PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSIONS FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 300 PM EST THU NOV 16 2006 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK VALID FOR NOV 22 - 26 2006 FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD... TODAYS MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE EXPECTED 500-HPA ATMOSPHERIC FLOW PATTERN. TODAYS 0Z AND 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEANS AND 12Z ECMWF OPERATIONAL MODEL AND ENSEMBLE MEAN SHOW GOOD CONTINUITY WITH YESTERDAYS OFFICIAL BLEND FORECAST AND YESTERDAYS 6Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEANS. A BROAD RIDGE IS FORECAST TO DOMINATE THE CONUS... AN EASTERN PACIFIC TROUGH SHOULD IMPACT THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST... AND A TROUGH IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC SHOULD IMPACT THE SOUTHEAST CONUS. SOME ENSEMBLE MEMBERS FORECAST A DEEPER WESTERN ATLANTIC TROUGH WITH LOWER 500-HPA HEIGHTS OVER NEW ENGLAND. THE 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN FORECASTS A SIMILAR 500-HPA FLOW FIELD... HOWEVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC TROUGH IS SLIGHTLY FURTHER WEST OF THE CONUS... AND THE WESTERN ATLANTIC TROUGH IS VERY WEAK. THE OFFICIAL BLEND PLACES GREATER WEIGHTS ON THE 12Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE AND OPERATIONAL MODEL SOLUTIONS... AND MODERATE WEIGHTS ON THE CANADIAN AND 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS. THE AMPLITUDE AND PHASE OF THE LONGWAVE PATTERN FROM THE OFFICIAL BLEND HAS VERY GOOD CONTINUITY WITH YESTERDAYS OFFICIAL FORECAST. WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES PREVAIL FROM THE CALIFORNIA COAST TO THE NORTHEAST... AND DRIER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FROM THE WESTERN PLAINS TO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. BELOW NORMAL TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION ARE EXPECTED FOR THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED IN THE SOUTHEAST DUE TO THE TROUGH FORECAST THERE. NEAR NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST FOR THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION AND THE EAST COAST OF THE CONUS WHERE THERE IS A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE. WESTERN ALASKA IS AGAIN FORECAST TO BE UNDER A STRONG RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS. COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR EASTERN ALASKA AND THE ALASKAN PANHANDLE... WHILE WESTERN ALASKA AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE WARMER THAN NORMAL. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE STATE... WHILE WETTER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS MAY EFFECT THE WESTERN REGIONS OF THE STATE. MOISTURE FROM HURRICANE SERGIO IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC MAY BRING ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION TO AREAS OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA OR THE SOUTHWEST. PLEASE REFER TO THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER (HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV) FOR MORE INFORMATION ON HURRICANE SERGIO. TODAYS OFFICIAL 500-HPA BLEND CONSISTS OF 10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 6Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 8...10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL ECMWF CENTERED ON DAY 7...5 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...20 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...5 PERCENT OF YESTERDAY'S 12Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 7...5 PERCENT OF YESTERDAY'S 18Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 7...15 PERCENT OF TODAY'S CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...AND 30 PERCENT OF TODAY'S EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 7. MODEL(S) OF THE DAY: 12Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD IS ABOVE AVERAGE... 