PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSIONS FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 300 PM EST TUE DEC 26 2006 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK VALID FOR JAN 01 - 05 2007 TODAYS NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE EXPECTED 500-HPA FLOW PATTERN ACROSS NORTH AMERICA DURING THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD. THE GREATEST 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES (-240 METERS ACCORDING TO THE PREFERRED GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN) ARE LOCATED NEAR THE ALEUTIANS. TODAYS GFS AND ECWMF ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS MAINTAIN EXCELLENT CONTINUITY FROM YESTERDAY REGARDING THE LARGE NEGATIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES OVER ALASKA WITH DOWNSTREAM POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES OVER MUCH OF THE CONUS AND CANADA. THE VARIOUS GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS SHOW A SLIGHTLY MORE PROGRESSIVE TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS COMPARED TO THE 12Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTION. THE 6-10 DAY OFFICIAL BLEND THAT WAS WEIGHTED MOST HEAVILY TOWARDS THE GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN INDICATES ABOVE NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS FOR THE CONUS EXCEPT ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. AT THE BEGINNING OF THE OUTLOOK PERIOD... THE OPERATIONAL RUNS OF THE 0Z CANADIAN AND ECMWF FORECAST A BRIEF PERIOD OF SEASONAL WINTERTIME TEMPERATURES FOR THE PLAINS AND MIDWEST BEFORE MILD PACIFIC FLOW RESULTS IN THE RETURN OF WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THEREFORE... ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST FOR MUCH OF THE CONUS EXCLUDING THE GULF COAST WHERE NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED. ELSEWHERE... THE EXPANSIVE AREA OF BELOW NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS CENTERED OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA FAVORS BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR ALASKA. ALL OPERATIONAL RUNS OF THE GFS... ECMWF... AND CANADIAN AGREE THAT A SLOW-MOVING STORM WILL DEPART THE EASTERN U.S. AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. THEREFORE... NORMAL TO ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHEAST AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. THE STRONG TROUGH ANCHORED OVER THE ALEUTIANS AND MOIST PACIFIC FLOW WILL LIKELY LEAD TO ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST... NORTHERN CALIFORNIA... AND THE ALASKAN PANHANDLE. OTHERWISE... A DOMINANT AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN DRIER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS FOR THE ROCKIES AND PLAINS AFTER TWO MAJOR WINTERSTORMS PRIOR TO THE OUTLOOK PERIOD. TODAYS OFFICIAL 500-HPA BLEND CONSISTS OF 20 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...20 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...30 PERCENT OF TODAY'S GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...AND 20 PERCENT OF TODAY'S EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 7. MODEL(S) OF THE DAY: GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD IS ABOVE AVERAGE... 4 ON A SCALE OF 1 TO 5 DUE TO GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS AND THE TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TOOLS. THE 6-10 DAY TEMPERATURE PROG IS BASED ON THE KLEIN... NEURAL NET... AND ANALOG SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE BLENDED HEIGHT FIELD... THE CDC FORECAST TOOL... THE CPC AUTO FORECAST... AND THE KLEIN SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE VARIOUS GFS ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS... 12Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN... AND THE CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN. THE 6-10 DAY PRECIPITATION PROG IS BASED ON THE ANALOG AND NEURAL NET SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICAL BLENDED HEIGHTS... THE CDC FORECAST TOOL... AND THE CPC AND EMC CALIBRATED PRECIPITATION PERCENTAGES FROM THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS. 