PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSIONS FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 300 PM EST MON NOV 20 2006 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK VALID FOR NOV 26 - 30 2006 TODAYS NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE EXPECTED 500-HPA FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE FORECAST DOMAIN. THE AVAILABLE MODEL SOLUTIONS DEPICT A MODERATE RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL PACIFIC... A MODERATELY STRONG TROUGH OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA... AND GENERALLY ZONAL FLOW ACROSS EASTERN NORTH AMERICA. THE CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN WAS UNAVAILABLE TODAY. THE MOST NOTABLE 500-HPA POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY IS CENTERED AT 45N-150W IN THE NORTH-CENTRAL PACIFIC AND STRONGLY TELECONNECTS TO A TROUGH ACROSS WESTERN NORTH AMERICA. TODAYS 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK WAS WEIGHTED MOST HEAVILY TOWARDS THE 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN SINCE THAT MODEL SOLUTION FAVORS A DEEPER TROUGH OVER THE WEST COMPARED TO YESTERDAYS 12Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN. IN ADDITION... ALL THE AVAILABLE ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS A MORE AMPLIFIED TROUGH OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA DURING THE PAST TWO DAYS. THE CDC TEMPERATURE FORECAST INDICATES ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR ALL OF THE CONUS. HOWEVER... THE FORECAST IS LIKELY TOO WARM FOR THE WEST SINCE ITS FORECASTED HEIGHT PATTERN IS OUT OF PHASE RELATIVE TO THE VARIOUS MODEL SOLUTIONS. THE OPERATIONAL RUNS OF THE 0Z AND 6Z GFS INDICATE A MORE AMPLIFIED FLOW PATTERN ACROSS NORTH AMERICA COMPARED TO THEIR RESPECTIVE ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS. THE WESTERN TROUGH FAVORS BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEST COAST AND NORTHERN ROCKIES. ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE CONUS FAVORS ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FROM THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE EAST COAST. ELSEWHERE... ACROSS EASTERN ALASKA... BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY CONTINUE AS THE RIDGE SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS PROLONGS THE ANOMALOUS NORTHERLY FLOW INTO THE STATE. PRECIPITATION TOOLS SUGGEST THAT THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL REMAIN WETTER THAN NORMAL. DOWNSTREAM FROM THE MODERATELY DEEP TROUGH OVER THE WEST... ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE FOR THE MIDWEST AS THE OPERATIONAL RUNS OF THE 0Z AND 6Z GFS INDICATE A FRONTAL PASSAGE. HOWEVER... GULF MOISTURE RETURN MAY BE DELAYED DUE TO THE LARGE OCEANIC STORM OFF THE EAST COAST PRIOR TO THE OUTLOOK PERIOD. BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS ANTICIPATED FOR THE NORTHEAST... MID-ATLANTIC... GULF COAST... AND SOUTHWEST. AN INCREASED LIKELIHOOD OF ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE ALEUTIANS AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA. TODAYS OFFICIAL 500-HPA BLEND CONSISTS OF 10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 0Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 8...10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 6Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 8...40 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...20 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...AND 20 PERCENT OF TODAY'S EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 7. MODEL(S) OF THE DAY: 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN. FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD IS ABOVE AVERAGE... 