PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSIONS FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 300 PM EST FRI NOV 10 2006 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK VALID FOR NOV 16 - 20 2006 TODAYS 0Z AND 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEANS... CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN AND YESTERDAYS 12Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE EXPECTED 500-HPA FLOW PATTERN OVER NORTH AMERICA FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD. RIDGES ARE FORECAST OVER THE NORTHWEST ATLANTIC... THE WESTERN CONUS AND THE FAR WESTERN ALEUTIANS WHILE TROUGHS ARE FORECAST OVER THE EAST-CENTRAL CONUS AND THE GULF OF ALASKA. TODAYS OPERATIONAL 0Z AND 6Z GFS AND YESTERDAYS OPERATIONAL 12Z ECMWF ARE IN BASIC AGREEMENT WITH THE ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS WITH THE MAIN DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE SOLUTIONS BEING IN REGARD TO HOW FAST THE HEIGHT RISES OVER THE WESTERN CONUS SPREAD EASTWARD. 500-HPA HEIGHTS ARE GENERALLY FORECAST TO BE ABOVE NORMAL OVER EASTERN CANADA... THE NORTHEAST AND SOUTHWEST CONUS... WESTERN ALASKA... AND THE ALEUTIANS... AND NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CONUS AND ALASKA. THE MODELS MOSTLY SHOW FAIR CONTINUITY WITH RESPECT TO THEIR SOLUTIONS FROM YESTERDAY AND INDICATE THAT HEIGHTS WILL RISE OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. THE OPERATIONAL 6Z GFS WAS AN OUTLIER YESTERDAY AS IT FORECAST A DEEP CLOSED-OFF TROUGH OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WHICH IS ABSENT IN TODAYS RUN BRINGING IT IN MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE OTHER MODEL SOLUTIONS. THE PNA INDEX WHICH RECENTLY HAS BEEN NEAR ZERO IS FORECAST TO BE NEGATIVE FOR THE NEXT TWO WEEKS. THE NAO INDEX WHICH RECENTLY HAS BEEN POSITIVE IS FORECAST TO BE NEGATIVE BY DAY 7 AND THEN REMAIN NEGATIVE THROUGH THE END OF WEEK 2...ALTHOUGH THERE IS A LARGE AMOUNT OF SPREAD AMONG THE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS FOR THE LATER TIME PERIODS. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NEW ENGLAND STATES DUE TO ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS AND ANOMALOUS SOUTHERLY FLOW. AN AREA OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS ALSO POSSIBLE OVER THE SOUTHWEST CONUS AS HEIGHTS THERE ARE FORECAST TO BE ABOVE NORMAL. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST OVER ALASKA DUE TO ANOMALOUS NORTHERLY FLOW. ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHWESTERN CONUS DUE TO A SERIES OF STORMS MOVING EAST FROM THE PACIFIC... AND NORTHEASTERN CONUS DUE TO CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE BROAD TROUGH FORECAST OVER THE EAST-CENTRAL CONUS. BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS AS HEIGHTS RISE IN THAT AREA... AND OVER MUCH OF ALASKA DUE TO THE STRONG RIDGE FORECAST TO BE CENTERED WEST OF THE STATE WHICH PREVENTS MARITIME AIR FROM REACHING THE AREA. TODAYS OFFICIAL 500-HPA BLEND CONSISTS OF 10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 0Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 8...5 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 6Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 8...10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL ECMWF CENTERED ON DAY 7...20 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...15 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...15 PERCENT OF TODAY'S CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...AND 25 PERCENT OF TODAY'S EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 7. MODEL(S) OF THE DAY: ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD IS ABOVE AVERAGE... 