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JAN 03 - 09 2007: DURING WEEK 2... THE EXPECTED 500-HPA FLOW PATTERN IS QUITE SIMILAR TO THE LONGWAVE PATTERN FORECAST FOR DAYS 6-10 WITH A SLIGHT DEAMPLIFICATION. THE LARGE NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES (180 METERS ACCORDING TO THE BLENDED HEIGHT FIELD) LOCATED OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA SHOULD PERSIST. ACROSS THE CONUS... THE VARIOUS GFS ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS ALONG WITH THE CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN INDICATE THAT ABOVE NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS WILL ALSO PERSIST. GFS ENSEMBLE FORECASTS MAINTAIN SLIGHTLY POSITIVE ARCTIC OSCILLATION (AO) AND NORTH ATLANTIC (NAO) INDICES INTO WEEK 2. THEREFORE... ACROSS THE CONUS... ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE WITH NO SIGNS OF ARCTIC OUTBREAKS IN THE FORSEEABLE FUTURE. MEANWHILE... TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AT OR BELOW NORMAL FOR ALASKA DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF THE TROUGH OVER THE ALEUTIANS. DESPITE EXCELLENT AGREEMENT AMONG THE TEMPERATURE TOOLS... THE PRECIPITATION TOOLS DIFFER MODERATELY ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL U.S. AS 500-HPA HEIGHTS FALL ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST... THE PACIFIC STORM TRACK MAY SHIFT TOWARDS CALIFORNIA AND ALLOW FOR A SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO ENTER THE SOUTHWEST. THE 0... 6... AND 12Z OPERATIONAL RUNS OF THE GFS SHOW A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ENTERING THE SOUTHWEST AT THE BEGINNING OF WEEK 2. THE ANALOG AND NEURAL NET SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE BLENDED HEIGHT FIELD SUPPORTS ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION ACROSS CALIFORNIA AND THE SOUTHWEST. THEREFORE... ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FOR THE WEST COAST... THE SOUTHWEST... AND THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE ALASKAN PANHANDLE SHOULD ALSO REMAIN WETTER THAN NORMAL. ELSEWHERE... BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION SHOULD PERSIST FOR THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES WITH NEAR NORMAL PRECIPITATION ANTICIPATED FOR THE EAST AND GULF COAST STATES. THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY HEIGHT PROG CONSISTS OF 20 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...20 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...40 PERCENT OF TODAY'S GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...AND 20 PERCENT OF TODAY'S CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11. FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD IS AVERAGE... 3 ON A SCALE OF 1 TO 5 DUE TO GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE TEMPERATURE TOOLS OFFSET BY FAIR AGREEMENT AMONG THE PRECIPITATION TOOLS. THE 8-14 DAY TEMPERATURE PROG IS BASED ON THE KLEIN... NEURAL NET... AND ANALOG SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE BLENDED HEIGHT FIELD... THE CDC FORECAST TOOL... THE CPC AUTO FORECAST... AND KLEIN AND NEURAL NET PERCENTAGES FROM THE GFS ENSEMBLE. THE 8-14 DAY PRECIPITATION PROG IS BASED ON THE ANALOG AND NEURAL NET SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICAL BLENDED HEIGHTS... THE CPC AUTO FORECAST... THE CDC FORECAST TOOL... CPC AND EMC CALIBRATED PRECIPITATION PERCENTAGES FROM THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS... AND