PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSIONS FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 300 PM EST THU NOV 09 2006 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK VALID FOR NOV 15 - 19 2006 TODAYS 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN AND YESTERDAYS 12Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE EXPECTED 500-HPA FLOW PATTERN OVER NORTH AMERICA FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD. TODAYS 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN IS A LITTLE DEEPER WITH THE CENTRAL U.S. TROUGH COMPARED TO THE OTHER ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS. WEAK RIDGES ARE FORECAST OVER EASTERN CANADA AND OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WHILE A STRONGER RIDGE IS FORECAST OVER THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS. THE EASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE CONUS IS FORECAST TO BE DOMINATED BY A BROAD TROUGH WHILE A SHARPER TROUGH IS PROGGED OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA. THE OPERATIONAL 0Z GFS AND OPERATIONAL 12Z ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS WHILE THE 6Z OPERATIONAL GFS CLOSES OFF A VERY DEEP TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. THE OPERATIONAL 6Z GFS IS NOT SUPPORTED BY ANY OF THE OTHER MODEL SOLUTIONS AND WAS DISCOUNTED TODAY. 500-HPA HEIGHTS ARE GENERALLY FORECAST TO BE ABOVE NORMAL OVER THE NORTHEAST AND SOUTHWEST CONUS... WESTERN ALASKA... AND THE ALEUTIANS... AND BELOW NORMAL OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CONUS AND ALASKA. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE OPERATIONAL 6Z GFS WHICH HAS A MUCH DEEPER TROUGH FORECAST OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY TODAY THE MODELS GENERALLY SHOW FAIRLY GOOD CONTINUITY WITH REPSECT TO THEIR SOLUTIONS FROM YESTERDAY. THE PNA INDEX WHICH RECENTLY HAS BEEN NEAR ZERO IS FORECAST TO BE NEGATIVE FOR THE NEXT TWO WEEKS. THE NAO INDEX WHICH RECENTLY HAS BEEN POSITIVE IS FORECAST TO BE NEGATIVE BY DAY 7 AND THEN REMAIN NEGATIVE THROUGH THE END OF WEEK 2...ALTHOUGH THERE IS A LARGE AMOUNT OF SPREAD AMONG THE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS FOR THE LATER TIME PERIODS. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NEW ENGLAND STATES DUE TO ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS AND ANOMALOUS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. AN AREA OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS ALSO POSSIBLE OVER THE SOUTHWEST CONUS AS HEIGHTS THERE ARE FORECAST TO BE ABOVE NORMAL. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST OVER ALASKA DUE TO ANOMALOUS NORTHERLY FLOW... AND OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL CONUS DUE TO THE BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS FORECAST FOR THAT REGION. ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHWESTERN CONUS DUE TO A SERIES OF STORMS MOVING EAST FROM THE PACIFIC... AND EASTERN CONUS DUE TO CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE BROAD TROUGH FORECAST OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS AS HEIGHTS RISE IN THAT AREA... AND OVER MUCH OF ALASKA DUE TO THE STRONG RIDGE FORECAST TO BE CENTERED WEST OF THE STATE. TODAYS OFFICIAL 500-HPA BLEND CONSISTS OF 10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 0Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 8...15 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL ECMWF CENTERED ON DAY 7...25 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...15 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...AND 35 PERCENT OF TODAY'S EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 7. MODEL(S) OF THE DAY: ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD IS ABOVE AVERAGE... 