4 ON A SCALE OF 1 TO 5 DUE TO GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT AND FAIR AGREEMENT AMONG THE FORECAST TOOLS. THE 6-10 DAY TEMPERATURE PROG IS BASED ON THE KLEIN... NEURAL NET... AND ANALOG SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLENDED HEIGHTS ... THE CPC AUTO FORECAST... BIAS CORRECTED 850-HPA TEMPERATURES FROM THE 0Z OPERATIONAL GFS... UNCALIBRATED AND CALIBRATED 2-METER TEMPERATURES FROM THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN... AND KLEIN AND NEURAL NET PERCENTAGES FROM THE GFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLES. THE 6-10 DAY PRECIPITATION PROG IS BASED ON THE CPC AUTO FORECAST... CPC AND EMC CALIBRATED PRECIPITATION PERCENTAGES FROM THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS... ANALOG AND NEURAL NET SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLENDED HEIGHTS... AND CALIBRATED PRECIPITATION FROM THE 0Z OPERATIONAL GFS AND 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN. 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR NOV 18 - 24 2006: FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD THE GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN DEPICT AN EASTWARD PROGRESSION AND SLIGHT DEAMPLIFICATION OF THE MAIN CIRCULATION FEATURES FROM THEIR 500-HPA FORECASTS FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD. THE BROAD TROUGH OVER THE EAST-CENTRAL CONUS IS PROGGED TO ADVANCE TOWARDS SOUTHEASTERN CANADA AS HEIGHTS SLOWLY RISE OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE U.S.. THE RESULT IS A COAST TO COAST ZONAL FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS.THE OPERATIONAL 0Z AND 6Z GFS ARE A LITLE MORE AMPLIFIED WITH THE OVERALL CIRCULATION PATTERN AND DEPICT A STRONGER RIDGE NEAR THE GULF COAST. HEIGHTS ARE GENERALLY FORECAST TO BE NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL OVER EASTERN CANADA... WESTERN ALASKA AND THE ALEUTIANS...AND MOST OF THE CONUS... EXCEPT OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND SOUTHEAST STATES WHERE NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST. NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS ARE ALSO EXPECTED OVER SOUTHEAST ALASKA AND THE ALASKAN PAHNANDLE. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE NORMAL OVER MUCH OF THE CONUS AS HEIGHTS RISE AND THE ZONAL FLOW FLOODS THE COUNTRY WITH MILD PACIFIC AIR. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL OVER ALASKA DUE TO THE AMPLIFIED RIDGE WEST OF THE STATE CONTINUING THE ANOMALOUS NORTHERLY FLOW OVER THE REGION. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE NORMAL OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST DUE TO FLOW AHEAD OF THE GULF OF ALASKA TROUGH. NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY FOR MUCH OF THE REST OF THE CONUS AS HEIGHTS RISE AND THE FLOW PATTERN BECOMES MORE ZONAL. BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS ALSO LIKELY OVER MUCH OF ALASKA DUE TO SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONG RIDGE FORECAST TO BE CENTERED WEST OF THE REGION AND A LACK OF PACIFIC MOISTURE. THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY HEIGHT PROG CONSISTS OF 10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 0Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 11...5 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 6Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 11...25 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...15 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...20 PERCENT OF TODAY'S GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...AND 25 PERCENT OF TODAY'S CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11. FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD IS NEAR AVERAGE TODAY... 3 ON A SCALE OF 1 TO 5... DUE TO DECENT MODEL AGREEMENT ... OFFSET BY THE DIFFICULTY OF MAKING FORECASTS WITH A RELATIVELY FLAT 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALY PATTERN. THE 8-14 DAY TEMPERATURE PROG IS BASED ON THE KLEIN... NEURAL NET... AND ANALOG SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLENDED HEIGHTS ... THE CPC AUTO FORECAST... 