PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSIONS FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 300 PM EST TUE NOV 21 2006 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK VALID FOR NOV 27 - DEC 01, 2006 TODAYS NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT ON THE EXPECTED 500-HPA FLOW PATTERN ACROSS NORTH AMERICA FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD. THE VARIOUS GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS DEPICT A BROAD TROUGH ACROSS THE CONUS... WHILE THE 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN AND 12Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS MAINTAIN A MODERATELY DEEP TROUGH OVER THE WEST AND A WEAK RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST. TODAYS 6-10 DAY OFFICIAL BLEND WAS WEIGHTED MOST HEAVILY TOWARDS THE 12Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN SINCE THAT MODEL MAINTAINS THE BEST CONTINUITY WITH YESTERDAYS MODEL SOLUTIONS. THE SIGNIFICANT 500-HPA POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY AT 45N-150W IN THE NORTH-CENTRAL PACIFIC HAS DIMINISHED GREATLY ACCORDING TO THE GFS-BASED ENSEMBLE MEANS BUT THE 0Z CANADIAN AND THE 12Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEANS MAINTAIN THE POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALY. THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS MAY BE BREAKING DOWN THE NORTH-CENTRAL PACIFIC RIDGE TOO RAPIDLY BUT THIS CONTINUITY CHANGE WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED DURING FUTURE MODEL CYCLES. A RAPID INCREASE IN 500-HPA HEIGHTS IS FORECAST FOR THE SOUTHEAST AFTER THE DEPARTURE OF THE CURRENTLY OBSERVED ANOMALOUSLY LOW 500-HPA HEIGHTS. THE WESTERN TROUGH FAVORS BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEST COAST... PACIFIC NORTHWEST... AND NORTHERN ROCKIES... WHILE THE WEAK RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST FAVORS ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE SOUTH AND EAST. MEANWHILE... THE CDC TEMPERATURE FORECAST HAS TRENDED TOWARDS BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. THE GREATEST UNCERTAINTY IN THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST EXISTS ACROSS THE PLAINS WHERE THE 0Z AND 6Z OPERATIONAL RUNS OF THE GFS INDICATE THAT THE BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES NOW OVER NORTHWEST CANADA AND ALASKA MAY SPREAD SOUTH OF THE U.S.-CANADIAN BORDER. THEREFORE... BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS. PRECIPITATION TOOLS SUGGEST THAT THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL REMAIN WETTER THAN NORMAL EARLY IN THE PERIOD BUT A GRADUAL DRYING TREND MAY OCCUR LATER IN THE PERIOD. DOWNSTREAM FROM THE MODERATELY DEEP TROUGH OVER THE WEST... ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FOR THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST DUE TO A FRONTAL PASSAGE. BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS ANTICIPATED FROM THE SOUTHWEST INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND GULF COAST. ELSEWHERE... THE ALEUTIANS AND THE ALASKAN PANHANDLE WILL LIKELY EXPERIENCE ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION. TODAYS OFFICIAL 500-HPA BLEND CONSISTS OF 10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...20 PERCENT OF TODAY'S GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...20 PERCENT OF TODAY'S CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...AND 40 PERCENT OF TODAY'S EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 7. MODEL(S) OF THE DAY: 12Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN. FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD IS AVERAGE... 