PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSIONS FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 300 PM EST TUE NOV 14 2006 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK VALID FOR NOV 20 - 24 2006 TODAYS 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN AND YESTERDAYS 12Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE EXPECTED FLOW PATTERN OVER NORTH AMERICA FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD. TROUGHS ARE FORECAST ALONG THE U.S. EAST COAST AND JUST WEST OF THE ALASKAN PANAHANDLE WHILE RIDGES ARE FORECAST OVER THE WEST-CENTRAL CONUS AND THE ALEUTIANS. THE 0Z AND 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEANS ARE GENERALLY LESS AMPLIFIED AND MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE MAIN CIRCULATION FEATURES COMPARED TO THE CANADIAN AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS. THE 0Z AND 6Z OPERATIONAL GFS AND 12Z OPERATIONAL ECMWF ARE SIMILAR TO THEIR RESPECTIVE ENSEMBLE MEANS ALTHOUGH AS USUAL THE OPERATIONAL SOLUTIONS ARE MORE AMPLIFIED THAN THEIR CORRESPONDING ENSEMBLE MEAN FORECASTS. 500-HPA HEIGHTS ARE GENERALLY FORECAST TO BE BELOW NORMAL OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND NORTHWEST CONUS... THE GULF OF ALASKA AND THE ALASKAN PANHANDLE WHILE ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS...ALEUTIANS AND WESTERN ALASKA. THE MODELS SHOW FAIRLY GOOD CONTINUITY WITH RESPECT TO THEIR SOLUTIONS FROM YESTERDAY. THE PNA INDEX WHICH RECENTLY HAS BEEN NEGATIVE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN NEGATIVE OVER THE NEXT TWO WEEKS. THE NAO INDEX WHICH RECENTLY HAS BEEN NEAR ZERO IS FORECAST TO BE NEGATIVE BY DAY 7 AND REMAIN WEAKLY NEGATIVE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK 2 PERIOD. AS HEIGHTS RISE OVER THE WEST-CENTRAL CONUS AND MILD PACIFIC AIR DOMINATES THE REGION... ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO RESULT OVER MUCH OF THE WESTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE COUNTRY. AS THE EASTERN TROUGH MOVES OFFSHORE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE FOR PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST CONUS. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO LIKELY FOR MOST OF ALASKA DUE TO THE STRONG RIDGE FORECAST OVER THE ALEUTIANS AND THE RESULTING ANOMALOUS NORTHERLY FLOW EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE STATE. THE RIDGE EXPECTED OVER THE WEST-CENTRAL CONUS IS ALSO LIKELY TO RESULT IN BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR MUCH OF THE COUNTRY WHILE THE TROUGH FORECAST OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE THE WETTER THAN NORMAL PATTERN FOR THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. MUCH OF ALASKA IS EXPECTED TO HAVE BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION AS MOIST MARITIME AIR SHOULD BE LIMITED BY THE RIDGE FORECAST OVER THE ALEUTIANS. TODAYS OFFICIAL 500-HPA BLEND CONSISTS OF 10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 0Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 8...5 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 6Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 8...10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL ECMWF CENTERED ON DAY 7...15 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...15 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...20 PERCENT OF TODAY'S CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...AND 25 PERCENT OF TODAY'S EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 7. MODEL(S) OF THE DAY: 12Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD IS ABOVE AVERAGE... 