850-HPA BIAS-CORRECTED TEMPERATURES FROM THE 0Z OPERATIONAL GFS... KLEIN AND NEURAL NET PERCENTAGES FROM THE GFS ENSEMBLES AND UNCALIBRATED AND CALIBRATED 2-METER TEMPERATURES FROM THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN. THE 8-14 DAY PRECIPITATION PROG IS BASED ON THE CPC AUTO FORECAST... EMC AND CPC CALIBRATED PRECIPITATION FROM THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS... ANALOG AND NEURAL NET SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLENDED HEIGHTS AND CALIBRATED PRECIPITATION FROM THE 0Z OPERATIONAL GFS AND 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN. FORECASTER: R. SCHECHTER NOTES: OPERATIONAL CHANGE: AS OF JULY 5 2005 SHADED MAPS HAVE REPLACED THE CONTOUR-ONLY MAPS ON THE CPC WEB SITE. THE CONTOURED MAPS ARE STILL AVAILABLE AT THEIR CURRENT FILE NAMES - SO DIRECT-LINKED USERS ARE NOT AFFECTED. AWIPS GRAPHICS ARE ALSO NOT AFFECTED BY THIS CHANGE. AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OTHERWISE - FORECASTS INCORPORATE FORECASTER INPUT. THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION. THE NARRATIVE DESCRIPTION OF THE FORECAST PATTERNS FOR TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION FOR BOTH THE 6-10 OR 8-14 DAY PERIODS HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. THE STATE TABLES FOR BOTH THE 6-10 AND 8-14 DAY PERIODS ARE NOW CONTAINED IN THIS MESSAGE...AVAILABLE AS PMDMRD ON AWIPS. THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1971-2000 BASE PERIOD MEANS FOR TEMPERATURE...PRECIPITATION...AND 500-HPA HEIGHTS AS REFERENCE IN THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS. THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON NOVEMBER 16. NEW NOTE EFFECTIVE MAR 16 2004: THE GLOSSARY FORMERLY FOUND AT THIS LOCATION WILL NO LONGER BE TRANSMITTED AS PART OF THIS MESSAGE. IF YOU WISH TO SEE THE DEFINITIONS OF TERMS USED IN THESE MESSAGES... PLEASE GO TO THE CPC WEB PAGE AT (USE LOWER CASE) HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV AND FOLLOW THE APPROPRIATE LINKS. ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3) FOR THE REGION FROM 20N to 70N LATITUDE AND 175E to 60W LONGITUDE INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 19631124 - 19501102 - 19901028 - 19621110 - 19871112 ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4) FOR THE REGION FROM 20N to 70N LATITUDE AND 175E to 60W LONGITUDE INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 19901110 - 19821023 - 19631123 - 19501122 - 19901028 6 to 10 day Outlook Table OUTLOOK FOR NOV 16 - 20, 2006 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON N A OREGON N A NRN CALIF A N SRN CALIF A B IDAHO A A NEVADA A N W MONTANA N A E MONTANA N N WYOMING A N UTAH A B ARIZONA A B COLORADO A B NEW MEXICO A B N DAKOTA N N S DAKOTA N N NEBRASKA A B KANSAS A B OKLAHOMA A B N TEXAS A B S TEXAS A B W TEXAS A B MINNESOTA N N IOWA N N MISSOURI N N ARKANSAS A B LOUISIANA A B WISCONSIN N A ILLINOIS N N MISSISSIPPI N N MICHIGAN N A INDIANA N A OHIO N A KENTUCKY N N TENNESSEE N N ALABAMA N N NEW YORK A A VERMONT A A NEW HAMP A A MAINE A A MASS A A CONN A A RHODE IS A A PENN A A NEW JERSEY A A W VIRGINIA N A MARYLAND A A DELAWARE A A VIRGINIA A A N CAROLINA N N S CAROLINA N N GEORGIA N N FL PNHDL N N FL PENIN N N AK N SLOPE B N AK ALEUTIAN B B AK WESTERN B B AK INT BSN B B AK S INT B B AK SO COAST B B AK PNHDL B N 8 to 14 day Outlook Table OUTLOOK FOR NOV 18 - 24, 2006 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON N A OREGON N A NRN CALIF N A SRN CALIF A N IDAHO N A NEVADA A A W MONTANA N A E MONTANA N A WYOMING A N UTAH A N ARIZONA A N COLORADO A N NEW MEXICO A B N DAKOTA N A S DAKOTA A N NEBRASKA A B KANSAS A B OKLAHOMA A B N TEXAS A B S TEXAS A B W TEXAS A B MINNESOTA A N IOWA A B MISSOURI A B ARKANSAS A B LOUISIANA A B WISCONSIN A N ILLINOIS A B MISSISSIPPI A B MICHIGAN A N INDIANA A B OHIO A N KENTUCKY A B TENNESSEE A B ALABAMA A B NEW YORK A N VERMONT A N NEW HAMP A N MAINE A N MASS A B CONN A B RHODE IS A B PENN A B NEW JERSEY A B W VIRGINIA A B MARYLAND A B DELAWARE A B VIRGINIA A B N CAROLINA N B S CAROLINA N B GEORGIA N B FL PNHDL N B FL PENIN N N AK N SLOPE B B AK ALEUTIAN B B AK WESTERN B B AK INT BSN B B AK S INT B B AK SO COAST B B AK PNHDL B N LEGEND TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN B - BELOW B - BELOW THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS PMDMRD. $$