PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSIONS FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 300 PM EST MON NOV 06 2006 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK VALID FOR NOV 12 - 16 2006 TODAYS 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN AND YESTERDAYS 12Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE EXPECTED 500-HPA FLOW PATTERN OVER NORTH AMERICA FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD. WEAK RIDGES ARE FORECAST OVER NORTHEAST NEW ENGLAND AND OFF THE U.S. WEST COAST WHILE A STRONGER RIDGE IS FORECAST OVER THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS. MOST OF THE CONUS IS FORECAST TO BE DOMINATED BY A BROAD TROUGH WHILE A SHARPER TROUGH IS PROGGED OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA. ASIDE FROM SOME MINOR AMPLITUDE AND TIMING DIFFERENCES THE OPERATIONAL 0Z AND 6Z GFS SOLUTIONS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS. THE 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN... GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN... CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN AND 12Z OPERATIONAL ECMWF FORECASTS WERE NOT AVAILABLE FOR THE 6-10 DAY FORECAST. 500-HPA HEIGHTS ARE GENERALLY FORECAST TO BE ABOVE NORMAL OVER THE NORTHEAST AND SOUTHWEST CONUS AND THE WESTERN TWO THIRDS OF ALASKA AND BELOW NORMAL OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CONUS AND ALASKA. THE MODELS SHOW GOOD CONTINUITY WITH REPSECT TO THEIR SOLUTIONS FROM YESTERDAY. THE PNA INDEX WHICH RECENTLY HAS BEEN WEAKLY NEGATIVE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN WEAKLY NEGATIVE FOR THE NEXT TWO WEEKS. THE NAO INDEX WHICH RECENTLY HAS TRENDED FROM NEGATIVE TO WEAKLY POSITIVE IS FORECAST TO BE NEAR ZERO THROUGH DAY 10 AND THEN TREND WEAKLY NEGATIVE BY THE END OF WEEK 2...ALTHOUGH THERE IS A LARGE AMOUNT OF SPREAD AMONG THE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS FOR THE LATER TIME PERIODS. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS DUE TO ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS AND ANOMALOUS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. A SMALL AREA OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS ALSO POSSIBLE OVE THE SOUTHWEST CONUS AS HEIGHTS THERE ARE FORECAST TO BE ABOVE NORMAL. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST OVER SOUTHERN ALASKA DUE TO ANOMALOUS NORTHERLY FLOW... AND OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST DUE TO THE BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS FORECAST FOR THAT REGION. ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHERN CONUS DUE TO CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE BROAD TROUGH FORECAST OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS AS HEIGHTS RISE IN THAT AREA... AND OVER MUCH OF ALASKA DUE TO THE STRONG RIDGE FORECAST TO BE CENTERED WEST OF THE STATE. TODAYS OFFICIAL 500-HPA BLEND CONSISTS OF 15 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 0Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 8...10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 6Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 8...25 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...20 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...AND 30 PERCENT OF TODAY'S EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 7. MODEL(S) OF THE DAY: ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD IS ABOVE AVERAGE... 