PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSIONS FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 300 PM EST MON DEC 11 2006 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK VALID FOR DEC 17 - 21 2006 TODAYS ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE EXPECTED 500-HPA CIRCULATION PATTERN FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD OVER NORTH AMERICA. RIDGING IS FORECAST OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS WHILE TROUGHING IS ANTICIPATED OVER THE INTERIOR WEST. A RIDGE IS FORECAST OVER EASTERN ALASKA WHILE A TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DOMINATE THE WESTERN PART OF THE STATE AND THE ALEUTIANS. THE CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN IS SOMEWHAT LESS AMPLIFIED COMPARED TO THE OTHER ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS. THE MOST RECENT HIGH RESOLUTION OPERATIONAL SOLUTIONS FROM THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS WITH ONLY MINOR DIFFERENCES IN REGARD TO THE PHASE AND AMPLITUDE OF INDIVIDUAL CIRCULATION FEATURES. IN GENERAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE NORMAL OVER MOST OF THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE CONUS AND SOUTHEASTERN CANADA AND BELOW NORMAL OVER THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS... WESTERN CANADA AND ALL OF ALASKA. THE MODELS SHOW GOOD CONTINUITY WITH RESPECT TO THEIR SOLUTIONS FROM YESTERDAY. THE PNA INDEX WHICH RECENTLY HAS BEEN POSITIVE IS FORECAST TO TREND TO NEAR ZERO BY DAY 7 AND REMAIN WEAKLY POSITIVE THROUGH DAY 14. THE NAO INDEX WHICH RECENTLY HAS BEEN STRONGLY POSITIVE IS FORECAST TO DECREASE IN VALUE BUT REMAIN SLIGHTLY POSITIVE THROUGH DAY 7 AND BE NEAR ZERO BY DAY 14. AS A RESULT OF ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS AND ANOMALOUS SOUTHERLY FLOW... MUCH OF THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE CONUS IS EXPECTED TO EXPERIENCE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE TROUGH FORECAST OVER THE INTERIOR WEST AND ITS ASSOCIATED AREA OF BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS IS LIKELY TO BRING NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS. THE RIDGE OVER EASTERN ALASKA SHOULD LEAD TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THAT REGION. SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE WESTERN TROUGH SHOULD CAUSE ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WHILE STORMS MOVING ONSHORE FROM THE PACIFIC WILL LIKELY LEAD TO ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION ALONG PARTS OF THE WEST COAST FROM CENTRAL CALIFORNIA NORTHWARD TO WASHINGTON STATE. TODAYS OFFICIAL 500-HPA BLEND CONSISTS OF 5 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 0Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 8...10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 6Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 8...5 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL ECMWF CENTERED ON DAY 7...15 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...25 PERCENT OF TODAY'S GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...AND 20 PERCENT OF TODAY'S EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 7. MODEL(S) OF THE DAY: GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD IS ABOVE AVERAGE... 4 ON A SCALE OF 1 TO 5 DUE TO GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT AND FAIR AGREEMENT AMONG THE FORECAST TOOLS. THE 6-10 DAY TEMPERATURE PROG IS BASED ON THE KLEIN... NEURAL NET AND ANALOG SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE BLENDED HEIGHT FIELD... BIAS-CORRECTED 850-HPA TEMPERATURES FROM THE OPERATIONAL 0Z GFS... THE CDC FORECAST TOOL... THE CPC AUTO FORECAST... UNCALIBRATED AND CALIBRATED 2-METER TEMPERATURES FROM THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN... AND THE KLEIN AND NEURAL NET PERCENTAGES FROM THE GFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLES. THE 6-10 DAY PRECIPITATION PROG IS BASED ON THE ANALOG AND NEURAL NET SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICAL BLENDED HEIGHTS... THE CPC AUTO FORECAST... THE CDC FORECAST TOOL... CPC AND EMC CALIBRATED PRECIPITATION PERCENTAGES FROM THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS... AND CALIBRATED PRECIPITATION FROM THE 0Z OPERATIONAL GFS AND 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN. 