEMEBERS WERE NOT AVAILABLE. 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JAN 09 - 15 2007: DURING WEEK 2... THE VARIOUS GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS AND ESPECIALLY SOME OF THE OPERATIONAL MODELS SHOW AN AMPLIFICATION OF THE PATTERN COMPARED TO MOST SOLUTIONS FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD. THE OPERATIONAL MODELS ARE MUCH MORE AMPLIFIED THAN THE CORRESPONDING ENSEMBLE MEANS... BUT THEY ARE OF SOMEWHAT QUESTIONABLE UTILITY SINCE THEY HAVE RATHER LARGE PHASE DIFFERENCES. THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN DEPICT A TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN U.S. THE OPERATIONAL RUN OF THE 6Z GFS IS AN OUTLIER... PREDICTING A VERY STRONG POSITIVELY-TILTING TROUGH NEAR THE WEST COAST... WHILE THE 0Z OPERATIONAL GFS HAD A MORE REASONABLY-PHASED STRONG TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES. THIS LATTER MODEL HAS BEEN SCORING ALMOST AS WELL AS THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEANS... AND SO WAS GIVEN A RELATIVELY GENEROUS WEIGHT IN THE BLENDED HEIGHT FORECAST. THE DOMINANT POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES CENTERED OVER THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. AND THE CANADIAN MARITIMES DURING DAYS 6-10 ARE FORECAST TO SHIFT SLIGHTLY SOUTHWESTWARD WHILE WEAKENING... WHILE THE STRONG NEGATIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES CENTERED OVER NORTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA DURING THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD ARE PREDICTED TO WEAKEN BUT MOVE TOWARDS THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE U.S. GREAT PLAINS AND ROCKIES. HOWEVER... WELL INTO WEEK 2... TEMPERATURE TOOLS STRONGLY SUGGEST THAT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE OVER THE EASTERN U.S. NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE WEST... INCLUDING THE HIGH PLAINS. ELSEWHERE... BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY CONTINUE OVER EASTERN ALASKA... BUT MODERATION IS LIKELY OVER THE ALEUTIANS AND THE WESTERN PART OF THE STATE. AHEAD OF THE TROUGH LOCATED OVER THE WEST... ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IS ANTICIPATED OVER MUCH OF THE AREA FROM THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE APPALACHIANS. THE ALASKAN PANHANDLE AND PACIFIC NORTHWEST LOOK SOMEWHAT DRIER THAN THEY HAVE BEEN RECENTLY. BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE LIMITED TO PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST AND THE WEST COAST. THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY HEIGHT PROG CONSISTS OF 15 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 0Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 11...12 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...15 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...5 PERCENT OF YESTERDAY'S 12Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 10...8 PERCENT OF YESTERDAY'S 18Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 10...30 PERCENT OF TODAY'S GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...AND 15 PERCENT OF TODAY'S CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11. FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD IS AVERAGE... 3 ON A SCALE OF 1 TO 5 DUE TO FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE RATHER WEAK ANOMALIES PREDICTED BY THE ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS BUT WIDELY DIFFERING PHASES IN HIGHLY AMPLIFIED SOLUTIONS OF THE OPERATIONAL MODELS... SUGGESTING A LARGE SPREAD AND THE POSSIBILITY OF A PATTERN CHANGE DURING WEEK 2. THE 8-14 DAY TEMPERATURE PROG IS BASED ON THE KLEIN... NEURAL NET... AND ANALOG SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE BLENDED HEIGHT FIELD... THE CPC AUTO FORECAST... THE 2 METER CALIBRATED TEMPERATURE FORECAST FROM THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN... AND THE KLEIN AND NEURAL NET SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEANS AND THE 0Z GFS OPERAIONAL MODEL. THE 8-14 DAY PRECIPITATION PROG IS BASED ON THE ANALOG AND NEURAL NET SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICAL BLENDED HEIGHTS... THE CPC AUTO FORECAST... EMC CALIBRATED PRECIPITATION PERCENTAGES FROM THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS... AND BIAS CORRECTED PRECIPITATION FROM THE 0Z GFS OPERATIONAL AND 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS. THE CPC CALIBRATED PRECIPITATION PERCENTAGES FROM THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS WAS NOT AVAILABLE. FORECASTER: WAGMER NOTES: OPERATIONAL CHANGE: AS OF JULY 5 2005 SHADED MAPS HAVE REPLACED THE CONTOUR-ONLY MAPS ON THE CPC WEB SITE. THE CONTOURED MAPS ARE STILL AVAILABLE AT THEIR CURRENT FILE NAMES - SO DIRECT-LINKED USERS ARE NOT AFFECTED. AWIPS GRAPHICS ARE ALSO NOT AFFECTED BY THIS CHANGE. AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OTHERWISE - FORECASTS INCORPORATE FORECASTER INPUT. THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION. THE NARRATIVE DESCRIPTION OF THE FORECAST PATTERNS FOR TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION FOR BOTH THE 6-10 OR 8-14 DAY PERIODS HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. THE STATE TABLES FOR BOTH THE 6-10 AND 8-14 DAY PERIODS ARE NOW CONTAINED IN THIS MESSAGE...AVAILABLE AS PMDMRD ON AWIPS. THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1971-2000 BASE PERIOD MEANS FOR TEMPERATURE...PRECIPITATION...AND 500-HPA HEIGHTS AS REFERENCE IN THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS. THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON JANUARY 18. NEW NOTE EFFECTIVE MAR 16 2004: THE GLOSSARY FORMERLY FOUND AT THIS LOCATION WILL NO LONGER BE TRANSMITTED AS PART OF THIS MESSAGE. IF YOU WISH TO SEE THE DEFINITIONS OF TERMS USED IN THESE MESSAGES... PLEASE GO TO THE CPC WEB PAGE AT (USE LOWER CASE) HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV AND FOLLOW THE APPROPRIATE LINKS. ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3) FOR THE REGION FROM 20N to 70N LATITUDE AND 175E to 60W LONGITUDE INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 19870108 - 19981212 - 19941227 - 19861225 - 19941221 ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4) FOR THE REGION FROM 20N to 70N LATITUDE AND 175E to 60W LONGITUDE INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 19981212 - 19861226 - 19941221 - 19941227 - 19870108 6 to 10 day Outlook Table OUTLOOK FOR JAN 07 - 11, 2007 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON N A OREGON N N NRN CALIF N B SRN CALIF N B IDAHO N A NEVADA B B W MONTANA N A E MONTANA N A WYOMING N A UTAH B N ARIZONA B B COLORADO B A NEW MEXICO N N N DAKOTA A A S DAKOTA A N NEBRASKA A N KANSAS A N OKLAHOMA A A N TEXAS A A S TEXAS A A W TEXAS N A MINNESOTA A A IOWA A A MISSOURI A A ARKANSAS A A LOUISIANA A A WISCONSIN A A ILLINOIS A A MISSISSIPPI A A MICHIGAN A A INDIANA A A OHIO A A KENTUCKY A A TENNESSEE A A ALABAMA A A NEW YORK A A VERMONT A A NEW HAMP A A MAINE A A MASS A A CONN A A RHODE IS A A PENN A A NEW JERSEY A A W VIRGINIA A A MARYLAND A A DELAWARE A A VIRGINIA A A N CAROLINA A A S CAROLINA A A GEORGIA A A FL PNHDL A N FL PENIN A B AK N SLOPE B N AK ALEUTIAN B N AK WESTERN B N AK INT BSN B N AK S INT B N AK SO COAST B B AK PNHDL B N 8 to 14 day Outlook Table OUTLOOK FOR JAN 09 - 15, 2007 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON B N OREGON N N NRN CALIF B B SRN CALIF B N IDAHO N A NEVADA B N W MONTANA B A E MONTANA B A WYOMING B N UTAH B N ARIZONA B N COLORADO N N NEW MEXICO N B N DAKOTA B A S DAKOTA B N NEBRASKA N N KANSAS N N OKLAHOMA N A N TEXAS N A S TEXAS A N W TEXAS N B MINNESOTA N N IOWA N A MISSOURI N A ARKANSAS A A LOUISIANA A A WISCONSIN A A ILLINOIS A A MISSISSIPPI A A MICHIGAN A A INDIANA A A OHIO A A KENTUCKY A A TENNESSEE A A ALABAMA A A NEW YORK A A VERMONT A A NEW HAMP A A MAINE A A MASS A A CONN A A RHODE IS A N PENN A A NEW JERSEY A A W VIRGINIA A A MARYLAND A A DELAWARE A N VIRGINIA A A N CAROLINA A N S CAROLINA A N GEORGIA A N FL PNHDL A B FL PENIN A B AK N SLOPE N N AK ALEUTIAN A N AK WESTERN N N AK INT BSN N N AK S INT N N AK SO COAST N B AK PNHDL B B LEGEND TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN B - BELOW B - BELOW THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS PMDMRD. $$