PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSIONS FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 300 PM EST THU NOV 23 2006 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK VALID FOR NOV 29 - DEC 03, 2006 TODAYS ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS ARE IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE EXPECTED 500-HPA FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE FORECAST DOMAIN DURING THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD. THE VARIOUS GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS AND THE 12Z ECMWF INDICATE A WEAK RIDGE NEAR THE WEST COAST... A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE GREAT PLAINS... AND A MODERATE RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. THE CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN SHOWS A DEEP TROUGH WELL INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND IS LESS PROGRESSIVE THAN THE GFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEANS. THE 6-10 DAY OFFICIAL BLEND WAS WEIGHTED MOST HEAVILY TOWARDS THE 12Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN SINCE THAT MODEL HAS SHOWN THE BEST CONTINUITY RECENTLY. THE LONGWAVE WEATHER PATTERN FAVORS A SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR ENTERING THE ROCKIES AND PLAINS NEXT WEEK. CURRENT TEMPERATURES OVER EASTERN ALASKA RANGE FROM -30 TO -40 DEGREES F. DUE TO A LACK OF WIDESPREAD SNOW COVERAGE ACROSS THE HIGH LATITUDES OF NORTH AMERICA... THE ARCTIC AIR WILL LIKELY MODIFY BEFORE IT SPREADS ACROSS THE PLAINS. REGARDLESS... THE ROCKIES... PLAINS... AND UPPER MIDWEST WILL LIKELY EXPERIENCE THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES SO FAR THIS SEASON. THE MODERATELY DEEP TROUGH POSITIONED OVER THE WEST ALSO FAVORS BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST IS LESS CERTAIN ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WHERE OFFSHORE FLOW MAY LEAD TO A WARMING TREND. THE SIGNIFICANT 500-HPA POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY LOCATED OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL LIKELY SLOW THE PROGRESS OF THE TROUGH. THEREFORE... ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST FOR THE EAST COAST. AHEAD OF THE TROUGH... UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES WILL DOMINATE THE EARLY PART OF THE OUTLOOK PERIOD BUT THE MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR SHOULD REACH THE EAST COAST DURING THE FIRST WEEKEND OF DECEMBER. AFTER A PERIOD OF BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES IN EASTERN ALASKA... A MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED. A STRONG COLD FRONT WITH AMPLE GULF MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION FROM THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE EAST COAST. FOLLOWING A RECORD SETTING WET NOVEMBER ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST... A MAJORITY OF FORECAST TOOLS SUGGEST THAT PRECIPITATION WILL BE AT OR BELOW NORMAL. AS THE STRONG SURFACE HIGH BECOMES CENTERED OVER THE ROCKIES... OFFSHORE FLOW SHOULD MAINTAIN DRY WEATHER ACROSS CALIFORNIA. ELSEWHERE... THE ALEUTIANS AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA WILL LIKELY EXPERIENCE ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION. TODAYS OFFICIAL 500-HPA BLEND CONSISTS OF 20 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL ECMWF CENTERED ON DAY 7...10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...20 PERCENT OF TODAY'S GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...AND 30 PERCENT OF TODAY'S EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 7. MODEL(S) OF THE DAY: 12Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD IS ABOVE AVERAGE... 