PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSIONS FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 300 PM EST MON NOV 13 2006 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK VALID FOR NOV 19 - 23 2006 FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD... TODAYS MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE EXPECTED OVERALL 500-HPA FLOW PATTERN. TODAYS 0Z AND 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEANS SHOW GOOD CONTINUITY WITH YESTERDAYS 12Z AND 18Z ENSEMBLE MEANS. ALL ENSEMBLE MEANS CONTINUE TO FORECAST A LARGE RIDGE OVER THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS CENTERED WEST OF THE DATELINE WITH A TROUGH-RIDGE-TROUGH PATTERN DOWNSTREAM. THE 0Z AND 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEANS INDICATE ONE TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA... AND A SECOND TROUGH EAST OF THE U.S. COAST OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN. THE 12Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN AND THE 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN FORECAST THE FLOW PATTERN TO BE SHIFTED FURTHER TO THE WEST WITH THE FIRST TROUGH CENTERED NEARER TO THE ALASKAN PANHANDLE... AND THE SECOND TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. ONE AREA OF SIGNIFICANT DISAGREEMENT AMONG MODELS AND LARGE SPREAD AMONG ENESEMBLE MEMBERS IS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST... WHERE SOME MODEL SOLUTIONS HAVE A BROADER TROUGH IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC EXTENDING INTO THE CONUS AND A NARROW RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS... WHILE OTHER MEMBERS HAVE A BROADER RIDGE FROM THE WEST COAST INTO THE EASTERN CONUS. THIS FLOW PATTERN SHOULD PRODUCE WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER THE WESTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE CONUS WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF THE COASTAL PACIFIC NORTHWEST... AND SHOULD LEAD TO COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC INTO THE SOUTHEAST. THE STRONG WESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET IN THE WEST IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO BRING ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPTATION TO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE EASTERN TROUGH IN THE NORTHEAST WHERE INCREASED SHORTWAVE ENERGY IS FORECAST DURING THE PERIOD. A NUMBER OF 12Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS DEVELOP A CLOSED LOW NEAR THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS EARLY IN THE PERIOD WHICH COULD BRING GREATER THAN NORMAL PRECIPITATION TO THE NORTHEAST FROM THE ALLEGHENIES TO THE COAST... AND POSSIBLY SNOW IN SOME INLAND AREAS. FOR ALASKA... BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE AGAIN PROGGED FOR THE STATE DUE TO ANOMALOUS NORTHERLY FLOW. BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF ALASKA AND THE PANHANDLE. TODAYS OFFICIAL 500-HPA BLEND CONSISTS OF 10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 6Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 8...15 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL ECMWF CENTERED ON DAY 7...5 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...20 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...5 PERCENT OF TODAY'S GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...20 PERCENT OF TODAY'S CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...AND 25 PERCENT OF TODAY'S EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 7. MODEL(S) OF THE DAY: 12Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD IS ABOVE AVERAGE... 4 ON A SCALE OF 1 TO 5 DUE TO GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT. THE 6-10 DAY TEMPERATURE PROG IS BASED ON THE KLEIN... NEURAL NET... AND ANALOG SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLENDED HEIGHTS ... THE CPC AUTO FORECAST... BIAS CORRECTED 850-HPA TEMPERATURES FROM THE 0Z OPERATIONAL GFS... AND KLEIN AND NEURAL NET PERCENTAGES FROM THE GFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLES. THE CDC FORECAST TOOL WAS UNAVAILABLE TODAY. THE 6-10 DAY PRECIPITATION PROG IS BASED ON THE THE CPC AUTO FORECAST... ANALOG AND NEURAL NET SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLENDED HEIGHTS... AND CALIBRATED PRECIPITATION FROM THE 0Z OPERATIONAL GFS AND 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN. 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR NOV 21 - 27 2006: FOR WEEK 2... THE 500-HPA FLOW PATTERN IS FORECAST TO BE SIMILAR TO THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD... WITH A SLIGHT EASTWARD PROGRESSION... AND REDUCTION OF THE HEIGHT ANOMALIES. THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEANS AND THE GFS OPERATIONAL RUNS INDICATE THAT THE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WILL MOVE SLIGHTLY FURTHER EAST POSSIBLY BRINGING TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO NORMAL IN THE NORTHWEST. THE CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN AGAIN HAS A LESS PROGRESSIVE PATTERN AS WITH THE 6-10 DAY FORECAST. THIS FLOW PATTERN SHOULD FLOOD MOST OF THE CONUS WITH MILD PACIFIC AIR... LEADING TO WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES FROM THE PACIFIC COAST TO THE MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO VALLIES. COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN INTO WEEK 2 FOR THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND FLORIDA. THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO HAVE ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION... WHILE THE CENTRAL CONUS SHOULD BE DRIER THAN NORMAL... AND THE CENTRAL EAST COAST SHOULD BE WETTER THAN NORMAL. ALASKA IS ONCE AGAIN FORECAST TO BE COLDER THAN NORMAL DUE TO STRONG ANOMALOUS NORTHERLY FLOW... WITH BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION EXPECTED FOR THE SOUTH OF THE STATE. THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY HEIGHT PROG CONSISTS OF 5 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 0Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 11...15 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 6Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 11...30 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...30 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...AND 20 PERCENT OF TODAY'S CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11. FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD IS AVERAGE TODAY... 4 ON A SCALE OF 1 TO 5... DUE TO FAIRLY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT AND CONTINUITY WITH THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD. THE 8-14 DAY TEMPERATURE PROG IS BASED ON THE KLEIN... NEURAL NET... AND ANALOG SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLENDED HEIGHTS ... THE CPC AUTO FORECAST... BIAS CORRECTED 850-HPA TEMPERATURES FROM THE 0Z OPERATIONAL GFS... AND KLEIN AND NEURAL NET PERCENTAGES FROM THE GFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLES. THE CDC FORECAST TOOL WAS UNAVAILABLE TODAY. THE 8-14 DAY PRECIPITATION PROG IS BASED ON THE THE CPC AUTO FORECAST... ANALOG AND NEURAL NET SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLENDED HEIGHTS... AND CALIBRATED PRECIPITATION FROM THE 0Z OPERATIONAL GFS AND 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN. FORECASTER: D. COLLINS NOTES: OPERATIONAL CHANGE: AS OF JULY 5 2005 SHADED MAPS HAVE REPLACED THE CONTOUR-ONLY MAPS ON THE CPC WEB SITE. THE CONTOURED MAPS ARE STILL AVAILABLE AT THEIR CURRENT FILE NAMES - SO DIRECT-LINKED USERS ARE NOT AFFECTED. AWIPS GRAPHICS ARE ALSO NOT AFFECTED BY THIS CHANGE. AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OTHERWISE - FORECASTS INCORPORATE FORECASTER INPUT. THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION. THE NARRATIVE DESCRIPTION OF THE FORECAST PATTERNS FOR TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION FOR BOTH THE 6-10 OR 8-14 DAY PERIODS HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. THE STATE TABLES FOR BOTH THE 6-10 AND 8-14 DAY PERIODS ARE NOW CONTAINED IN THIS MESSAGE...AVAILABLE AS PMDMRD ON AWIPS. THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1971-2000 BASE PERIOD MEANS FOR TEMPERATURE...PRECIPITATION...AND 500-HPA HEIGHTS AS REFERENCE IN THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS. THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON NOVEMBER 16. NEW NOTE EFFECTIVE MAR 16 2004: THE GLOSSARY FORMERLY FOUND AT THIS LOCATION WILL NO LONGER BE TRANSMITTED AS PART OF THIS MESSAGE. IF YOU WISH TO SEE THE DEFINITIONS OF TERMS USED IN THESE MESSAGES... PLEASE GO TO THE CPC WEB PAGE AT (USE LOWER CASE) HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV AND FOLLOW THE APPROPRIATE LINKS. ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3) FOR THE REGION FROM 20N to 70N LATITUDE AND 175E to 60W LONGITUDE INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 19631122 - 19631025 - 19641127 - 19941028 - 19821118 ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4) FOR THE REGION FROM 20N to 70N LATITUDE AND 175E to 60W LONGITUDE INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 19631122 - 19631026 - 19941028 - 19621110 - 19641126 6 to 10 day Outlook Table OUTLOOK FOR NOV 19 - 23, 2006 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON A A OREGON A A NRN CALIF A A SRN CALIF A N IDAHO A A NEVADA A A W MONTANA A A E MONTANA A N WYOMING A N UTAH A N ARIZONA A B COLORADO A B NEW MEXICO A B N DAKOTA A B S DAKOTA A B NEBRASKA A B KANSAS A B OKLAHOMA A B N TEXAS A B S TEXAS A B W TEXAS A B MINNESOTA A B IOWA A B MISSOURI A B ARKANSAS N B LOUISIANA N B WISCONSIN A B ILLINOIS N B MISSISSIPPI N B MICHIGAN N B INDIANA B N OHIO B N KENTUCKY B N TENNESSEE B N ALABAMA B B NEW YORK B A VERMONT N A NEW HAMP A A MAINE A A MASS N A CONN N A RHODE IS N A PENN B A NEW JERSEY B A W VIRGINIA B A MARYLAND B A DELAWARE B A VIRGINIA B A N CAROLINA B A S CAROLINA B A GEORGIA B N FL PNHDL B B FL PENIN B N AK N SLOPE B A AK ALEUTIAN B B AK WESTERN B B AK INT BSN B B AK S INT B B AK SO COAST B B AK PNHDL B B 8 to 14 day Outlook Table OUTLOOK FOR NOV 21 - 27, 2006 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON A A OREGON A A NRN CALIF A A SRN CALIF A N IDAHO A A NEVADA A A W MONTANA A A E MONTANA A N WYOMING A N UTAH A N ARIZONA A N COLORADO A B NEW MEXICO A B N DAKOTA A N S DAKOTA A B NEBRASKA A B KANSAS A B OKLAHOMA A B N TEXAS A B S TEXAS A B W TEXAS A B MINNESOTA A B IOWA A B MISSOURI A B ARKANSAS A B LOUISIANA A B WISCONSIN A B ILLINOIS A B MISSISSIPPI A B MICHIGAN A B INDIANA A B OHIO A N KENTUCKY A A TENNESSEE N A ALABAMA N N NEW YORK N N VERMONT N N NEW HAMP N N MAINE N N MASS N N CONN N N RHODE IS N N PENN N N NEW JERSEY N N W VIRGINIA N A MARYLAND N N DELAWARE N N VIRGINIA N A N CAROLINA B A S CAROLINA B A GEORGIA B N FL PNHDL B N FL PENIN B B AK N SLOPE B A AK ALEUTIAN B B AK WESTERN B B AK INT BSN B B AK S INT B B AK SO COAST B B AK PNHDL B B LEGEND TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN B - BELOW B - BELOW THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS PMDMRD. $$