PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSIONS FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 300 PM EST MON NOV 27 2006 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK VALID FOR DEC 03 - 07 2006 TODAYS ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT ON THE EXPECTED 500-HPA FLOW PATTERN ACROSS NORTH AMERICA DURING THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD... BUT THERE IS A SOMEWHAT GREATER DIFFERENCE IN PHASING THAN IS USUALLY THE CASE FOR THIS TIME PERIOD. THE 12Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN... BOTH THE 0Z AND 12Z ECMWF OPERATIONAL MODEL RUNS... AND THE 0Z OPERATIONAL RUN ALL HAVE THE MAIN FEATURES OF THE WAVETRAIN SOMEWHAT FURTHER TO THE WEST THAN DO THE OTHER MODELS... WHICH ARE SHOWING MORE PROGRESSION. THE GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN SEEMS TO REFLECT SOME OF THIS INHERENT UNCERTAINTY BY HAVING A NOTICEABLY WEAKER ANOMALY PATTERN THAN THE OTHER ENSEMBLE MEANS OR THE OPERATIONAL RUNS... ALTHOUGH ITS PHASE IS THE SAME AS THE MAJORITY OF THE MODELS WITH THE MORE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN. THE 6-10 DAY OFFICIAL BLENDED HEIGHT CHART SHOWS THAT THE AMPLIFIED TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING INTO THE WEST AND THE STRONGLY AMPLIFIED RIDGE BEHIND IT WILL BOTH MOVE EASTWARD... WITH THE RIDGE AND ITS ASSOCIATED POSITIVE ANOMALY CENTER ENDING UP NEAR BRITISH COLUMBIA AND MOST OF THE TROUGH LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD TO THE GREAT LAKES REGION WHILE WEAKENING. THIS LEFT A SMALL LOW LATITUDE TROUGH BEHIND OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA. A WEAK RESIDUAL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER THE SOUTH ATLANTIC STATES... BUT THE MAIN PART OF THE RIDGE WILL BE POSITIONED ACROSS THE SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC. HEIGHTS WILL BE GENERALLY BELOW NORMAL OVER EASTERN CANADA AND ACROSS THE NORTH ATLANTIC... GIVING A STRONGLY POSITIVE PHASE TO THE NAO... WHILE THE UPSTREAM PATTERN GIVES A WEAKLY POSITIVE PNA PATTERN. THEREFORE... ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST ONLY FOR ALASKA AND FOR SMALL PARTS OF THE WEST COAST AND SOUTHEAST... WHILE OTHER AREAS WILL HAVE MOSTLY NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE VERY COLD ARCTIC AIR CURRENTLY ENTERING THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS WILL BE CONSIDERABLY MODIFIED BY THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD... BUT OVERALL THE PATTERN LOOKS MORE COOL THAN MILD FOR MOST OF THE CONUS. DEPENDING ON WHERE SNOW COVER IS ESTABLISHED IN THE WEST... BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES COULD PERSIST UNDER THE RIDGE WITH DEVELOPMENT OF A LOW-LEVEL RADIATION INVERSION. SOME PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE MIDDLE OF THE CONUS NEAR THE AXIS OF THE POSITIVE-TILTING TROUGH THAT DOMINATES THE AREA WHILE ELSEWHERE... MOST OF ALASKA WILL EXPERIENCE BOTH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION WITH ANOMALOUS SOUTHERLY AND ONSHORE FLOW AFFECTING MOST AREAS OF THE STATE. TODAYS OFFICIAL 500-HPA BLEND CONSISTS OF 10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 6Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 8...10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL ECMWF CENTERED ON DAY 7...10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...30 PERCENT OF TODAY'S GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...AND 20 PERCENT OF TODAY'S EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 7. MODEL(S) OF THE DAY: GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD IS AVERAGE... 