PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSIONS FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 300 PM EST FRI NOV 24 2006 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK VALID FOR NOV 30 - DEC 04, 2006 TODAYS ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT ON THE EXPECTED 500-HPA FLOW PATTERN ACROSS NORTH AMERICA DURING THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD. ALL THE ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS INDICATE THAT A MODERATELY DEEP TROUGH WILL DOMINATE THE CENTRAL OR EASTERN U.S. BUT DIFFERENCES EXIST ON THE LOCATION OF THE TROUGH AXIS. THE VARIOUS GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS PREDICT THAT THE 500-HPA TROUGH WILL BE CENTERED NEAR THE EAST COAST WHILE THE 12Z ECMWF PREDICTS A LESS PROGRESSIVE SOLUTION WITH THE 500-HPA TROUGH AXIS OVER THE PLAINS. ITS IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT THE OPERATIONAL RUN OF THE 0Z ECMWF CUTS OFF A MID-LEVEL LOW ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. THIS SOLUTION IS REASONABLE DUE TO THE RECENT DEVELOPEMENT OF CUT-OFF LOWS OVER THE LOW LATITUDES OF THE CONUS. THE LONGWAVE WEATHER PATTERN FAVORS A SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR ENTERING THE CONUS NEXT WEEK. CURRENT TEMPERATURES ARE AROUND -40 DEGREES F IN NORTHWEST CANADA. DUE TO A LACK OF SNOW COVERAGE ACROSS THE HIGH LATITUDES OF NORTH AMERICA... THE ARCTIC AIR WILL LIKELY MODIFY AS IT SPREADS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.S. NEVERTHELESS... BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST FOR THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND GULF COAST STATES. FARTHER NORTH... A GRADUAL MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED AND THUS NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED FOR THE NORTHERN ROCKIES... NORTHERN PLAINS... AND UPPER MIDWEST. THE 6-10 DAY OFFICIAL BLENDED HEIGHT CHART INDICATES THE LARGEST 500-HPA POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THAT SHOULD SLOW THE PROGRESSION OF THE MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR. THEREFORE... ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST FOR NEW ENGLAND. HOWEVER... SHARPLY COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY REACH NEW ENGLAND DURING THE FIRST WEEKEND OF DECEMBER. AS THE STRONG CANADIAN HIGH (1040 HPA OR GREATER) BECOMES CENTERED OVER THE ROCKIES... OFFSHORE FLOW SHOULD LEAD TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. AFTER SEVERAL WEEKS OF BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES IN EASTERN ALASKA... A MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED. A SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT ALONG WITH ABUNDANT GULF MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR THE NORTHEAST AND MID-ATLANTIC. BEHIND THE ARCTIC FRONT... DRY CONTINENTAL AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL U.S. WHERE BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY. FOLLOWING A RECORD SETTING WET NOVEMBER ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST... A MAJORITY OF FORECAST TOOLS SUGGEST THAT PRECIPITATION WILL BE AT OR BELOW NORMAL FOR THE REGION DURING THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD. ELSEWHERE... MUCH OF ALASKA WILL EXPERIENCE ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION. TODAYS OFFICIAL 500-HPA BLEND CONSISTS OF 10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL ECMWF CENTERED ON DAY 7...10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...30 PERCENT OF TODAY'S GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...20 PERCENT OF TODAY'S CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...AND 20 PERCENT OF TODAY'S EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 7. MODEL(S) OF THE DAY: GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD IS AVERAGE... 