PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSIONS FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 300 PM EST WED NOV 22 2006 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK VALID FOR NOV 28 - DEC 02, 2006 TODAYS NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN POOR AGREEMENT ON THE EXPECTED 500-HPA FLOW PATTERN ACROSS NORTH AMERICA DURING THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD. THE VARIOUS GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS INDICATE A MORE PROGRESSIVE TROUGH ACROSS THE CONUS... WHILE THE 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN AND 12Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS MAINTAIN A MODERATELY DEEP TROUGH OVER THE WEST AND A WEAK RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST. THE 6-10 DAY OFFICIAL BLEND WAS WEIGHTED MOST HEAVILY TOWARDS THE 12Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN AGAIN TODAY SINCE THAT MODEL SOLUTION HAS SUPPORT FROM THE CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN... THE CDC FORECAST... AND THE DAVA MODEL. THE OPERATIONAL RUN OF THE 12Z GFS HAS TRENDED TOWARDS A SLOWER TROUGH MOVEMENT SIMILAR TO THE 12Z ECMWF AND CANADIAN MODEL FORECASTS. THE SIGNIFICANT 500-HPA POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY LOCATED NEAR THE DATELINE IN THE NORTH PACIFIC TELECONNECTS TO A TROUGH OVER THE WEST AND OFFERS ADDITIONAL SUPPORT TOWARDS THE 12Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN. CURRENT TEMPERATURES OVER WESTERN CANADA AND EASTERN ALASKA RANGE FROM -20 TO -30 DEGREES F. THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN FAVORS A BRIEF SHOT OF THAT ARCTIC AIR ENTERING THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND ROCKIES WHERE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST. THE MODERATELY DEEP TROUGH POSITIONED OVER THE WEST ALSO FAVORS BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR CALIFORNIA AND THE SOUTHWEST. MEANWHILE... A STRONG THERMAL GRADIENT WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. TO THE EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER... ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST IN ADVANCE OF THE WESTERN TROUGH. THE STRONG THERMAL GRADIENT SHOULD PROMOTE ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE MIDWEST. PRECIPITATION TOOLS SUGGEST THAT ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION WILL EXTEND INTO THE NORTHEAST AND MID-ATLANTIC. IF THE WESTERN TROUGH DIGS FAR ENOUGH SOUTH... THEN SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND THE SOUTHWEST MAY EXPERIENCE ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION. BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS ANTICIPATED ALONG THE GULF COAST. ELSEWHERE... THE ALEUTIANS AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA WILL LIKELY EXPERIENCE ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION. TODAYS OFFICIAL 500-HPA BLEND CONSISTS OF 10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S DAVA CENTERED ON DAY 8...10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...20 PERCENT OF TODAY'S CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...AND 40 PERCENT OF TODAY'S EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 7. MODEL(S) OF THE DAY: 12Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN. FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD IS BELOW AVERAGE... 2 ON A SCALE OF 1 TO 5 DUE TO POOR AGREEMENT AMONG THE ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS. THE 6-10 DAY TEMPERATURE PROG IS BASED ON THE KLEIN... NEURAL NET... AND ANALOG SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLENDED HEIGHTS AND FROM INDIVIDUAL ECMWF AND CANADIAN MODEL SOLUTIONS... THE CPC AUTO FORECAST... AND THE CDC FORECAST TOOL. THE 6-10 DAY PRECIPITATION PROG IS BASED ON THE CPC AUTO FORECAST... CDC FORECAST... NEURAL NET AND ANALOG SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLENDED HEIGHTS... CALIBRATED PRECIPITATION FROM THE 0Z AND 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN... AND THE CPC AND EMC CALIBRATED PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES FROM THE GFS ENSEMBLES. 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR NOV 30 - DEC 06, 2006: DURING WEEK 2... THE EXPECTED 500-HPA FLOW PATTERN FEATURES A PAIR OF POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL PACIFIC (40N-160W) AND NORTH ATLANTIC (50N-50W). AFTER DISCOUNTING THE CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN AS AN OUTLIER YESTERDAY... TELECONNECTIONS WITH THE POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES IN THE NORTH-CENTRAL PACIFIC SUPPORT THE LONGWAVE PATTERN REPRESENTED BY TODAYS CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN. THEREFORE... TODAYS OFFICIAL BLEND CHART WAS WEIGHTED MOST HEAVILY TOWARDS THE CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN. A WEAK TROUGH IS FORECAST ALONG THE WEST COAST WITH THE REMAINDER OF THE CONUS INFLUENCED BY GENERALLY ZONAL FLOW. A WIDESPREAD AREA OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS FORECAST FOR MUCH OF THE CONUS AS THE NORTHERN POSITION OF THE POLAR JET SHOULD PREVENT ANY OUTBREAKS OF ARCTIC AIR. THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS INDICATE BELOW NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST... SUGGESTING THAT TEMPERATURES MAY BE BELOW NORMAL FOR FLORIDA. MEANWHILE... BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY PERSIST FOR EASTERN ALASKA DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF THE RIDGE SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS. ALONG WITH THE MILD TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE CONUS... THE ZONAL FLOW PATTERN WILL RESULT IN DRIER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS. PRECIPITATION TOOLS SUGGEST THAT ONLY THE WEST AND NORTHEAST MAY EXPERIENCE ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION. THE DEVELOPMENT OF A BLOCKING RIDGE CENTERED IN THE NORTH ATLANTIC MAY FAVOR ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR THE NORTHEAST... WHILE A WEAK TROUGH COULD BRING ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION TO THE WEST COAST. ELSEWHERE... ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FOR THE ALEUTIANS AND WESTERN ALASKA. THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY HEIGHT PROG CONSISTS OF 10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S DAVA CENTERED ON DAY 11...10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...20 PERCENT OF TODAY'S GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...AND 50 PERCENT OF TODAY'S CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11. FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD IS BELOW AVERAGE TODAY... 2 ON A SCALE OF 1 TO 5... DUE TO POOR AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS AND THE CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN. THE 8-14 DAY TEMPERATURE PROG IS BASED ON THE KLEIN... NEURAL NET... AND ANALOG SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLENDED HEIGHTS AND FROM INDIVIDUAL GFS SOLUTIONS ... THE CPC AUTO FORECAST... AND THE CDC FORECAST. THE 8-14 DAY PRECIPITATION PROG IS BASED ON THE CPC AUTO FORECAST... ANALOG SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLENDED HEIGHTS... CALIBRATED PRECIPITATION FROM THE 0Z AND 6Z OPERATIONAL GFS... CALIBRATED PRECIPITATION FROM THE 0Z AND 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN... THE CDC FORECAST... AND THE CPC AND EMC CALIBRATED PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES FROM THE GFS ENSEMBLES. FORECASTER: PUGH NOTES: OPERATIONAL CHANGE: AS OF JULY 5 2005 SHADED MAPS HAVE REPLACED THE CONTOUR-ONLY MAPS ON THE CPC WEB SITE. THE CONTOURED MAPS ARE STILL AVAILABLE AT THEIR CURRENT FILE NAMES - SO DIRECT-LINKED USERS ARE NOT AFFECTED. AWIPS GRAPHICS ARE ALSO NOT AFFECTED BY THIS CHANGE. AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OTHERWISE - FORECASTS INCORPORATE FORECASTER INPUT. THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION. THE NARRATIVE DESCRIPTION OF THE FORECAST PATTERNS FOR TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION FOR BOTH THE 6-10 OR 8-14 DAY PERIODS HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. THE STATE TABLES FOR BOTH THE 6-10 AND 8-14 DAY PERIODS ARE NOW CONTAINED IN THIS MESSAGE...AVAILABLE AS PMDMRD ON AWIPS. THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1971-2000 BASE PERIOD MEANS FOR TEMPERATURE...PRECIPITATION...AND 500-HPA HEIGHTS AS REFERENCE IN THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS. THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON DECEMBER 21. NEW NOTE EFFECTIVE MAR 16 2004: THE GLOSSARY FORMERLY FOUND AT THIS LOCATION WILL NO LONGER BE TRANSMITTED AS PART OF THIS MESSAGE. IF YOU WISH TO SEE THE DEFINITIONS OF TERMS USED IN THESE MESSAGES... PLEASE GO TO THE CPC WEB PAGE AT (USE LOWER CASE) HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV AND FOLLOW THE APPROPRIATE LINKS. ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3) FOR THE REGION FROM 20N to 70N LATITUDE AND 175E to 60W LONGITUDE INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 19501125 - 19661128 - 19811116 - 19661114 - 19621111 ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4) FOR THE REGION FROM 20N to 70N LATITUDE AND 175E to 60W LONGITUDE INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 19501125 - 19661128 - 19811116 - 19621111 - 19501205 6 to 10 day Outlook Table OUTLOOK FOR NOV 28 - DEC 02, 2006 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON B N OREGON B N NRN CALIF B N SRN CALIF B N IDAHO B N NEVADA B N W MONTANA B N E MONTANA B A WYOMING B N UTAH B N ARIZONA B N COLORADO B N NEW MEXICO N B N DAKOTA B A S DAKOTA B A NEBRASKA N N KANSAS N N OKLAHOMA N B N TEXAS A B S TEXAS A B W TEXAS N B MINNESOTA B A IOWA N A MISSOURI N A ARKANSAS A N LOUISIANA A B WISCONSIN N A ILLINOIS N A MISSISSIPPI A B MICHIGAN N A INDIANA A A OHIO A A KENTUCKY A A TENNESSEE A N ALABAMA A B NEW YORK A A VERMONT A A NEW HAMP A A MAINE A A MASS A A CONN A A RHODE IS A A PENN A A NEW JERSEY A A W VIRGINIA A A MARYLAND A A DELAWARE A A VIRGINIA A A N CAROLINA A N S CAROLINA A N GEORGIA A B FL PNHDL A B FL PENIN A B AK N SLOPE N B AK ALEUTIAN N A AK WESTERN N A AK INT BSN B B AK S INT B N AK SO COAST B N AK PNHDL B N 8 to 14 day Outlook Table OUTLOOK FOR NOV 30 - DEC 06, 2006 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON N A OREGON N A NRN CALIF N A SRN CALIF A N IDAHO A N NEVADA A N W MONTANA A N E MONTANA A B WYOMING A B UTAH A N ARIZONA A N COLORADO A B NEW MEXICO A B N DAKOTA A B S DAKOTA A B NEBRASKA A B KANSAS A B OKLAHOMA A B N TEXAS A B S TEXAS A B W TEXAS A B MINNESOTA A B IOWA A B MISSOURI A B ARKANSAS A B LOUISIANA A B WISCONSIN A B ILLINOIS A B MISSISSIPPI A B MICHIGAN A N INDIANA A B OHIO A N KENTUCKY N B TENNESSEE N B ALABAMA N B NEW YORK B N VERMONT B A NEW HAMP B A MAINE B A MASS B A CONN B A RHODE IS B A PENN A N NEW JERSEY B N W VIRGINIA N N MARYLAND N N DELAWARE N N VIRGINIA N N N CAROLINA N N S CAROLINA N B GEORGIA N B FL PNHDL N B FL PENIN B B AK N SLOPE N N AK ALEUTIAN N A AK WESTERN N A AK INT BSN B N AK S INT B N AK SO COAST B N AK PNHDL B N LEGEND TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN B - BELOW B - BELOW THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS PMDMRD. $$