PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSIONS FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 300 PM EST FRI NOV 17 2006 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK VALID FOR NOV 23 - 27 2006 FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD... TODAYS MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE EXPECTED 500-HPA ATMOSPHERIC FLOW PATTERN. TODAYS 0Z AND 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEANS AND 0Z AND 6Z GFS OPERATIONAL MODELS FORECAST A WEAKENING OF THE RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS... WHILE THE RIDGE STRENGTHENS OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS AND EASTERN CANADA. THE MOST RECENT 12Z ECMWF OPERATIONAL MODEL SOLUTION AND 12Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN SHOW MORE CONTINUITY WITH THE PREVIOUS DAYS 12Z ECMWF RUNS... INDICATING A STRONGER RIDGE OVER THE CONUS WHICH EXTENDS INTO EASTERN CANADA. THE CANADIAN ENSEMBLE WAS UNAVAILABLE TODAY. FROM THE OFFICIAL BLEND... NEARLY ZONAL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IS FORECAST TO DOMINATE THE CONUS... AN EASTERN PACIFIC TROUGH MAY WEAKEN SLIGHTLY... WHILE THE LOCATION OF A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC IS UNCHANGED FROM YESTERDAYS FORECAST. WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE FROM THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS TO THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS... WITH INCREASING PROBABILITIES FOR THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES REGION DUE TO RISING 500-HPA HEIGHTS. BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS GENERALLY EXPECTED EAST OF THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS... WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE ATLANTIC COAST AND THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS... WHICH MAY SEE NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION... DUE TO A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLES SPIN UP A CLOSED LOW OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST EARLY IN THE PERIOD BRINGING POTENTIALLY GREATER RAINFALL TO THE SOUTHEAST AND MID-ATLANTIC COAST. THE PROBABILITIES OF ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST MAY DECREASE AND AFFECT A SMALLER AREA THAN EARLIER IN THE WEEK... IF THE TROUGH THERE WEAKENS AS INDICATED BY THE 0Z AND 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEANS. HOWEVER... TODAYS 12Z GFS OPERATIONAL MODEL RUN... YESTERDAYS 12Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN... AND ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY PERIOD INDICATE THAT THE EASTERN PACIFIC TROUGH WILL REMAIN UNCHANGED. ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION AND NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE AGAIN FORECAST FOR THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED IN THE SOUTHEAST DUE TO THE TROUGH FORECAST THERE. ALASKA IS FORECAST TO BE IMPACTED BY A STRONG RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST FOR EASTERN ALASKA AND THE ALASKAN PANHANDLE... WHILE PARTS OF WESTERN ALASKA AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS ARE FORECAST TO BE WARMER THAN NORMAL. BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN PART OF THE STATE... WHILE ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST FOR NORTHWESTERN REGIONS OF THE STATE. MOISTURE FROM HURRICANE SERGIO IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC MAY BRING ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION TO AREAS OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA OR THE SOUTHWEST. PLEASE REFER TO THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER (HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV) FOR MORE INFORMATION ON HURRICANE SERGIO. TODAYS OFFICIAL 500-HPA BLEND CONSISTS OF 5 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 6Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 8...5 PERCENT OF YESTERDAY'S OPERATIONAL 18Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 7...5 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL ECMWF CENTERED ON DAY 7...5 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...20 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...20 PERCENT OF TODAY'S GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...AND 40 PERCENT OF TODAY'S EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 7. MODEL(S) OF THE DAY: 12Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD IS ABOVE AVERAGE... 