3 ON A SCALE OF 1 TO 5 DUE TO FAIR AGREEMENT AMONG THE ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS. THE 6-10 DAY TEMPERATURE PROG IS BASED ON THE KLEIN... NEURAL NET... AND ANALOG SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLENDED HEIGHTS AND FROM INDIVIDUAL ECMWF AND GFS MODEL SOLUTIONS... THE CPC AUTO FORECAST... AND THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN 2-METER CALIBRATED TEMPERATURE FORECAST. THE 6-10 DAY PRECIPITATION PROG IS BASED ON THE CPC AUTO FORECAST... NEURAL NET AND ANALOG SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLENDED HEIGHTS... CALIBRATED PRECIPITATION FROM THE 0Z AND 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEANS... AND THE CPC AND EMC CALIBRATED PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES FROM THE GFS ENSEMBLES. 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR DEC 02 - 08 2006: DURING WEEK 2... THE EXPECTED 500-HPA FLOW PATTERN FEATURES ONE AREA OF DOMINANT POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC (40N-50W). COMPARISON OF THE OFFICIAL BLENDED HEIGHT CHARTS FROM DAYS 6-10 AND WEEK 2 INDICATES AN EASTWARD SHIFT OF THESE POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES TOWARD GREENLAND. THE CURRENT NORTH ATLANTIC OSCILLATION (NAO) INDEX IS NEUTRAL... BUT A SHIFT IN THE BLOCKING RIDGE TOWARDS THE NORTH ATLANTIC WOULD LIKELY RESULT IN A NEGATIVE NAO INDEX. A NEGATIVE PHASE OF THE NAO IS TYPICALLY ASSOCIATED WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE EAST. TODAYS OFFICIAL BLENDED CHART SHOWS SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS ACROSS THE EAST AND THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE CONUS. THEREFORE... BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST FOR THE EAST AND SOUTH WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES LIMITED TO THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND CALIFORNIA. ELSEWHERE... ALASKA SHOULD REMAIN WARMER THAN NORMAL. A MAJORITY OF PRECIPITATION TOOLS FORECAST DRIER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THE CONUS EXCEPT FOR THE NORTHEAST WHERE ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEANS INDICATE THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SPLIT FLOW PATTERN ENTERING WESTERN NORTH AMERICA. IF THE SOUTHERN STREAM BECOMES MORE ACTIVE... THEN THE SOUTHWEST AND TEXAS COULD EXPERIENCE A TREND TOWARDS ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION. ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION SHOULD ALSO ACCOMPANY THE MILD TEMPERATURES ACROSS ALASKA. THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY HEIGHT PROG CONSISTS OF 20 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...20 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...40 PERCENT OF TODAY'S GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...AND 20 PERCENT OF TODAY'S CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11. FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD IS AVERAGE TODAY... 3 ON A SCALE OF 1 TO 5... DUE TO GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE PRECIPITATION TOOLS OFFSET BY POOR AGREEMENT AMONG THE TEMPERATURE TOOLS. THE 8-14 DAY TEMPERATURE PROG IS BASED ON THE KLEIN... NEURAL NET... AND ANALOG SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLENDED HEIGHTS AND FROM INDIVIDUAL GFS SOLUTIONS ... AND THE CPC AUTO FORECAST. THE 8-14 DAY PRECIPITATION PROG IS BASED ON THE CPC AUTO FORECAST... ANALOG AND NEURAL NET SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLENDED HEIGHTS... CALIBRATED PRECIPITATION FROM THE 0Z AND 6Z GFS... CALIBRATED PRECIPITATION FROM THE 0Z AND 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN... AND THE CPC AND EMC CALIBRATED PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES FROM THE GFS ENSEMBLES. FORECASTER: PUGH NOTES: OPERATIONAL CHANGE: AS OF JULY 5 2005 SHADED MAPS HAVE REPLACED THE CONTOUR-ONLY MAPS ON THE CPC WEB SITE. THE CONTOURED MAPS ARE STILL AVAILABLE AT THEIR CURRENT FILE NAMES - SO DIRECT-LINKED USERS ARE NOT AFFECTED. AWIPS GRAPHICS ARE ALSO NOT AFFECTED BY THIS CHANGE. AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OTHERWISE - FORECASTS INCORPORATE FORECASTER INPUT. THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION. THE NARRATIVE DESCRIPTION OF THE FORECAST PATTERNS FOR TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION FOR BOTH THE 6-10 OR 8-14 DAY PERIODS HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. THE STATE TABLES FOR BOTH THE 6-10 AND 8-14 DAY PERIODS ARE NOW CONTAINED IN THIS MESSAGE...AVAILABLE AS PMDMRD ON AWIPS. THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1971-2000 BASE PERIOD MEANS FOR TEMPERATURE...PRECIPITATION...AND 500-HPA HEIGHTS AS REFERENCE IN THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS. THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON DECEMBER 21. NEW NOTE EFFECTIVE MAR 16 2004: THE GLOSSARY FORMERLY FOUND AT THIS LOCATION WILL NO LONGER BE TRANSMITTED AS PART OF THIS MESSAGE. IF YOU WISH TO SEE THE DEFINITIONS OF TERMS USED IN THESE MESSAGES... PLEASE GO TO THE CPC WEB PAGE AT (USE LOWER CASE) HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV AND FOLLOW THE APPROPRIATE LINKS. ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3) FOR THE REGION FROM 20N to 70N LATITUDE AND 175E to 60W LONGITUDE INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 19501126 - 19731129 - 19661115 - 19991128 - 19611125 ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4) FOR THE REGION FROM 20N to 70N LATITUDE AND 175E to 60W LONGITUDE INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 19501126 - 19661128 - 19661114 - 19731129 - 19991128 6 to 10 day Outlook Table OUTLOOK FOR NOV 30 - DEC 04, 2006 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON B N OREGON B B NRN CALIF N B SRN CALIF A B IDAHO B B NEVADA N B W MONTANA B B E MONTANA N B WYOMING B B UTAH B B ARIZONA N B COLORADO B B NEW MEXICO B B N DAKOTA N B S DAKOTA N B NEBRASKA B B KANSAS B B OKLAHOMA B B N TEXAS B B S TEXAS B B W TEXAS B B MINNESOTA N N IOWA N N MISSOURI B N ARKANSAS B N LOUISIANA B N WISCONSIN N N ILLINOIS N N MISSISSIPPI B N MICHIGAN N A INDIANA N A OHIO N A KENTUCKY N A TENNESSEE B A ALABAMA B N NEW YORK A A VERMONT A A NEW HAMP A A MAINE A A MASS A A CONN A A RHODE IS A A PENN N A NEW JERSEY N A W VIRGINIA N A MARYLAND N A DELAWARE N A VIRGINIA N A N CAROLINA N A S CAROLINA N A GEORGIA N A FL PNHDL B N FL PENIN N N AK N SLOPE N N AK ALEUTIAN A A AK WESTERN A A AK INT BSN A A AK S INT A A AK SO COAST A A AK PNHDL N A 8 to 14 day Outlook Table OUTLOOK FOR DEC 02 - 08, 2006 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON N B OREGON N B NRN CALIF A B SRN CALIF A B IDAHO N B NEVADA N B W MONTANA N B E MONTANA A B WYOMING N B UTAH N B ARIZONA N N COLORADO N B NEW MEXICO B N N DAKOTA A B S DAKOTA N B NEBRASKA N B KANSAS B B OKLAHOMA B B N TEXAS B N S TEXAS B N W TEXAS B N MINNESOTA N B IOWA N B MISSOURI B B ARKANSAS B B LOUISIANA B B WISCONSIN N B ILLINOIS N B MISSISSIPPI B B MICHIGAN B N INDIANA B B OHIO B B KENTUCKY B B TENNESSEE B B ALABAMA B B NEW YORK B A VERMONT B A NEW HAMP B A MAINE B A MASS B A CONN B A RHODE IS B A PENN B N NEW JERSEY B A W VIRGINIA B N MARYLAND B N DELAWARE B N VIRGINIA B N N CAROLINA B N S CAROLINA B B GEORGIA B B FL PNHDL B B FL PENIN B B AK N SLOPE A A AK ALEUTIAN A A AK WESTERN A A AK INT BSN A A AK S INT A A AK SO COAST A A AK PNHDL N A LEGEND TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN B - BELOW B - BELOW THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS PMDMRD. $$