3 ON A SCALE OF 1 TO 5 DUE TO MODEST DIFFERNCES IN PHASING OF SOME OF THE MODEL SOLUTIONS... AND LACK OF AGREEMENT AMONG SOME OF THE TEMPERATURE TOOLS BASED ON THE OFFICIAL HEIGHT PROG. THE 6-10 DAY TEMPERATURE PROG IS BASED ON THE KLEIN... NEURAL NET... AND ANALOG SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLENDED HEIGHTS AND FROM SOME INDIVIDUAL ECMWF AND GFS MODEL SOLUTIONS... THE CPC AUTO FORECAST... AND THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN 2-METER CALIBRATED TEMPERATURE FORECAST. THE 6-10 DAY PRECIPITATION PROG IS BASED ON THE CPC AUTO FORECAST... NEURAL NET AND ANALOG SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLENDED HEIGHTS... CALIBRATED PRECIPITATION FROM THE 0Z AND 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEANS... AND THE CPC AND EMC CALIBRATED PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES FROM THE GFS ENSEMBLES. 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR DEC 05 - 11 2006: DURING WEEK 2... MOST OF THE GFS-BASED MODELS INDICATE A REASONABLE PROGRESSION OF THE MAIN FEATURES SHOWN ON THE MAP FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD. THE AREA OF STRONG CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE WESTERN PACIFIC IS EXPECTED TO EXPAND EASTWARD... PUSHING THE RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED AREA OF POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY EASTWARD FROM THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST TO THE NORTHERN U.S. PLAINS AND THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES. THE TROUGH PREDICTED OVER THE GREAT LAKES IS EXPECTED TO PROGRESS TO THE NEW ENGLAND COAST... WHILE 500-HPA HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN U.S. OUTLIERS... WHICH WERE MORE OR LESS DISREGARDED... WERE THE CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN... WHICH PERSISTED A STRONGLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN SIMILAR TO WHAT MOST MODELS WERE SHOWING FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD... AND YESTERDAYS 12Z OPERATIONAL GFS RUN AND CORRESPONDING ENSEMBLE MEAN... WHICH HAD TROUGHS OVER THE WESTERN AND THE CENTRAL U.S. ... RESPECTIVELY. NEITHER RETROGRESSION NOR A STRONG PERSISTNECE OF THE MEAN PATTERN WERE CONSIDERED LIKELY... GIVEN THE FASTER THAN NORMAL MIDDLE LATITUDE WESTERLIES OVER BOTH THE ATLANTIC AND PACIFIC OCEANS... AND THE GENERALLY PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF RECENTLY OBSERVED PATTERNS. THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY HEIGHT PROG CONSISTS OF 15 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...25 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...20 PERCENT OF YESTERDAY'S 18Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 10...AND 40 PERCENT OF TODAY'S GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11. FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD IS AVERAGE TODAY... 3 ON A SCALE OF 1 TO 5... DUE TO GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG MOST OF THE MODELS AND FAIR AGREEMENT AMONG THE TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TOOLS BASED ON THE OFFICIAL PROG. THE 8-14 DAY TEMPERATURE PROG IS BASED ON THE KLEIN... NEURAL NET... AND ANALOG SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLENDED HEIGHTS AND FROM INDIVIDUAL GFS SOLUTIONS ... AND THE CPC AUTO FORECAST. THE 8-14 DAY PRECIPITATION PROG IS BASED ON THE CPC AUTO FORECAST... ANALOG AND NEURAL NET SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLENDED HEIGHTS... CALIBRATED PRECIPITATION FROM THE 0Z AND 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEANS... AND THE CPC AND EMC CALIBRATED PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES FROM THE GFS ENSEMBLES. FORECASTER: WAGNER NOTES: OPERATIONAL CHANGE: AS OF JULY 5 2005 SHADED MAPS HAVE REPLACED THE CONTOUR-ONLY