3 ON A SCALE OF 1 TO 5 DUE TO FAIR AGREEMENT AMONG THE ENSEMBLE MEANS. THE 6-10 DAY TEMPERATURE PROG IS BASED ON THE KLEIN... NEURAL NET... AND ANALOG SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLENDED HEIGHTS AND FROM INDIVIDUAL GFS AND ECMWF MODEL SOLUTIONS... THE CPC AUTO FORECAST... AND THE CDC FORECAST TOOL. THE 6-10 DAY PRECIPITATION PROG IS BASED ON THE CPC AUTO FORECAST... CDC FORECAST... ANALOG SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLENDED HEIGHTS... CALIBRATED PRECIPITATION FROM THE 0Z OPERATIONAL GFS AND 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN... AND THE CPC AND EMC CALIBRATED PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES FROM THE GFS ENSEMBLES. 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR NOV 29 - DEC 05, 2006: DURING WEEK 2... THE EXPECTED 500-HPA FLOW PATTERN FEATURES BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS IN THE EAST AS HUGE POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES DEVELOP NEAR GREENLAND WHILE NEAR NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST FOR THE WEST. THE OPERATIONAL RUNS OF THE 0Z AND 6Z GFS INDICATE THAT 500-HPA HEIGHTS WILL BE MORE THAN 200 METERS ABOVE NORMAL NEAR GREENLAND. EVEN THE MORE MODEST GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN FORECASTS 500-HPA HEIGHTS OF 180 METERS ABOVE NORMAL. THE LARGE POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES NEAR GREENLAND DURING THE COLD SEASON TYPICALLY ARE ASSOCIATED WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ALONG THE EAST COAST. HOWEVER... THE CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN MAINTAINS ABOVE NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS OVER THE EAST. THE CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN WAS DISCOUNTED TODAY AS AN OUTLIER. ELSEWHERE... AFTER A PERIOD OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES DURING THE DAY 6 - 10 PERIOD... A WARMING TREND IS ANTICIPATED FOR THE WEST AS 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES BECOME NEUTRAL. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY PERSIST FOR ALASKA DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF THE RIDGE SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS. DESPITE AN INCREASE IN 500-HPA HEIGHTS ACROSS THE WEST... ZONAL FLOW INTO THE WEST COAST WILL LEAD TO ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND CALIFORNIA. A TREND TOWARDS A SPLIT FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE EAST PACIFIC IS BECOMING EVIDENT IN THE OFFICIAL BLEND CHART THAT COULD RESULT IN A WETTER PATTERN FOR SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND THE SOUTHWEST BY THE END OF WEEK 2. ELSEWHERE... THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE BLOCKING RIDGE CENTERED IN THE NORTH ATLANTIC MAY FAVOR ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR THE NORTHEAST. OTHERWISE... THE PRECIPITATION TOOLS EXHIBIT CONFLICTING SIGNALS WITH A SLIGHT TILT IN THE ODDS TOWARDS BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE PLAINS AND GULF COAST STATES. AS THE EXPECTED PACIFIC STORM TRACK SHIFTS SOUTH... ALASKA SHOULD EXPERIENCE DRIER WEATHER. THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY HEIGHT PROG CONSISTS OF 20 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...20 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...AND 60 PERCENT OF TODAY'S GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11. FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD IS AVERAGE TODAY... 3 ON A SCALE OF 1 TO 5... DUE TO GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS BUT POOR AGREEMENT WITH THE CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN. THE 8-14 DAY TEMPERATURE PROG IS BASED ON THE KLEIN... NEURAL NET... AND ANALOG SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLENDED HEIGHTS AND FROM INDIVIDUAL GFS SOLUTIONS ... THE CPC AUTO FORECAST... AND THE CDC FORECAST. THE 8-14 DAY PRECIPITATION PROG IS BASED ON THE CPC AUTO FORECAST... ANALOG SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLENDED HEIGHTS... CALIBRATED PRECIPITATION FROM THE 0Z AND 6Z OPERATIONAL GFS... CALIBRATED PRECIPITATION FROM THE 0Z AND 