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR DEC 19 - 25 2006: FOR WEEK 2 THE GFS SUPERENSMBLE MEAN PREDICTS A SLOW PROGRESSION AND DEAMPLIFICATION OF THE 500-HPA CIRCULATION PATTERN FROM THAT PREDICTED FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD. THE CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN ALSO DEPICTS THE PATTERN TO BE PROGRESSIVE FOR WEEK 2 BUT SHOWS A GREATER DEAMPLIFICATION OF THE PATTERN COMPARED TO THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS. HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST BY THE GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN TO BE ABOVE NORMAL OVER THE NORTHEASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS AND NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN HALF OF THE CONUS AND ALL OF ALASKA. THE CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN DEPICTS ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS OVER MOST OF THE CONUS EXCEPT FOR THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WHERE BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST. THE CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN AGREES WITH THE GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN THAT ALL OF ALASKA WILL HAVE BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS. THE RECENT OPERATIONAL GFS SOLUTIONS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN. THE ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS SHOW GOOD CONTINUITY WITH RESPECT TO THEIR FORECASTS FROM YESTERDAY WHILE THE RECENT OPERATIONAL GFS SOLUTIONS DEPICT SOMEWHAT LOWER HEIGHTS OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS IN TODAYS PROGS. DUE TO A LACK OF ARCTIC AIR INTRUSIONS FROM CANADA MUCH OF THE CONUS IS EXPECTED TO HAVE NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES DURING THE PERIOD. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY WHERE A WEAK TROUGH AND ITS AREA OF ASSOCIATED BELOW NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS MAY LEAD TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. PRECIPITATION OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST CONUS IS FORECAST TO BE ABOVE NORMAL DUE TO MOIST FLOW AHEAD OF THE WEST/CENTRAL U.S. TROUGH. THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA ARE ALSO FAVORED TO HAVE ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION AS STORMS CONTINUE TO MOVE ONSHORE FROM THE EAST PACIFIC. THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY HEIGHT PROG CONSISTS OF 10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 0Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 11...5 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 6Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 11...15 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...15 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...30 PERCENT OF TODAY'S GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...AND 25 PERCENT OF TODAY'S CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11. FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD IS ABOVE AVERAGE... 4 ON A SCALE OF 1 TO 5 DUE TO GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT AND CONTINUITY AND FAIR AGREEMENT AMONG THE FORECAST TOOLS. THE 8-14 DAY TEMPERATURE PROG IS BASED ON THE KLEIN... NEURAL NET AND ANALOG SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE BLENDED HEIGHT FIELD... BIAS-CORRECTED 850-HPA TEMPERATURES FROM THE OPERATIONAL 0Z GFS... THE CDC FORECAST TOOL... THE CPC AUTO FORECAST... THE UNCALIBRATED AND CALIBRATED 2-METER TEMPERATURES FROM THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN AND THE KLEIN AND NEURAL NET PERCENTAGES FROM THE GFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLES. THE 8-14 DAY PRECIPITATION PROG IS BASED ON THE ANALOG AND NEURAL NET SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICAL BLENDED HEIGHTS... THE CPC AUTO FORECAST... THE CDC FORECAST TOOL... CPC AND EMC CALIBRATED PRECIPITATION PERCENTAGES FROM THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS... AND CALIBRATED PRECIPITATION FROM THE 0Z OPERATIONAL GFS AND 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN. FORECASTER: R. SCHECHTER NOTES: OPERATIONAL CHANGE: AS OF JULY 5 2005 SHADED MAPS HAVE REPLACED THE CONTOUR-ONLY MAPS ON THE CPC WEB SITE. THE CONTOURED MAPS ARE STILL AVAILABLE AT THEIR CURRENT FILE NAMES - SO DIRECT-LINKED USERS ARE NOT AFFECTED. AWIPS GRAPHICS ARE ALSO NOT AFFECTED BY THIS CHANGE. AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OTHERWISE - FORECASTS INCORPORATE FORECASTER INPUT. THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION. THE NARRATIVE DESCRIPTION OF THE FORECAST PATTERNS FOR TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION FOR BOTH THE 6-10 OR 8-14 DAY PERIODS HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. THE STATE TABLES FOR BOTH THE 6-10 AND 8-14 DAY PERIODS ARE NOW CONTAINED IN THIS MESSAGE...AVAILABLE AS PMDMRD ON AWIPS. THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1971-2000 BASE PERIOD MEANS FOR TEMPERATURE...PRECIPITATION...AND 500-HPA HEIGHTS AS REFERENCE IN THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS. THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON DECEMBER 21. NEW NOTE EFFECTIVE MAR 16 2004: THE GLOSSARY FORMERLY FOUND AT THIS LOCATION WILL NO LONGER BE TRANSMITTED AS PART OF THIS MESSAGE. IF YOU WISH TO SEE THE DEFINITIONS OF TERMS USED IN THESE MESSAGES... PLEASE GO TO THE CPC WEB PAGE AT (USE LOWER CASE) HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV AND FOLLOW THE APPROPRIATE LINKS. ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3) FOR THE REGION FROM 20N to 70N LATITUDE AND 175E to 60W LONGITUDE INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 19751221 - 19881202 - 19601210 - 19851204 - 19911224 ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4) FOR THE REGION FROM 20N to 70N LATITUDE AND 175E to 60W LONGITUDE INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 19881202 - 19751220 - 19861214 - 19601209 - 19531217 6 to 10 day Outlook Table OUTLOOK FOR DEC 17 - 21, 2006 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON B A OREGON B A NRN CALIF B A SRN CALIF B N IDAHO N N NEVADA B N W MONTANA N N E MONTANA N N WYOMING N N UTAH B N ARIZONA B N COLORADO N N NEW MEXICO N N N DAKOTA N N S DAKOTA A N NEBRASKA A N KANSAS A A OKLAHOMA A A N TEXAS A A S TEXAS A N W TEXAS A N MINNESOTA A A IOWA A A MISSOURI A A ARKANSAS A A LOUISIANA A A WISCONSIN A A ILLINOIS A A MISSISSIPPI A A MICHIGAN A A INDIANA A A OHIO A A KENTUCKY A A TENNESSEE A A ALABAMA A A NEW YORK A N VERMONT A N NEW HAMP A N MAINE A N MASS A N CONN A N RHODE IS A N PENN A N NEW JERSEY A N W VIRGINIA A N MARYLAND A N DELAWARE A N VIRGINIA A N N CAROLINA A N S CAROLINA A N GEORGIA A N FL PNHDL A N FL PENIN A N AK N SLOPE A N AK ALEUTIAN N A AK WESTERN N A AK INT BSN A N AK S INT N A AK SO COAST N A AK PNHDL N N 8 to 14 day Outlook Table OUTLOOK FOR DEC 19 - 25, 2006 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON A A OREGON A A NRN CALIF N A SRN CALIF N N IDAHO N A NEVADA N N W MONTANA A N E MONTANA A N WYOMING N N UTAH N N ARIZONA B B COLORADO N N NEW MEXICO N B N DAKOTA A B S DAKOTA A N NEBRASKA A N KANSAS A N OKLAHOMA N A N TEXAS N A S TEXAS N A W TEXAS N N MINNESOTA A B IOWA A N MISSOURI A N ARKANSAS A A LOUISIANA N A WISCONSIN A N ILLINOIS A N MISSISSIPPI N A MICHIGAN A N INDIANA A N OHIO A A KENTUCKY A A TENNESSEE A A ALABAMA N A NEW YORK A N VERMONT A N NEW HAMP A N MAINE A N MASS A N CONN A N RHODE IS A N PENN A N NEW JERSEY A A W VIRGINIA A A MARYLAND A A DELAWARE A A VIRGINIA A A N CAROLINA A A S CAROLINA A A GEORGIA A A FL PNHDL N N FL PENIN N N AK N SLOPE B B AK ALEUTIAN A N AK WESTERN A N AK INT BSN A N AK S INT A A AK SO COAST N A AK PNHDL N N LEGEND TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN B - BELOW B - BELOW THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS PMDMRD. $$