4 ON A SCALE OF 1 TO 5 DUE TO GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT AND FAIR AGREEMENT AMONG THE FORECAST TOOLS. THE 6-10 DAY TEMPERATURE PROG IS BASED ON THE KLEIN... NEURAL NET... AND ANALOG SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLENDED HEIGHTS ... THE CPC AUTO FORECAST... THE CDC FORECAST TOOL... BIAS CORRECTED 850-HPA TEMPERATURES FROM THE 0Z OPERATIONAL GFS... UNCALIBRATED AND CALIBRATED 2-METER TEMPERATURES FROM THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN AND THE KLEIN AND NEURAL NET PERCENTAGES FROM THE GFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLES. THE 6-10 DAY PRECIPITATION PROG IS BASED ON THE CPC AUTO FORECAST...THE CDC FORECAST TOOL... CPC AND EMC CALIBRATED PRECIPITATION PERCENTAGES FROM THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS... ANALOG AND NEURAL NET SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLENDED HEIGHTS... AND CALIBRATED PRECIPITATION FROM THE 0Z OPERATIONAL GFS AND 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN. 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR NOV 14 - 20 2006: FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD THE GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN DEPICTS A SLIGHT EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE MAIN CIRCULATION FEATURES BUT IS OTHERWISE LITTLE CHANGED FROM ITS 500-HPA FORECAST FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD. THE BROAD TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS IS PROGGED TO ADVANCE TO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AS HEIGHTS RISE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY. THE OPERATIONAL 0Z AND 6Z GFS ARE IN BASIC AGREEMENT WITH THE ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS... ALTHOUGH AS USUAL THE OPERATIONAL SOLUTIONS ARE MORE AMPLIFIED WITH THE MAIN CIRCULATION FEATURES. HEIGHTS ARE GENERALLY FORECAST TO BE ABOVE NORMAL OVER NEW ENGLAND... THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS... AND WESTERN ALASKA WHILE BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CONUS AND SOUTHEASTERN ALASKA. THE MODELS ARE GENERALLY QUICKER TO RAISE HEIGHTS OVER THE SOUTHWEST TODAY COMPARED TO THE SOLUTIONS FROM YESTERDAY. THE TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION ANOMALY PATTERNS FOR WEEK 2 ARE EXPECTED TO BE QUITE SIMILAR TO THE ANOMALY PATTERN FORECAST FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD ALTHOUGH THE AREA OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FORECAST OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS DURING THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO EXPAND EASTWARD DURING WEEK 2. THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY HEIGHT PROG CONSISTS OF 15 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 0Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 11...5 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 6Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 11...30 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...25 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...AND 25 PERCENT OF TODAY'S GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11. FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD IS NEAR AVERAGE TODAY... 3 ON A SCALE OF 1 TO 5... DUE TO DECENT MODEL AGREEMENT ... OFFSET BY ONLY FAIR AGREEMENT AMONG THE FORECAST TOOLS. THE 8-14 DAY TEMPERATURE PROG IS BASED ON THE KLEIN... NEURAL NET... AND ANALOG SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLENDED HEIGHTS ... THE CPC AUTO FORECAST... THE CDC FORECAST TOOL... 850-HPA BIAS-CORRECTED TEMPERATURES FROM THE 0Z OPERATIONAL GFS... KLEIN AND NEURAL NET PERCENTAGES FROM THE GFS ENSEMBLES AND UNCALIBRATED AND CALIBRATED 2-METER TEMPERATURES FROM THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN. THE 8-14 DAY PRECIPITATION PROG IS BASED ON THE CPC AUTO FORECAST...THE CDC FORECAST TOOL... EMC AND CPC CALIBRATED PRECIPITATION FROM THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS... ANALOG AND NEURAL NET SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLENDED HEIGHTS AND CALIBRATED PRECIPITATION FROM THE 0Z OPERATIONAL GFS AND 