PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSIONS FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 300 PM EST TUE NOV 28 2006 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK VALID FOR DEC 04 - 08 2006 TODAYS ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE EXPECTED 500-HPA FLOW PATTERN ACROSS NORTH AMERICA DURING THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD... AND ONLY THE CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN HAS A NOTICEABLY DIFFERENT PHASING... WITH THE MAIN FEATURES OF THE WAVETRAIN SOMEWHAT FURTHER TO THE WEST THAN THE OTHER MODELS. THE AMPLITUDE OF THE ANOMALIES PREDICTED BY THE GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN IS ABOUT THE SAME AS THAT OF THE OTHER ENSEMBLE MEANS... WHICH ALSO SUGGESTS MORE CONFIDENCE AND CONSISTENCY IN TODAYS RUNS. THE 0Z OPERATIONAL GFS PREDICTED THE NORTHERN PART OF THE RIDGE OVER WESTERN CANADA TO BE NOTICEABLY MORE AMPLIFIED THAN THE ENSEMBLES OR OTHER OPERATIONAL RUNS. THE 6-10 DAY OFFICIAL BLENDED HEIGHT CHART IS QUITE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAYS... AND INDICATES THAT THE AMPLIFIED TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING INTO THE WEST AND THE STRONGLY AMPLIFIED RIDGE BEHIND IT WILL BOTH MOVE EASTWARD... WITH THE RIDGE AND ITS ASSOCIATED POSITIVE ANOMALY CENTER ENDING UP OVER WESTERN CANADA AND THE TROUGH AXIS ALIGNED FROM EASTERN CANADA SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE APPALACHIANS. OVERALL... THE PATTERN IS SOMEWHAT MORE AMPLIFIED TODAY THAN IT WAS YESTERDAY. THE BERMUDA-AZORES SUBROPICAL RIDGE IS NOW PREDICTED TO BE ENTIRELY POSITIONED ACROSS THE SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC... AS HEIGHTS FALL OVER FLORIDA WITH THE DEEPENING FULL-LATITUDE TROUGH. HEIGHTS WILL BE GENERALLY BELOW NORMAL OVER EASTERN CANADA AND ACROSS THE NORTH ATLANTIC... GIVING A STRONGLY POSITIVE PHASE TO THE NAO... WHILE THE UPSTREAM PATTERN GIVES AN INCREASINGLY POSITIVE PNA PATTERN. THEREFORE... ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST ONLY FOR ALASKA AND A SMALL PART OF MONTANA... WHILE OTHER AREAS WILL HAVE MOSTLY NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE VERY COLD ARCTIC AIR CURRENTLY ENTERING THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS WILL BE SOMEWHAT MODIFIED BY THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD... BUT IT IS LIKELY TO BE RENEWED BY ADDITIONAL ARCTIC HIGHS AND THE OVERALL PATTERN LOOKS MORE COLD THAN MILD FOR MOST OF THE CONUS. DEPENDING ON WHERE SNOW COVER IS ESTABLISHED IN THE WEST... BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO PERSIST UNDER THE RIDGE WITH DEVELOPMENT OF A LOW-LEVEL RADIATION INVERSION. WITH ARCTIC AIR IN PLACE OVER MUCH OF THE CONUS... PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIGHT IN MOST PLACES... EXCEPT FOR SOME UPSLOPE AND OVERRUNNING IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. ELSEWHERE... MOST OF ALASKA WILL EXPERIENCE BOTH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION WITH ANOMALOUS SOUTHERLY AND ONSHORE FLOW AFFECTING MUCH OF THE STATE. TODAYS OFFICIAL 500-HPA BLEND CONSISTS OF 5 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 0Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 8...5 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 6Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 8...10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL ECMWF CENTERED ON DAY 7...5 PERCENT OF TODAY'S DAVA CENTERED ON DAY 8...10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...30 PERCENT OF TODAY'S GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...AND 25 PERCENT OF TODAY'S EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 7. MODEL(S) OF THE DAY: GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD IS ABOVE AVERAGE... 