PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSIONS FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 300 PM EST WED NOV 29 2006 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK VALID FOR DEC 05 - 09 2006 THE AVAILABLE ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT TODAY ON THE EXPECTED 500-HPA FLOW PATTERN ACROSS NORTH AMERICA DURING THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD... AND ARE CONSISTENT WITH YESTERDAYS PATTERNS BUT SOMEWHAT MORE AMPLIFIED... AND A LITTLE MORE PROGRESSIVE. THE GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN AND THE CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN WERE NOT AVAILABLE IN TIME FOR USE IN THE 6-10 DAY FORECAST. YESTERDAYS 18Z OPERATIONAL GFS MODEL WAS THE MOST AMPLIFIED OF ALL THE SOLUTIONS... WITH A VERY STRONG 500-HPA POSITIVE ANOMALY CENTER ASSSOCIATED WITH THE WESTERN NORTH AMERICAN RIDGE LOCATED OVER THE YUKON TERRITORIES AND A BAND OF BELOW NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.S. THE GFS PROGS ARE ALSO BEGINNING TO EXTEND THE AREA OF NEGATIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES EASTWARD ACROSS THE PACIFIC TOWARDS BUT NOT QUITE TO THE U.S. WEST COAST... CONSISTENT WITH TRENDS SHOWN IN THE 8-14 DAY PROGS THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. THE BERMUDA-AZORES SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS NOW SHOWN TO BE CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC... AS HEIGHTS ARE PREDICTED TO CONTINUE TO FALL OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. AND THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WITH THE DEEPENING FULL-LATITUDE TROUGH. HEIGHTS WILL BE GENERALLY BELOW NORMAL OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA AND ACROSS THE NORTH ATLANTIC... GIVING A STRONGLY POSITIVE PHASE TO THE NAO... WHILE THE UPSTREAM PATTERN GIVES AN INCREASINGLY STRONG POSITIVE PNA PATTERN. THEREFORE... ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST ONLY FOR ALASKA AND SMALL PARTS OF MONTANA AND THE WEST COAST... WHILE OTHER AREAS WILL HAVE MOSTLY NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE VERY COLD ARCTIC AIR CURRENTLY ENTERING THE GREAT PLAINS AND MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL BE WELL ESTABLISHED OVER THE EASTERN U.S. BY THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD... AND WILL BE RENEWED BY ADDITIONAL ARCTIC HIGHS PLUNGING SOUTHWARD FROM CANADA INTO THE U.S. THE OVERALL PATTERN LOOKS MORE COLD THAN MILD FOR MOST OF THE CONUS... WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ALSO LIKELY TO PERSIST UNDER THE RIDGE OVER THE GREAT BASIN WITH DEVELOPMENT OF A LOW-LEVEL RADIATION INVERSION... ESPECIALLY AT LOCATIONS WITH FRESH SNOW COVER. WITH ARCTIC AIR IN PLACE OVER MUCH OF THE CONUS... PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIGHT IN MOST PLACES... EXCEPT FOR SOME UPSLOPE AND OVERRUNNING IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOWS. ELSEWHERE... MOST OF ALASKA WILL EXPERIENCE BOTH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION WITH ANOMALOUS SOUTHERLY AND ONSHORE FLOW AFFECTING MUCH OF THE STATE. TODAYS OFFICIAL 500-HPA BLEND CONSISTS OF 5 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 0Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 8...5 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 6Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 8...5 PERCENT OF YESTERDAY'S OPERATIONAL 12Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 7...5 PERCENT OF YESTERDAY'S OPERATIONAL 18Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 7...5 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL ECMWF CENTERED ON DAY 7...20 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...20 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...5 PERCENT OF YESTERDAY'S 18Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 7...AND 30 PERCENT OF TODAY'S EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 7. MODEL(S) OF THE DAY: ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD IS ABOVE AVERAGE... 