4 ON A SCALE OF 1 TO 5 DUE TO REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS. THE 6-10 DAY TEMPERATURE PROG IS BASED ON THE KLEIN... NEURAL NET... AND ANALOG SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLENDED HEIGHTS AND FROM INDIVIDUAL ECMWF AND GFS MODEL SOLUTIONS... THE CPC AUTO FORECAST... AND THE CDC FORECAST TOOL. THE 6-10 DAY PRECIPITATION PROG IS BASED ON THE CPC AUTO FORECAST... CDC FORECAST... NEURAL NET AND ANALOG SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLENDED HEIGHTS... CALIBRATED PRECIPITATION FROM THE 0Z AND 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN... AND THE CPC AND EMC CALIBRATED PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES FROM THE GFS ENSEMBLES. 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR DEC 01 - 07 2006: DURING WEEK 2... THE EXPECTED 500-HPA FLOW PATTERN FEATURES A PAIR OF WEAK TO MODERATE POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL PACIFIC (45N-150W) AND NORTH ATLANTIC (50N-50W). COMPARISON BETWEEN YESTERDAYS AND TODAYS OFFICIAL BLENDED HEIGHT CHARTS YIELDS A SLIGHTLY WEAKER RIDGE IN THE NORTH-CENTRAL PACIFIC AND A SLIGHTLY STRONGER RIDGE OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC. THE WEAKENING TREND OF THE NORTH-CENTRAL PACIFIC RIDGE FAVORS AN INCREASE IN 500-HPA HEIGHTS ACROSS THE WEST. THEREFORE... MODERATING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE ROCKIES AND PLAINS AS THE WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES DURING THE DAY 6 - 10 PERIOD SHOULD BE SHORT-LIVED. TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEK 2 PERIOD WILL AVERAGE AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FROM THE ROCKIES ONTO THE PLAINS. THE STRENGTHENING RIDGE OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC ALONG WITH BELOW NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS FAVORS BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE EAST. AT THE BEGINNING OF THE OUTLOOK PERIOD... THE MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR SHOULD ARRIVE TO THE EAST COAST. MEANWHILE... ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST FOR ALASKA. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL LIKELY PROMOTE BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR MUCH OF THE CONUS EXCEPT FOR THE EAST COAST. THE BLOCKING RIDGE CENTERED IN THE NORTH ATLANTIC MAY FAVOR COASTAL STORMINESS AND THUS ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR THE EAST COAST. ELSEWHERE... ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE FOR ALASKA. THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY HEIGHT PROG CONSISTS OF 25 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...25 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...AND 50 PERCENT OF TODAY'S GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11. FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD IS AVERAGE TODAY... 3 ON A SCALE OF 1 TO 5... DUE TO GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE PRECIPITATION FORECAST TOOLS OFFSET BY CONFLICTING SIGNALS FROM THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST TOOLS. THE 8-14 DAY TEMPERATURE PROG IS BASED ON THE KLEIN... NEURAL NET... AND ANALOG SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLENDED HEIGHTS AND FROM INDIVIDUAL GFS SOLUTIONS ... THE CPC AUTO FORECAST... AND THE CDC FORECAST. THE 8-14 DAY PRECIPITATION PROG IS BASED ON THE CPC AUTO FORECAST... ANALOG AND NEURAL NET SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLENDED HEIGHTS... CALIBRATED PRECIPITATION FROM THE 0Z AND 6Z GFS... CALIBRATED PRECIPITATION FROM THE 0Z AND 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN... THE CDC FORECAST... AND THE CPC AND EMC CALIBRATED PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES FROM THE GFS