4 ON A SCALE OF 1 TO 5 DUE TO REASONABLY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT. THE 6-10 DAY TEMPERATURE PROG IS BASED ON THE KLEIN... NEURAL NET... AND ANALOG SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLENDED HEIGHTS AND FROM INDIVIDUAL GFS AND ECMWF MODEL SOLUTIONS AND THE CPC AUTO FORECAST. THE 6-10 DAY PRECIPITATION PROG IS BASED ON THE CPC AUTO FORECAST... ANALOG SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLENDED HEIGHTS... CALIBRATED PRECIPITATION FROM THE 0Z OPERATIONAL GFS AND 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN... AND THE CALIBRATED PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES FROM THE CPC AND EMC ENSEMBLES. 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR NOV 28 - DEC 04, 2006: DURING WEEK 2... THE EXPECTED 500-HPA FLOW PATTERN IS FAIRLY SIMILAR TO THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD WITH THE EXCEPTION THAT THE WESTERN TROUGH IS LESS AMPLIFIED. THE REDUCED AMPLIFICATION INDICATED BY THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS IS LIKELY A RESULT OF THE LARGER SPREAD AND UNCERTAINTY INHERENT IN WEEK 2 FORECASTS. THE POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES RETROGRADE WEST ACROSS THE PACIFIC... IMPLYING THAT THE EXPECTED INLAND WESTERN TROUGH MAY SHIFT BACK TOWARDS THE WEST COAST. COMPARISON BETWEEN THE D+8 AND D+11 GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS REVEALS ONE NOTABLE CHANGE. ALL GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS INDICATE THAT 500-HPA HEIGHTS WILL BECOME POSITIVE NEAR GREENLAND... SUGGESTING THAT A BLOCKING RIDGE MAY DEVELOP OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC. IF THE BLOCKING RIDGE DOES DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTH ATLANTIC... A TREND TOWARDS COLDER TEMPERATURES WOULD LIKELY OCCUR IN THE EAST LATE DURING WEEK 2. THE NEUTRAL 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALY PATTERN FAVORS ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THE CONUS EXCLUDING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY PERSIST FOR ALASKA AND EXPAND WEST AS THE 500-HPA PATTERN RETROGRADES. THE PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK WAS BASED PRIMARILY ON THE CALIBRATED PRECIPITATION TOOLS FROM THE VARIOUS GFS MODEL SOLUTIONS DUE TO ITS RELATIVELY HIGHER SKILL SCORE RECENTLY. ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION SHOULD PERSIST FOR THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST... SOUTHWEST ALASKA... AND THE ALEUTIANS. ELSEWHERE... ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FOR THE GREAT LAKES AND EAST... WHILE BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FOR THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND SOUTHWEST. THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY HEIGHT PROG CONSISTS OF 25 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...25 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...AND 50 PERCENT OF TODAY'S GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11. FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD IS AVERAGE TODAY... 3 ON A SCALE OF 1 TO 5... DUE TO GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS OFFSET BY LARGE SPREAD AMONG THE INDIVIDUAL ENSEMBLE MEMBERS. THE 8-14 DAY TEMPERATURE PROG IS BASED ON THE KLEIN... NEURAL NET... AND ANALOG SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLENDED HEIGHTS AND FROM INDIVIDUAL GFS SOLUTIONS ... THE CPC AUTO FORECAST... AND THE CDC FORECAST. THE 8-14 DAY PRECIPITATION PROG IS BASED ON THE CPC AUTO FORECAST... ANALOG SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLENDED HEIGHTS... CALIBRATED PRECIPITATION FROM THE 0Z AND 6Z OPERATIONAL GFS... CALIBRATED PRECIPITATION FROM THE 0Z AND 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN... THE CDC FORECAST... AND THE CALIBRATED PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES FROM THE CPC AND EMC ENSEMBLES. FORECASTER: PUGH NOTES: OPERATIONAL CHANGE: AS OF JULY 5 2005 SHADED MAPS HAVE REPLACED THE CONTOUR-ONLY MAPS ON THE CPC WEB SITE. THE CONTOURED MAPS ARE STILL AVAILABLE AT THEIR CURRENT FILE NAMES - SO DIRECT-LINKED USERS ARE NOT AFFECTED. AWIPS GRAPHICS ARE ALSO NOT AFFECTED BY THIS CHANGE. AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OTHERWISE - FORECASTS INCORPORATE FORECASTER INPUT. THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION. THE NARRATIVE DESCRIPTION OF THE FORECAST PATTERNS FOR TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION FOR BOTH THE 6-10 OR 8-14 DAY PERIODS HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. THE STATE TABLES FOR BOTH THE 6-10 AND 8-14 DAY PERIODS ARE NOW CONTAINED IN THIS MESSAGE...AVAILABLE AS PMDMRD ON AWIPS. THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1971-2000 BASE PERIOD MEANS FOR TEMPERATURE...PRECIPITATION...AND 500-HPA HEIGHTS AS REFERENCE IN THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS. THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON DECEMBER 21. NEW NOTE EFFECTIVE MAR 16 2004: THE GLOSSARY FORMERLY FOUND AT THIS LOCATION WILL NO LONGER BE TRANSMITTED AS PART OF THIS MESSAGE. IF YOU WISH TO SEE THE DEFINITIONS OF TERMS USED IN THESE MESSAGES... PLEASE GO TO THE CPC WEB PAGE AT (USE LOWER CASE) HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV AND FOLLOW THE APPROPRIATE LINKS. ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3) FOR THE REGION FROM 20N to 70N LATITUDE AND 175E to 60W LONGITUDE INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 19501125 - 19631110 - 19661128 - 19691103 - 19811116 ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4) FOR THE REGION FROM 20N to 70N LATITUDE AND 175E to 60W LONGITUDE INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 19501124 - 19631110 - 19661128 - 19961108 - 19691103 6 to 10 day Outlook Table OUTLOOK FOR NOV 26 - 30, 2006 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON B A OREGON B A NRN CALIF B N SRN CALIF N N IDAHO B A NEVADA N N W MONTANA B A E MONTANA B N WYOMING B N UTAH N N ARIZONA N B COLORADO N N NEW MEXICO N B N DAKOTA N N S DAKOTA N N NEBRASKA N N KANSAS N N OKLAHOMA A N N TEXAS A B S TEXAS A B W TEXAS N B MINNESOTA N A IOWA A A MISSOURI A A ARKANSAS A N LOUISIANA A B WISCONSIN A A ILLINOIS A A MISSISSIPPI A B MICHIGAN A A INDIANA A A OHIO A A KENTUCKY A A TENNESSEE A A ALABAMA A N NEW YORK A B VERMONT A B NEW HAMP A B MAINE A B MASS A B CONN A B RHODE IS A B PENN A N NEW JERSEY A B W VIRGINIA A N MARYLAND A B DELAWARE A B VIRGINIA A N N CAROLINA A N S CAROLINA A N GEORGIA A N FL PNHDL A B FL PENIN A N AK N SLOPE B N AK ALEUTIAN N A AK WESTERN B A AK INT BSN B N AK S INT B A AK SO COAST B A AK PNHDL B N 8 to 14 day Outlook Table OUTLOOK FOR NOV 28 - DEC 04, 2006 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON B A OREGON B A NRN CALIF N N SRN CALIF N N IDAHO N A NEVADA N N W MONTANA B A E MONTANA B A WYOMING N N UTAH N N ARIZONA N B COLORADO N N NEW MEXICO A B N DAKOTA N A S DAKOTA N N NEBRASKA N N KANSAS A N OKLAHOMA A B N TEXAS A B S TEXAS A B W TEXAS A B MINNESOTA N A IOWA A A MISSOURI A N ARKANSAS A N LOUISIANA A B WISCONSIN N A ILLINOIS A A MISSISSIPPI A N MICHIGAN N A INDIANA A A OHIO A A KENTUCKY A A TENNESSEE A A ALABAMA A N NEW YORK A A VERMONT A A NEW HAMP A A MAINE A A MASS N A CONN A A RHODE IS A A PENN A A NEW JERSEY A A W VIRGINIA A A MARYLAND A A DELAWARE A A VIRGINIA A A N CAROLINA N A S CAROLINA N A GEORGIA N N FL PNHDL N N FL PENIN N N AK N SLOPE B N AK ALEUTIAN B A AK WESTERN B A AK INT BSN B N AK S INT B N AK SO COAST B N AK PNHDL B N LEGEND TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN B - BELOW B - BELOW THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS PMDMRD. $$