4 ON A SCALE OF 1 TO 5 DUE TO GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT. THE 6-10 DAY TEMPERATURE PROG IS BASED ON THE KLEIN... NEURAL NET... AND ANALOG SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLENDED HEIGHTS AND FROM INDIVIDUAL GFS AND ECMWF MODEL SOLUTIONS ... THE CPC AUTO FORECAST... AND THE CDC FORECAST. THE 6-10 DAY PRECIPITATION PROG IS BASED ON THE CPC AUTO FORECAST... ANALOG SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLENDED HEIGHTS... CALIBRATED PRECIPITATION FROM THE 0Z OPERATIONAL GFS AND 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN... THE CDC FORECAST... AND THE CALIBRATED PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES FROM THE CPC AND EMC ENSEMBLES. 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR NOV 25 - DEC 01, 2006: FOR WEEK 2... THE 500-HPA FLOW PATTERN FROM THE OFFICIAL BLEND HAS A SIMILAR PHASE BUT WEAKER AMPLITUDE COMPARED TO THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD FORECAST. THE 0Z AND 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEANS AND GFS SUPER-ENSEMBLE INDICATE A WEAKENING OF THE RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. YESTERDAYS 12Z AND 18Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEANS AND 12Z AND 18Z GFS OPERATIONAL RUNS MAINTAINED A SOMEWHAT STRONGER CENTRAL CONUS RIDGE. THE CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN WAS UNAVAILABLE FOR THE OFFICIAL BLEND TODAY. TODAYS OFFICIAL BLEND PRODUCES A VERY ZONAL FLOW OVER THE CONUS. ANALOGS TO THE WEEK 2 PERIOD HAVE A SOMEWHAT STRONGER EASTERN PACIFIC TROUGH AND DOWNSTREAM EASTERN CONUS RIDGE. THIS PATTERN PRODUCES SIGNIFICANTLY GREATER AREAS OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES IN THE CENTRAL CONUS AND NORTHEAST. THE NORTH AMERICAN ENSEMBLE FORECAST SYSTEM TEMPERATURE PROBABILITIES... WHICH INCLUDE THE CANADIAN ENSEMBLE... INDICATES ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER THE ENTIRE CONUS... WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE SOUTHEAST. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER MOST OF THE CONUS. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST FOR THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND THE SOUTHEAST. BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST FOR THE EASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE CONUS... WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND THE NORTHEAST. ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST FOR THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. FOR ALASKA... A RIDGE IS FORECAST NORTH OF THE BERING SEA. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST FOR EASTERN ALASKA AND THE ALASKAN PANHANDLE... WHILE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST FOR PARTS OF NORTHWESTERN ALASKA. BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FOR SOUTHEASTERN ALASKA AND THE PANHANDLE. THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY HEIGHT PROG CONSISTS OF 10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 6Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 11...5 PERCENT OF YESTERDAY'S OPERATIONAL 12Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 10...10 PERCENT OF YESTERDAY'S OPERATIONAL 18Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 10...15 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...5 PERCENT OF YESTERDAY'S 12Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 10...15 PERCENT OF YESTERDAY'S 18Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 10...AND 40 PERCENT OF TODAY'S GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11. FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD IS AVERAGE TODAY... 