MAPS ON THE CPC WEB SITE. THE CONTOURED MAPS ARE STILL AVAILABLE AT THEIR CURRENT FILE NAMES - SO DIRECT-LINKED USERS ARE NOT AFFECTED. AWIPS GRAPHICS ARE ALSO NOT AFFECTED BY THIS CHANGE. AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OTHERWISE - FORECASTS INCORPORATE FORECASTER INPUT. THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION. THE NARRATIVE DESCRIPTION OF THE FORECAST PATTERNS FOR TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION FOR BOTH THE 6-10 OR 8-14 DAY PERIODS HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. THE STATE TABLES FOR BOTH THE 6-10 AND 8-14 DAY PERIODS ARE NOW CONTAINED IN THIS MESSAGE...AVAILABLE AS PMDMRD ON AWIPS. THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1971-2000 BASE PERIOD MEANS FOR TEMPERATURE...PRECIPITATION...AND 500-HPA HEIGHTS AS REFERENCE IN THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS. THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON DECEMBER 21. AN UPDATED FORECAST FOR THE MONTH OF DECEMBER WILL BE RELEASED THIS THURSDAY... NOV 30. NEW NOTE EFFECTIVE MAR 16 2004: THE GLOSSARY FORMERLY FOUND AT THIS LOCATION WILL NO LONGER BE TRANSMITTED AS PART OF THIS MESSAGE. IF YOU WISH TO SEE THE DEFINITIONS OF TERMS USED IN THESE MESSAGES... PLEASE GO TO THE CPC WEB PAGE AT (USE LOWER CASE) HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV AND FOLLOW THE APPROPRIATE LINKS. ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3) FOR THE REGION FROM 20N to 70N LATITUDE AND 175E to 60W LONGITUDE INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 19661121 - 19701130 - 19941203 - 19901119 - 19561205 ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4) FOR THE REGION FROM 20N to 70N LATITUDE AND 175E to 60W LONGITUDE INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 19661121 - 19701201 - 19941203 - 19731130 - 19501115 6 to 10 day Outlook Table OUTLOOK FOR DEC 03 - 07, 2006 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON B B OREGON B B NRN CALIF N B SRN CALIF N B IDAHO B B NEVADA N B W MONTANA B B E MONTANA N B WYOMING B B UTAH B B ARIZONA N B COLORADO B A NEW MEXICO B A N DAKOTA N B S DAKOTA N B NEBRASKA B B KANSAS B N OKLAHOMA B A N TEXAS B A S TEXAS B A W TEXAS B A MINNESOTA B B IOWA B B MISSOURI B N ARKANSAS B N LOUISIANA B A WISCONSIN B B ILLINOIS B N MISSISSIPPI B A MICHIGAN B N INDIANA B N OHIO B N KENTUCKY B N TENNESSEE B N ALABAMA B A NEW YORK B N VERMONT B N NEW HAMP B N MAINE N N MASS N N CONN N N RHODE IS N N PENN B N NEW JERSEY N N W VIRGINIA B N MARYLAND B N DELAWARE N N VIRGINIA B N N CAROLINA N N S CAROLINA N A GEORGIA N A FL PNHDL N N FL PENIN A N AK N SLOPE N N AK ALEUTIAN A A AK WESTERN A A AK INT BSN A A AK S INT A A AK SO COAST A A AK PNHDL N A 8 to 14 day Outlook Table OUTLOOK FOR DEC 05 - 11, 2006 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON N N OREGON N B NRN CALIF N B SRN CALIF A B IDAHO N B NEVADA N B W MONTANA N B E MONTANA A B WYOMING N B UTAH B B ARIZONA N N COLORADO N N NEW MEXICO B N N DAKOTA A B S DAKOTA A B NEBRASKA A B KANSAS A B OKLAHOMA N N N TEXAS B A S TEXAS B A W TEXAS B A MINNESOTA A B IOWA A B MISSOURI N B ARKANSAS N N LOUISIANA B N WISCONSIN A B ILLINOIS N B MISSISSIPPI B N MICHIGAN N B INDIANA N B OHIO N B KENTUCKY B B TENNESSEE B N ALABAMA B N NEW YORK B B VERMONT B N NEW HAMP B N MAINE B N MASS B B CONN B B RHODE IS B B PENN B B NEW JERSEY B B W VIRGINIA B N MARYLAND B N DELAWARE B N VIRGINIA B N N CAROLINA B A S CAROLINA B A GEORGIA B N FL PNHDL B N FL PENIN N N AK N SLOPE N N AK ALEUTIAN N A AK WESTERN A A AK INT BSN A A AK S INT A A AK SO COAST A A AK PNHDL A A LEGEND TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN B - BELOW B - BELOW THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS PMDMRD. $$