4 ON A SCALE OF 1 TO 5 DUE TO GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT AND FAIR AGREEMENT AMONG THE FORECAST TOOLS. THE 6-10 DAY TEMPERATURE PROG IS BASED ON THE KLEIN... NEURAL NET... AND ANALOG SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLENDED HEIGHTS ... THE CPC AUTO FORECAST... BIAS CORRECTED 850-HPA TEMPERATURES FROM THE 0Z OPERATIONAL GFS... UNCALIBRATED AND CALIBRATED 2-METER TEMPERATURES FROM THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN... AND KLEIN AND NEURAL NET PERCENTAGES FROM THE GFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLES. THE 6-10 DAY PRECIPITATION PROG IS BASED ON THE CPC AUTO FORECAST...THE CDC FORECAST TOOL... CPC AND EMC CALIBRATED PRECIPITATION PERCENTAGES FROM THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS... ANALOG AND NEURAL NET SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLENDED HEIGHTS... AND CALIBRATED PRECIPITATION FROM THE 0Z OPERATIONAL GFS AND 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN. 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR NOV 17 - 23 2006: FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD THE GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN DEPICTS AN EASTWARD PROGRESSION AND SLIGHT DEAMPLIFICATION OF THE MAIN CIRCULATION FEATURES BUT IS OTHERWISE LITTLE CHANGED FROM ITS 500-HPA FORECAST FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD. THE BROAD TROUGH OVER THE EAST-CENTRAL CONUS IS PROGGED TO ADVANCE TOWARDS SOUTHEASTERN CANADA AS HEIGHTS SLOWLY RISE OVER THE WEST-CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY. THE OPERATIONAL 0Z GFS IS A LITTLE QUICKER TO RAISE HEIGHTS OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. COMPARED TO THE GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN. THE OPERATIONAL 6Z GFS REMAINS AN OUTLIER AS THE DEEP CLOSED-OFF TROUGH DEPICTED OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD IS FORECAST TO PROGRESS TO THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES DURING THE WEEK 2 PERIOD. HEIGHTS ARE GENERALLY FORECAST TO BE NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL OVER EASTERN CANADA... THE WESTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE CONUS... EXTREME WESTERN ALASKA AND THE ALEUTIANS... WHILE NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CONUS... THE REMAINDER OF ALASKA AND THE GULF OF ALASKA. THE MODELS SHOW FAIR CONTINUITY WITH RESPECT TO THEIR SOLUTIONS FROM YESTERDAY EXCEPT FOR THE OPERATIONAL 6Z GFS WHICH DEPICTS A MUCH DEEPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS IN TODAYS SOLUTION. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE NORMAL OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NEW ENGLAND STATES DUE TO THE ANOMALOUS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW EXPECTED THERE AND OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS AS HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST TO BE ABOVE NORMAL. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST DUE TO BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS PROGGED FOR THAT REGION AND OVER ALASKA DUE TO THE VERY STRONG RIDGE FORECAST WEST OF THE STATE WHICH SUGGESTS STRONGLY ANOMALOUS NORTHERLY FLOW FOR MUCH OF THE REGION. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE NORMAL OVER THE NORTHEAST DUE TO MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE TROUGH FORECAST OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST DUE TO FLOW AHEAD OF THE GULF OF ALASKA TROUGH. BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY OVER THE SOUTHWEST CONUS AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE REGION AND OVER THE WESTERN TWO-THIRDS OF ALASKA DUE TO SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONG RIDGE FORECAST WEST OF THE STATE. THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY HEIGHT PROG CONSISTS OF 20 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 0Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 11...25 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...15 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...AND 40 PERCENT OF TODAY'S GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11. FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD IS NEAR AVERAGE TODAY... 