2 ON A SCALE OF 1 TO 5... DUE TO SOME MODEL AND TOOL DISAGREEMENT. THE 8-14 DAY TEMPERATURE PROG IS BASED ON THE KLEIN... NEURAL NET... AND ANALOG SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLENDED HEIGHTS AND FROM INDIVIDUAL GFS AND CANADIAN MODEL SOLUTIONS ... THE CPC AUTO FORECAST... THE CDC FORECAST... AND THE NORTH AMERICAN ENSEMBLE FORECAST SYSTEM EXPERIMENTAL TEMPERATURE PROBABILITY FORECAST FROM THE EMC BIAS-CORRECTED 0Z GFS AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLES. THE 8-14 DAY PRECIPITATION PROG IS BASED ON THE CPC AUTO FORECAST... ANALOG SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLENDED HEIGHTS... CALIBRATED PRECIPITATION FROM THE 0Z OPERATIONAL GFS AND 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN... THE CDC FORECAST... AND THE CALIBRATED PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES FROM THE CPC AND EMC ENSEMBLES. FORECASTER: D. COLLINS NOTES: OPERATIONAL CHANGE: AS OF JULY 5 2005 SHADED MAPS HAVE REPLACED THE CONTOUR-ONLY MAPS ON THE CPC WEB SITE. THE CONTOURED MAPS ARE STILL AVAILABLE AT THEIR CURRENT FILE NAMES - SO DIRECT-LINKED USERS ARE NOT AFFECTED. AWIPS GRAPHICS ARE ALSO NOT AFFECTED BY THIS CHANGE. AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OTHERWISE - FORECASTS INCORPORATE FORECASTER INPUT. THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION. THE NARRATIVE DESCRIPTION OF THE FORECAST PATTERNS FOR TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION FOR BOTH THE 6-10 OR 8-14 DAY PERIODS HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. THE STATE TABLES FOR BOTH THE 6-10 AND 8-14 DAY PERIODS ARE NOW CONTAINED IN THIS MESSAGE...AVAILABLE AS PMDMRD ON AWIPS. THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1971-2000 BASE PERIOD MEANS FOR TEMPERATURE...PRECIPITATION...AND 500-HPA HEIGHTS AS REFERENCE IN THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS. THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON NOVEMBER 16. NEW NOTE EFFECTIVE MAR 16 2004: THE GLOSSARY FORMERLY FOUND AT THIS LOCATION WILL NO LONGER BE TRANSMITTED AS PART OF THIS MESSAGE. IF YOU WISH TO SEE THE DEFINITIONS OF TERMS USED IN THESE MESSAGES... PLEASE GO TO THE CPC WEB PAGE AT (USE LOWER CASE) HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV AND FOLLOW THE APPROPRIATE LINKS. ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3) FOR THE REGION FROM 20N to 70N LATITUDE AND 175E to 60W LONGITUDE INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 19771109 - 19691117 - 19711128 - 19991125 - 19961107 ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4) FOR THE REGION FROM 20N to 70N LATITUDE AND 175E to 60W LONGITUDE INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 19771109 - 19941028 - 19711127 - 19991125 - 19911120 6 to 10 day Outlook Table OUTLOOK FOR NOV 23 - 27, 2006 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON N A OREGON N A NRN CALIF B A SRN CALIF A N IDAHO A A NEVADA A A W MONTANA N A E MONTANA A A WYOMING A N UTAH A N ARIZONA A N COLORADO A B NEW MEXICO A B N DAKOTA A B S DAKOTA A B NEBRASKA A B KANSAS A B OKLAHOMA A B N TEXAS A B S TEXAS A B W TEXAS A B MINNESOTA A B IOWA A B MISSOURI A B ARKANSAS A B LOUISIANA A B WISCONSIN A B ILLINOIS A B MISSISSIPPI A B MICHIGAN A N INDIANA A N OHIO A N KENTUCKY A B TENNESSEE A B ALABAMA A B NEW YORK A N VERMONT A N NEW HAMP A N MAINE N N MASS A N CONN A N RHODE IS A N PENN A N NEW JERSEY A N W VIRGINIA A N MARYLAND A N DELAWARE A A VIRGINIA A A N CAROLINA N A S CAROLINA N A GEORGIA N N FL PNHDL N N FL PENIN N N AK N SLOPE N N AK ALEUTIAN A N AK WESTERN N A AK INT BSN B B AK S INT B B AK SO COAST B B AK PNHDL B B 8 to 14 day Outlook Table OUTLOOK FOR NOV 25 - DEC 01, 2006 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON N A OREGON N A NRN CALIF N A SRN CALIF A N IDAHO A N NEVADA A N W MONTANA A A E MONTANA A N WYOMING A B UTAH A N ARIZONA A B COLORADO A B NEW MEXICO A B N DAKOTA A N S DAKOTA A B NEBRASKA A B KANSAS A B OKLAHOMA A B N TEXAS A B S TEXAS A B W TEXAS A B MINNESOTA A N IOWA A B MISSOURI A B ARKANSAS A B LOUISIANA N B WISCONSIN A N ILLINOIS A B MISSISSIPPI N B MICHIGAN A N INDIANA A B OHIO A N KENTUCKY A B TENNESSEE A B ALABAMA N B NEW YORK A N VERMONT A N NEW HAMP A N MAINE A N MASS A N CONN A N RHODE IS A N PENN A N NEW JERSEY A N W VIRGINIA A B MARYLAND A B DELAWARE A B VIRGINIA A B N CAROLINA A B S CAROLINA N B GEORGIA N B FL PNHDL N B FL PENIN N B AK N SLOPE B N AK ALEUTIAN N N AK WESTERN N N AK INT BSN B N AK S INT B B AK SO COAST B B AK PNHDL B B LEGEND TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN B - BELOW B - BELOW THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS PMDMRD. $$