4 ON A SCALE OF 1 TO 5 DUE TO REASONABLY GOOD MODEL AND TOOL AGREEMENT. THE 6-10 DAY TEMPERATURE PROG IS BASED ON THE KLEIN... NEURAL NET... AND ANALOG SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLENDED HEIGHTS AND FROM INDIVIDUAL GFS... ECMWF... AND CANADIAN MODEL SOLUTIONS ... THE CPC AUTO FORECAST... AND THE CDC FORECAST. THE 6-10 DAY PRECIPITATION PROG IS BASED ON THE CPC AUTO FORECAST... ANALOG SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLENDED HEIGHTS... CALIBRATED PRECIPITATION FROM THE 0Z OPERATIONAL GFS AND 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN... THE CDC FORECAST... AND THE CALIBRATED PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES FROM THE CPC AND EMC ENSEMBLES. 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR NOV 24 - 30 2006: FOR WEEK 2... THE 500-HPA LONGWAVE FLOW PATTERN FROM THE OFFICIAL BLEND HAS A SIMILAR PHASE BUT WEAKER AMPLITUDE COMPARED TO THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD FORECAST. THE 0Z AND 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEANS INDICATE A WEAKENING OF THE RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS... BUT ARE OTHERWISE SIMILAR TO THE CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN FORECAST... WHICH MAINTAINS A STRONGER CENTRAL CONUS RIDGE. THE 0Z GFS OPERATIONAL MODEL SOLUTION IS AN OUTLIER AMONG THE MODELS INDICATING A RETROGRESSION OF THE RIDGE FROM THE CONUS INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC. TODAYS OFFICIAL BLEND AGAIN INDICATES SOMEWHAT ZONAL FLOW OVER THE CONUS. A RIDGE IS FORECAST OVER WESTERN ALASKA AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS. THE TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION PATTERNS FOR WEEK 2 OVER THE CONUS ARE GENERALLY SIMILAR TO THE 6-10 DAY FORECAST SHIFTED SLIGHTLY EAST AND WITH LOWER PROBABILITIES. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST FOR THE ENTIRE CONUS... WITH THE EXCEPTIONS OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND THE SOUTHEAST... WHERE NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST. ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST FOR THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST... AND IS POSSIBLE AS FAR SOUTH AS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE GULF STATES. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED IN WESTERN ALASKA DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE FORECAST THERE... WHILE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST FOR EASTERN ALASKA AND THE ALASKAN PANHANDLE DUE TO NORTHERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW. BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FOR SOUTHEASTERN ALASKA AND THE PANHANDLE... WITH SOME REGIONS OF ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE FOR WESTERN ALASKA AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS. THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY HEIGHT PROG CONSISTS OF 5 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 6Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 11...15 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...40 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...AND 40 PERCENT OF TODAY'S CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11. FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD IS AVERAGE TODAY... 3 ON A SCALE OF 1 TO 5... DUE TO MODERATELY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT. THE 8-14 DAY TEMPERATURE PROG IS BASED ON THE KLEIN... NEURAL NET... AND ANALOG SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLENDED HEIGHTS AND FROM INDIVIDUAL GFS AND CANADIAN MODEL SOLUTIONS ... THE CPC AUTO FORECAST... THE CDC FORECAST... AND THE NORTH AMERICAN ENSEMBLE FORECAST SYSTEM EXPERIMENTAL TEMPERATURE PROBABILITY FORECAST FROM THE EMC BIAS-CORRECTED 0Z GFS AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLES. THE 8-14 DAY PRECIPITATION PROG IS BASED ON THE CPC AUTO FORECAST... ANALOG SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLENDED HEIGHTS... CALIBRATED PRECIPITATION FROM THE 0Z OPERATIONAL GFS AND 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN... THE CDC FORECAST... AND THE CALIBRATED PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES FROM THE CPC AND EMC ENSEMBLES. FORECASTER: D. COLLINS NOTES: OPERATIONAL CHANGE: AS OF JULY 5 2005 SHADED MAPS HAVE REPLACED THE CONTOUR-ONLY MAPS ON THE CPC WEB SITE. THE CONTOURED MAPS ARE STILL AVAILABLE AT THEIR CURRENT FILE NAMES - SO DIRECT-LINKED USERS ARE NOT AFFECTED. AWIPS GRAPHICS ARE ALSO NOT AFFECTED BY THIS CHANGE. AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OTHERWISE - FORECASTS INCORPORATE FORECASTER INPUT. THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION. THE NARRATIVE DESCRIPTION OF THE FORECAST PATTERNS FOR TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION FOR BOTH THE 6-10 OR 8-14 DAY PERIODS HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. THE STATE TABLES FOR BOTH THE 6-10 AND 8-14 DAY PERIODS ARE NOW CONTAINED IN THIS MESSAGE...AVAILABLE AS PMDMRD ON AWIPS. THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1971-2000 BASE PERIOD MEANS FOR TEMPERATURE...PRECIPITATION...AND 500-HPA HEIGHTS AS REFERENCE IN THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS. THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON NOVEMBER 16. NEW NOTE EFFECTIVE MAR 16 2004: THE GLOSSARY FORMERLY FOUND AT THIS LOCATION WILL NO LONGER BE TRANSMITTED AS PART OF THIS MESSAGE. IF YOU WISH TO SEE THE DEFINITIONS OF TERMS USED IN THESE MESSAGES... PLEASE GO TO THE CPC WEB PAGE AT (USE LOWER CASE) HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV AND FOLLOW THE APPROPRIATE LINKS. ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3) FOR THE REGION FROM 20N to 70N LATITUDE AND 175E to 60W LONGITUDE INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 19641127 - 19941029 - 19771109 - 19711127 - 19991125 ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4) FOR THE REGION FROM 20N to 70N LATITUDE AND 175E to 60W LONGITUDE INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 19641127 - 19941028 - 19711128 - 19631122 - 19771109 6 to 10 day Outlook Table OUTLOOK FOR NOV 22 - 26, 2006 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON N A OREGON N A NRN CALIF A A SRN CALIF A N IDAHO A A NEVADA A N W MONTANA N A E MONTANA A N WYOMING A N UTAH A N ARIZONA A N COLORADO A B NEW MEXICO A B N DAKOTA A B S DAKOTA A B NEBRASKA A B KANSAS A B OKLAHOMA A B N TEXAS A B S TEXAS A B W TEXAS A B MINNESOTA A B IOWA A B MISSOURI A B ARKANSAS A B LOUISIANA A B WISCONSIN A B ILLINOIS A B MISSISSIPPI A B MICHIGAN A N INDIANA A B OHIO A B KENTUCKY A B TENNESSEE A B ALABAMA N B NEW YORK A N VERMONT N N NEW HAMP N N MAINE N N MASS N N CONN N N RHODE IS N N PENN A N NEW JERSEY A N W VIRGINIA A B MARYLAND A N DELAWARE A N VIRGINIA N B N CAROLINA N N S CAROLINA N N GEORGIA N B FL PNHDL N B FL PENIN B N AK N SLOPE N N AK ALEUTIAN A N AK WESTERN N A AK INT BSN B N AK S INT B B AK SO COAST B B AK PNHDL B B 8 to 14 day Outlook Table OUTLOOK FOR NOV 24 - 30, 2006 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON N A OREGON N A NRN CALIF N A SRN CALIF A A IDAHO N A NEVADA A A W MONTANA N A E MONTANA A A WYOMING A N UTAH A N ARIZONA A N COLORADO A B NEW MEXICO A N N DAKOTA A N S DAKOTA A B NEBRASKA A B KANSAS A B OKLAHOMA A B N TEXAS A B S TEXAS A N W TEXAS A N MINNESOTA A N IOWA A B MISSOURI A B ARKANSAS A B LOUISIANA A B WISCONSIN A N ILLINOIS A B MISSISSIPPI N B MICHIGAN A N INDIANA A N OHIO A N KENTUCKY A B TENNESSEE A B ALABAMA N B NEW YORK A N VERMONT A N NEW HAMP A N MAINE A N MASS A N CONN A N RHODE IS A N PENN A N NEW JERSEY A N W VIRGINIA A N MARYLAND A N DELAWARE A N VIRGINIA A N N CAROLINA A N S CAROLINA N B GEORGIA N B FL PNHDL N B FL PENIN N N AK N SLOPE N N AK ALEUTIAN A N AK WESTERN A N AK INT BSN B N AK S INT B B AK SO COAST B B AK PNHDL B B LEGEND TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN B - BELOW B - BELOW THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS PMDMRD. $$