3 ON A SCALE OF 1 TO 5... DUE TO DECENT MODEL AGREEMENT ... OFFSET BY THE DIFFICULTY OF MAKING FORECASTS WITH A RELATIVELY FLAT 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALY PATTERN. THE 8-14 DAY TEMPERATURE PROG IS BASED ON THE KLEIN... NEURAL NET... AND ANALOG SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLENDED HEIGHTS ... THE CPC AUTO FORECAST... THE CDC FORECAST TOOL... 850-HPA BIAS-CORRECTED TEMPERATURES FROM THE 0Z OPERATIONAL GFS... KLEIN AND NEURAL NET PERCENTAGES FROM THE GFS ENSEMBLES AND UNCALIBRATED AND CALIBRATED 2-METER TEMPERATURES FROM THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN. THE 8-14 DAY PRECIPITATION PROG IS BASED ON THE CPC AUTO FORECAST...THE CDC FORECAST TOOL... EMC AND CPC CALIBRATED PRECIPITATION FROM THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS... ANALOG AND NEURAL NET SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLENDED HEIGHTS AND CALIBRATED PRECIPITATION FROM THE 0Z OPERATIONAL GFS AND 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN. FORECASTER: R. SCHECHTER NOTES: OPERATIONAL CHANGE: AS OF JULY 5 2005 SHADED MAPS HAVE REPLACED THE CONTOUR-ONLY MAPS ON THE CPC WEB SITE. THE CONTOURED MAPS ARE STILL AVAILABLE AT THEIR CURRENT FILE NAMES - SO DIRECT-LINKED USERS ARE NOT AFFECTED. AWIPS GRAPHICS ARE ALSO NOT AFFECTED BY THIS CHANGE. AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OTHERWISE - FORECASTS INCORPORATE FORECASTER INPUT. THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION. THE NARRATIVE DESCRIPTION OF THE FORECAST PATTERNS FOR TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION FOR BOTH THE 6-10 OR 8-14 DAY PERIODS HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. THE STATE TABLES FOR BOTH THE 6-10 AND 8-14 DAY PERIODS ARE NOW CONTAINED IN THIS MESSAGE...AVAILABLE AS PMDMRD ON AWIPS. THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1971-2000 BASE PERIOD MEANS FOR TEMPERATURE...PRECIPITATION...AND 500-HPA HEIGHTS AS REFERENCE IN THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS. THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON NOVEMBER 16. NEW NOTE EFFECTIVE MAR 16 2004: THE GLOSSARY FORMERLY FOUND AT THIS LOCATION WILL NO LONGER BE TRANSMITTED AS PART OF THIS MESSAGE. IF YOU WISH TO SEE THE DEFINITIONS OF TERMS USED IN THESE MESSAGES... PLEASE GO TO THE CPC WEB PAGE AT (USE LOWER CASE) HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV AND FOLLOW THE APPROPRIATE LINKS. ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3) FOR THE REGION FROM 20N to 70N LATITUDE AND 175E to 60W LONGITUDE INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 19901110 - 19501103 - 19631123 - 19871112 - 19501122 ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4) FOR THE REGION FROM 20N to 70N LATITUDE AND 175E to 60W LONGITUDE INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 19501122 - 19901110 - 19821022 - 19861028 - 19631116 6 to 10 day Outlook Table OUTLOOK FOR NOV 15 - 19, 2006 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON N A OREGON N A NRN CALIF A A SRN CALIF A B IDAHO N A NEVADA A N W MONTANA N A E MONTANA N N WYOMING N N UTAH A B ARIZONA A B COLORADO N B NEW MEXICO A B N DAKOTA B N S DAKOTA B N NEBRASKA N B KANSAS N B OKLAHOMA N B N TEXAS N N S TEXAS N B W TEXAS N B MINNESOTA B N IOWA B N MISSOURI B N ARKANSAS B N LOUISIANA B N WISCONSIN B N ILLINOIS B A MISSISSIPPI B A MICHIGAN N A INDIANA N A OHIO N A KENTUCKY N A TENNESSEE N A ALABAMA B A NEW YORK A A VERMONT A A NEW HAMP A A MAINE A A MASS A A CONN A A RHODE IS A A PENN A A NEW JERSEY A A W VIRGINIA A A MARYLAND A A DELAWARE A A VIRGINIA A A N CAROLINA A A S CAROLINA N A GEORGIA N A FL PNHDL N A FL PENIN N N AK N SLOPE B N AK ALEUTIAN B B AK WESTERN B B AK INT BSN B N AK S INT B B AK SO COAST B B AK PNHDL B A 8 to 14 day Outlook Table OUTLOOK FOR NOV 17 - 23, 2006 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON N A OREGON N A NRN CALIF A N SRN CALIF A B IDAHO N N NEVADA A N W MONTANA N N E MONTANA N N WYOMING N N UTAH A B ARIZONA A B COLORADO A B NEW MEXICO A B N DAKOTA N N S DAKOTA N B NEBRASKA N B KANSAS A B OKLAHOMA A B N TEXAS A B S TEXAS N B W TEXAS A B MINNESOTA A N IOWA N B MISSOURI N B ARKANSAS A B LOUISIANA N B WISCONSIN A N ILLINOIS N N MISSISSIPPI N N MICHIGAN N N INDIANA N N OHIO N N KENTUCKY N N TENNESSEE N N ALABAMA N N NEW YORK A A VERMONT A A NEW HAMP A A MAINE A A MASS A A CONN A A RHODE IS A A PENN N A NEW JERSEY A A W VIRGINIA N A MARYLAND A A DELAWARE A A VIRGINIA N A N CAROLINA N N S CAROLINA N N GEORGIA B N FL PNHDL B N FL PENIN B A AK N SLOPE B N AK ALEUTIAN B B AK WESTERN B B AK INT BSN B B AK S INT B B AK SO COAST B B AK PNHDL B N LEGEND TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN B - BELOW B - BELOW THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS PMDMRD. $$