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN. FORECASTER: R. SCHECHTER NOTES: OPERATIONAL CHANGE: AS OF JULY 5 2005 SHADED MAPS HAVE REPLACED THE CONTOUR-ONLY MAPS ON THE CPC WEB SITE. THE CONTOURED MAPS ARE STILL AVAILABLE AT THEIR CURRENT FILE NAMES - SO DIRECT-LINKED USERS ARE NOT AFFECTED. AWIPS GRAPHICS ARE ALSO NOT AFFECTED BY THIS CHANGE. AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OTHERWISE - FORECASTS INCORPORATE FORECASTER INPUT. THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION. THE NARRATIVE DESCRIPTION OF THE FORECAST PATTERNS FOR TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION FOR BOTH THE 6-10 OR 8-14 DAY PERIODS HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. THE STATE TABLES FOR BOTH THE 6-10 AND 8-14 DAY PERIODS ARE NOW CONTAINED IN THIS MESSAGE...AVAILABLE AS PMDMRD ON AWIPS. THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1971-2000 BASE PERIOD MEANS FOR TEMPERATURE...PRECIPITATION...AND 500-HPA HEIGHTS AS REFERENCE IN THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS. THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON NOVEMBER 16. NEW NOTE EFFECTIVE MAR 16 2004: THE GLOSSARY FORMERLY FOUND AT THIS LOCATION WILL NO LONGER BE TRANSMITTED AS PART OF THIS MESSAGE. IF YOU WISH TO SEE THE DEFINITIONS OF TERMS USED IN THESE MESSAGES... PLEASE GO TO THE CPC WEB PAGE AT (USE LOWER CASE) HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV AND FOLLOW THE APPROPRIATE LINKS. ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3) FOR THE REGION FROM 20N to 70N LATITUDE AND 175E to 60W LONGITUDE INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 19731107 - 19691023 - 19921017 - 19631115 - 19861029 ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4) FOR THE REGION FROM 20N to 70N LATITUDE AND 175E to 60W LONGITUDE INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 19731107 - 19691023 - 19731102 - 19921016 - 19821018 6 to 10 day Outlook Table OUTLOOK FOR NOV 12 - 16, 2006 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON B A OREGON N A NRN CALIF N N SRN CALIF A B IDAHO B A NEVADA N A W MONTANA B A E MONTANA B A WYOMING B A UTAH N N ARIZONA N B COLORADO N N NEW MEXICO N B N DAKOTA B N S DAKOTA B N NEBRASKA B N KANSAS N N OKLAHOMA N N N TEXAS N N S TEXAS N B W TEXAS N B MINNESOTA B N IOWA N N MISSOURI N N ARKANSAS N N LOUISIANA N N WISCONSIN N A ILLINOIS N A MISSISSIPPI N N MICHIGAN N A INDIANA N A OHIO A A KENTUCKY A N TENNESSEE N N ALABAMA N N NEW YORK A A VERMONT A A NEW HAMP A A MAINE A A MASS A A CONN A A RHODE IS A A PENN A A NEW JERSEY A A W VIRGINIA A A MARYLAND A A DELAWARE A A VIRGINIA A N N CAROLINA A N S CAROLINA A N GEORGIA A N FL PNHDL N N FL PENIN A A AK N SLOPE N N AK ALEUTIAN B B AK WESTERN B B AK INT BSN B B AK S INT B B AK SO COAST B B AK PNHDL B N 8 to 14 day Outlook Table OUTLOOK FOR NOV 14 - 20, 2006 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON B A OREGON N A NRN CALIF A N SRN CALIF A B IDAHO N A NEVADA A N W MONTANA B A E MONTANA B A WYOMING N N UTAH A N ARIZONA A B COLORADO N B NEW MEXICO A B N DAKOTA B N S DAKOTA N N NEBRASKA N N KANSAS N B OKLAHOMA N B N TEXAS N B S TEXAS A B W TEXAS A B MINNESOTA B N IOWA N N MISSOURI N N ARKANSAS N N LOUISIANA N B WISCONSIN N N ILLINOIS N N MISSISSIPPI N N MICHIGAN N A INDIANA N A OHIO N A KENTUCKY N A TENNESSEE N N ALABAMA N N NEW YORK A A VERMONT A A NEW HAMP A A MAINE A A MASS A A CONN A A RHODE IS A A PENN A A NEW JERSEY A A W VIRGINIA N A MARYLAND A A DELAWARE A N VIRGINIA A A N CAROLINA N N S CAROLINA N N GEORGIA N A FL PNHDL N A FL PENIN N A AK N SLOPE N N AK ALEUTIAN B B AK WESTERN B B AK INT BSN B N AK S INT B B AK SO COAST B B AK PNHDL B N LEGEND TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN B - BELOW B - BELOW THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS PMDMRD. $$