4 ON A SCALE OF 1 TO 5 DUE TO MOSTLY GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS... CONSISTENCY WITH YESTERDAYS SOLUTIONS... AND GOOD TELECONNECTIVITY FROM THE POSITIVE ANOMALY CENTER OVER WESTERN CANADA... OFFSET SOMEWHAT BY LACK OF AGREEMENT AMONG SOME OF THE TEMPERATURE TOOLS BASED ON THE OFFICIAL HEIGHT PROG. THE 6-10 DAY TEMPERATURE PROG IS BASED ON THE KLEIN... NEURAL NET... AND ANALOG SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLENDED HEIGHTS AND FROM SOME INDIVIDUAL ECMWF AND GFS MODEL SOLUTIONS... AND THE CPC AUTO FORECAST. SOME CONSIDERATION WAS ALSO GIVEN TO THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN 2-METER CALIBRATED TEMPERATURE FORECAST. THE 6-10 DAY PRECIPITATION PROG IS BASED ON THE CPC AUTO FORECAST... NEURAL NET AND ANALOG SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLENDED HEIGHTS... ANALOG SPECIFICATIONS FROM SOME OF THE ENSEMBLE MEANS... CALIBRATED PRECIPITATION FROM THE 0Z AND 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEANS... AND THE CPC AND EMC CALIBRATED PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES FROM THE GFS ENSEMBLES. 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR DEC 06 - 12 2006: DURING WEEK 2... MOST OF THE GFS-BASED MODELS INDICATE A REASONABLE PROGRESSION OF THE MAIN FEATURES SHOWN ON THE MAP FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD... AND ARE VERY CONSISTENT WITH YESTERDAYS PROGS. THE AREA OF STRONG CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE WESTERN PACIFIC IS EXPECTED TO EXPAND EASTWARD TO NEAR THE PACIFIC COAST... PUSHING THE RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED AREA OF POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY EASTWARD TO THE NORTHERN U.S. PLAINS AND THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES. THE TROUGH PREDICTED OVER THE GREAT LAKES IS EXPECTED TO PROGRESS TO THE NEW ENGLAND COAST... WHILE 500-HPA HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN U.S. OUTLIERS... WHICH WERE MORE OR LESS DISREGARDED... WERE THE CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN... WHICH RETROGRADED THE WHOLE PATTERN... AND YESTERDAYS 12Z AND 18Z GFS OPERATIONAL RUNS... WHICH SHOWED LITTLE OR NO PROGRESSION. NEITHER RETROGRESSION NOR A STRONG PERSISTENCE OF THE MEAN PATTERN WERE CONSIDERED LIKELY... GIVEN THE FASTER THAN NORMAL MIDDLE LATITUDE WESTERLIES OVER BOTH THE ATLANTIC AND PACIFIC OCEANS... AND THE GENERALLY PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF RECENTLY OBSERVED PATTERNS. THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY HEIGHT PROG CONSISTS OF 5 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 0Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 11...5 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 6Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 11...20 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...20 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...10 PERCENT OF YESTERDAY'S 12Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 10...10 PERCENT OF YESTERDAY'S 18Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 10...AND 30 PERCENT OF TODAY'S GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11. FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD IS ABOVE AVERAGE TODAY... 4 ON A SCALE OF 1 TO 5... DUE TO GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG MOST OF THE MODELS... CONSISTENCY WITH YESTERDAYS SOLUTIONS... AND FAIR AGREEMENT AMONG THE TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TOOLS BASED ON THE OFFICIAL PROG. THE 8-14 DAY TEMPERATURE PROG IS BASED ON THE KLEIN... NEURAL NET... AND ANALOG SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLENDED HEIGHT PROG AND FROM INDIVIDUAL GFS SOLUTIONS ... AND THE CPC AUTO FORECAST. SOME CONSIDERATION WAS GIVEN TO THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CALIBRATED AND UNCALIBRATED 2-METER TEMPERATURE FORECASTS. THE 8-14 DAY PRECIPITATION PROG IS BASED ON THE CPC AUTO FORECAST... ANALOG AND NEURAL NET SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLENDED HEIGHTS... ANALOG SPEICIFICATIONS FROM SOME OF THE MODELS AND ENSEMBLE MEANS... CALIBRATED PRECIPITATION FROM THE 0Z AND 