4 ON A SCALE OF 1 TO 5 DUE TO MOSTLY GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS... CONSISTENCY WITH YESTERDAYS SOLUTIONS... AND GOOD TELECONNECTIVITY FROM THE POSITIVE ANOMALY CENTER OVER WESTERN CANADA... OFFSET SOMEWHAT BY LACK OF AGREEMENT AMONG SOME OF THE TEMPERATURE TOOLS BASED ON THE OFFICIAL HEIGHT PROG. THE 6-10 DAY TEMPERATURE PROG IS BASED ON THE KLEIN... NEURAL NET... AND ANALOG SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLENDED HEIGHTS AND FROM SOME INDIVIDUAL ECMWF AND GFS MODEL SOLUTIONS... THE CPC AUTO FORECAST... AND THE CALIBRATED AND UNCALIBRATED 2-METER TEMPERATURE FORECASTS FROM THE GFS ENSEMBLES. THE 6-10 DAY PRECIPITATION PROG IS BASED ON THE CPC AUTO FORECAST... NEURAL NET AND ANALOG SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLENDED HEIGHTS... ANALOG SPECIFICATIONS FROM SOME OF THE ENSEMBLE MEANS... CALIBRATED PRECIPITATION FROM THE 0Z AND 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEANS... AND THE EMC CALIBRATED PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES FROM THE GFS ENSEMBLES. THE CPC CALIBRATED PARECIPITAION WAS NOT AVAILABLE DUE TO THE LATENESS OF THE GFS SUPERENSEMBLES. 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR DEC 07 - 13 2006: DURING WEEK 2... MOST OF THE GFS-BASED MODELS INDICATE PROGRESSION OF THE MAIN FEATURES SHOWN FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD... AND ARE REASONABLY CONSISTENT WITH YESTERDAYS PROGS. HOWEVER... THERE IS A GREATER UNCERTAINTY TODAY ON JUST HOW PROGRESSIVE THE PATTERN WILL BE... WITH THE LASTEST 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN MOVING THE POSITIVE 500-HPA ANOMALY CENTER AS FAR EAST AS CENTRAL CANADA... WHILE YESTERDAYS 12Z AND 18Z RUNS SHOW ONLY SLIGHT PROGRESSION. THE OPERATIONAL GFS RUNS HAVE AN EVEN GREATER SPREAD. SOME DO NOT EVEN RESEMBLE THE ENSEMBLE MEANS THEY ARE A MEMBER OF. THE AREA OF STRONG CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE WESTERN PACIFIC IS EXPECTED TO EXPAND EASTWARD INTO SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL CALIFORNIA... AND A VERY EL NINO-LIKE PATTERN IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP WITH A SUBTROPICAL JET CONTINUING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN U.S. SOUTH OF A RIDGE AND POSITIVE ANOMALY CENTER OVER THE CANADIAN PRIAIRIES... WHILE A TROUGH REMAINS NEAR THE EAST COAST. THE OVERALL PROGRESSION OF THE LONG WAVE PATTERN APPEARS REASONABLE... GIVEN THE FASTER THAN NORMAL MIDDLE LATITUDE WESTERLIES OVER BOTH THE ATLANTIC AND PACIFIC OCEANS... AND THE GENERALLY PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF RECENTLY OBSERVED PATTERNS. THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY HEIGHT PROG CONSISTS OF 5 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 0Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 11...5 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 6Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 11...15 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...15 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...10 PERCENT OF YESTERDAY'S 12Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 10...10 PERCENT OF YESTERDAY'S 18Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 10...AND 40 PERCENT OF TODAY'S GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11. FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD IS NEAR AVERAGE TODAY... 3 ON A SCALE OF 1 TO 5... DUE TO GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG MOST OF THE ENSEMBLES AND CONSISTENCY WITH YESTERDAYS SOLUTIONS... OFFSET BY SOME STRONG OUTLIERS AMONG THE OPERATIONAL GFS RUNS AND DIFFERENCES AMONG THE TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TOOLS BASED ON THE OFFICIAL PROG. THE 8-14 DAY TEMPERATURE PROG IS BASED ON THE KLEIN... NEURAL NET... AND ANALOG SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLENDED HEIGHT PROG AND FROM INDIVIDUAL GFS SOLUTIONS ... AND THE CPC AUTO FORECAST. SOME CONSIDERATION WAS GIVEN TO THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CALIBRATED AND UNCALIBRATED 2-METER TEMPERATURE FORECASTS. THE 8-14 DAY PRECIPITATION PROG IS BASED ON THE CPC AUTO FORECAST... ANALOG AND NEURAL NET SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLENDED HEIGHTS... ANALOG SPEICIFICATIONS FROM SOME OF THE MODELS AND ENSEMBLE MEANS... CALIBRATED PRECIPITATION FROM THE 0Z AND 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEANS... AND THE CPC AND EMC CALIBRATED PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES FROM THE GFS ENSEMBLES. FORECASTER: WAGNER NOTES: OPERATIONAL CHANGE: AS OF JULY 5 2005 SHADED MAPS HAVE REPLACED THE CONTOUR-ONLY MAPS ON THE CPC WEB SITE. THE CONTOURED MAPS ARE STILL AVAILABLE AT THEIR CURRENT FILE NAMES - SO DIRECT-LINKED USERS ARE NOT AFFECTED. AWIPS GRAPHICS ARE ALSO NOT AFFECTED BY THIS CHANGE. AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OTHERWISE - FORECASTS INCORPORATE FORECASTER INPUT. THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION. THE NARRATIVE DESCRIPTION OF THE FORECAST PATTERNS FOR TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION FOR BOTH THE 6-10 OR 8-14 DAY PERIODS HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. THE STATE TABLES FOR BOTH THE 6-10 AND 8-14 DAY PERIODS ARE NOW CONTAINED IN THIS MESSAGE...AVAILABLE AS PMDMRD ON AWIPS. THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1971-2000 BASE PERIOD MEANS FOR TEMPERATURE...PRECIPITATION...AND 500-HPA HEIGHTS AS REFERENCE IN THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS. THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON DECEMBER 21. AN UPDATED FORECAST FOR THE MONTH OF DECEMBER WILL BE RELEASED THIS THURSDAY... NOV 30. NEW NOTE EFFECTIVE MAR 16 2004: THE GLOSSARY FORMERLY FOUND AT THIS LOCATION WILL NO LONGER BE TRANSMITTED AS PART OF THIS MESSAGE. IF YOU WISH TO SEE THE DEFINITIONS OF TERMS USED IN THESE MESSAGES... PLEASE GO TO THE CPC WEB PAGE AT (USE LOWER CASE) HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV AND FOLLOW THE APPROPRIATE LINKS. ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3) FOR THE REGION FROM 20N to 70N LATITUDE AND 175E to 60W LONGITUDE INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 19941203 - 19851118 - 19561206 - 19711208 - 19661122 ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4) FOR THE REGION FROM 20N to 70N LATITUDE AND 175E to 60W LONGITUDE INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 19941203 - 19661122 - 19701129 - 19561206 - 19851118 6 to 10 day Outlook Table OUTLOOK FOR DEC 05 - 09, 2006 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON B B OREGON B B NRN CALIF A B SRN CALIF N B IDAHO B B NEVADA B B W MONTANA B B E MONTANA A B WYOMING N B UTAH B B ARIZONA N B COLORADO B N NEW MEXICO B N N DAKOTA N B S DAKOTA N B NEBRASKA N B KANSAS B B OKLAHOMA B N N TEXAS B N S TEXAS B A W TEXAS B A MINNESOTA B B IOWA B B MISSOURI B B ARKANSAS B B LOUISIANA B N WISCONSIN B B ILLINOIS B B MISSISSIPPI B N MICHIGAN B N INDIANA B B OHIO B B KENTUCKY B B TENNESSEE B B ALABAMA B N NEW YORK B B VERMONT B B NEW HAMP B B MAINE B B MASS B B CONN B B RHODE IS B B PENN B B NEW JERSEY B B W VIRGINIA B B MARYLAND B B DELAWARE B B VIRGINIA B B N CAROLINA B N S CAROLINA B N GEORGIA B N FL PNHDL B B FL PENIN N B AK N SLOPE A N AK ALEUTIAN A A AK WESTERN A A AK INT BSN A N AK S INT A A AK SO COAST A A AK PNHDL A N 8 to 14 day Outlook Table OUTLOOK FOR DEC 07 - 13, 2006 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON N N OREGON N A NRN CALIF N A SRN CALIF A A IDAHO B N NEVADA N A W MONTANA N B E MONTANA A B WYOMING A B UTAH B N ARIZONA N N COLORADO N N NEW MEXICO N N N DAKOTA A B S DAKOTA A B NEBRASKA A B KANSAS N N OKLAHOMA B N N TEXAS B A S TEXAS B A W TEXAS B N MINNESOTA A B IOWA N B MISSOURI N B ARKANSAS B N LOUISIANA B A WISCONSIN N B ILLINOIS N B MISSISSIPPI B N MICHIGAN N B INDIANA B B OHIO B B KENTUCKY B B TENNESSEE B N ALABAMA B N NEW YORK B B VERMONT B B NEW HAMP B B MAINE B B MASS B B CONN B B RHODE IS B B PENN B B NEW JERSEY B B W VIRGINIA B B MARYLAND B B DELAWARE B B VIRGINIA B B N CAROLINA B B S CAROLINA B B GEORGIA B N FL PNHDL B N FL PENIN N N AK N SLOPE N N AK ALEUTIAN N A AK WESTERN A N AK INT BSN A N AK S INT A A AK SO COAST A A AK PNHDL A N LEGEND TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN B - BELOW B - BELOW THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS PMDMRD. $$