4 ON A SCALE OF 1 TO 5 DUE TO GOOD MODEL AND TOOL AGREEMENT. THE 6-10 DAY TEMPERATURE PROG IS BASED ON THE KLEIN... NEURAL NET... AND ANALOG SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLENDED HEIGHTS ... THE CPC AUTO FORECAST... THE CDC FORECAST... BIAS CORRECTED 850-HPA TEMPERATURES FROM THE 0Z OPERATIONAL GFS... KLEIN AND NEURAL NET PERCENTAGES FROM THE GFS AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLES... AND UNCALIBRATED AND CALIBRATED 2-METER TEMPERATURES FROM THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN. THE 6-10 DAY PRECIPITATION PROG IS BASED ON THE THE CPC AUTO FORECAST... ANALOG AND NEURAL NET SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLENDED HEIGHTS... CALIBRATED PRECIPITATION FROM THE 0Z OPERATIONAL GFS AND 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN... THE CDC FORECAST... AND THE NEURAL NET PROBABILITIES FROM THE GFS AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLES. 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR NOV 22 - 28 2006: FOR WEEK 2 THE GFS SUPERENSEMBLE AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEANS DEPICT A VERY SLOW PROGRESSION AND DEAMPLIFICATION OF THE 500-HPA FLOW PATTERN FROM THEIR FORECASTS FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD. AS A RESULT THE CONUS IS FORECAST TO BE DOMINATED BY FAST ZONAL FLOW. A RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD OVER WESTERN ALAKSKA WHILE A TROUGH IS FORECAST OVER THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE STATE. THE 0Z AND 6Z OPERATIONAL GFS ALSO DEPICT A GENERAL ZONAL FLOW PATTERN BUT INDICATE SOME DIFFERENCES WITH RESPECT TO TIMING AND AMPLITUDE FOR INDIVIDUAL CIRCULATION FEATURES. 500-HPA HEIGHTS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BE NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL OVER FLORIDA... NEW ENGLAND... THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND ALASKAN PANHANDLE AND NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CONUS AND ALASKA. THE MODELS SHOW FAIRLY GOOD CONTINUITY WITH RESPECT TO THEIR SOLUTIONS FROM YESTERDAY ALTHOUGH THE OPERATIONAL SOLUTIONS ARE A BIT LESS AMPLIFIED TODAY. THE EXPECTED 8-14 DAY TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION ANOMALY PATTERNS ARE QUITE SIMILAR TO THOSE FORECAST FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD EXCEPT DISPLACED A LITTLE TO THE EAST. THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY HEIGHT PROG CONSISTS OF 10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 0Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 11...5 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 6Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 11...15 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...35 PERCENT OF TODAY'S GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...AND 25 PERCENT OF TODAY'S CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11. FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD IS ABOVE AVERAGE TODAY... 4 ON A SCALE OF 1 TO 5... DUE TO FAIRLY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT AND CONTINUITY WITH THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD. THE 8-14 DAY TEMPERATURE PROG IS BASED ON THE KLEIN... NEURAL NET... AND ANALOG SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLENDED HEIGHTS ... THE CPC AUTO FORECAST... BIAS CORRECTED 850-HPA TEMPERATURES FROM THE 0Z OPERATIONAL GFS... KLEIN AND NEURAL NET PERCENTAGES FROM THE GFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLES... THE CDC FORECAST TOOL... AND CALIBRATED AND UNCALIBRATED 2-METER TEMPERATURES FROM THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN. THE 8-14 DAY PRECIPITATION PROG IS BASED ON THE THE CPC AUTO FORECAST... ANALOG AND NEURAL NET SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLENDED HEIGHTS... CALIBRATED PRECIPITATION FROM THE 0Z OPERATIONAL GFS AND 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN... THE CDC FORECAST... AND THE NEURAL NET PROABILITIES FROM THE GFS AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEANS. FORECASTER: R. SCHECHTER NOTES: OPERATIONAL CHANGE: AS OF JULY 5 2005 SHADED MAPS HAVE REPLACED THE CONTOUR-ONLY MAPS ON THE CPC WEB SITE. THE CONTOURED MAPS ARE STILL AVAILABLE AT THEIR CURRENT FILE NAMES - SO DIRECT-LINKED USERS ARE NOT AFFECTED. AWIPS GRAPHICS ARE ALSO NOT AFFECTED BY THIS CHANGE. AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OTHERWISE - FORECASTS INCORPORATE FORECASTER INPUT. THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION. THE NARRATIVE DESCRIPTION OF THE FORECAST PATTERNS FOR TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION FOR BOTH THE 6-10 OR 8-14 DAY PERIODS HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. THE STATE TABLES FOR BOTH THE 6-10 AND 8-14 DAY PERIODS ARE NOW CONTAINED IN THIS MESSAGE...AVAILABLE AS PMDMRD ON AWIPS. THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1971-2000 BASE PERIOD MEANS FOR TEMPERATURE...PRECIPITATION...AND 500-HPA HEIGHTS AS REFERENCE IN THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS. THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON NOVEMBER 16. NEW NOTE EFFECTIVE MAR 16 2004: THE GLOSSARY FORMERLY FOUND AT THIS LOCATION WILL NO LONGER BE TRANSMITTED AS PART OF THIS MESSAGE. IF YOU WISH TO SEE THE DEFINITIONS OF TERMS USED IN THESE MESSAGES... PLEASE GO TO THE CPC WEB PAGE AT (USE LOWER CASE) HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV AND FOLLOW THE APPROPRIATE LINKS. ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3) FOR THE REGION FROM 20N to 70N LATITUDE AND 175E to 60W LONGITUDE INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 19631122 - 19641127 - 19561031 - 19941029 - 19631025 ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4) FOR THE REGION FROM 20N to 70N LATITUDE AND 175E to 60W LONGITUDE INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 19631122 - 19641127 - 19941029 - 19631025 - 19851024 6 to 10 day Outlook Table OUTLOOK FOR NOV 20 - 24, 2006 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON N A OREGON A A NRN CALIF A A SRN CALIF A N IDAHO A A NEVADA A A W MONTANA A N E MONTANA A N WYOMING A N UTAH A N ARIZONA A N COLORADO A B NEW MEXICO A B N DAKOTA A B S DAKOTA A B NEBRASKA A B KANSAS A B OKLAHOMA A B N TEXAS A B S TEXAS A B W TEXAS A B MINNESOTA A B IOWA A B MISSOURI A B ARKANSAS A B LOUISIANA N B WISCONSIN A B ILLINOIS A B MISSISSIPPI N B MICHIGAN A N INDIANA A B OHIO N N KENTUCKY N B TENNESSEE N B ALABAMA N B NEW YORK N N VERMONT N N NEW HAMP N B MAINE A N MASS N B CONN N B RHODE IS N B PENN N B NEW JERSEY N B W VIRGINIA N B MARYLAND N B DELAWARE N B VIRGINIA N B N CAROLINA B B S CAROLINA B B GEORGIA B B FL PNHDL B B FL PENIN B B AK N SLOPE B N AK ALEUTIAN B B AK WESTERN B B AK INT BSN B B AK S INT B B AK SO COAST B B AK PNHDL B B 8 to 14 day Outlook Table OUTLOOK FOR NOV 22 - 28, 2006 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON N A OREGON N A NRN CALIF N A SRN CALIF N N IDAHO N N NEVADA A N W MONTANA N N E MONTANA N N WYOMING A N UTAH A B ARIZONA A N COLORADO A B NEW MEXICO A B N DAKOTA N N S DAKOTA A N NEBRASKA A B KANSAS A B OKLAHOMA A B N TEXAS A B S TEXAS A B W TEXAS A B MINNESOTA A N IOWA A B MISSOURI A B ARKANSAS A B LOUISIANA A B WISCONSIN A N ILLINOIS A B MISSISSIPPI A B MICHIGAN A N INDIANA A B OHIO A B KENTUCKY A B TENNESSEE A B ALABAMA N B NEW YORK A B VERMONT N B NEW HAMP N B MAINE N B MASS N B CONN A B RHODE IS N B PENN A B NEW JERSEY A B W VIRGINIA A B MARYLAND A B DELAWARE A B VIRGINIA A B N CAROLINA A B S CAROLINA N B GEORGIA N B FL PNHDL N B FL PENIN N B AK N SLOPE N N AK ALEUTIAN N B AK WESTERN N B AK INT BSN B B AK S INT B B AK SO COAST B B AK PNHDL B B LEGEND TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN B - BELOW B - BELOW THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS PMDMRD. $$