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEANS... AND THE CPC AND EMC CALIBRATED PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES FROM THE GFS ENSEMBLES. FORECASTER: WAGNER NOTES: OPERATIONAL CHANGE: AS OF JULY 5 2005 SHADED MAPS HAVE REPLACED THE CONTOUR-ONLY MAPS ON THE CPC WEB SITE. THE CONTOURED MAPS ARE STILL AVAILABLE AT THEIR CURRENT FILE NAMES - SO DIRECT-LINKED USERS ARE NOT AFFECTED. AWIPS GRAPHICS ARE ALSO NOT AFFECTED BY THIS CHANGE. AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OTHERWISE - FORECASTS INCORPORATE FORECASTER INPUT. THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION. THE NARRATIVE DESCRIPTION OF THE FORECAST PATTERNS FOR TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION FOR BOTH THE 6-10 OR 8-14 DAY PERIODS HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. THE STATE TABLES FOR BOTH THE 6-10 AND 8-14 DAY PERIODS ARE NOW CONTAINED IN THIS MESSAGE...AVAILABLE AS PMDMRD ON AWIPS. THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1971-2000 BASE PERIOD MEANS FOR TEMPERATURE...PRECIPITATION...AND 500-HPA HEIGHTS AS REFERENCE IN THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS. THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON DECEMBER 21. AN UPDATED FORECAST FOR THE MONTH OF DECEMBER WILL BE RELEASED THIS THURSDAY... NOV 30. NEW NOTE EFFECTIVE MAR 16 2004: THE GLOSSARY FORMERLY FOUND AT THIS LOCATION WILL NO LONGER BE TRANSMITTED AS PART OF THIS MESSAGE. IF YOU WISH TO SEE THE DEFINITIONS OF TERMS USED IN THESE MESSAGES... PLEASE GO TO THE CPC WEB PAGE AT (USE LOWER CASE) HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV AND FOLLOW THE APPROPRIATE LINKS. ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3) FOR THE REGION FROM 20N to 70N LATITUDE AND 175E to 60W LONGITUDE INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 19941203 - 19661122 - 19701129 - 19561206 - 19851118 ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4) FOR THE REGION FROM 20N to 70N LATITUDE AND 175E to 60W LONGITUDE INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 19661121 - 19941203 - 19701130 - 19561205 - 19901119 6 to 10 day Outlook Table OUTLOOK FOR DEC 04 - 08, 2006 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON B B OREGON B B NRN CALIF N B SRN CALIF N B IDAHO B B NEVADA B B W MONTANA N B E MONTANA N B WYOMING B N UTAH B B ARIZONA N B COLORADO B N NEW MEXICO B N N DAKOTA N B S DAKOTA N B NEBRASKA B N KANSAS B N OKLAHOMA B N N TEXAS B A S TEXAS B A W TEXAS B A MINNESOTA N B IOWA B B MISSOURI B B ARKANSAS B N LOUISIANA B A WISCONSIN B B ILLINOIS B B MISSISSIPPI B N MICHIGAN B B INDIANA B B OHIO B B KENTUCKY B B TENNESSEE B B ALABAMA B N NEW YORK B B VERMONT B B NEW HAMP B B MAINE B N MASS B B CONN B B RHODE IS B B PENN B B NEW JERSEY B B W VIRGINIA B B MARYLAND B B DELAWARE B B VIRGINIA B N N CAROLINA B N S CAROLINA B N GEORGIA B N FL PNHDL B N FL PENIN N N AK N SLOPE A N AK ALEUTIAN A A AK WESTERN A A AK INT BSN A A AK S INT A A AK SO COAST A A AK PNHDL N A 8 to 14 day Outlook Table OUTLOOK FOR DEC 06 - 12, 2006 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON N N OREGON N A NRN CALIF N A SRN CALIF A N IDAHO B N NEVADA N N W MONTANA N B E MONTANA A B WYOMING A B UTAH N N ARIZONA N N COLORADO N N NEW MEXICO N N N DAKOTA A B S DAKOTA A B NEBRASKA N B KANSAS N N OKLAHOMA B N N TEXAS B A S TEXAS B A W TEXAS B N MINNESOTA N B IOWA N B MISSOURI B B ARKANSAS B N LOUISIANA B N WISCONSIN N B ILLINOIS N B MISSISSIPPI B N MICHIGAN N B INDIANA B B OHIO B B KENTUCKY B B TENNESSEE B B ALABAMA B N NEW YORK B B VERMONT B B NEW HAMP B B MAINE B B MASS B B CONN B B RHODE IS B B PENN B B NEW JERSEY B B W VIRGINIA B B MARYLAND B B DELAWARE B B VIRGINIA B B N CAROLINA B N S CAROLINA B N GEORGIA B N FL PNHDL B N FL PENIN B N AK N SLOPE N N AK ALEUTIAN A N AK WESTERN A N AK INT BSN A N AK S INT A A AK SO COAST A A AK PNHDL A N LEGEND TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN B - BELOW B - BELOW THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS PMDMRD. $$