CALIBRATED PRECIPITATION FROM THE 0Z AND 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN. FORECASTER: PUGH NOTES: OPERATIONAL CHANGE: AS OF JULY 5 2005 SHADED MAPS HAVE REPLACED THE CONTOUR-ONLY MAPS ON THE CPC WEB SITE. THE CONTOURED MAPS ARE STILL AVAILABLE AT THEIR CURRENT FILE NAMES - SO DIRECT-LINKED USERS ARE NOT AFFECTED. AWIPS GRAPHICS ARE ALSO NOT AFFECTED BY THIS CHANGE. AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OTHERWISE - FORECASTS INCORPORATE FORECASTER INPUT. THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION. THE NARRATIVE DESCRIPTION OF THE FORECAST PATTERNS FOR TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION FOR BOTH THE 6-10 OR 8-14 DAY PERIODS HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. THE STATE TABLES FOR BOTH THE 6-10 AND 8-14 DAY PERIODS ARE NOW CONTAINED IN THIS MESSAGE...AVAILABLE AS PMDMRD ON AWIPS. THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1971-2000 BASE PERIOD MEANS FOR TEMPERATURE...PRECIPITATION...AND 500-HPA HEIGHTS AS REFERENCE IN THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS. THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON JANUARY 18. NEW NOTE EFFECTIVE MAR 16 2004: THE GLOSSARY FORMERLY FOUND AT THIS LOCATION WILL NO LONGER BE TRANSMITTED AS PART OF THIS MESSAGE. IF YOU WISH TO SEE THE DEFINITIONS OF TERMS USED IN THESE MESSAGES... PLEASE GO TO THE CPC WEB PAGE AT (USE LOWER CASE) HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV AND FOLLOW THE APPROPRIATE LINKS. ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3) FOR THE REGION FROM 20N to 70N LATITUDE AND 175E to 60W LONGITUDE INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 19861227 - 19941220 - 19981211 - 19871208 - 19771215 ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4) FOR THE REGION FROM 20N to 70N LATITUDE AND 175E to 60W LONGITUDE INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 19861227 - 19941220 - 19981211 - 19911224 - 19900108 6 to 10 day Outlook Table OUTLOOK FOR JAN 01 - 05, 2007 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON A A OREGON A A NRN CALIF A A SRN CALIF A B IDAHO A N NEVADA A N W MONTANA A N E MONTANA A B WYOMING A B UTAH A B ARIZONA A B COLORADO A B NEW MEXICO N B N DAKOTA A B S DAKOTA A B NEBRASKA A B KANSAS A B OKLAHOMA A B N TEXAS N B S TEXAS N B W TEXAS N B MINNESOTA A B IOWA A B MISSOURI A B ARKANSAS A B LOUISIANA N B WISCONSIN A B ILLINOIS A B MISSISSIPPI N B MICHIGAN A B INDIANA A B OHIO A N KENTUCKY A B TENNESSEE A B ALABAMA N B NEW YORK A A VERMONT A A NEW HAMP A A MAINE A A MASS A A CONN A A RHODE IS A A PENN A N NEW JERSEY A A W VIRGINIA A N MARYLAND A N DELAWARE A N VIRGINIA A N N CAROLINA A N S CAROLINA A N GEORGIA N N FL PNHDL N N FL PENIN N A AK N SLOPE B B AK ALEUTIAN B N AK WESTERN B B AK INT BSN B B AK S INT B N AK SO COAST N A AK PNHDL A A 8 to 14 day Outlook Table OUTLOOK FOR JAN 03 - 09, 2007 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON A A OREGON A A NRN CALIF A A SRN CALIF A A IDAHO A A NEVADA A A W MONTANA A N E MONTANA A B WYOMING A N UTAH A A ARIZONA A A COLORADO A A NEW MEXICO A A N DAKOTA A B S DAKOTA A B NEBRASKA A N KANSAS A A OKLAHOMA A A N TEXAS A A S TEXAS A A W TEXAS A A MINNESOTA A B IOWA A N MISSOURI A A ARKANSAS A A LOUISIANA A A WISCONSIN A B ILLINOIS A N MISSISSIPPI A A MICHIGAN A B INDIANA A N OHIO A N KENTUCKY A N TENNESSEE A N ALABAMA A N NEW YORK A N VERMONT A N NEW HAMP A N MAINE A N MASS A N CONN A N RHODE IS A N PENN A N NEW JERSEY A N W VIRGINIA A N MARYLAND A N DELAWARE A N VIRGINIA A N N CAROLINA A N S CAROLINA A N GEORGIA A N FL PNHDL A N FL PENIN N N AK N SLOPE B B AK ALEUTIAN B B AK WESTERN B B AK INT BSN B N AK S INT N N AK SO COAST N N AK PNHDL N A LEGEND TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN B - BELOW B - BELOW THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS PMDMRD. $$