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN... THE CDC FORECAST... AND THE CPC AND EMC CALIBRATED PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES FROM THE GFS ENSEMBLES. FORECASTER: PUGH NOTES: OPERATIONAL CHANGE: AS OF JULY 5 2005 SHADED MAPS HAVE REPLACED THE CONTOUR-ONLY MAPS ON THE CPC WEB SITE. THE CONTOURED MAPS ARE STILL AVAILABLE AT THEIR CURRENT FILE NAMES - SO DIRECT-LINKED USERS ARE NOT AFFECTED. AWIPS GRAPHICS ARE ALSO NOT AFFECTED BY THIS CHANGE. AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OTHERWISE - FORECASTS INCORPORATE FORECASTER INPUT. THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION. THE NARRATIVE DESCRIPTION OF THE FORECAST PATTERNS FOR TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION FOR BOTH THE 6-10 OR 8-14 DAY PERIODS HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. THE STATE TABLES FOR BOTH THE 6-10 AND 8-14 DAY PERIODS ARE NOW CONTAINED IN THIS MESSAGE...AVAILABLE AS PMDMRD ON AWIPS. THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1971-2000 BASE PERIOD MEANS FOR TEMPERATURE...PRECIPITATION...AND 500-HPA HEIGHTS AS REFERENCE IN THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS. THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON DECEMBER 21. NEW NOTE EFFECTIVE MAR 16 2004: THE GLOSSARY FORMERLY FOUND AT THIS LOCATION WILL NO LONGER BE TRANSMITTED AS PART OF THIS MESSAGE. IF YOU WISH TO SEE THE DEFINITIONS OF TERMS USED IN THESE MESSAGES... PLEASE GO TO THE CPC WEB PAGE AT (USE LOWER CASE) HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV AND FOLLOW THE APPROPRIATE LINKS. ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3) FOR THE REGION FROM 20N to 70N LATITUDE AND 175E to 60W LONGITUDE INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 19501125 - 19661128 - 19811116 - 19621111 - 19631110 ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4) FOR THE REGION FROM 20N to 70N LATITUDE AND 175E to 60W LONGITUDE INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 19501125 - 19661128 - 19631110 - 19811116 - 19691103 6 to 10 day Outlook Table OUTLOOK FOR NOV 27 - DEC 01, 2006 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON B A OREGON B N NRN CALIF B N SRN CALIF N B IDAHO B N NEVADA B N W MONTANA B A E MONTANA B A WYOMING B N UTAH N N ARIZONA N B COLORADO N B NEW MEXICO N B N DAKOTA B A S DAKOTA N N NEBRASKA N N KANSAS N B OKLAHOMA A B N TEXAS A B S TEXAS A B W TEXAS A B MINNESOTA N A IOWA N A MISSOURI A N ARKANSAS A B LOUISIANA A B WISCONSIN N A ILLINOIS A N MISSISSIPPI A B MICHIGAN A A INDIANA A A OHIO A A KENTUCKY A N TENNESSEE A N ALABAMA A N NEW YORK A A VERMONT A A NEW HAMP A A MAINE A A MASS A A CONN A A RHODE IS A A PENN A A NEW JERSEY A A W VIRGINIA A A MARYLAND A A DELAWARE A A VIRGINIA A A N CAROLINA A N S CAROLINA A N GEORGIA A N FL PNHDL N B FL PENIN N B AK N SLOPE B B AK ALEUTIAN N A AK WESTERN B A AK INT BSN B B AK S INT B N AK SO COAST B N AK PNHDL B A 8 to 14 day Outlook Table OUTLOOK FOR NOV 29 - DEC 05, 2006 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON N A OREGON N A NRN CALIF N A SRN CALIF A N IDAHO A A NEVADA A A W MONTANA N A E MONTANA N N WYOMING A N UTAH A N ARIZONA A N COLORADO A B NEW MEXICO A B N DAKOTA N N S DAKOTA N B NEBRASKA N B KANSAS A B OKLAHOMA A B N TEXAS A B S TEXAS A B W TEXAS A B MINNESOTA N N IOWA N B MISSOURI A B ARKANSAS A B LOUISIANA A B WISCONSIN N N ILLINOIS N B MISSISSIPPI N B MICHIGAN N N INDIANA N B OHIO B N KENTUCKY N B TENNESSEE N B ALABAMA N B NEW YORK B A VERMONT B A NEW HAMP B A MAINE N A MASS B A CONN B A RHODE IS B A PENN B N NEW JERSEY B A W VIRGINIA B N MARYLAND B N DELAWARE B A VIRGINIA B N N CAROLINA B N S CAROLINA B B GEORGIA B B FL PNHDL B B FL PENIN B B AK N SLOPE B B AK ALEUTIAN N B AK WESTERN B B AK INT BSN B B AK S INT B B AK SO COAST B B AK PNHDL B N LEGEND TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN B - BELOW B - BELOW THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS PMDMRD. $$