ENSEMBLES. FORECASTER: PUGH NOTES: OPERATIONAL CHANGE: AS OF JULY 5 2005 SHADED MAPS HAVE REPLACED THE CONTOUR-ONLY MAPS ON THE CPC WEB SITE. THE CONTOURED MAPS ARE STILL AVAILABLE AT THEIR CURRENT FILE NAMES - SO DIRECT-LINKED USERS ARE NOT AFFECTED. AWIPS GRAPHICS ARE ALSO NOT AFFECTED BY THIS CHANGE. AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OTHERWISE - FORECASTS INCORPORATE FORECASTER INPUT. THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION. THE NARRATIVE DESCRIPTION OF THE FORECAST PATTERNS FOR TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION FOR BOTH THE 6-10 OR 8-14 DAY PERIODS HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. THE STATE TABLES FOR BOTH THE 6-10 AND 8-14 DAY PERIODS ARE NOW CONTAINED IN THIS MESSAGE...AVAILABLE AS PMDMRD ON AWIPS. THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1971-2000 BASE PERIOD MEANS FOR TEMPERATURE...PRECIPITATION...AND 500-HPA HEIGHTS AS REFERENCE IN THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS. THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON DECEMBER 21. NEW NOTE EFFECTIVE MAR 16 2004: THE GLOSSARY FORMERLY FOUND AT THIS LOCATION WILL NO LONGER BE TRANSMITTED AS PART OF THIS MESSAGE. IF YOU WISH TO SEE THE DEFINITIONS OF TERMS USED IN THESE MESSAGES... PLEASE GO TO THE CPC WEB PAGE AT (USE LOWER CASE) HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV AND FOLLOW THE APPROPRIATE LINKS. ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3) FOR THE REGION FROM 20N to 70N LATITUDE AND 175E to 60W LONGITUDE INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 19501126 - 19661114 - 19661128 - 19731129 - 19991128 ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4) FOR THE REGION FROM 20N to 70N LATITUDE AND 175E to 60W LONGITUDE INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 19501125 - 19661128 - 19811116 - 19661114 - 19731129 6 to 10 day Outlook Table OUTLOOK FOR NOV 29 - DEC 03, 2006 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON B N OREGON B B NRN CALIF B B SRN CALIF B B IDAHO B B NEVADA B B W MONTANA B N E MONTANA B N WYOMING B N UTAH B B ARIZONA B B COLORADO B B NEW MEXICO B B N DAKOTA B N S DAKOTA B N NEBRASKA B N KANSAS B N OKLAHOMA B N N TEXAS N N S TEXAS N N W TEXAS B B MINNESOTA B N IOWA B N MISSOURI B A ARKANSAS N A LOUISIANA A N WISCONSIN B A ILLINOIS N A MISSISSIPPI A A MICHIGAN N A INDIANA N A OHIO A A KENTUCKY A A TENNESSEE A A ALABAMA A A NEW YORK A A VERMONT A A NEW HAMP A A MAINE A A MASS A A CONN A A RHODE IS A A PENN A A NEW JERSEY A A W VIRGINIA A A MARYLAND A A DELAWARE A A VIRGINIA A A N CAROLINA A A S CAROLINA A A GEORGIA A A FL PNHDL A N FL PENIN A N AK N SLOPE A N AK ALEUTIAN A A AK WESTERN A A AK INT BSN A N AK S INT A A AK SO COAST A A AK PNHDL B A 8 to 14 day Outlook Table OUTLOOK FOR DEC 01 - 07, 2006 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON N B OREGON N B NRN CALIF A B SRN CALIF A B IDAHO N B NEVADA N B W MONTANA N B E MONTANA N B WYOMING N B UTAH N B ARIZONA N N COLORADO N B NEW MEXICO N B N DAKOTA B N S DAKOTA B N NEBRASKA B B KANSAS B B OKLAHOMA B B N TEXAS B B S TEXAS B B W TEXAS B B MINNESOTA B N IOWA B N MISSOURI B B ARKANSAS B B LOUISIANA B B WISCONSIN B N ILLINOIS B N MISSISSIPPI B B MICHIGAN B N INDIANA B N OHIO B N KENTUCKY B N TENNESSEE B B ALABAMA B B NEW YORK B A VERMONT N A NEW HAMP N A MAINE N A MASS N A CONN N A RHODE IS N A PENN B A NEW JERSEY B A W VIRGINIA B N MARYLAND B A DELAWARE B A VIRGINIA B A N CAROLINA B N S CAROLINA B N GEORGIA B B FL PNHDL B B FL PENIN B B AK N SLOPE A N AK ALEUTIAN A A AK WESTERN A A AK INT BSN A A AK S INT A A AK SO COAST A A AK PNHDL A N LEGEND TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN B - BELOW B - BELOW THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS PMDMRD. $$